Power Development PlanningPower Development PlanningGovernanceGovernance

and Climate Changeand Climate Change

The recent experiences of ThailandThe recent experiences of Thailand

Suphakit NuntavorakarnSuphakit Nuntavorakarn

Healthy Public Policy Foundation, ThailandHealthy Public Policy Foundation, Thailand

Presenting in “Generating Dialogue” discussion, 7Presenting in “Generating Dialogue” discussion, 7thth December December 20072007

Grand Melia Hotel, Bali, IndonesiaGrand Melia Hotel, Bali, Indonesia

The Electricity Governance Initiative:The Electricity Governance Initiative:The Second Assessment in ThailandThe Second Assessment in Thailand

Power Development Planning in Power Development Planning in Thailand: PDP2007 by Ministry of Thailand: PDP2007 by Ministry of EnergyEnergy

• Demand forecast Demand forecast for the next 15 for the next 15 yearsyears

• Fuel optionsFuel options– Gas, coal, nuclear, Gas, coal, nuclear,

renewables, etc.renewables, etc.

• Least-cost Least-cost planningplanning

• Public hearingPublic hearing

• Decision-makingDecision-making

กำ�� ลั�งกำ�รผลัตใ หม่�ที่��ถู�กำบรรจุ� ใ นแผน PDP2007 (MW)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

L1 B1 H1 L2 B2 H2 L3 B3 H3

SPP Nuclear Gas Coal Gas Turbine Import

Demand forecast:Demand forecast:Less economic growth, but higher demand Less economic growth, but higher demand

forecastforecast!!YearYear Demand forecast April Demand forecast April

20062006Demand forecast Demand forecast

January 2007January 2007

GDP GDP (%)(%)

MWMW Annual Annual GrowthGrowth

GDP GDP (%)(%)

MWMW Annual Annual GrowthGrowth

MWMW %% MWMW %%

20062006 5.05.0 21,9621,9633

4.64.6 21,0621,0644

-- --

20072007 5.55.5 23,4123,4111

1,441,4488

6.56.599

4.84.8 22,5622,5677

1,501,5033

7.147.14

2008-2008-20112011

5.25.2 29,3329,3377

1,471,4755

5.95.966

5.05.0 28,2128,2144

1,411,4122

5.955.95

2012-2012-20162016

5.55.5 38,2438,2411

1,781,7811

5.45.444

5.65.6 37,6337,6377

1,901,9033

6.006.00

2017-2017-20212021

5.55.5 49,3549,3555

2,222,2233

5.25.244

5.65.6 49,2149,2133

2,312,3155

5.515.51

Energy Options:The assumptions on fuel prices of PDP

2007

Notes : (1–3) PTT 31 Jan. 07 55( USD/BBL) : ( 4 ) Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand : 5 5 5 Australian Bureau of Agri. and Res. Economics + Transportation cost 15 USD/Ton : (6) Ux Consulting Company January 2007

Gas: increase 3.6% in 15 year

Lignite: Increase

47%

Imported coal:

Increase 4%

Oil&Nuclear: Same price in the

next 15 year

Energy Options: Increase of the fuel Energy Options: Increase of the fuel costcost

The import price of energy The import price of energy (unit: 1000 Baht/Ton (unit: 1000 Baht/Ton Oil Equi.)Oil Equi.)

FuelFuel 19991999 20052005 Increase Increase ((%)%)

Crude oilCrude oil 4.854.85 15.6115.61 221.9221.9

Natural gasNatural gas 3.153.15 6.916.91 119.6119.6

CoalCoal 1.931.93 2.842.84 47.247.2

Reference: Energy Report of Thailand, Dept. of Alt. Energy Dev. and Energy Conservation

Energy Options: Energy Options: Costs of each optionCosts of each option

Fuel OptionsFuel Options Cost (Baht/kWh)Cost (Baht/kWh)

NuclearNuclear 2.082.08

CoalCoal 2.112.11

Natural gasNatural gas 2.252.25

OilOil ~3.5~3.5

WindWind ~5~5

SolarSolar 1111

Advertisements by Ministry of Energy, Feb.-Apr. 2007

Key Concerns on the nine PDP Key Concerns on the nine PDP OptionsOptions

• But why all But why all renewables are renewables are fixed at only 1,700 fixed at only 1,700 MW in all options?MW in all options?

• Why include Why include nuclear of 4,000 nuclear of 4,000 MW in all options?MW in all options?

• What are the What are the impacts of each impacts of each option?option?

L = Low Growth B = Base Forecast H = High Growth1=“Least-Cost” 2=“Feasible Coal Projects” 3=“LNG + More

import”

กำ�� ลั�งกำ�รผลัตใ หม่�ที่��ถู�กำบรรจุ� ใ นแผน PDP2007 (MW)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

L1 B1 H1 L2 B2 H2 L3 B3 H3

SPP Nuclear Gas Coal Gas Turbine Import

The Public Hearings on The Public Hearings on PDP2007PDP2007

• The Ministry of Energy arranged the The Ministry of Energy arranged the Public Hearing on 19 Feb. 2007 at a hotel Public Hearing on 19 Feb. 2007 at a hotel in Bangkokin Bangkok

• The potentially-affected local people The potentially-affected local people turned up of around 400 persons and the turned up of around 400 persons and the Minister cancel the HearingMinister cancel the Hearing

• MoE arranged another Public Hearing on MoE arranged another Public Hearing on 2 April 2007 in the Thai Army Club with 2 April 2007 in the Thai Army Club with armed soldiers ‘for security reason’!armed soldiers ‘for security reason’!

• NGOs, academics, and the local people NGOs, academics, and the local people boycotted the Hearingboycotted the Hearing

No Consideration on CO2 emission in No Consideration on CO2 emission in PDP2007PDP2007

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

Th

ou

san

d T

on

s

2535 2536 2537 2538 2539 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548

Year

CO2 Emission of Thai Energy Sector 1992-2005

Reference: Energy Report of Thailand, Dept. of Alt. Energy Dev. and Energy Conservation

หมายเหตุ� 1. ใช้�สมมตุ ฐานว่�าตุ�นทุ�นร้�อยละ 124. ของค่�าไฟฟ�ามาจากธุ�ร้ก จสายส�ง 2. ใช้�สมมตุ ฐานว่�าตุ�นทุ�นร้�อยละ 145 ของค่�าไฟฟ�ามาจากธุ�ร้ก จจ าหน�าย 3 . ค่�า CO2 ทุ!" 10 ย#โร้/ตุ%น

4. ค่�า Externality ตุามการ้ศึ'กษา Extern E ของสหภาพย�โร้ป และน ามาปร้%บลดตุามค่�า GDP ตุ�อห%ว่ของไทุย 5. การ้ศึ'กษาของ World Bank 2005 6. ตุามร้ะเบ!ยบ SPP 7. ทุ!"มา : กฟผ. 8 . Cost of liability protection, Journal “Regulation” 2002 – 2003

Options Cost estimation (Baht per kWh)

ผล ตุ ส�ง1 จ าหน�าย2 CO2 3 ผลกร้ะทุบ

สว่ล.อ0"น ๆ 4 ผล

กร้ะทุบ ส%งค่ม

ร้ว่ม

DSM 0.50 – 1.505 - - - - - 0.50 -1.50

Cogeneration(PES > 10%)

2.60 6 - 0.44 0.08 0.71 - 3.83

VSPP(Renewable

energies)

ค่�าไฟฟ�าขายส�ง(~ 3) +Adder

(0.3 – 8)

- 0.44 - 0 – 0.63 0 – ตุ "า 3.3 – 11.0

CCGT 2.25 7 0.37 0.44 0.09 0.79 ตุ "า – ปานกลาง

3.93

Coal 2.11 7 0.37 0.44 0.15 2.76 ส#ง 5.82

Nuclear 2.08 7 0.37 0.44 - 0.15 + 1.008 ส#ง - ส#งมาก 4.04

No consideration of externalities and total No consideration of externalities and total costcost

Who gains from the existing planning Who gains from the existing planning processprocess::The growth of energy companies in Thai Stock The growth of energy companies in Thai Stock MarketMarket

20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006

No. of listed No. of listed companiescompanies

99 1212 1515 1616 2020

Total saleTotal sale((Million BahtMillion Baht))

537537,,106106

674,893674,893 1,061,751,061,7511

1,500,591,500,5944

2,250,162,250,1611

ProfitProfit ( (Million Million BahtBaht))

46,81846,818 64,89364,893 113,884113,884 149,832149,832 176,126176,126

Prelim. ProfitPrelim. Profit ((%)%)

19.019.0 17.717.7 16.516.5 16.316.3 13.913.9

Reference: Thai Stock Market, Key Annual Data

Who loss from the existing planning Who loss from the existing planning process:process:Energy expenses of Thai households 1990-2006Energy expenses of Thai households 1990-2006

ค่�� ใ ช้� จุ��ยด้��นพลั�งง�นต�อปี#แลัะ สั�ด้สั�วนต�อค่�� ใ ช้� จุ��ยที่�'งหม่ด้ของค่ร�วเร*อนไ ที่ย ปี#พ.ศ. 2533-2549

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2533 2535 2537 2539 2541 2543 2545 2547 2549

ปี#

Bah

t p

er

year

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

Perc

en

t o

f to

tal

exp

en

ses

ค่�าใ ช้�จ�ายเก!"ยว่ก%บพล%งงานทุ%2งหมดตุ�อป3

ส%ดส�ว่นของค่�าใ ช้�จ�าย

Reference: National Statistic Office

Alternative Power Development Alternative Power Development PlanningPlanning

• The alternative PDPThe alternative PDP‘20:20 by 2020’‘20:20 by 2020’

• Reform of the Power Reform of the Power Development Planning to Development Planning to promote good governancepromote good governance

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

GWh

แผนกำ-�ซ แผนถู��นหน แผนที่�งเลั*อกำ

Power Generation in 2015 of Each PDP Options

อน�ร�กำษ์0พลั�งง�นพลั�งง�นหม่�นเว�ยนน��เข��พลั�งน�'�น�'�ม่�นถู��นหนกำ-�ซธรรม่ช้�ต

Source: Decharut Sukkumnoed, 2007

Alternative Power Development Alternative Power Development PlanPlan

and its impact assessmentand its impact assessment

Environmental impacts:Environmental impacts: CO2 CO2 emissionemission

Figure 6.1

Greenhouse Gas Emission in Three PDP Options

-

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

year

Million To

ns of C

O2 eq

uilvalen

t

PDP Gas

PDP Coal

PDP Renewables

Source: Decharut Sukkumnoed, 2007

Health impact: Chronic mortality from air Health impact: Chronic mortality from air pollutionpollution

Figure 6.9 Total Chronic Mortality from Air Pollution in Three PDP Options

-

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year

Case

s Gas

Coal

Renewable

Source: Decharut Sukkumnoed, 2007

Economic impact: Externality Economic impact: Externality costscosts

Figure 6.16

The External Costs of Three PDP Options

-

50,000.00

100,000.00

150,000.00

200,000.00

250,000.00

300,000.00

350,000.00

400,000.00

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year

Million TH

B/Ye

ar

PDP Gas

PDP Coal

PDP Renewables

Source: Decharut Sukkumnoed, 2007

Economic impact: Total costsEconomic impact: Total costs

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

ลั��นบ�ที่

แผนก4าซ แผนถ่�านห น แผนทุางเล0อก

แผนPDP แต�ลัะที่�งเลั*อกำ

ภ�พที่��1 ต�นที่�นกำ�รผลัตไฟฟ4�แลัะต�นที่�นสั�งแวด้ลั�อม่ ในแต�ลัะที่�งเลั*อกำในปี# พ. ศ2558

ตุ�นทุ�นส "งแว่ดล�อม

ตุ�นทุ�นค่�าเช้02อเพล ง

ตุ�นทุ�นค่�าปฏิ บ%ตุ การ้

ตุ�นทุ�นค่�าลงทุ�น

Source: Decharut Sukkumnoed, 2007

Alternative Future of Thai Power Alternative Future of Thai Power SectorSector

‘‘20:20 by 2020’20:20 by 2020’• DSM to decrease the forecasted peak DSM to decrease the forecasted peak

demand 20 percent within 2020demand 20 percent within 2020

• Develop decentralized power generation Develop decentralized power generation to be 20 percent of total generation by to be 20 percent of total generation by 2020 and must be achieved by2020 and must be achieved by – Renewable energy, more than 60 percentRenewable energy, more than 60 percent– Community-based power generation, more Community-based power generation, more

than 20 percentthan 20 percent

‘‘20:20 by 2020’ Possible?20:20 by 2020’ Possible?

• DSM to reduce 6,992 MW within 2020DSM to reduce 6,992 MW within 2020– The present potential 2,500 MW within 2011The present potential 2,500 MW within 2011

• Develop decentralized power generation Develop decentralized power generation 6,400 MW by 20206,400 MW by 2020– The commercially-feasible Cogeneration The commercially-feasible Cogeneration

3,000 MW3,000 MW– Renewable energy 3,840 MW, the recent Renewable energy 3,840 MW, the recent

proposals 3,000 MWproposals 3,000 MW– Community-based power generation 1,280 Community-based power generation 1,280

MWMW(Come and hear by yourselves)(Come and hear by yourselves)

Alternative Future of Thai Power SectorAlternative Future of Thai Power Sector

‘20:20 by 2020’‘20:20 by 2020’

• Compare to PDP2007…Compare to PDP2007…

• Save the investment of seven billion USD for Save the investment of seven billion USD for 4,000 MW Nuclear Power Plants4,000 MW Nuclear Power Plants

• Save the investment of 4.5 billion USD for Save the investment of 4.5 billion USD for 2,800 MW Coal Power Plants2,800 MW Coal Power Plants

• Save the investment of 5.4 billion USD for Save the investment of 5.4 billion USD for 9,800 MW Gas Power Plants9,800 MW Gas Power Plants

• Save the fuels import of 2.3 billion USD in 2020Save the fuels import of 2.3 billion USD in 2020

• Reduce CO2 emission 50 million tons Reduce CO2 emission 50 million tons

Integrated planning framework proposed to government and Integrated planning framework proposed to government and societysociety