Potential Socio-Economic

Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change

in the Great Lakes Region

by

George M. Albercook

C E P E S Center for Environmental Policy,

Economics and Science

Credit where Credit is due

• The EPA for funding this research

• J. D. Lindeberg

• David Stead

• Peter Sousounis

• Jeanne Bisanz

• Cast of thousands

History of Change

• Regional Climate Change has already happened!

• It effected ALL aspects of human, plant and animal life!

• There is NO disagreement about its occurrence!

• It made much of the region uninhabitable!

History of Change

• Regional Climate Change has already happened!

• It effected ALL aspects of human, plant and animal life!

• There is NO disagreement about its occurrence!

• It made much of the region uninhabitable!

• Last Ice age

Lake Levels

• The two models show different results

• Lake Michigan-Huron in 2030• CGCM1 Drop by 2 ft. 4 in.

• HadCM2 Up by 0 ft. 2in.

• Lake Michigan-Huron in 2090• CGCM1 Drop by 4 ft. 6 in.

• HadCM2 Up by 0 ft. 2in.

Lake Recreation

• Michigan has more registered boaters than any other state.

• The 8 state region accounts for more than 1/3 of all registered boats in the U.S.

• Marina operators, marine business suppliers manufacturers and hundreds of thousands of boaters and anglers contribute to the regional economy.

• > $ 3 billion in retail marine equipment sales alone. That is more than 1/3 of the trip related expenditures for the entire nation!

Estimated Loss to Michigan Commercial

& Public Great Lakes Marinas

Based on data in “The Impacts of Low Water on Michigan Great Lakes Marinas”

Additional Costs

• 200+ private marinas not accounted for in these numbers.

• Impacts on the inland marinas, often more catastrophic.

• Impacts on marinas in the other Great Lakes states.

Percentage of Public & Commercial Marinas Dredged Due to Low Water

Based on data in “The Impacts of Low Water on Michigan Great Lakes Marinas”

Lake Shipping Activities

• The Great Lakes St. Lawrence Seaway is the longest deep draft waterway in the world!

• A series of 19 locks and 6 canals lift 730 ft. long vessels almost 600 ft above sea level.

• The system includes 15 major ports that ship products around the world.

• Since it opened in 1959 the seaway has carried more than two billion tons of cargo and has accounted for $300 billion in trade.

Less Draft = Less Profit

• For each inch of Draft lost a 1000 ft Freighter must offload 270 tons of cargo. From the Canadian model that corresponds to loses of 7,560 tons or 12.6% by 2030!

• By 2090 it would be 14,600 tons or 24.3%!

• Few businesses can suffer reductions in efficiency of that magnitude and survive for long.

• In the very cost competitive bulk commodities transport industry changes like these would mean the end of shipping in the Great Lakes as we know it.

Alternative Modes

• Rail and Truck compete with water.

• They are less fuel efficient

• 1 Ton of cargo can travel 607 miles on the Great Lakes and consume only 1 gallon of fuel

• That same ton of cargo can only travel 204 miles by rail and only 60 miles by truck.

• There is a similar effect on air emissions.

Source “Environmental Impacts of Modal Shift”

Superior, Superior, WisconsinWisconsin

16,800,000 net tons

Marine: 676 miles, 1000 foot diesel-powered self-unloader. 66,150 tons cargo, 254 round trips

Rail: 807 miles Class II carrier, 1700 trains each withthree locomotives, and 90 110-ton cars

Coal from Superior, Wisconsin to Lake St. Clair, Michigan

Mill

ion

US

Gal

lon

s

To

ns

Coal from Superior, Wisconsin to Lake St. Clair, Michigan

If the Sault Locks Close

• Assume that 1/2 of the >87 million tons of cargo shifted to rail and 1/2 to truck

• 4350 trains each with three Locomotives & 100 100-ton cars would be required

• 1.9 million truck would be required

• Currently there are only 1.9 million trucks operating in the U.S.

Another Alternative: Dredging

• In 1962-1964 the lakes dropped significantly and dredging activity increased dramatically. Prior to 1963 dredging activity averaged 372,000 cubic yards/year After 1963 it jumped to 4,119,000!

• This tenfold increase in dredging is likely to be exceeded in the CGCM1 scenario. With the increase in dredging costs since the 1960’s the annual cost to maintain federal harbors and channels could be $75 -$125 million annually

• Current cost is ~ $6 million.

Source ”The Great Lakes Regional Assessment Report”

Toxins

• Dredging of many channels and harbors results in the release of PCB’s, dioxins and heavy metals - all of which were buried in waterways during previous years’ unregulated industrial activity

• By 2006 only 2 of the current CDFs will have any room for contaminated material

Chicago Diversion

• In 1940 the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal was created by diverting Lake Michigan water to the Mississippi River.

• Water level in the canal is 2ft. 6 in. below Lake Michigan.

• Lake level drops like those derived from the Canadian model would disable the Chicago Diversion.

• Reversing the diversion is serious health risk

• Dredging it is very costly. It is 30 miles long and much of it is rock!!