Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour John Calhoun · (Jan-Oct) 2015 (Jan-Oct) +/- % change ... 26 Source: Conference Board of Canada and Deloitte studies conducted on behalf

Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour John Calhoun

25 November 2015

1

E:/New 2006 Census Profiles - George Fox/2 Base Maps/None





Outline of Presentation

• Demographic Trends

• Current Labour Market

• Major Projects and Investments

• Labour Market Outlook

• Recent Recruitment Activities

• Additional Information

2

Demographic Trends

3

4

New Brunswick’s Population in 1965

Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population & Population Estimates Program

5

New Brunswick’s Population in 2011

Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population & Population Estimates Program

6

Limited Population Growth

Three factors contribute to changes in the population:

As a result of low fertility rates, an aging population and prolonged negative net interprovincial migration, the province is

experiencing limited population growth

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Tables 051-0002, 051-0012 & 051-0013

Births Deaths Migration

7

Demographic Challenges

New Brunswick experienced more deaths than births in 2014

Births

Deaths

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Tables 051-0002 & 051-0013

8


New Brunswick experienced more deaths than births in 2014

2014 1972

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Tables 051-0002 & 051-0013

9

Demographic Challenges Net interprovincial migration has been mostly negative

since 1972

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table 051-0012

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2014 1972

10


• In the last five years we have lost almost 6,200 young people between the age of 18-24 to other provinces

• Many of these young people are fresh out of school and ready to settle into the labour market

• This doesn’t include young people that study abroad or those that reside in New Brunswick but work elsewhere


11

Demographic Challenges • As a result of these factors the province is aging faster than other

provinces. NB’s median age increased from 25 in 1974 to 44.8 in 2015

• New Brunswick's median age of 44.8 is the second highest in the country (only NL is higher)


40.5

45 43.7

44.4 44.8

41.9 40.6

37.7 37

36.2

42

Canada NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC

• According to Statistics Canada’s projections, the Canadian population

will continue to grow over the next 50 years • Canada is expected to grow by about 15.8M people during that time,

20 times the current population of New Brunswick

• Immigration remains the key driver of population growth • New Brunswick’s population represents 2.1% of Canada’s population

• If New Brunswick could attract even a small portion of the national

growth it would change the demographic trajectory of the province

12

Canada’s Population

Current Labour Market

13

Recent Labour Market Performance

14

2014 (Jan-Oct)

2015 (Jan-Oct)

+/- % change

Labour Force 392,890 391,090 -1,800 -0.46%

Employment 354,080 352,020 -2,060 -0.58%

Unemployment 38,830 39,060 +230 +0.59%


Recent Labour Market Performance

2014 (Jan-Oct)

2015 (Jan-Oct)

+/- % change

Unemployment Rate 9.9% 10.0% 0.4 p.p.

Participation Rate 63.2% 62.9% -0.2 p.p.

Employment Rate 56.9% 56.6% -0.5 p.p.

15


16

Plenty of People Looking for Work


• Since the economic crash, the level of unemployment has increased in New Brunswick

• This trend is beginning to reverse, which is expected to continue

year to date

37.1 33.5

28.9

33.6 34.1 36.2 37.4

40.1 40.6 39.1 39.1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

New Brunswick Unemployment (000's)

Regional data from Nov. 2014 – Oct. 2015

Southwest: • 91,300 in labour force • 83,300 employed • 8.7% UR

Southeast: • 116,100 in labour force • 106,100 employed • 8.6% UR

Northeast: • 71,900 in labour force • 60,400 employed • 16.1% UR

Northwest: • 40,400 in labour force • 36,300 employed • 10.1% UR

Central: • 71,700 in labour force • 65,500 employed • 8.6% UR

Piccadilly Potash Project

Regional Labour Markets Provincially: • 391,090 in labour force • 352,020 employed • 10.2% UR

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Tables 282-0076 & 282-0122 17

UR = unemployment rate






Major Projects and Investments

18

• $513M investment into forestry and product operations in NB

• 450 construction jobs in the Saint John region over the next 4 years

• 300 construction jobs in other areas over the next 3 years

(Doaktown, Chipman, St. Leonard, and Kedgwick)

J.D. Irving Forestry Investment

19 Source: various J.D. Irving, Limited Newsroom releases

• 150 woodland jobs around the province

• 25 sawmill jobs in Chipman and St. Leonard

• 35 jobs related to equipment suppliers and other service providers

• 7 lab positions in Sussex

J.D. Irving Forestry Investment

20 Source: various J.D. Irving, Limited Newsroom releases

21

Irving Oil Refinery • $200M investment in a turnaround at its Saint John refinery

• The project is the largest turnaround in the company's history

• The turnaround began in September and will wrap up in November

• The project is expected to generate 3,000 jobs for tradespeople in

addition to the full-time employees already working at the refinery

• Could generate $27M in direct spinoff benefits for Saint John

Source: irvingoil.com

22

Public Service Pay Centre • An $85.3M contract has been awarded for the construction and

20-year lease of a new Public Service Pay Centre in Miramichi

• The Pay Centre is expected to be operational by 2018

• 200 new jobs during the development and construction phases

• 550 permanent employees for the duration of the Pay Centre

Source: federal government

23

BMM testlabs Expansion

• BMM Testlabs is a leading gaming testing laboratory and technical consultancy firm

• The company plans to expand its current operations in Moncton

• The expansion will result in 1,000 permanent jobs over the next

five years

This will create job opportunities for: • Quality assurance testers • Engineers • Computer scientists • Business development managers • Project managers

Source: Province of New Brunswick news release (Sept. 2015)

This project will include: • An open pit mine • A mineral processing plant • A water treatment plant • A tailings storage facility • Ancillary office buildings, shops and

warehouses

Sisson Mining Project

24

Located northwest of Fredericton, near the communities of Napadogan, Juniper, and Stanley

Source: www.sissonpartnership.com

Sisson Mining Project

25

• 500 jobs during construction (2 years)

• 300 permanent jobs once operational (27 years)

• $100M annual operating expenditures

What will be the impact?

Source: www.sissonpartnership.com

• $2.1B investment

Development and Construction Phase (7 yrs)

• $1.6B in GDP growth

• $319M in tax revenue

Operations Phase (20 yrs)

• $1.5B in GDP growth

• $443M in tax revenue

Energy East Pipeline

26 Source: Conference Board of Canada and Deloitte studies conducted on behalf of Trans Canada

Energy

East

Pipeline

Development and Construction Phase (7 yrs)

• 1,894 direct, full-time jobs

• 460 indirect, full-time jobs

Operations Phase (20 yrs)

• 78 direct, full-time jobs

• 78 indirect, full-time jobs

Energy East Pipeline

27 Source: Conference Board of Canada and Deloitte studies conducted on behalf of Trans Canada

Energy

East

Pipeline

Energy

East

Marine

Terminal

• $300M investment

Development and Construction Phase

• 870 Employed at Peak (mid 2017)

• 470 On-average on-site during construction

Operational Phase

• 50 Jobs

(millwrights, instrumentation technicians, electricians, facility technicians)

Energy East Marine Terminal

28 Source: TransCanada submission to the National Energy Board

29

Mactaquac Dam There are three options for the Dam: 1. Refurbish with power generation 2. Refurbish without power generation 3. Decommission

Will inject Billions into the economy and create hundreds of jobs

Source: http://www.mactaquac.ca/

• Moncton Downtown Event Centre ($104M)

• Oxford Frozen Foods ($185M)

• Caribou Mines ($35M)

• Improvements to Route 11 – Shediac to Miramichi ($500M)

• Fertilizer Plant in Saint John ($152M)

• Canaport LNG Export terminal ($2-4B)

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Other Major Projects

Changing Economic Environment

31

International markets are improving, but some are relatively unstable

Lower Canadian Dollar

Lower oil prices

Looking into the Future

32

Canadian Economy: • Improvement is expected overall • Oil exploration and extraction expected

to slow • Consumer and government spending

are expected to increase

New Brunswick Economy: • Modest improvement • Manufacturing and exports are expected

to perform well • Continued major project investments are

a key part of maintaining growth

Labour Market Outlook

33

New Brunswick Occupational Forecasts

34

• Developed in the spring of 2015 • Incorporates some major project activity • Some changes have occurred in the province since the

development of the forecasts, including: • Oil prices & exchange rates • Irving Oil refinery turnaround • BMM testlabs • Delays in some major project investments

• Focus on trends rather than exact values

346.5

360.7

354.8

362.4

370.5

376.9

330

335

340

345

350

355

360

365

370

375

380

Total Employment in New Brunswick (000’s)

35

Employment Prospects Set to Improve

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table 282-0087 & Centre for Spatial Economics (C4SE)

(p) = projected

Note: employment so far this year is 352,020

The Sources of Demand

36

Job Exits (Replacement)

New Growth (Expansion)

Job Opportunities

Retirements and Other Permanent Exits

37

An unprecedented number of people leaving the workforce over the next 10 years

29% of the workforce in 2015

29%

Source: Centre for Spatial Economics (C4SE)

11,400

9,800

10,000

10,200

10,400

10,600

10,800

11,000

11,200

11,400

11,600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Retirements and Other Permanent Exits

38

111,300 Exits Over Next 10 Years

10,800

10,350


Job Exits Over Next 10 Years

39

18,950

21,800

2,850

6,250

6,150

15,250

8,000

13,250

17,200

1,550

Trades, transport & equipment operators

Sales & service

Natural resources, agriculture & related production

Natural & applied sciences

Manufacturing & utilities

Management

Health

Education, law and social, community & government

Business, finance & administration

Art, culture, recreation & sport

Job Exits by Major Occupational Group (2016-2025)


1,250

4,950

750

1,650

800

2,200

250

Trades, transport & equipment operators

Sales & service

Natural & applied sciences

Management

Health

Education, law and social, community & government

Business, finance & administration

Art, culture, recreation & sport

Expansion Demand by Major Occupational Group (2016-2025)

40

Expansion Demand Over Next 10 Years

-1,400

-150

6,500

Manufacturing & utilities

Natural resources, agriculture & related production


Replacement & Expansion Over Next 10 Years

41

Education Level Usually Required for Occupations Replacement Opportunities

Expansion Opportunities

On-the-job training 11,100 1,600

High school education and/or occupation-specific training 30,900 4,200

College education or apprenticeship training 37,800 5,500

University education 31,500 5,400

Total Opportunities 111,300 16,700


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29%

Total Job Opportunities Over Next 10 Years

36,850

43,300

35,100

12,750

Jobs usually requiring auniversity education

Jobs usually requiringcollege education or

apprenticeship training

Jobs usually requiring highschool education

Jobs usually requiring on-the-job training

• 128,000 total job opportunities from 2016-2025 • 90% of these jobs will require at least a high school education • Over 60% will require a post-secondary education

29% 34%

27%

10%


Occupations in High Demand (2016-2025)

43

Usually requiring high school education and/or job-related training:

Retail salespeople Home support workers & housekeepers

Transport truck drivers Heavy equipment operators

Security workers



44

Usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training:

Administrative assistants & officers Carpenters

Licensed practical nurses Electricians

Construction millwrights & industrial mechanics



45

Usually requiring university education:

Financial auditors & accountants Information analysts & consultants

Civil engineers Computer programmers & interactive media developers

Social workers


Recent Recruitment Activities

46

Job Ads by Location

Source for NBjobs.ca: Wanted Analytics (October 1, 2014 – September 30, 2015) 47

8,700

5,950 5,350

1,350 1,200 1,000 850

1,850

Over 30,000 job ads posted on NBjobs.ca in the last year

Over 75%

Under 25%

(82% had a valid location within the ad)

Job Ads by Employer

48 Source for NBjobs.ca: Wanted Analytics (October 1, 2014 – September 30, 2015)


650

550

450

300

300

300

300

250

250

Horizon Health

Walmart

Loblaw Companies Ltd.

Réseau de Santé Vitalité

Rogers Communications Inc.

Shoppers Drug Mart

University of New Brunswick

Sobeys Inc.

Royal Bank of Canada

Toronto Dominion Bank

1,300

• Top 10 employers represent 15% of all ads

The employers that advertise the most online are primarily within the following sectors: • Health • Retail • Information &

Communication Technologies (ICT)

• Higher education

• Financial services

Job Ads by Soft Skills Requested



Soft Skills Job Ads

Problem solving 6,350

Oral and written communication 6,200

Detail oriented 5,750

Customer service oriented 4,050

Critical thinking 3,750

Numeracy 3,550

Marketing 3,000

Microsoft Office 2,850

Teamwork 1,950

Self-motivated 1,800

Job Ads by Hard Skills Requested



Hard Skills Job Ads

Bilingual 7,350

Quality Assurance 800

Technical support 700

Spreadsheet software 650

Database software 600

Quality control 500

Customer relationship management 450

Java 450

Food preparation 400

Linux 350

Job Ads by Credential Requested


High school 46%

College / App. 17%

University degree

37%


• Over half of the jobs advertised online request a post-secondary education

Job Ads by Years of Experience Requested


0 to 2 years 48%

3 to 7 years 39%

8 or more years 13%


• Over half of the jobs advertised online request at least 3 years of experience

Job Ads by Salary Offered


Less than $30,000

48%

$30,000 to $49,999

31%

$50,000 or above 21%


• Nearly half of the jobs advertised online offer at least $30,000 per year

Additional Information

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Online Resources

55

NBjobs.ca

Online Resources

56

Occupational Profiles

Online Resources

57

Sector Profiles

NE

NW

C

SE

SW

Online Resources

Available for the Fredericton, Saint John and Moncton regions, other areas in the province, and all of New Brunswick

58

Hiring Demand Bulletins

Online Resources

Job Bank

59

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Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour

Strategic Services Tel: 506-457-4859 Fax: 506-453-3780 Email: [email protected]

Questions?

mailto:[email protected]






Documents

Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour John Calhoun · (Jan-Oct) 2015 (Jan-Oct) +/- % change ... 26 Source: Conference Board of Canada and Deloitte studies conducted on behalf