Post-Harvest Predictive Post-Harvest Predictive Microbiology & Process Risk Microbiology & Process Risk

ModelsModels

Microbial Food Safety Research UnitEastern Regional Research Center

North Atlantic Area

Risk assessments,food and technology

validations

Applied Research Program

FSISFSIS FDAFDA IndustryIndustry

Data Gaps

Research

Food validations andfeedback about the PMP

Research Scientists & Program

• Rolando FloresRolando Flores

• Tom OscarTom Oscar

• Mark TamplinMark Tamplin

• Laura ZaikaLaura Zaika

• Peg ColemanPeg Coleman

Process risk models

Pathogen fate on poultry

Validation of PMP

Competitive inhibition

Inoculum level & boundaries

Additional Research

Development of models for: pathogen behavior in modified

atmospheres

pathogen behavior under fluctuating

temperatures

pathogen virulence

Pathogen Modeling Program (PMP)Pathogen Modeling Program (PMP)

• PMP effort initiated by Drs. Robert Buchanan and Richard Whiting at the ERRC

• PMP represents a comprehensive set of broth-based models

Organism Temperature °C pH NaCl % or Aw NaNO2 mg/kgAeromonas hydrophila 5.0 - 42.0 5.3 - 7.3 0.5 - 3.5 0 - 150Bacillus cereus 5.0 - 42.0 4.7 - 7.5 0.5 - 5.0 0 - 150Escherichia coli O157:H7 5.0 - 42.0 4.5 - 8.5 0.5 - 5.0 0 - 150Listeria monocytogenes 4.0 - 37.0 4.5 - 7.5 0.5 - 10.5 0 - 150Listeria monocytogenes 4.0 - 37.0 4.5 - 7.5 0.928 - 0.997 0 - 150Salmonella spp. 10.0 - 30.0 5.6 - 6.8 0.5 - 4.5 - Shigella flexneri 10.0 - 37.0 5.0 - 7.5 0.5 - 5.0 0 - 150Staphylococcus aureus 10.0 - 42.0 4.5 - 9.0 0.5 - 12.5 0 - 150Yersinia enterocolitica 5.0 - 42.0 4.5 - 8.5 0.5 - 5.0 0 - 150

Organism Temperature °C pH NaCl % or Aw NaNO2 mg/kg Na2P2O7 %Aeromonas hydrophila 5.0 - 30.0  5.3 - 7.3 0.5 - 3.5 0 - 150 - Bacillus cereus 5.0 - 42.0  5.0 - 9.0 0.5 - 5.0 0 - 150 - Clostridium perfringens 19.0 - 37.0  6.0 - 6.5 1.0 - 3.0  -  0.1 - 0.2Escherichia coli O157:H7 5.0 - 42.0  4.5 - 8.5 0.5 - 5.0 0 - 150 - Listeria monocytogenes 4.0 - 37.0  4.5 - 8.0 0.5 - 5.0 0 - 150 - Listeria monocytogenes 4.0 - 37.0  4.5 - 8.0 0.970 - 0.997 0 - 150 - Shigella flexneri 12.0 - 37.0  5.5 - 7.5 1.5 - 4.0 0 - 150 - Staphylococcus aureus 12.0 - 42.0  5.3 - 9.0 0.5 - 16.5 0 - 150 - 

Individual Growth Models*Aerobic conditions

Aerobic conditions

* Multiple Growth Plots use the lowest and highest values for all organisms. Organisms are eliminated from graph when any condition goes outside modeled range.

Anaerobic conditions

• Current version - 5.1

• Delivered via Internet and CDROM

• ~ 1,000 downloads/year

www.arserrc.gov/mfs/

Pathogen Modeling ProgramPathogen Modeling Program

Advancing the Pathogen Modeling Program

• 5.1 6.0 (summer 2001)• Internet stand-alone version• Models of cumulative lethality• Integration with risk assessment software• Expert system• More efficient Web/CD distribution of data• Enhancing two-way interactions with

industry and FSIS technical staff

Enhanced Pathogen Modeling Program

Expanded Menu Structure

2 New Heat Inactivation Models

2 New Cooling – Growth Models

New Editing Functions Reference Database Improved Help System

•Extended Menu Choices•By Model Type•By Bacterial Species

•L. monocytogenes Heat Inactivation

•E. coli Heat Inactivation

•C. perfringens Cooling-growth

•C. botulinum Cooling-growth

• Online Documentation and Reference Database

•Excel® Type Tables and Charts•Copy/Paste to OLE Applications•Save Scenario Files

•Input Options• °F or °C• Mono- or Biphasic Linear Temperature profiles or •Time vs. Temperature data input.

•Output• Growth Curves and •Temperature profiles.• Tables and Graphs may be copied and pasted into other applications.

Post-Harvest Predictive Post-Harvest Predictive Microbiology & Process Risk Microbiology & Process Risk

ModelsModels

For more informationand to receive a PMP CDROM,

send an email message to:

mtamplin@arserrc.gov