Post-2012 Issues under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol

& Upcoming Issues for COP 13 and

COP/MOP 3______________

ECBI Regional Workshop Tanzania, 2007

M.J. MaceFIELDLondon

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5 agendas for Bali

• COP - Conference of the Parties • COP/MOP - COP serving as the meeting of the

Parties to the Kyoto Protocol• SBSTA - Subsidiary Body on Scientific and

Technical Advice• SBI - Subsidiary Body on Implementation• Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments

for Annex I Parties

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Presentation Outline

• Post-2012 Issues and Challenges– Ad-hoc Working Group on developed country

commitments (AWG)

– Dialogue under the Convention

– Article 9

– Russian Proposal

• Upcoming Issues for COP 13 and COP/MOP 3– SBSTA agenda items

– SBI agenda items (Convention and Protocol)

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Post-2012 Issues and Challenges • Convention - aims to bring developed country GHG

emissions back to 1990 levels toward stabilisation of concentrations

• Kyoto - aims to reduce overall developed country emissions by about 5% below 1990 levels over ‘first commitment period’ 2008-2012

• Kyoto anticipates ‘subsequent’ commitment periods, but does not specify duration or goal

• How to select a level of ambition for Kyoto Parties?• How can the Convention also drive reductions and

address impacts

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• Clearly major reductions are needed – IPCC 1995: stabilisation of CO2 requires an immediate

reduction of 50-70% and further reductions thereafter– IPCC 2001: GHGs need to be reduced to ‘a very small

fraction of current emissions’– IPCC 2007: it is more than 90% likely that mankind’s

activities were the main cause of warming over the last 50 years

• Impacts of climate change already being seen, yet emissions continue to trend upwards

• Global atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased from a pre-industrial (~1750) value of about 280 ppm to 379 ppm in 2005

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Selected Annex I Emission Trends

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Composition of Annex I Trends

FCCC/SBI/2006/26

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Developing Country Contributions?

10BBC News – Climate Change: The Big Emitters, 4 July 2005

Whose emissions are increasing fastest?

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Projected development of GHG emissions around the world (60 years)

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Political challenges

• Some developed country Convention Parties with major emissions have decided not to ratify Kyoto Protocol – and thus are not working within a target (US, Australia)

- US was 36% of industrialised emissions in 1990 • Some developing countries that have ratified

Kyoto do not have targets but have rapidly increasing emissions (e.g., China).

- China is the world’s second largest polluter

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How to address this dynamic?

• Article 3.9 of the Kyoto Protocol required Parties with targets to begin discussion of the second commitment period no later than 7 years before the end of the first commitment period (2005).

• With some countries not active in Kyoto, another process had to be found for engaging these countries.

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Two negotiating processes established to address future commitments

• Ad Hoc Open-ended Working Group (AWG)– Open to all Parties– Considers future commitments for Annex I Parties

• Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing implementation of the Convention

– Open to all Parties– Considers cooperative action to promote existing global

agreement under UNFCCC

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1. Ad Hoc Working Group on Article 3.9

• Tasked to consider further commitments for Annex I Parties beyond 2012 under the KP

• Aims to complete work as early as possible, to ensure no gap between first and second commitment periods

• Has now met four times May 2006, Dec. 2006, May 2007, Aug. 2007; AWG4 will resume at COP/MOP 3

• Discussed written submissions of Parties, oral statements• Considered a process for its future work

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AWG 1: December 2005Chair’s indicative list of topics relevant to work

1. Scientific basis for determining level of ambition for further Annex I commitments

– Scenarios for stabilising GHG concentrations (to guide KP’s role in contributing to ultimate objective of UNFCCC)

– Adverse impacts; costs of impacts and adaptation– Other relevant scientific, technical and socio-economic information

2. Emissions trends, mitigation potential of Annex I Parties

– Costs of impacts and adaptation– Socio-economic drivers, PAMs– Sectoral analyses and impacts on competitiveness

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3. Experience gained in implementing the KP• methodologies, LULUCF, PAMS, flex mechs, demonstrable progress

4. Architecture of further commitments for Annex I Parties • Length of commitment period• review of sectors and sources of emissions• differentiation and burden sharing• feasibility of measures to complement targets, e.g., sectoral approaches• contribution of flexible mechanisms• incentives for development, deployment of technology

5. Legal matters• Scope of amendments to Annex B, elements of KP to be amended or

supplemented to give effect to Annex B amendments• Entry into force of amendments to Annex B, avoidance of gap.

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AWG-2: Bonn 2006In-session workshop

Agreement on work programme for 2007:• Analysis of mitigation potential, effectiveness, efficiency,

costs, benefits, of current and future policies, measures and technologies, taking into account their economic and social consequences, their sectoral dimensions, and the international context in which they are deployed

• Identification of possible ranges of emission reductions by Annex I Parties, through their domestic and international efforts, and analysis of their contribution to the ultimate objective of the Convention

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AWG-3: Nairobi Dec. 2006Roundtable discussion

• On mitigation potential of policies, measures and technologies at the disposal of Annex I Parties.

• AWG notes useful parameters for its work from roundtable:– According to IPCC scenarios analysed to date, global emissions of GHGs

need to be reduced to very low levels, well below half of levels in 2000 by the middle of the 21th century to stabilise concentrations at the lowest level analysed to date.

• AWG noted inputs made by Parties, presenters, observers, highlighting– Urgency with which reductions needed– Mitigation efforts in next decades to determine increase in global mean

temperature over long term (end century)– GHG emissions need to peak in 10-15 years– This calls for a 25-40% reduction by Annex I Parties below 1990 levels

for the period beyond 2012– Mitigation potential could be expanded through use of flex mechs and

sinks

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AWG 4: Vienna Aug. 2007Mitigation potentials and identification of emission

reduction objectives of Annex I Parties• Technical paper (FCCC/TP/2007/1)

– ‘Synthesis of information relevant to the determination of the mitigation potential and to the identification of possible ranges of emission reduction objectives of Annex I Parties’

• AWG Conclusions:– To achieve lowest stabilization level assessed to date by IPCC (450 ppm) would

require Annex I Parties to reduce by 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020.– Global emissions of GHGs need to peak in next 10-15 years– Be reduced to very low levels, ‘well below half of 2000 levels’ by mid 20 th Cent.

– Greater mitigation potential available through wider use of the flex mechs.– Note concern of SIDS and some developing countries that lower stabilisation

concentrations levels below 450 ppm need to be analysed• Views by 9 November 2007 on timetable to complete work• AWG 4 part II - resume in Bali (work on possible ranges)• AWG 5 - June 2008 (possible means to achieve mitigation objectives).

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2. Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to enhance implementation of the

Convention

• 4 workshops, beginning May 2006• Exchange of experiences, strategic approaches for

long-term cooperative action on: (1) advancing development goals in a sustainable way; (2) addressing action on adaptation; (3) realising the full potential of technology; (4) realising the full potential of market-based opportunities.

• Informed by best available scientific information.

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Forum was designed to:

– identify actions to promote research, development and deployment of cleaner technologies;

– identify ways to support voluntary actions by developing countries

– identify ways to promote access by developing countries to climate-friendly technologies and technologies for adaptation.

Open and non-binding discussion, held ‘without prejudice to any future negotiations, commitments, process, framework or mandate under the Convention.’

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Results to date:

• Far ranging discussions, constructive atmosphere• Last of four workshops held in Vienna in August 2007• First Co-facilitators’ report produced for COP-12• Second Report will be produced for COP-13.• Dialogue Working Paper 8:

• ‘Report on analysis of existing and potential investment and financial flows relevant to the development of an effective and appropriate international response to climate change’ - input to 4th workshop

• October 31 – secretariat to convene workshop to build upon report and ideas expressed in Dialogue

• Parties to consider whether/how to continue the Dialogue or to convert it into formal negotiations

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Dialogue Scenario Note: Common elements that may provide direction to the regime

• A long-term goal, consistent with what the science tells us, to provide overall direction to the regime, with short-term reduction objectives for developed countries and strategies for cleaner development paths for developing countries, all reflecting different national circumstances;

• how positive incentives could be provided for actions put forward by developing countries in line with sustainable development policies and objectives;

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• market mechanisms, including the carbon market, and other fiscal and regulatory approaches that can reduce the cost of mitigation, provide incentives for cleaner development and help mobilize the required investment;

• The need to ensure that adaptation is addressed with a sense of urgency and in a comprehensive manner by all Parties, supported by effective regional and international cooperative action;

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• Efforts to stimulate the diffusion, transfer and deployment of existing lower emissions technologies and to promote investment in the development and demonstration of additional technological solutions;

• Mitigation opportunities in specific sectors that would allow countries with varying national circumstances to contribute actively to the effort. e.g., initiatives in sectors such as cement and in reducing emissions from deforestation.

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Second review of the Kyoto Protocol pursuant to its Article 9 (COP/MOP 11)

• Parties are to periodically review the Protocol in light of best available scientific information on climate change and its impacts, and take appropriate action

• First review completed at COP/MOP 2• Second review to take place at COP/MOP 4 (2008)• Submissions of views on how to carry out this review, and

scope and content of this review (due by 17 August, 2007)• Parties to consider scope and content of review, and process

for preparing for review.

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Russian Proposal (COP/MOP 2)

• COP/MOP 2 requested its President to convene a workshop in May 2007 to clarify and explore the implications of the Russian proposal – that appropriate procedures be developed to enable Kyoto Parties to adopt voluntary commitments

• Parties to consider the report (FCCC/KP/CMP/

2007/INF.2)

Upcoming Issues for COP 13 and COP/MOP 3

Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA)

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Subsidiary Body on Implementation (SBI)

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SBSTA Issues• Nairobi Work Programme on impacts, vulnerability and

adaptation to climate change • Technology Transfer• Reducing Emissions from Deforestation• Research and Systematic Observation• Methodological Issues

– GHG Inventories– GHG Data interface– Bunker fuels

• Scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of mitigation

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1. Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to

Climate Change (SBSTA 3) Secretariat to report on progress made in implementing NWP• 6 synthesis reports on submissions made thus far

– Adaptation planning and practices; Methods and tools; Economic diversification; Data and observations; Climate modelling, scenarios and downscaling; Socio-economic information

• 2 workshop Reports– Cairo Workshop – climate related risks and extreme events– Rome Workshop – adaptation planning and preparedness

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• Submission of views of Parties by 21 September on possible need for a group of experts and the role that they could have in the implementation and further development of the Nairobi work programme.

• Compilation of these views will be considered by SBSTA with a view to recommendations, as appropriate.

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2. Technology Transfer (SBSTA 4)

• Draft negotiating text (FCCC/SBSTA/4, annex I)• Difference of opinion on whether a new fund and structure should be

created

• Umbrella Group, EU favour strengthening existing TT framework and EGTT

• G77 and China seeks new body (TDTB) and new fund (MTAF)

• Consider workshop report and paper on good practices in conducting technology needs assessments (TNAs)

• Consider annual report of the EGTT

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3. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation (SBSTA 5)

• Issue first raised in July 2005

• Two workshops held since that time (Rome 2006, Cairns 2007)

• Draft negotiating text (FCCC/SBSTA/2007/4, Annex III)

• Parties invited to submit views by on further steps under the Convention related to reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries: approaches to stimulate action (by 15 August 2007)

• Differences of opinion remain on pilot activities, mobilizing resources, future methodological work

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4. Research and Systematic Observation (SBSTA 6)

• Revision of UNFCCC reporting guidelines on global climate change observing systems (GCOS) (FCCC/CP/1999/7, paras. 101-108)– GCOS Secretariat has submitted a proposal and will submit an

update to this proposal (FCCC/SBSTA/2006/MISC.12 and MISC.26)

• SBSTA to consider progress reports from the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) on development of guidance materials, standards and reporting guidelines for various climate variables in terrestrial domain

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5. Other Issues• Fourth Assessment Report (SBSTA 7)

– In-depth briefing at Subsidiary Bodies Session– Parties to consider how the findings of AR4 could

contribute to ongoing work under the UNFCCC process• Methodological issues under Convention

(SBSTA 8): – Annual Report on Technical review of AI GHG

Inventories– GHG Data Interface– Emissions from fuels used in international aviation and

maritime transport

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Other Issues (cont’d)

• Methodological issues under Kyoto Protocol (SBSTA 9): – Implications of new HCFC-22 facilities seeking to

obtain CERs from destruction of HFC-23– Implications of possible changes to the limit for small-

scale afforestation and reforestation CDM project activities

– Carbon capture and storage (CCS) as CDM project activities

– Good practice guidance for LULUCF activities

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SBI Issues - Convention• Annex I National Communications• Non-Annex I National Communications• Financial Mechanism of the Convention• Article 6 – Education, Training and Public Awareness• Implementation of Article 4.8

– Special needs and concerns of developing country Parties– Matters relating to Least Developed Countries

• Capacity Building under the Convention• Annex I Reporting and Review

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1. National Communications from Developed Countries (SBI 3)

• Status of reporting of Annex I Fourth National Communications

• Status of in-depth reviews of 4NCs• Synthesis Report requested at COP 11

– Inventory data and trends

– Information on other commitments under the Convention (e.g., financial resources, technology transfer, vulnerability, adaptation

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2. National Communications from Developing Countries (SBI 4)

• Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) on Non-Annex I National Communications– SBI to review mandate and terms of reference

• Review CGE recommendations on how to integrate findings of NAPAs into next national communications.

• Consider process on how to consider information contained in developing country national communications

• Financial and technical support for preparation of national communications - consider views of Parties

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3. Financial Mechanism - Convention (SBI 5)

• Every 4 years, there is a review of the Global Environment Facility (the ‘financial mechanism’ for the Convention) – Guidelines for review in 3/CP.4, plus 2 documents:– Report on assessment of funding needed to assist developing countries in

meeting their commitments under the Convention over the next GEF replenishment cycle

– Report on experience of international finance institutions and multilateral financial institutions relevant to addressing future investment and financial needs of developing countries

• Report of the GEF and give Guidance to the GEF– Views and recommendations on funding available in the climate change

focal area– Guidance to the GEF

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4. Article 6 – Education, training and public awareness (SBI 6)

• Parties will consider extension and adaptation of the New Delhi work programme on Article 6 of the Convention, to address gaps and needed identified by Parties.

• Parties will consider written views of Parties that have been made on possible elements of a work programme to succeed the New Delhi WP, with a view to recommending a draft decision on a new or enhanced WP for adoption at COP 13.

• Secretariat will present a survey and evaluation report of the prototype information network clearing house (CCiNet) for consideration at SBI 27.

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5. Implementation of Articles 4.8and 4.9 (SBI 7)

• Article 4.8 addresses actions needed to meet the specific needs and concerns of developing country Parties arising from the adverse effects of climate change and/or the impact of the implementation of response measures,

• includes actions related to funding, insurance and technology transfer• 6 workshops have been held: 3 regional workshops, 1 expert

workshop for small island States, 1 expert workshop on economic diversification, and 1expert workshop on modelling and financial risk management (response measures)

• SBI to continue negotiations on a 2-part decision, addressing – the direct impacts of climate change – the impacts on developing countries of measures taken to reduce

emissions in developed countries.

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Matters related to Least Developed Countries (Article 4.9) (SBI 7b)

• SBI will review – Progress and need for continuation of the Least

Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG)

– Possible new terms of reference for the group.

• SBI also to review– 2006-2007 work programme

– outcome of stocktaking meeting on preparation and implementation of NAPAs

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6. Capacity Building under the Convention (SBI 8)

• SBI to consider a series of reports on activities undertaken to implement the framework on capacity building– Summary of information on activities taken to implement 2/CP.7

and 2/CP.10 (gaps, needs, experiences, lessons learned)– Report from the GEF on its progress in supporting the CB

framework– Synthesis document, on implementation of the framework, based

on the submissions of views, National Capacity Self Assessments, Technology Needs Assessments, NAPAs and submissions

– Report from the expert workshop on monitoring and evaluation of capacity building

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SBI Issues – Kyoto Protocol

• Annex I Party Reporting and Review• Adaptation Fund• Capacity Building under the Kyoto Protocol • Article 3.14 – impact of response measures• International Transactions Log• Amendment of the Kyoto Protocol – Compliance

Procedures and Mechanisms• Other Matters

– Privileges and Immunities

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1. Annex I Reporting and Review (SBI 9, KP)

• Supplementary information provided by Parties to demonstrate compliance with Kyoto obligations (KP Art. 7.2)

• Review of initial reports and supplementary information– Calculation of assigned amount– Demonstration of ability to account for emissions and assigned

amount– 32 of 36 initial reviews of initial reports have been completed

• COP to provide guidance

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2. Adaptation Fund (SBI 10, KP)

• Draft negotiating text and accompanying paper (FCCC/SBI/2007/15, Annexes I and II)– Already addressed:

• eligibility criteria • priority areas • monetarization of CERs

– Unresolved: elements on institutional issues– Consultation 29-30 November in Bali– Difference of opinion on governance structure

• Negotiations to continue

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3. Capacity Building under the Kyoto Protocol (SBI 11, KP)

• Submissions from Parties on actions taken on capacity building in connection with the CDM

• Submission from multi-lateral and bilateral agencies and private sector on their support for CB activities

• Parties to consider:– synthesis report on implications of the framework for

capacity building

– Information from CDM Executive Board on activities relating to regional distribution of CDM project activities.

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4. Matters relating to Article 3.14 (SBI 12, KP)

• Workshop held on ways to minimize the adverse social, environmental and economic impacts on developing country Parties of implementation of policies and measures by Annex I Parties to achieve their quantified emission limitation or reduction commitments

• Related to Article 2.3 under the Convention; • Related to scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of

mitigation under the Convention; • Related to implementation of decision 1/CP.10 (response

measures)• Parties to initiate consideration of workshop report

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5. International Transactions Log (SBI 13, KP)

• Organisational arrangements, activities, resource requirements of the ITL

• Annual Report of the ITL Administrator• Issue: who bears the cost of the ITL? Parties using credits?

The Those with credits Submissions from Parties on actions taken on capacity building in connection with the CDM

• Submission from multi-lateral and bilateral agencies and private sector on their support for CB activities

• Parties to consider:– synthesis report on implications of the framework for capacity

building– Information from CDM Executive Board on activities relating to

regional distribution of CDM project activities.

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6. Amendment of KP to include Procedures and Mechanisms on

Compliance (SBI 14, KP)• In 2005, Saudi Arabia proposed that the KP be

amended to explicitly incorporate the procedures and mechanisms on compliance agreed in Marrakech Accords

• Procedures and mechanisms have already been adopted by the COP/MOP and are already being implemented

• By decision 27/CMP.1, Kyoto Parties decided to commence consideration of this issue with a view to making a decision by COP/MOP 13

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7. Privileges and Immunities for persons serving on constituted bodies (SBI 16, KP) (Other matters)

• Relates to people serving on CDM Executive Board, Compliance Committee, Joint Implementation Supervisory Committee and other bodies

• How to address situations in which legal action might be brought against people serving on these bodies for decisions taken?

• 9/CMP.2 agreed that Executive Secretary would address these matters in the short run, and investigate the possibility of insurance

• Many proposals on the table for ways to address the issue• Disagreement on whether formal action is needed now, or can wait

for post-2012 package of agreements

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Thank you for your attention.

FIELDwww.field.org.uk

mj.mace@field.org.ukTel: +44 20 7388-2117Fax: +44 20 7388-2826

3 Endsleigh StreetLondon WC1H 0DD

United Kingdom