Possible role of Small Modular Reactors under strong energy …€¦ · Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016 EU Long-term low carbon development strategy – until 2050 ♦ EU Low-Carbon

Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016

INPRO Dialogue Forum on Legal and Institutional Issues in the Global Deployment of Small Modular

Reactors 18-21 October 2016

IAEA Headquarters, Vienna, Austria

Possible role of Small Modular Reactors under strong energy

efficiency and renewable energy policies – case study CROATIA

Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić [email protected]

CROATIA University of Zagreb

Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing

1


Why specific interest in SMRs?

♦ Small grid problems

♦ Financing problems

♦ Emission-free, and carbon-free clean energy urgent and immediate - Carbon Free Power

♦  Nuclear energy contributes to the three major energy policy objectives: —  security of supply,

—  decarbonisation of the electricity sector and

—  competitive power prices ♦  Nevertheless, the sector faces a number of challenges

2


Why interest in SMRs?

♦ No problem with grid size

♦ Financing less problematic

♦ BUT

—  Strong energy efficiency policies

—  Strong renewable energy policies

3


EU 2020 climate & energy package

♦ The package sets three key targets: —  20% cut in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990

levels)

—  20% of EU energy from renewables

—  20% improvement in energy efficiency (decrease of final energy consumption in a period by 2020 applying energy efficiency measures).


2030 Energy Strategy

♦ Targets for 2030

—  a 40% cut in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels

—  at least a 27% share of renewable energy consumption

—  at least 27% energy savings compared with the business-as-usual scenario

5


EU Long-term low carbon development strategy – until 2050 ♦  EU Low-Carbon Economy Roadmap

–  The power sector has the biggest potential for cutting emissions. It can almost totally eliminate CO2 emissions by 2050.

–  Electricity will come from renewable sources like wind, solar, water and biomass or other low-emission sources like nuclear power plants or fossil fuel power stations equipped with carbon capture & storage technology. This will also require strong investments in smart grids.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Current policy Power Sector

Residential & Tertiary

Non CO2 Other Sectors

Industry

Transport

Non CO2 Agriculture

Basis of scenarios 80% domestic GHG reduction in 2050

Power sector reduction 85-93%

Efficient pathway: -25% in 2020 -40% in 2030 -60% in 2040

Low-Carbon Economy Roadmap

6


LONG-TERM LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY UNTIL 2050

RECENT New Motivation for Nuclear Power Development


Long-term low carbon development strategy – under prepapration

♦  Long-Term National Strategy and Action Plan for Low-Carbon Development:

—  The main objective of this programme is the development of a long-term national strategy and action plan for low-carbon development to enable country to fulfil its commitment to carbon obligations.

—  Latest 2016. World Energy Resources report released by the World Energy Council (WEC) says nuclear energy: "is increasingly seen as a means to add large scale baseload power generation while limiting the amount of greenhouse gas emissions".

8


Possible measures: ELECTRICITY

1.  Increase energy efficiency in electricity production and consumption

2.  Renewable energy sources (wind, PV, geothermal, biomass & biogas)

3. Croatian Nuclear Energy Program - CRONEP

4.  Additional utilization of hydro potential

5.  Thermal power plants with CSS

9


CROATIA Long-term low carbon development strategy to 2050

♦  Optimization of power sector development until year 2050 to limit emission of CO2

♦  Power sector modelled in PLEXOS programme ♦  Hourly chronological model for demand and

production ♦  Different hydrological conditions (average, dry) ♦  Horizon year 2070 ♦  Wind and solar production base on real cases

♦ Based on Energy Efficiency Programme and Action Plan for RES

Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016 11

0

5000

10000

15000

S-10-2: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Load GWh

Average increase per year = 0.44%

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CO2 price €/t

2025 – 25 €/t

2030 – 35 €/t

2040 – 78 €/t

2050 – 100 €/t


Base and Nuclear forced scenario

♦ Moderate transition of electricity consumption

♦ CO2 100 €/t in year 2050

♦ Feed-in tariffs until year 2030

♦ Option 0: NPP 1000 MW candidate

♦ Option 0a: NPP 1000 MW forced from 2035


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

S-10-2: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Thou

sand

s Total install capacity MW

NE TE Plin TE Plin CCS TE Ugljen TE Ugljen CCS TE LU HE VE SE Ostali OIE

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

S-11: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Thou

sand

s Total install capacity MW – forced 1000 MW NPP

NE TE Plin TE Plin CCS TE Ugljen TE Ugljen CCS TE LU HE VE SE Ostali OIE

NE1000MWin2035

PV

PV

Wind

HE

Gas

NPP

Wind

HE Gas Coal

9514 MW

12939 MW

NPP

Option 0a Forced NPP

Option 0 NO NPP in

Optimal solution


0

10

20

30

40

50

S-11: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

x 10

0000

Emission CO2 t

Plin Plin CCS Ugljen Ugljen CCS LU Top. kotlovi Otpad

NE1000MWin2035

0

10

20

30

40

50

S-10-2: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

x 10

0000

Emission CO2 t

Plin Plin CCS Ugljen Ugljen CCS LU Top. kotlovi Otpad

Gas

Gas

Coal

Coal

Option 0a

Option 0


43 51 55 58

64 67 68 69 72 74 75 77 79 82 77 76 74 72 69 67

84 81 79 77 73 72 70 69 68 67 69 68 67 68 70 67

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

S-11: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

LCOE €/MWh

43 51 55 58

64 67 69 71 74 76 78 81 84 87 83 82 81 79 77 76 74 73 74 74 72 72 72 71

66 71 73 72 73 72 71 68

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

S-10-2: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

LCOE €/MWh

NE1000MWin2035Option 0a

Option 0


Long-term low carbon development strategy – SUSTAINABLE OPTION ♦  It is NEED to rethink country’s nuclear power

strategy - The need to position nuclear in context of wider energy and low carbon policy

—  Low demand increase

—  Economy of NPP & COMPETITIVENES ON EU ELECTRICITY MARKET

—  Load-following possibilities with nuclear plants – Can NPP and renewables be friends?

♦  increasing penetration of renewables, especially wind generation, have dramatically changed the economics and realities of grid management in ways that now encourage some level of load-following capabilities for historically baseload plants, including nuclear.

16


Possible solution SMR - NuScale?

♦  A NuScale Power Module (NPM) includes the reactor vessel, steam generators, pressurizer and containment in an integral package that eliminates reactor coolant pumps and large bore piping (no LB-LOCA).

♦  Each NPM is 50 MW (gross) and factory built for easy transport and installation.

♦  Each NPM has its own skid-mounted steam turbine-generator and condenser.

♦  Each NPM is installed below- grade in a seismically robust, steel-lined, concrete pool.

♦  Reduced construction time: 51 months from mobilization to mechanical completion; 28.5 month from first safety concrete to mechanical completion.

♦  NPMs can be incrementally added to match load growth - up to 12 NPMs for 600 MW total output.


Options for SMRs

♦  Option 1: NPP 50 MW Operation possibilities from 2035. With the possibility of building one per year

♦  Option 2: NPP 50 MW Operation possibilities from 2035. With the possibility of building two per year

♦  Option 3: NPP 50 MW Operation possibilities from 2030. With the possibility of building one per year

♦  Option 4: NPP 50 MW Operation possibilities from 2030. With the possibility of building two per year

♦  Option 5: NPP 1000 MW investment as options with 1250.00 EUR/kW

18


Total install capacity MW – Option 1 & 2 until 2070

19

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Thou

sand

s Total installed capacity MW Option 1

Ostali OIE

SE

VE

HE

TE LU

TE Ugljen

TE Plin

NE

In 2070 13089 MW

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Thou

sand


Ostali OIE

SE

VE

HE

TE LU

TE Ugljen

TE Plin

NE

In 2070 12869 MW


Total install capacity MW – Option 3 & 4 until 2070

20

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Thou

sand


Ostali OIE

SE

VE

HE

TE LU

TE Ugljen

TE Plin

NE

In 2070 12619 MW

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Thou

sand


Ostali OIE

SE

VE

HE

TE LU

TE Ugljen

TE Plin

NE

In 2070 12639 MW


New NPP install capacity MW – Option 1 & 2 until 2070

21

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

1000 1100 1200

NEW NPP installed capacity MW Option 1

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

1000 1100 1200



New NPP install capacity MW – Option 3 & 4 until 2070

22

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059 2061 2063 2065 2067 2069


0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059 2061 2063 2065 2067 2069



Total RES install capacity MW – Option 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

23

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2015

20

16

2017

20

18

2019

20

20

2021

20

22

2023

20

24

2025

20

26

2027

20

28

2029

20

30

2031

20

32

2033

20

34

2035

20

36

2037

20

38

2039

20

40

2041

20

42

2043

20

44

2045

20

46

2047

20

48

2049

20

50

2051

20

52

2053

20

54

2055

20

56

2057

20

58

2059

20

60

2061

20

62

2063

20

64

2065

20

66

2067

20

68

2069

20

70

Opcija 1 Opcija 2 Opcija 3 Opcija 4 Opcija 5


RES in Feed in MW – Option 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

24

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Thou

sand

s

RES in Feed in MW

VE SE Ostali OIE


Structure of electricity generation GWh – Option 1 & 2

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Thou

sand

s

Total generation GWh Option 1

Ostali OIE SE VE HE TE LU TE Ugljen TE Plin NE

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Thou

sand

s Total generation GWh Option 2

Ostali OIE SE VE HE TE LU TE Ugljen TE Plin NE


Structure of electricity generation GWh – Option 3 & 4

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Thou

sand


Ostali OIE SE

VE

HE

TE LU

TE Ugljen

TE Plin

NE

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Thou

sand


Ostali OIE

SE

VE

HE

TE LU

TE Ugljen

TE Plin

NE


Capacity factor different technologies Option 1 & 2

27

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Technology cap. fac. Option 1

NE

TE Plin

TE Ugljen

TE LU

HE

VE

SE

Ostali OIE

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1


NE

TE Plin

TE Ugljen

TE LU

HE

VE

SE

Ostali OIE


Capacity factor different technologies Option 3 & 4

28

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1


NE

TE Plin

TE Ugljen

TE LU

HE

VE

SE

Ostali OIE

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1


NE

TE Plin

TE Ugljen

TE LU

HE

VE

SE

Ostali OIE


Average cap. factor for new NPPs – Option 1 & 2

29

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

New NPPs cap. fac. Option 1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8


Average= 42%

Average= 42%


Average cap. factor for new NPPs – Option 3 & 4,

30

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


New NPPs

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1


Average= 44%

Average= 38%


Emission CO2 Mt – Option 1 & 2

31

0

1

2

3

4

5

Mill

ions

CO2 EMISSIONS t Option 1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Mill

ions


Average= 1.39

Average= 1.35


Emission CO2 Mt – Option 3 & 4

32

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Mill

ions


0

1

2

3

4

5

Mill

ions


Average= 1.28

Average= 1.36


Total emission CO2 t – Option 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

33

78,087,290.02

75,586,184.90 76,163,734.53

71,686,196.26 72,303,274.89

68,000,000

70,000,000

72,000,000

74,000,000

76,000,000

78,000,000

80,000,000



LCOE €/MWh – Option 1 & 2

34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 LCOE €/MWh

Option 1

Average= 62.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2015

20

16

2017

20

18

2019

20

20

2021

20

22

2023

20

24

2025

20

26

2027

20

28

2029

20

30

2031

20

32

2033

20

34

2035

20

36

2037

20

38

2039

20

40

2041

20

42

2043

20

44

2045

20

46

2047

20

48

2049

20

50

2051

20

52

2053

20

54

2055

20

56

2057

20

58

2059

20

60

2061

20

62

2063

20

64

2065

20

66

2067

20

68

2069

20

70

LCOE €/MWh Option 2

Average= 63.08


LCOE €/MWh – Option 3 & 4

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 LCOE €/MWh

Option 3

LCOE

Average= 64.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 LCOE €/MWh Option 4

Average= 63.8


LCOE €/MWh – Option 5

36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059 2061 2063 2065 2067 2069

LCOE €/MWh Option 5

Average= 63.8

Only in 2034 one NPP 1000 MW


LCOE €/MWh – Option 1,2, 3, 4, 5

37

62.6

63.0

64.4

63.8 63.8

61.5

62.0

62.5

63.0

63.5

64.0

64.5

65.0



Average cap. factor for new NPPs – Option 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

38

42% 42% 44%

38%

34%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%



VISION ON NATIONAL PROSPECTS FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY SIZE AND GROWTH

39


SMRs ♦  Need to improve the economic of SMR –

competitiveness (investment costs < 2500 EUR/kW)

♦ Enable new market-based investment ♦ Need for additional revenue not only for

electricity (kWh) ♦ Additional payments

—  Capacity payment —  Load following payment

♦ Ancillary services payments —  Secondary reserve —  Tertiary reserve —  Compensation for grid losses


SMRs

♦ How to finance modular NPP?

—  Develop model for financing and income based on energy and ancillary services

—  How to evaluate long-term benefits?

♦  Load-following possibilities with nuclear plants

—  Need for detailed modelling and analysing of power plant operation (on minutes time schedule) and detail data for ramp rate (up & down) & start-up costs.


Documents

Possible role of Small Modular Reactors under strong energy …€¦ · Tomsic:13th INPRO Dialogue Forum, 2016 EU Long-term low carbon development strategy – until 2050 ♦ EU Low-Carbon