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Portuguese Real EstateInvestment Survey – Outlook 2019Portugal in the real estate investment route
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 2Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
As the end of 2019 approaches, we launch the Outlook edition of the Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey, with the intention to compile and assess the Selected Panel’s views on the market during the year of 2019.
Our purpose is to convey a comprehensive depiction of the main investment trends in the Portuguese real estate market throughout the year.
We hope to continuously contribute with current and valuable tools to improve the growing knowledge base within the real estate industry in Portugal.
We are at your entire disposal to discuss any relevant question.
Carefully,
Jorge Marrão
Jorge Sousa Marrão
Partner
Real Estate Leader
Preface
2Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A.
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A.
2019 Outlook
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 4Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
Outlook 2019Portugal
The Portuguese real estate market has maintained a strong position, with the residential, hotel and office sectors at the forefront of investor attractiveness.
In 2019, the Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey panel of participants have expressed a positive expectation on the sustainability of the market, attributing it a strong investment potential. Globally, signs are positive: stability or even growth in transactions, and stable profitability rates.
Go deeper into the main trends of 2019 in the following pages.
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 5Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
2019 Outlook
Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey
KEY MESSAGES
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Throughout 2019, real estate players were more
keen to invest in Value added assets, despite
the special emphasis on Opportunist deals at
the end of the year.
REAL ESTATE MARKET
Globally, during 2019, transaction volume and
prices were expected to remain stable, with some
increases in the industrial and hotel sectors.
Significant stability in profitability rates was also
expected, specially by the end of the year.
DIVESTMENT STRATEGY
Core assets and Opportunistic deals were the
main target of further divestment by real estate
players in 2019.
REAL ESTATE STRATEGY FOR 2019
Overall, throughout 2019, the investment
strategy remained the main choice of players in
the real estate industry.
5Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A.
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 6Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
2019 Outlook [1/3]
Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey
REAL ESTATE STRATEGY IN 2019
DivestmentInvestment None of the above
1st QUARTER
29%
57%
14%
4th QUARTER
17%
75%
8%
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 7Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
2019 Outlook [2/3]
Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey
VALUE OF ACQUISITIONS MADE IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS
MORE THAN 50M€ FROM 25M€ TO 50M€ UP TO 25M€ NO ACQUISITIONS WERE MADE
IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS
1st Q
29% 21%50%0%
25%9% 33%33%
4th Q
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 8Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
2019 Outlook [3/3]
Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey
VALUE OF DISPOSALS MADE IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS
MORE THAN 50M€ FROM 25M€ TO 50M€ UP TO 25M€ NO DISPOSALS WERE MADE IN
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
1st Q
14% 14%
0%50% 25%25%
36% 36%
4th Q
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A.
Investment strategy
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 10Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
4th
Q
2019 Outlook | Investment strategy [1/4]
Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey
INVESTMENT STRATEGY EVOLUTION¹
INVESTMENT STRATEGY1
stQ
PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT FORECAST
1st Q
29%
43%
28%
Increase by more than 10% Increase by more than 5% Not applicable
4th Q
17%
58%
25%
1Multiple choice question
Value Added Core
Opportunistic deals Not applicable
54%
58%
8%
58%
31%33%
23%
0%
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 11Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
4th
Q
1stQ
57%
75%
43%
50%50%
25%29%
67%
14%
25%21%
12%
2019 Outlook | Investment strategy [2/4]
Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey
PREFERRED INVESTMENT SECTORS¹
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
MAIN INVESTMENT FUNDERS¹
1st Q 50% 36% 36% 29% 21% 14%
4th Q 8%25%25%50%58%75%
Offices Hotels Retail Industrial/ logistics
OtherResidential
Pension funds
Funds of fundsBanks
Sovereign funds
Insurance companies
Other
1Multiple choice question
Offices OtherHotelsResidential Retail Industrial/ logistics
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 12Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
75%
17%
4th Q
4th Q
1st Q
79%
1st Q
50%
1st Q
7%
2019 Outlook | Investment strategy [3/4]
Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
SOURCE OF FUNDING¹
NORTH AMERICA
SOUTH AMERICA
EUROPE64%
0%
1st Q
1st Q
4th Q
83%
ASIA
4th Q
33%
MIDDLE EAST
4th Q
8%
1Multiple choice question
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 13Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
1stQ
1stQ
4th
Q
7%8%
86%
67%
7%
25%
4th
Q
2019 Outlook | Investment strategy [4/4]
Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey
EASINESS OF FUND RAISING
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
LENGHT OF THE REAL ESTATE ASSET’S ACQUISITION PROCESS
NeutralEasy
Difficult
From 6 to 12 monthsUp to 3 months
From 3 to 6 months
14%
25%
43%
33%
43% 42%
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A.
Divestmentstrategy
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 15Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
4th
Q
1stQ
2019 Outlook | Divestment strategy [1/4]
Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey
DIVESTMENT STRATEGY EVOLUTION¹
DIVESTMENT STRATEGY
PORTFOLIO DIVESTMENT FORECAST
1st Q
29%
29%
42%
4th Q
33%
33%
34%8% 17%
23%
42%
46%
42%
38%
17%
Increase by more than 10% Increase by more than 5% Not applicable
1Multiple choice question
Value Added Core
Opportunistic deals Not applicable
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 16Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
4th
Q
1stQ
2019 Outlook | Divestment strategy [2/4]
Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey
PREFERRED DIVESTMENT SECTORS¹
DIVESTMENT STRATEGY
MAIN REAL ESTATE INVESTORS¹
1st Q 29% 29% 29% 21% 14% -
4th Q -8%17%25%33%50%
7%
33%
64%
42%
50%
67%
43%42%
7% 0%
29%
42%
Offices
Hotels
RetailIndustrial/ logistics
OtherResidential
1Multiple choice question
Pension funds
Funds of fundsBanks
Sovereign funds
Insurance companies
Other
Hotels
OfficesRetail Industrial/ logistics
Other Residential
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 17Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
71%
7%
1st Q
1st Q
67%
25%
4th Q
4th Q
1st Q
86%
1st Q
43%
1st Q
7%
4th Q
92%
4th Q
33%
4th Q
25%
2019 Outlook | Divestment strategy [3/4]
Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey
DIVESTMENT STRATEGY
SOURCE OF FINANCING¹
NORTH AMERICA
SOUTH AMERICA
EUROPE
ASIA
MIDDLE EAST
1Multiple choice question
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 18Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
1stQ
1stQ
4th
Q
4th
Q
2019 Outlook | Divestment strategy [4/4]
Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey
EASINESS OF INVESTORS GATHERING
DIVESTMENT STRATEGY
LENGHT OF THE REAL ESTATE ASSET’S DISPOSAL PROCESS
Very Difficult
7%
17%
79%
58%
14%17%
0%
8%
From 6 to 12 monthsUp to 3 months
From 3 to 6 months More than 12 months
NeutralEasy
Difficult
7%
0%
21%
16%
43% 42%
29% 42%
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A.
Real estate market in Portugal
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 20Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
1stQ
4th
Q
1stQ
4th
Q
1stQ
4th
Q
2019 Outlook | Real estate market in Portugal [1/2]
Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey
VOLUME AND SALES PRICE FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS BY SECTOR
INDUSTRIAL HOTEL
Increase Slight decreaseSlight increase DecreaseSimilarIncrease Slight decreaseSlight increase DecreaseSimilar
1stQ
4th
Q
RESIDENTIAL RETAIL/
SERVICES
Increase Slight decreaseSlight increase DecreaseSimilar Increase Slight decreaseSlight increase DecreaseSimilar
29% 33%
50% 33%
21%34%
7%
14%
8%
50%59%
22% 33%
7%
7% 8%
50%33%
14% 42%
29%17%
8%
50% 33%
43% 59%
7%
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 21Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
1stQ
4th
Q
1stQ
4th
Q
1stQ
4th
Q
1stQ
4th
Q
RESIDENTIAL RETAIL/
SERVICES
2019 Outlook | Real estate market in Portugal [2/2]
Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey
PROFITABILITY RATES FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS BY SECTOR
HOTELINDUSTRIAL
43%33%
50%59%
7% 8%
36%
57%
100%
7%
7%
28%25%
36% 67%
29%
8%
36% 33%
36% 34%
21% 33%
7%
Increase Slight decreaseSlight increase DecreaseSimilar Increase Slight decreaseSlight increase DecreaseSimilar
Increase Slight decreaseSlight increase SimilarIncrease Slight decreaseSlight increase DecreaseSimilar Decrease
22Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019
Contacts
Jorge Sousa Marrão
Partner
Real Estate LeaderMobile +(351) 963 902 674
Inês de Cintra Costa
Senior Manager
Real Estate – Financial AdvisoryMobile +(351) 962 103 923
Ricardo Reis
Partner
Real Estate - TaxMobile +(351) 964 736 261
Diogo Pires
Senior Manager
Real Estate – TaxMobile +(351) 964 837 258
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A.
© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A.
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