Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
Estimate of CO2 Marginal abatement costs for Portugal using the TIMES_PT model
Environmental Sciences and Engineering DepartmentNew University of Lisbon
Portugal
Sofia Simões, João Cleto, Patrícia Fortes, Júlia Seixas
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
Implementation of TIMES_PT
NEEDS
National research projectQuantifying interactions between energy and
environment policy instrumentshttp://air.dcea.fct.unl.pt/projects/e2pol/
E2POL
EU research projectEvaluation of total costs and benefits of energy policies and future energy systems
http://www.needs-project.org/nf2.asp
TIMES_PT
Implementation of TIMES for Portugal: 2000-2030 (2050)
NEEDS
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
TIMES_PT - main assumptions
Policies in place
Nuclear politically unacceptable
Min. electricity generated from gas combined cycle (existing & new) corresponding to at least 1100 MW in 2010-2030, due for investments already made in supply infrastructure
No new Coal Power Plants before 2015 & no increase in coal in final sectors; new coal has CCS
CO2 storage constant and up to 5000 Gg – approx. 6% of expected national emissions in 2010
Min. use of Municipal Waste & Wood Waste for electricity following waste and forestry policies
Min. 1.1 MW wind onshore in 2005 replicating effects of existing feed-in-tariffs
Biofuel targets for 2010 (5.75% of diesel and gasoline)
Min. 39% of the electricity consumed in 2010 is from renewable sources
ISP (energy carriers tax) and VAT over energy carriers
80% of the carbon sinks negotiated under the Kyoto Protocol
Calibration assumptions• Max CHP penetration in industry – up to 50% of ind. electricity consumed in 2030• Max natural gas penetration of 85%• Inertia factors in residential and commercial sectors• Limits on electricity imports (+255% than 2000) and exports (+121% than 2000)
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
CO2 Marginal abatement costs curve (I)
2030
0255075
100125150175200225250275300
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000
Abated CO2 (t)
€2000
/tC
O2
Kyoto+20%
+10% 0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
2020
0255075
100125150175200225250275300
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000Abated CO2 (t)
€ 200
0/tC
O2
Kyoto
+10% 0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
+20%
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
CO2 Marginal abatement costs curve (II)
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
-140% -120% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%% Reduction / 1990
€200
0/tC
O2
2030
2020
113% Nat. Estimates - High Reference Scenario
100% Nat. Estimates Low Reference Scenario
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
Primary energy
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Kyoto 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Kyoto 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
2000 2020 2030
PJ
Coal Petroleum products Natural gas Renewables Net Electricity Import
12%
14%
16%
19%
22% 23%27%
30%
17%
17%
21% 22% 24%
29%
33%
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
CO2 abatement compared to Kyoto scenario
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
2020 2030
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
Re
du
ctio
n (
Gg
CO
2)
Agriculture Commercial Electricity Industry Residential Supply Transports
99%
61%
28%
57%
31%
42%
45%
15%
12%
45%
35%
47%
30%78% 33%
44%
18%
40%
47%
16%
19%
18%
42%
13%
44%
11%
32%
27%
22%
18%
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
Some indicators
CO2 per capita 2000 2010 2020 2000-2010 2010-2020
Kyoto scenario (+27%)6.5
6.3 6.2t CO2/inhab
-3% -3%
Other scen. (+20% to -30%) 6.2-6.3 5.7-3.4 -3% to -4% -10% to -46%
CO2 / GDP 2000 2010 2020 2000-2010 2010-2020
Kyoto scenario (+27%)541
413 261t CO2/M€
-24% -23%
Other scen. (+20% to -30%) 412-415 142-238 -23 to -24% -29% to -57%
2000 2010 2020
487 Gg/GWh 391-407 Gg/GWh 311-94 Gg/GWh
143 Gg/Mpkm 128 Gg/Mpkm 116-87 Gg/Mpkm
235 Gg/Mtkm 240 Gg/Mtkm 267-240 Gg/Mtkm
525 Gg/Mt glass 389-386 Gg/Mt glass 308-225 Gg/Mt glass
804 Gg/Mt cement 819-805 Gg/Mt cement 818-504 Gg/Mt cement
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
http://air.dcea.fct.unl.pt/projects/e2pol/
