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Estimation of Earthquake-Induced
Losses for Container PortsAlan Erera, Lindsay M. Ivey, and Glenn
J. Rix
Georgia Institute of Technology
Aykagan Ak
Manhattan Associates
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Operating Level Earthquake (OLE)
72-year return period Shall not result in significant
structural
damage
Repairs shall not interrupt wharfoperations
Contingency Level Earthquake (CLE)
475-year return period
May result in controlled inelastic structuralbehavior
Temporary loss of operations shall berestored within an
acceptable period oftime
Port of Los Angeles Seismic Code for Port Structures
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Hazard Model Response Model
Damage Model Loss Model
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Wharf Configurations
Designed in 1967 Vertical and batter piles
Hydraulic fill
Designed in 1972
Vertical and batter piles
Separate land-side crane rail
Hydraulic fill
Designed in 1980 Vertical piles
Separate land-side crane rail
Rock dike
Designed in 1999
Vertical piles
Soil improvement
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Embankment
Response
WharfResponse
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Assessment Broken Pile
Repair Method Replace with new pile adjacent to damaged
pile.
Repair Estimate Work Item Cost Time
Furnish 90 ft by 24-in. piles
Setup in casting yard $10,600 30 days*
Cast pile $6,800 14 daysDelivery $2,200 1 day
Cut hole in deck $8,500 2 days
Remove and replace rip-rap $5,300 2 days
Mobilize pile hammer $21,400 14 days*
Drive pile $12,800 1 day
Place and strip forms $6,900 3 days
Splice rebar and add new rebar $5,900 2 days
Repair deck and cure $2,100 7 days
Total $82,500 60 days
* Concurrent itemsFor 2-3 broken piles, add $51,000 per pile and
2 days. For 4 or more
broken piles, add $45,00 per pile and assume that 4 piles can be
drivenper day. Contingencies not included in repair costs.
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t = 0 days
t = 90 days
t = 120 days
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Case 1
Vessel Acceptance 100%
Vessels Delayed 78%
Average Delay (hrs.) 24.3
Vessels Tardy 40%
Average Tardiness (hrs.) 12.5
Throughput Loss 0%
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Case 1 2
Vessel Acceptance 100% 85%
Vessels Delayed 78% 24%
Average Delay (hrs.) 24.3 1.5
Vessels Tardy 40% 0%
Average Tardiness (hrs.) 12.5 0
Throughput Loss 0% 15%
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Goes beyond risk assessment andanalysis by combining emphasis
onwhat decisions are made with
emphasis on how decisions are madeand by whom and when
Allows one to include the institutional,
political, regulatory, and socioeconomicfactors that affect
capital investmentdecision making
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Acknowledgements
National Science Foundation under GrantsCMS-0530478 (NEES
Research) and CMS-0402490 (NEES Operations)
UC Davis, University of Texas, University atBuffalo, and
University of Illinois NEESEquipment Sites
Paul Somerville and Rob Graves, URSCorporation; Nicolas Luco,
U.S. GeologicalSurvey; PEER Ground Motion Selection and
Modification Working Group; SCEC SeismicHazards and Risk
Analysis Focus Group
