Population Trends Population of the United States by Age and Sex, 1900 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1900

Population Trends

Population of the United States Population of the United States by Age and Sex, 1900by Age and Sex, 1900

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1900.

7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

Population Trends

Population of the United States Population of the United States by Age and Sex, 2000 & 1900by Age and Sex, 2000 & 1900

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1900 and 2000.

7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

Population Trends



7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

Population Trends



7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

Population Trends



7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

Population Trends



7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

Population Trends



7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

Population Trends



7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

Population Trends



7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

Population Trends

Population of the United States by Population of the United States by Age and Sex, 1900, 1950, 2000Age and Sex, 1900, 1950, 2000


0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

0 to 4 years

10 to 14 years

20 to 24 years

30 to 34 years

40 to 44 years

50 to 54 years

60 to 64 years

70 to 74 years

80 to 84 years

Population Trends

Population of the United States, Population of the United States, 1900 - 20001900 - 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1900 - 2000.

281,421,906

75,994,575

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Population Trends

Population of the United States Population of the United States Age 65 and Over, 1900 - 2000Age 65 and Over, 1900 - 2000


3,080,498

34,991,753

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Population Trends

Population of the United States Population of the United States Age 19 and Under, 1900 - 2000Age 19 and Under, 1900 - 2000


80,473,265

33,681,074

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Population Trends

Population of Arizona by Age Population of Arizona by Age and Sex, 2000and Sex, 2000


7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

Population Trends

Population of Arizona and the Population of Arizona and the U.S.A. by Age and Sex, 2000U.S.A. by Age and Sex, 2000


7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

Population Trends

Population of AZ and Phoenix Population of AZ and Phoenix MSA by Age and Sex, 2000MSA by Age and Sex, 2000


7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

Population Trends

Population of Sun City, AZPopulation of Sun City, AZ by Age and Sex, 2000by Age and Sex, 2000


12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

0 to 4 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years

Different neighborhoods of TucsonDifferent neighborhoods of Tucson

2000 Population Pyramid, U.S. and Oregon

7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Under 5 years

10 to 14 years

22 to 24 years

30 to 34 years

40 to 44 years

50 to 54 years

62 to 64 years

70 to 74 years

80 to 84 years

Female Male US

2000 Population Pyramid, Oregon and Benton County

7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Under 5 years

10 to 14 years

22 to 24 years

30 to 34 years

40 to 44 years

50 to 54 years

62 to 64 years

70 to 74 years

80 to 84 years

Female Male OR

12.316.6

20.0

25.6

31.135.0

40.2

54.6

71.5

80.0

86.7

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Number of People Aged 65 and Over in the United States: 1950 to 2050(in millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Population by Age and Sex: 2000

15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Thousands

Male Female

Baby Boom

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000.

15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Thousands

Male Female

Baby Boom

Population by Age and Sex: 2030


8.19.0

9.9

11.312.6 12.4

13.0

16.3

19.620.4 20.6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Percent Aged 65 and Over of the Total Population: 1950 to 2050


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

Under 18 18 to 64 65 and over

Percent of People Living in Poverty by Age: Percent of People Living in Poverty by Age: 1959 to 20021959 to 2002

Source: Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, various years..

Population Trends

0

1

2

3

4

1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 2075

Number of Workers Supporting One Number of Workers Supporting One Social Security Beneficiary is DecliningSocial Security Beneficiary is Declining

Source: Social Security Administration

Social Security Income & Outgo Intermediate Assumptions

20.1

17.8

13.4

0

5

10

15

20

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Calendar Year

% o

f ta

xab

le p

ayro

ll

OutgoIncome

66% of outgo in 2076

73% of outgo in 2041 - the year Trust funds are exhausted

Baby Boom

GreaterLife Spans

Source: 2002 SSA trustees report Table IV.B1 and Summary of 2002 trustees report (p. 7).The ultimate outgo under low and high cost assumptions are 14% & 29%.The 2017 date is 2013 and 2021 under the high and low cost assumptions. It's 2027, if interest is included.75 yr actuarial balance = -1.87, -5.00, & 0.44 for the intermediate, high, & low cost assumptions, Table IV.B5.1999 Tech Panel's assumptions increased intermediate 75 yr deficit by 0.5% , a 3% change in total costs.

Estimates

Actual

2017

How Are Social Security Benefits Paid?

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Calendar Year

UnclearFederal Income Taxes Needed to Redeem BondsExcess SS RevenueSS payroll taxes + taxes on benefits

Source: 2002 SS Trustees Report Table IV. B1 Note: Redeeming SSA's Treasury Bonds requires General Revenue (surplus income taxes or more Deficits). Future surpluses depend on debt repayment, no tax cuts, no increased govt prgrams, good economy. Increased deficits (or stock redemption) increases borrowing costs.

Around 2017, outgo first exceeds income

Around 2041, trust funds are exhausted, but payroll taxes can still pay 73% of benefits

Total Costs of Social Security, Medicare, & Medicaid(as a percent of GDP)

4.5% in 2002

7.0% in 20802.5%

8.8%

1.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070Calendar Year

Sources: 2002 OASDHI Table VI.E5, SMI from HI & SMI report Table II.C12; and Medicaid from CBO 10/2000 report (estimates after 2040 based on Medicare growth). Today, they are half of non-interest government expenses. Total costs more than double (Medicare almost quadruples, surpassing SS around 2060). If estimates are accurate, federal taxes will not be able to remain around 20% of GDP. Taxes will have to rise or government programs will have to shrink.

8.3% total

Social Security

Medicare

Medicaid

6% est.

Replacement Rates from Individual Accounts started at age 25 (using Historical Yields from Ibbotsen)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Retirement on Jan 1 of above year at Age 65 with a CPI-indexed life-only annuity

S&P 500

and move to bonds in last 10 years

50% S&P 500 / 50% LT Corp

If You Rebalance Assets Annually

Contribution = 2% of pay

Expenses = 0.3% plus $0

Note variability. Get 30% replacement if retire 1/1/2000 or 12% if retire 1/1/2003, for a reduction of 60% (assets fell 46% and pay increased 17%). Variability can be reduced over short periods by buying bonds or annuities, but there can still be much variability between birth cohorts.

Population Trends

The Social Security GameThe Social Security Game

http://www.actuary.org/socialsecurity/game.html

Documents

Population Trends Population of the United States by Age and Sex, 1900 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1900