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Dordrecht / Boston / Lancaster
Library of Congress Cataloging In Publication Data Mainentry under title:
Population redistribution and development in South Asia
Bibliography: p. Includes index. 1. Migration, Internal - South Asia - Adresses, essays, lectures. 2. Refugees - South Asia - Adresses, essays, lectures. 3. South Asia - Population - Adresses, essays, lectures. I. Kosinski, Leszek A. II. Elahi K. Maudood. HB2096.5.P661985 304.8'0959 84-26260
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TABLE OF CONTINENTS
Preface 1
1 Introduction by Leszek A Kosinski and K. Maudood Elahi. 3
2 Population Redistribution and Settlement Change in South Asia: A Historical Evaluation by K. Maudood Elahi and Sabiha Sultana. 15
3 Migration in South Asia: An Overview by Ronald Skeldon. 37
4 Regional Development Process and Redistribution of Tribal Population in Mid-India by Aijazuddin Ahmad. 65
5 Flood Induced Population Migration in India: A Case Study of Ghaghara Zone by S.L. Kayastha and R.P. Yadava. 79
6 A Cultural Ecological Appraisal of Refugee Resettlement in Independent India by AB. Mukerji. 89
7 Land Resettlement Policy as a Population Redistribution . Strategy in Nepal by Vidya B.S. Kansakar. 111
8 Trends of the Redistribution of Population in Nepal by C.B. Shrestha. 123
9 Population Growth and Redistribution in Sri Lanka, 1901- 1981 by AW.AD.G. Abayasekara. 139
10 Evolution of Population Policies in Sri Lanka: A Survey by R.S. Gunawardena. 155
11 Urbanization and Development Strategies in Sri Lanka by P. Puvanarajan. 169
12 Some Aspects of Population Redistribution in Pakistan, 1951-81 by Qazi Shakil Ahmad. 185
13 Population Mobility in North West Frontier Province of Pakistan by Mohammad Aslam Khan. 197
14 Refugee Problems in Bangladesh by AF.M. Kamaluddin. 221
Index of Names 237
Editorial Board:
John E. Bardach, Honolulu, HI Pierre Biays, Lille Asit Biswas, Oxford Bruce Currey, Dhaka J. Demek, Brno Yehuda Gradus, Beer-Sheva Arild Holt-Jensen, Bergen Huang Ping-wei, Beijing Johannes Karte, Bonn P.M. Kelly, Norwich C. Kergomard, Lille C. Gregory Knight, University, PA M.P. Lapping, Manhattan, KS
W. Lauer, Bonn Lee Shu-tan, Nanjing Richard F. Logan, Los Angeles, CA Walther Manshard, Freiburg i. Br. German MOiler, Heidelberg Paul MOiler, SaarbrOcken Hiroshi Sasaki, Tsukuba Akira Suwa, Tokyo Jarn Thiede, Kiel H.Th. Verstappen, Enschede E.M. Yates, London M.M. Yoshino, Tsukuba Alexander Zaporozec, Madison, WI
List of Figures
Fig 1.1 Population of South Asia, 1950 - 1980 Fig 2.1 Internal population shifts in South Asia, 1931 and major development areas Fig 2.2 Interstate migration in India, 1971 Fig 2.3 Population growth in India, 1971-81 Fig 3.1 Principal streams of lifetime migration in South Asia Fig 4.1 Areas of tribal concentration in India, 1971 and location of study areas Fig 4.2 Population change in villages surrounding Hatia Industrial Complex Fig 5.1 Location of Ghaghara River study area Fig 5.2 Nature of peak floods of Ghaghara River, 1920-56 Fig 5.3 Changes in population density of Ghaghara floodplain Fig 5.4 Floods and seasonal migration in the village of J agdishpur, 1971-77 Fig 6.1 Distribution of Tibetans in India, 1961 and 1971 Fig 6.2 Tibetean refugee settlements in India, 1980 Fig 6.3 Distribution of refugees from Pakistan in India, 1951 Fig 7.1 Major ecological belts and population density in Nepal Fig 7.2 Vertical distribution of population in Nepal, 1971 Fig 7.3 Major streams of population movement in Nepal Fig 9.1 Population density in Sri Lanka, 1981 Fig 9.2 Ethnic composition of population in Sri Lanka, 1971 Fig 10.1 Development projects in Sri Lanka Fig 11.1 Administrative division and climatic zones in Sri Lanka Fig 11.2 Development areas in Sri Lanka Fig 12.1 Muslim refugees from India in urban areas of Pakistan, 1951 Fig 12.2 Percentage increase of population in Pakistan by districts, 1951-81 Fig 12.3 Pattern of population growth in Pakistan, 1951-72 Fig 12.4 Percentage of urban population in Pakistan, 1981. Fig 13.1 Out-migrants from the North West Frontier Province, 1973 Fig 13.2 Afghan refugees registered in NWFP and Baluchistan in 1980 Fig 13.3 In-migrants in the North West Frontier Province, 1973 Fig 14.1 Percentage share of displaced persons in East Pakistan/Bangladesh, 1951 Fig 14.2 Refugee camps in India (1971) and Bangladesh (1980) Fig 14.3 Burmese refugee camps in Bangladesh, July 1978
List of Tables
Tab 1.1 Population of South Asia, 1950-1980 Tab 1.2 Emigration and major concentrations of Indians abroad Tab 1.3 Political migration in South Asia since 1947 Tab 1.4 Immigration from South Asia to Britain, 1962 -1980 Tab 1:5 Immigrants from South Asia admitted to Australia, Canada and the USA Tab 1.6 Migrants from India and Pakistan in the Arab region, 1975 and 1979 Tab 1. 7 Urban population in South Asia, 1950-1980 Tab 1.8 Rural-urban transfer Tab 1.9 Governments' perceptions and policies in relation to migration and spatial distri-
bution, November 1981 Tab 2.1 Density, population change and net migration in Bangladesh Tab 2.2 Net migration rate by states, India, 1951-61 Tab 2.3 Percentage distribution of migrants by migration streams, India, 1961-71 Tab 2.4 Proportion of refugees in the population of major urban centres in Pakistan, 1951 Tab 2.5 Growth of population in Nepal, 1911-1971 Tab 2.6 Migration rates (per 1000) for Sri Lanka, 1961-71, by districts Tab 3.1 Number of internal lifetime migrants captured by the censuses in South Asia
(latest year) Tab 3.2 Magnitude and urban/rural direction of internal migration in four countries of
South Asia: period migration or most recent migration from latest censuses Tab 3.3 Inter-sectoral migration: urban/rural origins and destinations of internal flows in
three countries of South Asia (latest year) Tab 3.4 Inter-sectoral flows for India and Pakistan according to distance (percentage) Tab 3.5 Sex ratios of the largest cities in the countries of South Asia (men per
100 women) Tab 3.6 Selected indicators of social development in South Asia (latest year) Tab 4.1 Population composition of villages in the Hatia Industrial Zone, 1961 Tab 4.2 Ethnic composition of selected villages in Ranchi district, 1962 Tab 4.3 Changes in tribal population in villages around Hatia Industrial Zone, 1961-1971 Tab 4.4 Structure of the workforce in sample villages with predominantly tribal popula-
tions in the neighbourhood of the Hatia Industrial Zone, 1961-1971 Tab 4.5 Change in the proportion of non-tribal population in sample villages in the Paral­
kote zone, Dandakaranya region Tab 5.1 Length of the idle period and percentage of jobless workers in the village of
Jagdishpur Tab 5.2 Types of migration and choice of jobs in the village of Jagdishpur Tab 5.3 Factors of migration in selected villages in Khadar and Bhangar zones (percentage
distribution) Tab 6.1 Population of selected peninsular settlements of Tibetans in India Tab 6.2 Growth of Muslim population in Assam and West Bengal Tab 6.3 Number of Bengali refugees in Dandakaranya Tab 7.1 Inter-regional variation in growth rate in Nepal Tab 7.2 Distribution of population by regions, 1971 Tab 7.3 Migration by regions, 1952 -1971' Tab 7.4 Regional level of urbanization, 1971 Tab 8.1 Families resettled by Nepal Resettlement Company until 1980
Tab 8.2 Tab 8.3 Tab 8.4 Tab 8.5 Tab 9.1 Tab 9.2 Tab 9.3 Tab 9.4
Tab 9.5 Tab 9.6 Tab 10.1 Tab 11.1 Tab 11.2 Tab 11.3 Tab 11.4 Tab 11.5 Tab 11.6 Tab 11.7 Tab 11.8
Tab 12.1 Tab 12.2 Tab 12.3 Tab 13.1
Tab 13.2 Tab 13.3 Tab 13.4
Tab 13.5
Tab 13.10
Tab 13.11
Tab 13.12 Tab 13.13 Tab 13.14 Tab 13.15 Tab 13.16 Tab 14.1 Tab 14.2 Tab 14.3 Tab 14.4 Tab 14.5 Tab 14.6
Families resettled by Resettlement Department until 1980 Distribution and change of population in Nepal, 1911-81 Distribution and growth of population in Nepal, 1971-81 Population growth in the Tarai region, 1971-1981 Intercensal growth of population in Sri Lanka and its components, 1891-1981 Lifetime migration in Ceylon, 1946 Migration and natural increase, 1946-1971 (annual rates per 1000) Birth and death rates, annual growth rates in Sri Lanka, 1930-1970 (rates per 1000) Index of dissimilarity of the population, 1901-1981: annual average Percentage distribution of population by race, 1901-81 Population changes in Sri Lanka, 1946-1980 (rates per thousand) Intercensal growth of population in Sri Lanka, 1871-1941 (in thousands) Population increase in Sri Lanka by districts, 1946-71 Urban centres and urban population in Sri Lanka, 1871-1981 Urban population of Sri Lanka by province and district, 1946-1981 Urban growth in Sri Lanka by province and district, 1946-1981 Changes in urban population, area and density by urban categories, 1963-81 Percentage distribution of towns in Sri Lanka by size class, 1953-81 Components of urban growth in Sri Lanka by size class, 1963-71 (in thou­ sands) Population change in selected districts of Pakistan, 1961-72 Percentage of Hindus in Pakistan, 1941 and 1951 Population of Pakistan by provinces, 1951-1981 Mobility status of population born in North West Frontier Province, 1901-1931 Origin of in-migrants to NWFP, 1931 Immigrants from Afghanistan in NWFP, 1901-1931 Net migration between North West Frontier Province and other provinces of India, 1901-1931 Origin of in-migrants from other parts of India to North West Frontier Pro­ vince, 1931 Destination of NWFP out-migrants enumerated in other parts of India, 1931 Inter-district migration in North West Frontier Province, 1901-1931 Mobility of NWFP-born population in Pakistan, 1951-73 Birth-place of migrants enumerated in North West Frontier Province, 1951-1973 Indian refugees in North West Frontier Province by districts and selected urban centres, 1951 Repatriates from Bangladesh in North West Frontier Province, 1974 and 1979 (families) Afghan refugees in North West Frontier Province, December 31, 1980 Tribal affiliation of Afghan refugees in Kurram Agency, 1980 Migration between NWFP and other provinces of Pakistan, 1951-73 Internal migration into and from NWFP, 1951-73 Inter-district migration in North West Frontier Province, 1951-1973 Distribution of refugees in East Pakistan/Bangladesh and their origin, 1951 Origin of Urdu-speaking refugees, 1951 Urdu-speaking refugee population in Bangladesh, 1979 Distribution of Bangladesh refugees camps in India, July 1971 Percentage distribution of displaced persons in Bangladesh by districts, 1971 Distribution of Burmese refugees in Bangladesh by camps, 1978
List of Contributors
Aijazuddin Ahmad, Ph.D., Professor, Centre for the Study of Regional Development, J. Nehru University, New Delhi - 110067, India
Qazi Shakil Ahmad, Ph.D., Professor and Chairman, Department of Geography, University of Sind, Jamshoro, Sind, Pakistan
K. Maudood Elahi, Ph. D. Associate Professor and Chairman, Department of Geography, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh
R.S. Gunawardena, Ph.D., Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography, Univerisity of Paredeniya, Paredeniya, Sri Lanka
AF.M. Kamaluddin, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Geography, Jahangirnagar University Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh
V.B.S. Kansakar, Ph.D., Centre for Economic Development ·and Administration Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
S.L. Kayastha, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Geography, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi - 221005, India
Mohammed Aslam Khan. Ph.D., Associate Professor, Department of Geography, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan
Leszek A Kosinski, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Geography, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2H4
AB. Mukerji, Ph.D., Professor and Head, Department of Geography, Punjab University, Chandigarh - 160014, India
P. Puvanarajam, Senior Lecturer in Demography, Demographic Training and Research Unit, University of Colombo, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka
C.B. Shrestha, C.B., Ph.D., Professor, Geography Instruction Committee, Kirtip·ur Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
Ronald Skeldon, Ph.D., Lecturer, Department of Geography and Geology, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Sabiha Sultana, Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh
R.P. Yadava, Lecturer, Department of Geography, S.M. Postgraduate College, Chandausi - 202412, India
Preface
The mutual relationship between change in population distribution and its determinants and consequences on one hand, and social and economic development on the other, is becoming an increasingly important area of concern for researchers, policy makers and planners alike. During tha last several years the International Geographical Union Commission on Population Geography has devoted much of its attention to this problem and organized a series of international meetings focusing on population redistribution and its ramifications in different parts of the world.
During one such meeting, held in 1980 in Karachi, Pakistan, some thirty papers were submitted by participants coming mostly from five countries in South Asia: Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The present volume is an outcome of that symposium, but it should not be regarded merely as a report of proceedings; these have been published separately by the Commission. Furthermore, all Pakistani papers were published in their original version in a separate volume edited by M.1. Siddiqi, who coordinated local arrangements for the meeting on behalf of Karachi University.
This present volume offers only a selection of the original papers, all substantially edited and thoroughly revised, and brings them together with additionally solicited texts. All original figures have been redrawn and tables and references have been updated and standardized as much as possible.
Inevitably, the editorial process has been delayed maintammg communication and cooperation with dozens of mobile individuals moving between three continents had its trying moments and in some cases proved impossible, leading to the exclusion of some potentially valuable contributions.
The editors wish to acknowledge, with gratitude, the most valuable assistance obtained from the United Nations Fund for Population Activities which sponsored the original symposium and assisted with editorial costs and has thus indirectly subsidized publication. We are grateful to the Department of Geography, University of Alberta, for the indispensable help rendered during the editorial stage - cartographic expertise was provided by Stephanie Kucharyshyn, Inge
Wilson, and Michael Fisher and directed by Geoffrey Lester; the tedious task of multiple retyping of text, tables and references was handled by Sharon Fowler, Lenore Kroening and Brenda Bronzan. We also acknowledge editorial assistance by Yuri Drohomirecki.
The final version of the book includes fourteen chapters, three of which are concerned with overall patterns of population change in South Asia and eleven are dealing with individual countries of the region. Specific problems of tribal population, flood related migration and refugee resettlement were covered by Indian authors. A general chapter on population trends in Nepal is followed by more specific treatment of resettlement policies in that country. For Sri Lanka there are three complementary contributions dealing with general trends, population policies and the urbanization process. An overall review of trends in Pakistan is supplemented by a case study of the North West Frontier Province. Finally, refugee questions are discussed in detail for Bangladesh.
The editors faced a problem with accurate presentation of international boundaries on maps submitted by authors from countries involved in territorial disputes. This is admittedly a touchy issue and the following solution was adopted: in all maps the boundaries are shown as submitted by the authors. This means that in most, but not all, cases the "de facto" situation is portrayed.
It would be presumptuous to pretend to cover all problems of this large and populous subcontinent in one volume. It is hoped, however, that this collection will be of value to those who are interested in the specific issue of population redistribution and development in South Asia as seen by authors from that area.
Leszek A. Kosinski K. Maudood Elahi
Kosinski, L.A. and Elahi, K.M. (ed.): Population Redistration and Development in South Asia, pp. 003-014 C 1985 D. Reidel Publishing Company
1
Introduction
3
Leszek A. Kosinski, Ph. D., Professor, Department of Geography, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2H4 and K. Maurlood Elahi, Ph. D. Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Abstract: After discussing comparative growth of population in five countries of South Asia the authors focus on three aspects of population redistribution in the region: international migration (considerable in absolute numbers but insignificant in comparison with the overall population change). the urbanization process (in which migration is quite important) and governments' perceptions and policies.
South Asia represents one of the major regions of the world. Anything happening in an area which accounts for nearly one fifth of the global population is bound to have an impact on the world affairs.
Its huge population, expected to reach the one billion mark before the end of the 1980s, has been increasing at a rate faster than the global average, and this difference does not seem to be declining. The population of India dominates the region; next ranking Pakistan and Bangladesh are similar in size, as are Nepal and Sri Lanka, but all four combined account for less than one third of India's population alone (Fig 1.1). Within the region itself, ranking of countries has remained the same (that is. if we treat Bangladesh separately even before it acquired independence), but the percentage share of each country has changed a little during the last three decades (Tab 1.1). India and Nepal account for a somewhat lower proportion now than three decades ago while Bangladesh and Pakistan have increased theirs.
This redistribution of population has resulted mainly from differential natural increase since external migration was of minor importance compared to overall growth. Nevertheless, some migration flows did take place both within and without the region. Since interregional movements have been discussed in considerable detail in other chapters of this volume (Elahi and Sultana. Skeldon), the present discussion will be limited to three major issues, covered in the following sections.
International Migration
The population of the South Asian subcontinerit was involved in international migration in the past, most of which was of a circulatory !ype (Tinker 1974). Total emigration from the
4
population In millions
~ ILA KA 15
Fig 1.1 Population of South Asia, 1950 - 1980
Indian subcontinent between the years 1834- 1937 was estimated at 30.2 million and return migration for the same period of time at 23.9 million which implied a net loss of some 6.3 million (Davis 1951: 99). Indian communities residing abroad were· a residual of these flows (Schwartzberg 1978: XIA). Their size was estimated at nearly 4 3/4 million in the 1930s and in the principal countries of settlement was about the same in the early 1960s, although there was a decline in Burma (Chakravarti 1971) and Sri Lanka with an increase in the remaining countries (Tab 1.2). However, in the years following World War II there was a considerable shift in the direction of flows as new destinations were emerging. According to a 1979 Indian Ministry of External Affairs estimate the number of persons of Indian extraction residing abroad was 10,7 million (Weiner 1982: 32) to which expatriates from other countries of South Asia have to be added. This number was impressive but represented merely 1.6 % of the national population at that time.
Within the region the largest flows developed in connection with the major political uipheavals which produced substantial changes in the political map of the Subcontinent over the last several decades (Tab 1.3). Withdrawal of the British from India and the division of
Tab 1,1 Population of South Asia, 1950-1980
Populalil'n P.:rccnlage C(luntr~ In million, ,hare
1950 1 'ltlO 1970 1%0 IIJ:;O 19XO
Banl!lade'h ·HI.fI :;1.4 hlU KX.~ X 7 9 .lJ
Im.lla .'flX.:; ·139.-1 :;5~ :; h,'-l5 7'l.5 77.0
epal IU 9.3 11.-1 l-l . .' IX 1.0
Pal-I'lan ,:1 '.5 -l9.4 fI:; 7 h.!) iU 9.X
Sri 1 anl.a 7,7 9.9 12.5 1-l.K 1.7 1.7
Soulh A,ia TOIal -l63.: 559.:; 710.-l i\i\,'.h 100.0 100.0
A\.:ra!!e annual grim Ih ralc p<:r 100 IIJSO 1955 1%0 IIJfl5 1970 1975 -55 -hO 65 7() -75 -1'0
~ , ~.6 ~.Ii :;,1.) 2.3 ~X
15 :!.O :! . .1 ~ . .' :!.3 :!O 0.1' I.fI 19 2 I ~ , 2.3 :!.-l 2.0 2 X 2,9 2.S ~ X 2.h 25 2-l 2.3 1.7 1.7
1.7 :! . I 23 2.4 2.J ~ ~
Source: UN 19K I a: II'. 24 Note: Mid-year eSlimales
5
the latter into India and Pakistan was associated with a massive transfer of population esti­ mated at 14.5 million between 1947-1951 and followed by subsequent flows (ILO 1979: 110-113). This mostly spontaneous exchange created very serious problems of settlement and integration in all areas affected. It also had some impact upon development of various areas (Keller 1975). Long-term consequences of some of these movements have been dis­ cussed in this volume by Mukerji and Kamaluddin. The Civil War in Eastern Pakistan and the emergence of Bangladesh in 1971 gave rise to a huge flow of refugees, most of whom returned home after the situation stabilized. However, there was also a further exchange of
Tab 1.2 Emigration and major conce ntrations of Indians abroad A
"<l'l .:mlgr;lilon Illllian, l·nUn1<:ral.:d ahroad 1\
, ~,Ir, om I' , car 000' -'I car
Burma 2 -,/;;; 1931 10lii Cc~ Ion '>ri lanl..1 1, ' '\-I-19.'X 1;;;29 1940 1'lh3
liI!;l\a IXh()-19J, I I iN 1941 7M 1960 I\lauriliu, liiJ-I I'/:!O ~X5 1940 272 1'/57 Brill,h (iuian,1 lii45 192-1 160 1'.I3ii I-IJ 1'/hO 1 nnidad ;lnd lobal!o li\-l5 1'12-1 116 11I3 . I:X 11Ihil ')oulh Alril.'01 li\flO-1937 7f1 1936 220 I'/hl Fi)i 11')\1 1'13, 35 11I41 III:! 1')flO h"1 ,\ 1 rica ( 1 l)'i 19:!1 17 1'1.19 -I'i 1%3
Illc' 1\ "'t.lll,lIe, on emll!r;1I10n Include .11t Ic"dellh "I India. rq!iJrdk" 0) religion B Dillcrcnl erllCria In \"ru,u, COUlllrll" C Pnur II' \\ orld \\ <lr II 'h'mh;ha . "-1.'11\.1
Sources: Davis 1951: 10 I; layawardena 19611: 429; Clarke 1971: 1911.
00(1'
4\14 I') . .152
Perkxl of umber; From - to movement (DOll")
India - Pa!...lstan 1947-51 72959 Paki.tan - India 1947-51 7226.6 India - Pakistan 1951 - 50 I 150.0 Pa!...istan - India 1951 - 56 I 500.0 Tibet - India 1959- () (UI Tibet - epal 1959- 60 lUI
ri Lan!...a - IndIa I 96()- 1 203.3 Banglade h - India 1971 III 000.0
Bangladesh - Paki,tan 1974.77. 159 H 79.H2
Pakistan - Banglade .. h 1974 IOH .5 epal - Pakl,tan 1974 10.9
Burma - Bangladesh 1971i 222.6
ommenh
A Paki\l3n 1951 census A India 1951 ccnsus B B
A B B
,timate of IOflo", Estimate of inflow ESllmatc quoted oy Mukcrji
. H R estimate in 1971 ,lImale quoted by Gunawardena ,t,mate of inl1o",. most were
repatriated in the early 1972 Transfcr'. organilcd 10 differcnt }ears
fficialtran,fer rtictaltrans(er
A R.:glstered 10 the refugee camp' a, quoted b) Kamaluddin
A Pald,taO! Government records. June 19112
Oleo,: A umber of rctugee, pre,en! enumeratcd accord 109 to a census or admini,trallve rccord, (stock)
B ,timate of a no",
Sources: ILO 1959: 110 -113 UN 1979: 53 UNHCR 1982, 12: 2,4, 12 Chapters by Gunawardena, Kamaluddin, Khan & Mukerji in this volume
some 1/4 million persons between (Western) Pakistan and Bangladesh. Additional potential migrants still remain stranded in Bangladesh (see Kamaluddin). The inflow of refugees from Tibet (still remaining) and Burma (since repatriated), and the exchange between India and Sri Lanka have been of relatively minor importance (further discussion of these flows can be found in the chapters by Elahi and Sultana, Mukerji, Kamaluddin and Gunawardena).
The region under study has recently been affected by the events in Afghanistan. The first bloody coup against Daud's government in April, 1978, initiated a series of violent upheavals culminating in the Soviet invasion in December, 1979, and the ensuing civil war. The number of Afghan refugees, crossing mainly to Pakistan, kept increasing during that time: from the 400 000 registered by the time of the Soviet intervention, estimates of their numbers grew to more than 2 112 million in 1982 and 3 million in 1983. The Afghan refu­ gees have tended to concentrate in Baluchistan and the North West Frontier Province (see Khan's discussion on NWFP).
The volume of voluntary migration, attributed mainly to economic and social factors, has been rather modest compared to that related to political causes, but it does continue and seems to be on the rise. The principal flows are as follows:
7
Tab 1.4 Immigration from South Asia to Britain, 1962-1980
Acceptance for elliement on arrival or removal of lime limit ational, of Total 1962-65 1966-70 1971-75 1976-80
Bangladesh A 32360 .A .A. 11560 B 20800 India 668510 156120 301760 165140 45490 Pakl"an 436025 91025 1995 0 87930 57490
ri Lanka 67950 16060 29930 17930 4030
Total 1204 45 263205 531270 282560 B 127 \0
ote~: Prior to 1972 immigrant!. from Bangladesh Included with MalistiQ. for Pakl"an B Banglade h 1972 - 75
Sources: UK 1962-80
A. Immigration to Britain, which was a traditionally favoured destination for tempo­ rary migration and, in addition, now attracts permanent settlers representing various social strata. During the last eighteen years the United Kingdom has admitted some 1.2 million persons from South Asia (Tab 1.4) and it appears that there was a considerable turnover since according to the 1981 census the number of persons born in four countries of this re­ gion (except Nepal) who resided in Britain was approximately 655,000. The inflow from the former colonial countries is not without problems and, ,as a result, British immigration policy has gradually been made more restrictive.
B. The three traditional settlement countries, Australia, Canada and the USA became more attractive destinations once their highly selective immigration policies were modified, with the result that South Asians who chose these countries account for an increasing share of the overall intake. During the last two decades Australia admitted 40-50000, Canada, over 120000 and the USA over 200000 (Tab 1.5).
C. A new destination, rapidly gaining popularity, is the Middle East (Keely 1980, Ecevit 1981, Weiner 1982). Unlike previously mentioned destinations the oil rich countries tend to attract both skilled and unskilled labour on a temporary (if often long-term) basis, mainly from India and Pakistan (Birks and Sinclair 1980). By 1975 the number of South Asians might have been approaching 700 000 and it has undoubtedly increased considerably during subsequent years, with the Indian contingent doubling in size and the number of Pa­ kistanis estimated at 1 million or more (Tab l.6).
The total size of all these flows may amount to 2.5 million over the twenty years betwe­ en 1960 and 1980. At the same time the population of the five countries under study has increased by 329 million. This comparison clearly shows how unimportant the international migration has been for the overall demographic situation of the subcontinent.
This does not mean that in certain specific areas migration is not a significant social and economic factor which attracts the attention of politicians and scholars (Weiner 1982). The attitudes of governments with regard to international migration and the PQlicy responses are discussed later in this introduction.
8
Tab 1.5 Immigrants from South Asia admitted to Australia, Canada and the United States of America, 1959- 80
(()unlr~ 01 dC,lIn;llilln ,lOll lldmllinn \
Au,· Blrlh
( 1I11~Il,h'r
( ';\lwda Blrlh
11/61 XI)
19h1l • '(1
1 <I(,Il-Xi)
151 ~ .~h
2;i.1 hi I
~I)h ~~ I ~J I· ::! I'\:! Jill> 2~ h 71) I- 2 II~:' J I') 24 21):-; r I 6')2
')'/~ I I ~5 ')f)1l 2<)< 1'1 h 15 (1) I ( \)1) 2112 J2( 211 211 :-;4')( I I (J ,~:; 21)1 2375.1
, ,qll 2(1, 1\6\)1 hl71 .':' 4/>4
'mc': ,\ B~ CllUllIn III olrlh . h\ l'I'UI1II~ .. I 1;,,1 ,"·,id"·l1cl' lIr b~ l'''lInlr~ .. I <':lliA'n,llIp B [\dudm\! ~l'pal (..:\l·~·P' III ( al1;,da) ( 1'J74 - MI D I'n~ 1 11)71 -
'\n ddla a,,"I.lhk
4 (1)4 35.1:-; 442:'
3 . 11,1
South Asia continues to be a region with relatively low level of urbanization. By 1980 only 21.5 % was classified as urban compared to 30.8 % in all less developed regions and 41.1 % in the world as a whole (UN 1982b). Nevertheless, the total urban population, estimated by the same source as close to 200 million, accounted for some 10 % of the global urban sector, and with the expected increase to 427 million by the year 2000 its share is likely to increase to 14 %. In the second half of the present century the urban population in South Asia has been growing at a faster rate than the national population as a whole and, as a result, its proportion has continued to increase and this trend is likely to persist (Tab 1.7). The degree of urbanization and the past and future urban growth are highly differentiated. Pakistan has always been the most urbanized but its leading position is increasingly challen­ ged by Sri Lanka, which is likely to have virtually the same level of urbanization by the end of the present century. India was a close second in 1950 but has been slipping ever since, and the growth of its urban population, although in absolute numbers staggering, is occuring at a slower rate than in the remaining countries; as a result, the level or urbanization in In­ dia was third highest in 1980. Bangladesh and Nepal started from an extremely low level thirty years ago and, despite impressive advances, are likely to remain least urbanized of all, at least during the next two decades.
Tab 1.6 Migrants A from India and Pakistan in the Arab region. 1975 and 1979 (in thousands)
Counlr~ olorigm amI cal':l!llr) nl mlgranl
India Pakl'lan
( nUllIn \\m!...:r, \lIgranl' \-llgranh \I, nr!...:r' 01 r.:,ki.:nc.: 1<)7:; 1<)7:; 1<)7<) 1<)75
Saudl -Arahlil 1.- 0 3-' ,5 100,0 15.0 LitH;! 0:; I I 10,0 -t ~ L IlII.:d j\ r;lh [mlral.:, 61 .5 1075 1.-2,0 100. (I
I'. UI\;II I 21.5 32 I 05 ,(1 II .n
Oawr 16.0 :!7.X 30,0 16.0 Bahr,lIn Xl) 17 ,3 20,0 0.7 Oman :!h,O 3)o; ,:i 60.0 3:! 5
'1.:nK'n 17.0 I r;lll 50 7.:i :!() II :ill
10lal l:i-' .-t :!66.3 .-()O,O" 1l)0,7
:'\01.:" 1\ S(\m~' ':'lImal':' HI': IImil.:d 10 Ilm!..cr'. IIlh,' r gil 0: Ill" IOlal, 1m all mlgranh 'ncludln!! 21 O(JO In Iran ,
Migrilnh 1<)75
-'7 .• 12 X
10.0
-'()6. 1(
B C Al'':\lrdl~1! III unllll,cliIl - l!lI':'lImillc'oo Ih.: numh.:r til p"kl,lal1l' mlh.: r.lIdlll.: [01'1
c\c.:.:d, ,- milium (L' " Il),'2: ~2)
Sources: Birks and Sinclair 1980: 137-9
Weiner 1982: 5 and 32 (based on data of the India Ministry of External Affairs)
9
Differential growth of urban and rural population is influenced not only by differences in natural growth but, most of all, by rural-urban transfer, which includes migration (chie­ fly), as well as reclassification of rural communities absorbed into growing cities or granted urban charters. According to UN estimates for four countries of the region, rural-urban transfer accounted for from one third to over one half of the total urban growth. The effect of this rural-urban transfer on natural increase of the far greater rural population was much smaller (UN 1980a: 24, 29).
The extent of migration flows and urban growth has been sufficient to give rise to ap­ prehension on the part of several governments. This is reflected in government attitudes and policy measures discussed in the following section.
Governments' Perceptions and Policies
The increasing role of governemts in influencing the patterns of population distribution and its mobility is a world wide phenomenon. Governments are expected to intervene, if the si­ tuation worsens to the extent that it is perceived as a problem. Furthermore, many govern­ ments realize that their development plans and policies cannot be successful unless the spatial component is taken into consideration and this necessarily involves looking at various
10
Mil.
epal 190 Pakistan 6742
ri Lanka I 106
711 5.0 24 ·'to 2R.2 3935 26.6
191 113 21.5
ote: medium \ariant of the 19110 proJection. mld-}ear e'timatc,
Source : UN 1982 b: 298-310
2000 A
Mil. Percentage
2206 l) .
57475 41.1 1I'i53 40.6
aspects of population. The World Population Year in 1974 and the World Population Plan of Action approved that year by the UN sponsored conference had a great impact upon both public opinion and governments' attitudes to the population problem, widely defined. It has been since 1974 that the attitudes and policies of governments have been monitored by UN agencies and the results published (UN 1980).
Among the questions included in the periodic surveys are those relating to the patterns of population distribution and the levels and direction of migrations, both internal and inter­ national. Government agencies are asked to identify their main concerns and proposed or implemented policies. The most recent information, relating to the situation at the end of 1981, was summarized on the basis of the UN document (Tab 1.9).
It appears that all five countries of the region are concerned with the patterns of popu­ lation distribution within their national territories. Policy responses vary but all countries are considering certain measures, including land reform, regional development programmes, in­ dustrial location policies, and emphasis on medium-size town dev~lopment in order to redu­ ce metropolitan congestion. This last problem is particularly important in India and, on a different scale, in Sri Lanka.
Tab 1.8 Rural-urban transfer
Percentage of rural-urban tran .. rcr compared to
Rural nalural increa .. c
A 11.1 32.2 11.0 37.2 23 ..j .7 239
Tab 1.9 Governments ' perceptions and policies in relation to mig,ation and spatial distribution, November 1981
ountry
patial distribution requires adjustment
Exce ,Ive denslI} m the hills
Immigration aggra\ates population probkms Levels and trend. of cmigration igni ficant and satisfaclOf}
Spallal distribution requires adjustment
patlal distribution requires adjustment
Leve,", and trends of emlgrallon 'Ignlflcant and satl,factor}. some problems of "brain drain"
Source: UNPD 1982c: 4, 25, 39, 42 and 52.
Policie ..
Regional development programme incl. generation of non-farm employment in rural areas Increasmg mterest m encouragement of labour emigration to the Middlc ast
Attempts to re.,trict gro" th of large metr - politan areas and increa!>C the Tate of gr "th of mall and medium towns through inveM­ ment polit} . Remittances from workers in Ihe Pcr ian Gulf arc appreciated
Intensi\e arca development project and developing small-scalc indu trie in rder to move people to astern Tarai and facilitate urbanization
ince 197R rest ricl1on .. on immigration
The governmt!nt dcsire. to increase emlgrallon f unskilled labour and reduce emigration of professional
Integrated rural and urban de\elopment. increa<,c of agncultural production, mdustrial locallon poliC} Hlghl} tramed professionals require "no objection" certificate before g ing abroad
Establbhment of productive and service actl\IIII:S oU"lde the metropolitan region. agricultural dl\erslfication
1l
12
An earlier UN survey contains more specific information on policies related to internal migration (UN 1980, vol. II: 120). Four countries of the region wanted to decelerate the flows of migration in conjunction with adjustment of either rural settlement patterns (Sri Lanka and Nepal) or both rural and urban configurations (India and Pakistan). Bangladesh reported its desire to reverse the flow of migration and at the same time adjust rural confi­ guration.
It is obvious that awareness of the problem, albeit necessary, is only the first step in the long chain of attitudes and actions required for a successful government intervention (Pryor and Kosinski 1978). The adoption of policy, selection of policy instruments, and their suc­ cessful application, are at least as important. The experience of those countries which intro­ duced various planning intervention procedures in the past shows that these do not guaran­ tee success. Indeed, the debate as to the merits of intervening in population redistribution is still going on. A succinct summary and discussion of arguments on both sides can be found in a recent UN publication (Mabogunje 1981 and Stohr 1981, both in UN 1981 b).
The UN surveys also enquire about attitudes and policies relating to international mi­ gration. The responses from South Asian governments varied a great deal (Tab 1.9). Ban­ gladesh and India felt that the levels of both immigration and emigration were not very si­ gnificant and apparently quite acceptable. Both governments were interested in the pro­ spects of labour migration to the oil-rich Middle East and the remittances generated by this flow. Pakistan and Sri Lanka experienced relatively high levels of emigration but were not concerned except that Sri Lanka was somewhat apprehensive about the "brain drain". Per­ haps the explanation of the apparent lack of concern by the Pakistani government about the adverse effects of the excessive outflow of highly skilled personnel can be found in the poli­ cy measure applied - persons in this category require a special "no objection" certificate before going abroad. One should remember also that Pakistan has long been interested in promoting emigration (UN 1982a: 52). The Nepalese governments had no misgivings about emigration, even if its level was perceived to be quite high. However, it indicated its interest in influencing the composition of the outflow by increasing the emigration of unskilled la­ bour and reducing the outflow of professionals. Insofar as immigration was concerned, it was perceived by Nepal as excessive and in fact certain measures have apparently been in­ troduced in order to reduce it. The problem of infiltration of immigrants is particularly acute in the Tarai region of Nepal but it does appear in other parts of the subcontinent, someti­ mes leading to violent confrontations like those in Indian Assam.
Summary and Conclusion
South Asia, with its huge and fast growing population, will remain one of the key compo­ nents in the world demographic order. The changes taking place there have been largely confined to the subcontinent and, although some flows of international migration originated here both in the past and at the present time, the region has been only marginally involved in the patterns of global popUlation mobility: Nevertheless, it remains a formidable pool of labour and mounting population pressure resulting from high rates of increase can make it into a much more active agent of international migration. Much will depend on policies of the national governments in South Asia as well as government in the countries of potential
13
destination. There is a possibility of future conflict since the former are increasingly inter­ ested in the outflow of surplus population, both temporary and permanent, and the latter are gradually tightening their policies (UN 1982a). Prospects for intra-regional transfers of population are even more limited as indicated by the sponsored return of former economic migrants (from Sri Lanka to India) of refugees (Bangladeshi in India, Burmese in Bangla­ desh). Infiltration of migrants, either legal or otherwise, meets with negative reaction, some­ times extremely violent (against Bengalis in Assam).
There are many development aspects of international migration and they are often con­ tradictory. The outflow of surplus labour is favoured by most governments but the loss of qualified personnel is not. Emigration can be a useful safety valve, but when it is suddenly closed (and such possibility can never be ruled out) the consequences can be disastrous. In­ flow of remittances is normally welcome even if they tend to feed inflation and are more often than not spent on conspicuous consumption instead of productive investment. On the other hand, the dependence of the national economy on such a source of revenue is always precarious in the long run.
Internal mobility of population cannot always be equated with developmental trends but there is no doubt that the process of structural change accompanying modernization tends to produce new types of migration. The levels of population mobility in five countries of the region have been described elsewhere (Skeldon); it appears that the perception of these levels depends very much on the scale of inquiry. Government-sponsored projects and their demographic aspects are discussed by different authors in the present volume. Development projects in Sri Lanka (Abayasekara, Gunavardena, Puvanarajan), resettlement of re­ fugees in India (Mukerji), land resettlement in Nepal (Shrestha, Kansakar) are all examples of organized transfers of population. Sometimes mobility can be forced by environmental change (Kayastha and Yadava); often the social costs of the development projects can be unfairly distributed (A. Ahmad on tribal population). And there is always a possibility that political upheavals can produce sizeable movements of popUlation unexpected and disrupti­ ve and these will undoubtedly affect developmental processes (Mukerji, Khan, Kamalud­ din).
In view of the limited role of international migration, it is obvious that internal migra­ tions will represent the more significant variety of population mobility in South Asia. Thus, international flows and, most of all, rural-urban movements, either planned or spontaneous, desirable or detrimental, gradual or sudden, all of them related in one way or another to the development process, will be necessity attract attention of researchers, planners and politi­ cians in the years to come.
14
References
Australia. Australian Immigration. Quarterly and Annual publication, Department of Immigration and Ethnic Aff:;lirs, Canberra.
Birks, J.S.; Sinclair, C.A.: International Migration and Development in the Arab Region. International Labour Office, Geneva, 1980
Chakravarti, N.R: The Indian Minority in Burma: the Rise and Decline of an Immigrant Community. Oxford University Press, London, 1971.
Canada. Immigration Statistics. Annual, Employment and Immigration, Ottawa. Clarke, J.I.: Population Geography and the Developing Countries. Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1971. Davis, K.: The Population of India and Pakistan, Princeton University Press, Princeton 1951. Ecevit, Z.H.: International labour migration in the Middle East and North Africa: trends and policies. In
Kritz, M.M.; Keely, C.B.; Tomasi, S.M. (eds.): Global Trends in Migration: Theory and Research on International Population Movements, pp. 259-275. Center for Migration Studies, New York, 1981.
ILO: International Migration 1945-1957. International Labour Office, Geneva, 1959. Jayawardena, D.: Migration and social change: a survey of Indian communities overseas. Geographical
Review 58, 3, 426-449 (1968). Keely, C.B.: Asian Worker Migration to the Middle East. Working Paper. Population Council, Center
for Policy Studies, New York, 1980. Keller, S.L.: Uprooting and Social Change: the Role of Refugees in Development. Manohar Book
Service, Delhi, 1975. Mabogunje, A.: Objectives and rationales for regional population redistribution in developing countries.
In: UN pp. 19-29, 1981b. Pryor, RJ.; Kosinski, L.A.: Population Redistribution Policies, International Geographical Union,
Commission on Population Geography, Edmonton 1978. Schwartzberg, J.E. (eds.): A Historical Atlas of South Asia. Chicago University Press, Chicago 1978. Stohr, W.B.: Evaluation of some arguments against government intervention to influence territorial
population distribution. In: UN pp. 42-49, 1981b. Tinker, H.: A New System of Slavery: the Export of Indian Labour Overseas. Oxford University Press,
London 1974. , UK: Control of Immigration Statistics. Annual, United Kingdom, Home Office (Title of the series
varies), London. UN: Trends and Characteristics of International Migration since 1950. United Nations, Demographic
Studies No. 64 (ST/ESA/SERA/64), New York 1979. UN: Patterns of Urban and Rural Population Growth. United Nations, Population Studies No. 68 (STI
ESA/SERA/68), New York 1980. UN: World Population Trends and Policies: 1979 Monitoring Report. Vol. I. Population Trends; Vol. II
Population Policies. United Nation, Population Studies No. 70 (ST/ESA/SER AI70), New York 1980b.
UN: World Population Prospects as Assessed in 1980. United Nations, Population Studies No. 68 (STI ESA/SERA/68), New York 1981a.
UN: Population Distribution Policies in Development Planning. Papers of the United Nations/UNFPA Workshop on Population Distribution Policies in Development Planning, Bangkog, 4-13 September 1979. United Nations, Population Studies No.7 5 (ST ESA/SERAI7 5), 1981 b.
UN: International Migration Policies and Progammes: A World Survey. United Nations, Population Stu­ dies No. 80 (ST/ESA/SERA/80), New York 1982a.
UN: Demographic Indicators of Countries: Estimates and Projetions as Assessed in 1980. United Natio­ nas (ST/ESA/SERA/82), New York 1982b.
UN: Population Policy Briefs: Current Situation in Developing Countries and Selected Territories, 1982. United Nations (ESA/P/W.P.67/REV.I), New York 1982c.
UNHCR: Refugees Magazine. Supplement to a monthly newsletter Refugees, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva 1982.
USA: Annual Report. United States Department of Justice, Immigration and Naturalization Service, Washington.
Weiner, M.: International migration and development: Indians in the Persian Gulf. Population and Development Review 8,1,1-36 (1982).
Kosinski, L.A. and Elahi, K.M. (ed.): Population Redistration and Development in South Asia, pp.015-035 C 1985 D. Reidel Publishing Company
2
15
Population Redistribution and Settlement Change in South Asia: A Historical Evaluation
K. Maudood Elahi, Ph. D. Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh and Sabiha Sultana, Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Abstract: An overall review of existing literature is followed by a discussion of major and minor population shifts in South Asia in different historical periods: pre-British, British and post-Independ­ ence. The second part of the chapter deals with general patterns of population redistribution in each country of the region.
Introduction
The South Asian subcontinent long experienced virtually uninterrupted demographic mobility which was reflected in the almost unchecked transfer and resettlement of population in a number of places. Such population mobility was due to both environmental and socio-economic causes. Nepal, Bengal (including the Assam valley) and Sri Lanka long provided sanctuaries to people coming from other areas. The development of local industrial or commercial nodes and agricultural growth poles attracted more people, leading to the development of new settlements or the modification of existing ones, subsequently affecting the pattern of population distribution in a given region. During the British colonial period, in most of South Asia, the process was accentuated in a number of places by the development of commercial agriculture (eg. indigo cultivation in Bengal) followed by plantation and mining enterprises and the expansion of the railway network to serve such areas as well as the administrative centres.
In later periods, inter- and intra-regional population mobility was adversely affected by local resentment against the influx of outsiders. The rise of this antagonism parallels the emergence of regional identities rooted in religious, political and economic differences. The whole trend, as will be seen later, led to a different pattern of population distribution in most countries in South Asia.
16
Despite the importance of studies on regional and territorial population change and distribution, this field has long been neglected and there is a dearth of research. Even in Western countries, the existing literature is rather recent and limited (Goodrich 1936; Kuznets and Thomas 1964; Kosinski and Pryor 1978; Golini and Nobile 1979; Comite 1979; Webb, Naukkarinen and Kosinski 1981; and Clarke and Kosinski 1982). Nevertheless, a number of empirical studies at both macro- and micro levels, on population distribution, variation and migration provide valuable insight into the pattern and dynamic~ of changes in population distribution and the direction of population shift in South Asia.
A good deal of information of a historical demographic nature is available from the Imperial Gazetteer of India - mainly those volumes published prior to 1921 by the Government of India - as well as from the reports of the Census of India since 1881 (India 1909; and India 1891-1931). The social and anthropological studies by Atkinson (1881), Hunter (1897) and others (Moreland 1920; Farmer 1957), and more recently a study on agricultural colonization in India by Farmer (1974) also provide valuable background on the determinants of population redistribution in some parts of South Asia. A cartographic presentation of a wealth of data can be found in a monumental historical atlas of South Asia (Schwartzberg 1978). Zachariah's study on migration in India provides a useful lead to the nature of population shift in this country (Zachariah 1964). More recently, Jain (1975), Pareek and Rao (1974) reviewed the trends and the outcome of current research on population, including population distribution, migration and development perspectives in India. In fact, India is well ahead of all South Asian countries in research on population movement and recent studies are quite numerous (Zachariah 1964; Bose 1967; Kumar 1967; Zachariah and Ambannavar 1967; Gupta 1967; Connell et al. 1974; and Gosal and Krishnan 1975).
In Bangladesh, Obaidullah's work on internal migration was the first of its kind to eclucidate the direction of popUlation mobility within the country (Obaidullah 1967). Although studies on spatial change and distribution of various population characteristics including migration were undertaken by a number of authors (Elahi 1971; Huq 1973; Elahi 1974; and Elahi and Chowdhury 1976), it was not until 1977 that interdistrict population mobility was studied by Haque (1977) who analyzed the spatial change in the country's labour force structure. In 1978, Krishnan and Rowe (1978) reviewed inter-district population movement over time, emphasizing its relationship with a number of pre-selected factors.
In Pakistan, studies of population with reference to changes in the distribution pattern and dynamism are relatively scant, and most existing studies are either related to rural­ urban migration, migration of refugees or rehabilitation of displaced persons following the Partition in India (Afzal 1967a; 1967b). Nevertheless, the works on refugees do provide some valuable insight into the socio-political aspects of inter-regional population exchange in this part of Asia; those by Jillani (1962) and Khan (1972) deserve special mention. A more recent study by Ahmad (1980), while attempting to analyse the popUlation redistribution of Pakistan, put emphasis on refugees and the problems of urbanization.
Literature on population redistribution in Nepal is scant, but some useful materials do exist at local levels (Kansakar 1973-74; Geography Instruction Committee 1974; MacFarlene 1976; and Shrestha 1978). More recently, a series of studies undertaken by the Centre of Economic Development and Administration (CEDA) in Kathmandu on the
17
resettlement programme in Nepal evaluates the possibilities and effectiveness of planned redistribution of population from economically depressed to agriculturally potential areas. In particular, the study conducted by Kansakar (1979) provides exhaustive materials on this aspect in selected areas of Nepal.
For Sri Lanka, a good deal of useful literature on population redistribution is available. Farmer's study on the peasant colonization in Sri Lanka indicated the direction of mobility of the agricultural population within the country as well as from south India, and the impact of the development of plantation agriculture on changes in local and regional population. distribution (Farmer 1957). Furthermore, literature on migration in response to the development efforts of the 'dry zone' and on urbanization indicates' the pattern and dynamics of population redistribution within the country (Dias 1978). The ESCAP study on the population of Sri Lanka provides valuable materials and bibliographic information on popUlation distribution and changes· as well as on migration' (ESCAP 1976).
This brief review suggests that the literature related to population redistribution in South Asia provides useful information on trends, on patterns of change in population distribution and on mobility at local as well as regional levels in most countries of the region. Demographic data' are practically unavailable for Bhutan and the smaller island countries in South Asia, as there is little or no work on population for these countries. The available materials are heavily weighted towards history and to a lesser degree, anthropology. Therefore, these countries have been excluded from this review.
The existing studies do not, however, provide an overview of the dynamism of the process over time and space. Moreover, in most countries of South Asia there is still a dearth of documents containing clearly defined policies and objectives of population distribution in relation to development strategies. The present study, while emphasising the dynamics and trends of population redistribution, attempts to fill in the gaps in the existing literature on this still under-researched field of population study.
Major Shifts of Population
Pre-British period: The early patterns of population redistribution and settlement change/ expansion in South Asia may be reconstructed from various historical sources. It is evident that a greater part of riverine and wet South Asia was under forest and the arid or semi-arid areas were practically barren throughout the historical past (Law 1954). During the Mughal period, much of the Indo-Gangetic plain was under forest and human occupation was quite slow to penetrate into such lands (Moreland 1920). Likewise, a greater part of Rajasthan, Sind and Punjab - extending into Baluchistan and the hilly northwest, was very sparsely populated because of scarcity of water in the region.
There is evidence that major pockets of human settlement existed along fertile valleys of agricultural value, and in some coastal areas enjoying trading advantages (Spate 1957). There is also evidence of settlement development in cycles depending upon the prospect of agriculture or trade; when economic activities declined, the population tended to move away to settle elsewhere. Settlement development W!lS also influenced by taxation policies, wars. frequent famines, epidemics and. other natural disasters (Habib 196~). The ruins of settlements found in several places along the Gangetic plain to the Sundarban forest in the Ganges delta may be cited as examples.
18
In later periods, reoccupation of abandoned lands was mostly spontaneous, though, instances of organized colonization, as during the rule of Asoka or later Muhammad Tuglak, were not uncommon (Moreland 1920; and Sharma 1966). Many.Mughal emperors, particularly Akbar, were keen on the extension of cultivated lands and settlement development of wastelands (Moreland 1920). In later periods, Sikh rulers extended their settlements in the upper Indus plain and in parts of Sind (Spate and Learmonth 1967). At the beginning of British rule about 40 to 50 per cent of the total area of Bengal was settled - the rest was mainly under forest cover and marshes (Dutt 1906; and Powell 1907).
Net lifetime migration
=~~~~ Areas of major "rrgallon schemes
: I: I: I Major plantation areas
a Areas of mining and Industrral development
Fig 2.1 Internal population shifts in South Asia, 1931, and major development areas
19
British period: The advent of British rule still saw fairly extensive uninhabited lands with development potential either under forest cover or in permanent fallow. The economic and political interests of the colonial power have had a significant impact on inter-regional population transfer and settlement expansion in most of the South Asian subcontinent, with the exception of Nepal, which was not under direct British rule. Thus, British India, taken as a whole, saw an 'unprecedented growth in population and in the cultivated area' (Farmer 1974).
In the traditionally populated areas of the river valleys/plains, lands abandoned due to famines, epidemics or to social insecurity were first to be resettled, and hence, acted as zones of population redistribution. Thus much of Uttar Pradesh and Bengal was being populated and cultivated .by the 1870s thereby affecting the population distribution pattern in a positive way. About the same time a number of pioneer rur,al settlements developed in the Bombay region, Malwa plateau and Kerala (Farmer 1974).
By the mid-19th century, the development of commercial agriculture (notably plantation agriculture) and mining provided focal points for an influx of population from either local densely populated areas or even from more distant parts of the subcontinent. There were three important areas where the traditional patterns of population distribution were altered very substantially:
a) A strip of the Western Ghats covering the Kadur and Hassan districts of Mysore (now Karnataka), Travancore, Coorg and the Nilgiri of Kerala, Coimbatore and Malabar districts of Madras (now Tamilnadu) where tea, coffee and rubber plantations are located. The plantations were dependent upon in-migrant Indian labour - mainly from Tamil and Malayalam and neighbouring areas in the Deccan as well as from local tribal regions. The economic success of the plantations also attracted people from the plains who settled there to work either in agriculture or in other activities related to plantations (Fig 2.1).
b) A broad strip extending along the Brahmaputra valley from the districts of Darjeeling and Jalpaiguri in Bengal (west), across Cachar, Goalpara, Kamrup, Darang, Nowgong, Sibsagar and Lakshimpur in Assam, to the district of Sylhet (now in Bangladesh). This area became important for tea plantations and some mining industries! (Davis 1951). By 1902, nearly 25 per cent (about 469,000 ha.) of the settled area was held by the plantations, although only about 1/3 of this area was actually under cultivations (Griffiths 1967). However, in this case a long distance population transfer was required to supply labourers for the plantations and the mining areas. Labourers were brought to settle in this region from as far as Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and some from Berar and Madras. Between 1911-21, the peak period of the plantations, about 770,000 labourers were settled in Assam (Rasmussen 1960).
As in South India, the changing economic role of the Assam area also attracted more people to settle in the Brahmaputra valley - they were mostly farmers from the Bt?ngal plain. Their in-movement was facilitated by the extension of railway links and the opening up of the Brahmaputra river route by steamer services, coupled with the availability of cultivable land on generally favourable terms. Consequently, the popUlation of Assam rose from 2.6 million in 1901 to 6.7 million in 1951, just after the Partition when·the first post­ independence census was conducted. The growth of population in Assam from 1881 to 1931 was more than 100 % - such an increase was to be found only in a few other areas in
20
India during the same period (Geddes 1941); this extensively affected the existing distribution pattern of the population.
In Sri Lanka, planned population transfer onto the plantations also led to the process of population redistribution and the development of pioneer settiements. At about the same time when plantations were being developed in India, the Sri Lankan population was too small to meet the demand for labour in its expanding plantations. During most of the last century and early this century about 60 per cent of the population lived in the wet zone in southwestern Sri Lanka which covers about 113 of the total area of the island country· (ESCAP 1976). Thus the distribution of the population was very uneven. Since most plantations were established in the peripheral wetland and central and some parts of central­ north Sri Lanka, a high degree of population transfer was inevitable. During the early stages of plantation development Sri Lankan labour showed little interest in abandoning traditional agricultural practices to work on the plantations. Consequently labourers were brought in from the Deccan in the southern part of India.
As indicated earlier, the development of communication systems, particularly railways and several river routes, and of specialized economic nodes, led to the redistribution of sizeable populations from Bihar, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and a few other places in the Deccan to labour attracting areas within India as well as within what is now Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and even Burma. c) A third type of population transfer affecting population patterns in a number of places may be termed the redistribution and colonization of the farming population. One important region where such a population moved in was the newly irrigated plains in the Punjab, popularly called the 'canal colonies', which initially covered about 2.2 million ha of land, almost all of which had previously been wasteland or subject to nomadic pastoralism or occupied by dry farming (Darling 1947). It was solely the construction of the irrigation network that enabled the new settlers to cultivate hitherto arid or semi-arid doabs (interfluves) of the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej - the greater part of which now fall in Pakistan. This canal irrigation and opening up of new agricultural land resulted in a great increase of rural in-migration from adjoining areas as well as from the western Gangetic plain. Thus, the massive migration of farmers to the Punjab canal colonies dating back to 1887-88 led to population increases in this region (Gupta 1967). For example, in Lyallpur district alone, between 1891 and 1951, the population increased from about 60,000 to about 2 million. Most settlers came from eastern Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat. A similar process of settlement expansion and population increase in the lower Indus plain in Sind, though slow, was well marked after 1901, following the construction of the Jamrao canal from the east Nara river. It attracted rural to rural migrants from Punjab, Rajasthan and Cutch.
The scale of colonization of non-irrigated but wet valleys in the Brahmaputra can only be cotrlpared with that of the Indus. This sparsely populated rich tract of land (density: 39 persons per sq km in 1900-1) of the Brahmaputra valley in Assam was an immediate attraction to the inhabitants of the relatively densely populated Bengal plain in the south (density: 195 persons per sq km in 1900-1). The high fertility of the virgin wet soils and the low rents prevailing at that time induced many farmers from Bengal to settle in this valley. There is evidence that the earlier pioneering movement by Bengalis into the Assam valley was the consequence of the Penilanent Land Settlement Regulation, which lead to
21
the imposition of excessive taxation by the Zamindars, the forced cultivation of indigo and the general deterioration of the economic condition of farmers and village craftsmen (Panadikar 1926; Majumdar 1943 and Kling 1960). This was reinforced in later periods by the rising density of population in Bengal (particularly in East Bengal) which started to put pressure on agricultural lands there (Fig 2.1).
Between 1891-1901, the influx of settlers into Assam was rather slow. The 1911 census first reported a wave of settlers modifying the density and distribution of population in Goalpara and a few other districts. The census recorded a total of 118,000 persons born outside Assam, of whom 77,000 were from the districts of Mymensingh, Pabna, Bogra and Rangpur in East Bengal. In-migration to the Assam valley from East Bengal increased from 120,000 in 1911 to 301,000 in 1921, and to 496,000 in 1931. Of these, 37,000, 172,000 and 221,000 respectively were from Mymensingh alone. In 1951, just after the Partition of India, out of the total population of 6.7 million in Assam valley, 1.1 million were classified as born outside the valley. It should be noted that more than 80 per cent of the settlers were Muslims, in contrast to the indigenous population comprised mostly of Hindus.
Although Nepal was not under British rule, it was not left unaffected by colonial economic interests. As a result of the Anglo-Nepalese war of 1814 and the subsequent treaty the Tarai reverted to forest, thus providing a natural barrier. This situation, which remained unchanged until the beginning of the century, adversely affected earlier movements to and from the peripheral Tarai areas. Meanwhile, the 1816 modification of the Anglo-Nepalese treaty authorized the British to recruit Nepalese hill people to their army. Since the families tended to join the soldiers, quartered in cantonments, this provided a great impetus for the hill people to migrate to India. As a result, a number of Nepalese settlements developed in Bakloh, Dharamsala, Dhera Dun, Bhaksu, Darjeeling, Shillong and in a few other places in India. Later, Nepalese labourers also moved into the railway yards and to the tea plantations and mining areas in Assam and West Bengal (Kansakar 1979).
Post-Partition period and the impact of the Partition of India, 1947: A demographically significant population shift affecting the regional population distribution took place as a result of the Partition of India in 1947. Soon after the Partition, the earlier dynamics of population redistribution were overshadowed by the large scale population exchange based on religious/communal criteria amongst the newly created states of Pakistan, India and East Bengal (initially East Pakistan, now Bangladesh). This exchange of population continued for some time but after a few years, the Partition, having created new political entities, put an enormous restriction on population mobility between the countries in the subcontinent and consequently on earlier trends of population redistribution in South Asia.
In the pre-Partition period, the Hindu majority area covered about 2/3 of the South Asia subcontinent's area and included about 3/4 of its population, while 3/5 of the Muslims were to be found in two blocks - in the northwest and the northeast. The rest were scattered in several pockets of concentration in Hindu dominated areas of north and central India. Shortly after the Partition, the concentration of population by religious belief became more exclusive and distinctive as a result of a selective population exchange based on religion. This process was accentuated by communal riots in a number of places and a large scale disruption of social and economic life of the Muslims in the Hindu .dominated areas and of the Hind.us aQd the Sikhs in the Muslim dominated areas.
22
As a result of this exchange, about 5 million Hindus and Sikhs left Pakistan for India and about 6 million Muslims moved into Pakistan from India. This·. raised the proportion of Pakistan's Muslim population from 79 % in 1941 to 97 % in 1951. In East Bengal, the emigration of the Hindus to India and immigration of the Muslims from India raised the proportion of Muslims from 71 % to 75 % during the same period, and to a little over 80 per cent in 1961. In India the process raised the proportion of Hindus to about 83 % in 1951, with a corresponding decline in the Muslim population to 11 %, with other groups, including the Sikhs, accouO{ing for the remaining 6 %.
After the Partition, many Muslim farmers who had settled in the Brahmaputra valley in Assam in the earlier decades had to migrate back to East Bengal. A two-way movement of the farming population took place between Gujarat (India) and Sind (Pakistan) on one hand, and between East Punjab and Rajasthan (India) and West Punjab (Pakistan) on the other. The Indian census of 1951 enumerated a total of 7.30 million refugees, of whom 4.70 million and 2.55 million had come from West Pakistan and East Bengal respectively (0.05 million unspecified) to settle in India. Immigration continued and during the following decade slightly more than 1 million Hindus from West Pakistan and 1.5 million from the East entered and settled in India (Visaria 1969). The impact of this type of population influx and exchange is reflected in changes in the religious structures of the concerned countries and to a marked degree in the redistribution of their populations.
Mass movements of population once again affected the subcontinent in the early 1970s. Mutual antagonism between Bengali and non-Bengali populations over economic and political issues led to a civil war in Pakistan and resulted in the Independence of Bangladesh in 1971, and consequently, in the mass emigration of both Hindu and Muslim Bengali population to India in 1971. It is estimated that about 10 million people thus left Bangladesh (India 1971; and Chen 1973). In the following year most returned home, but some Hindus preferred to stay in India. Their exact number is, however, not known. Also, a sizeable non-Bengali Muslim population left Bangladesh for Pakistan and some for India in exchange for the Bengalis from Pakistan. Almost all these types of population exchange ultimately tend to lead to population redistribution in the form of demographic absorption and resettlement within the receiving countries.
Minor population transfers: In addition to major flows related to the postwar partition of South Asia, there were several minor migrations related to political events in the area.
Increasing Chinese pressure culminating in the invasion and incorporation of Tibet and the subsequent suppression of the Tibetan uprising of 1958-59 led to substantial outflows. The present numbers .of Tibetans are estimated at 80,000 in India and 8,000 in Nepal (Tab l.3). They settled mainly in the mountains. Major Tibetan centres in Nepal are Kodari, Tapapani, Kushadevi, Pokhara-Hemoza and the area around Kathmandu. In India most such settlements are located in the northeastern sub-Himalayan areas, northern Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, but some are also located further south.
A similar population dislocation from northern Burma (mainly the Arakan region) took place due to religious and racial harassment of Burmese Muslims. The persecution of this group actually started in 1942, and between 1942 and 1977 about 400,000 Burmese Muslims left Arakan and settled in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Thailand and in a few west Asian countries. In 1978, a large number of Burmese Muslims arrived in Bangladesh. Some 222,000 were registered in 13 camps (Tab 14.6). Nearly all were repatriated in the
23
following year after negotIatIons between the governments of Burma and Bangladesh. However, almost an equal number is believed to have been outside the camps - these have either assimilated with the local population or later left Bangladesh.
Redistribution of PopUlation in the Countries of South Asia
Detailed information on population redistribution processes is rarely recorded in the censuses carried out in South Asia. Nevertheless, mobility is quite considerable and not limited to local moves. Typical examples are the movement of agricultural population from north-central India to the northwest India, and from east-central districts to south and northwestern districts in Bangladesh. This permanent settlement necessarily affects the distribution of population at the destinations. This process has been generated in many parts of South Asian countries under two sets of conditions:
i) increasing popUlation density resulting in local pressure on land leading to out­ migration (densely popUlation areas emerging as origins of migrants due to labour­ surplus condition and increase in the proportion of landless farmers), and
ii) agricultural innovation and improved farm management (due to the introduction of High Yielding Variety (HYV) rice and wheat, and to the expansion of deep tubewell and canal irrigation).
Also significant for some countries, such as Sri Lanka, is the expansion of settlement by planned resettlement programmes in less populated but agriculturally potential areas.
These aspects of popUlation redistribution will now be discussed for the major countries in South Asia.
Bangladesh
In Bangladesh, a steady process of population redistribution is taking place due to high population pressure per unit area in recent alluvial plains as well as to agricultural innovations. As a result, the inhabitants from more densely populated mid-eastern districts are gradually moving out to settle in: (a) less densely populated parts of northern and southwestern Bangladesh where expansion of deep tubewell irrigation (and some canal irrigation) has allowed cultivation of HYV rice and wheat, and where crops are less liable to damage due to flood or river erosion; and (6) new char (new alluvium/small island) areas in southern Bangladesh which have shown enormous promise in growing varieties of rice in recent years. This type of movement of the farming population is corroborated by very high rates of population change in these areas during recent decades (Elahi and Chowdbury 1976). The movement was further facilitated by the growth of some local industrial areas (as in western Bangladesh) as well as by improvements in the transportation system. It has also been observed that the regions of very high density and areas of below average national density of population recorded the highest positive change in population. Such regions are: Dacca and most districts of western Bangladesh (Tab 2.1). The regions of slow population increase (below average) were found around the areas of very high density and high population increase or around the areas having important urban centres. Apart from the
24
Tab 2.1 Density, population change and net migration in Bangladesh
Den,il~ in I Y7~ DI'lrlCI, (pel'>on,
per 'q I-m)
DmaJpur .'li\7
Ban,al 712 Palual-hah ~2h
1~ m~n'ingh -1)7
T<lncall hJ11
Dacca I 100
hmupur h~6
S~ Ihel 3lJ2 ('on1llla 92.' ' oal-halt {'2:! Chlllil!!ong 664 ( hlll,lgong 11 111 '1 raCh J'I
B,mglade,h '.'\6
Tab 2.2 Net migration rate by states, India. I'lSI-61.
ndhra Prad.:,h
rale
Il.l)~
I 67 - O.::!::!
50.3 ~J.5
J2.6 JS 7 447 .12.0
-UI .fl
h 'Ofe
Ori ....... ,1 Punlan RaJa'lh,1Il I amll 'adu Cllar I'r.II.1.:,h \\':'llknl!ill
r-;~I migration rat~ (0,,).
1l)61-llJ7~
11.2 20.1) IU ~.7
25
Tab 2.3 Percentage distribution of migrants by migration streams. India. 1961-71
1961 1':171 11gra\llln 'lr.:am, TOlal Male ".:male Total Male Fcmal.:
Rural 10 rural 73.7 567 IlI.3 713 535 7M.X rban to rurill 3.6 ·u~ 3.2 4.<) 61 44
Rural to urban 14.5 25.7 9.7 15.U :!6.1 10.3 rban to urban It! 13.D 5.1! X,X 143 6.5
Source: Chatterjee 1974.
natural growth of population itself, the regional redistribution of population in terms of population shift in the areas having a concentration of urban-industrial centres and of agricultural population, as indicated above, well explain such a pattern in population growth and variation (Elahi and Chowdhury 1976).
Another factor contributing to urban growth was the pattern of settlement of post­ Partition Muslim migrants from India who established themselves in the urban areas and in a few satellite townships in Bangladesh. The process of their settlement was completed by 1965-66. After the 1971 War of Liberation and the emergence of Bangladesh a substantial number of these people opted for Pakistan and left Bangladesh.
India
For India, trends in the distributional pattern of population have their long established history. Premi (1974) indicated that during 1951-61, the states of Assam, West Bengal, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar. Orissa and Mysore gained in population due to in­ migration; while there was out-migration from Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Maharashtra (Tab 2.2). In the following decades there were some significant changes in the trend. In India, as in Bangladesh, the rural to rural shift of population has been well marked. If urban to rural and rural to rural flows are put together, their proportion amounts to over 77 % of all migrants in 1961 and over 76 % in 1971. These percentages were even higher for women, 84 and 83 % respectively (Tab 2.3).
It should be noted that the year 1971 was followed by a period of substantial progress in agriculture in India. This, as well as further urban growth seems to have affected the population shift in urban and rural areas to different degrees throughout the country (Chatterjee 1974).
Thus until the very recent decades, the major direction of population shift in India has been, in general, towards the east and west (Fig 2.2 and 2.3). As noted by Gupta (1968), of the total migrants in 1951-61,35.2 % moved into the east (West Bengal and Assam), followed by 25.3 %' into the west (Maharashtra region), 16.3 % into the northwest (Uttar Pradesh and Delhi regions), 15.6 % into the centre (Madhya Pradesh) and only 7.6 % into the south (Mysore). This trend persisted in later decades as well, as seen from the pattern of migration shown by the 1971 census (Fig 2.2) and by the total population change during the last decade (Fig 2.3).
26
Pakistan
~ q~
__ --~--~-----3000
Similar patterns of population distribution and settlement have occurred in Pakistan, Unfortunately. very little statistical information is available on this aspect. except for data on refugees (Muhajirs) from India to Pakistan.
~ ., 7", ".
~ . 70~
~~I>
Percenlage decade vaflallon
o 200 400 600 km , I , ,
Pakistan. like other South Asian countries. experienced slow urbanization. However, large urban centres in Pakistan had one thing in common - they provided sanctuaries to a sizeable refugee population from India after the Partition. Muslim refugees swelled the population of these cities despite a large emigration of Hindus and Sikhs. It should be noted that by 1951, about.6.7 million Muslims who had moved into Pakistan accounted for about
28
Tab 2.4 Proportion of refugees in the population of major urban centres in Pakistan. 1951.
Towl urban P.:rc.:nI3gc III
Karachi I.OoS 57 ahor.: 1149 40
Hydcrabad 242 oS
Lyallpur 179 711 iall.o\ 16X :\3
P.:,ha\\ ar 151 I:! Gujram~ala 121 51 QU.:IW 1i4 :!9
argodha 7 o.
ul."ur 77 55 Jhang 95 3. Mardan 7 4
ahiwal 75 44 Ku\uT 74 10 GUJrtll 60 I:! Baha\\ alpur .4 .,- Wah 37 II}
Source: Burki 1975.
25 % of the total population of the country. This sizeable refugee influx had a significant impact on existing patterns of population distribution and on the regional density of population in the country. By 195 L 46 % of the refugees had settled in 19 major urban centres in Pakistan (Tab 2.4). In six larger cities they constituted more than 50 % of the population. Presumably. the rest spread out to settle in smaller towns and rural areas in Pakistan (Burki 1973b).
Apart from resettlement of a sizeable refugee population in the irrigated plains of Punjab, Sind and a few other places, the rural to rural shift of population within Pakistan has been small. There are two significant features of rural to urban population redistribution: (a) small landowning farmers rent their land and move with their families to nearby agricultural towns, and (b) landless farmers tend to travel longer distances to larger cities leaving their families behind (Burki 1973a). The former group tends to contribute to the process of population redistribution to a marked extent. This has led to the faster growth of small and large towns (about 6 % a year) compared to major cities (4.6 % a year) (Burki 1974). This trend was significant in agricultural development in the hinterland during the late 1960s. Small scale sales and service enterprizes for agricultural implements and farming products spring up in a number of towns particularly in the Punjab. Small landholders and landless farmers were attracted to such places by investment and employment opportunities respectively . In Sind, small urban centres were developing rapidiy into small market towns and attracting popUlation from nearby rural areas. In other areas,
29
as in the North West Frontier Province, Baluchistan and part of Punjab, where irrigation facilities are limited and agricultural development is slow and seasonal, a large number of artisans moved into the regional towns (Burki 1974).
Nepal
The population of Nepal was quite small at the beginning of this century, but has doubled since then (Tab 2.5). For some years the rate of growth of popUlation fluctuated quite considerably. The pre - 1920 decline of population is ascribed to the influenza epidemic of 1918-19 and to conscription for World War I according to the Anglo-Nepalese agreement. The 1930 census was vitiated due to under-enumeration:· with the conscription experience of World War I still recent, people' tended to avoid the census count for fear of being conscripted anew, this time for a possible war with Tibet.
Tab 2.5 Growth of population in Nepal, 1911 - 1971.
PerCentage chilnge Pupulatlon U' C\lmpUrCu In
'yeilr, 10 million, pre\ illu, cen'lI'
19 I I S.t'> .. -I.::! 19:!D 5.57 - D.7 I<J)D 5.5) 13.5 19-11 t'>.::! 31.5 19,-.. .20 13.9 1961 9.-11 22.1'1 1<J71 115t'>
Sources: Shrestha 1967, MacFarlene 1976, and Nepal 1965 and 1975
As a result, the population of Nepal apparently declined between 1911 and 1930. However, after 1930 the population showed a visible sign of increase. It grew 1.2 % a year from 1930 to 1941, and as much as 2.4 % a year from 1941 to 1954. In recent decades the population of Nepal is showing more moderate and steady rates of increase. This is the result of both disease control, including progress against malaria, and immigration of population, mainly from adjacent areas of India.
The regional variations in popUlation distribution are governed by terrain, local climate, soil and accessibility. The high hills, covering about 39 % of the area of Nepal. support about 10 % of the population; the foot hills (including the valleys), with 44 % of the area, contain 51 % of the population, while the Tarai plain, with 21 % of the area, accommodates about 39 % of the population. Additionally, because of ecological reasons, population density generally declines from east to west (Shrestha 1980).
30
In recent decades, the dynamics and direction of population redistribution have changed considerably in Nepal. Population shifts have been both horizontal: from east and central parts to the far east as well as to west; and vertical: from up-hill to the valley and the Tarai areas. Economic prospects in western Nepal in recent decades have been encouraging many settlers to move in.
Large scale deforestation in the hills, eradication of malaria in the Tarai and improvement in road transportation have all been encouraging the hill population to move into the valleys and to the Tarai. At the same time, poor economic conditions in the hills and rural areas have also been compelling many to move into a few urban centres in Nepal and some to the industrial districts of north and northeast India or to rural settlements of Sikkim, Darjeeling and Assam. It is estimated that about 0.5 million Nepalese have thus settled in India in recent decades.
It should be noted that the migration from the hills to the Tarai and the Inner Tarai, which was once considered the solution to increasing population pressure in the hills, has turned out to be a serious problem threatening the conservation of the valuable forest wealth of the country and often resulting in increasing soil erosion and siltation of river beds. The situation already calls for rethinking of resettlement programmes taking ecological considerations into account within a broad population redistribution policy in the country. There is evidence that the government of Nepal is following this strategy and with this end in view, has undertaken a number of resettlement programmes in the country. Some of them were sponsored by the Nepal Resettlement Company and others by the Resettlement Department. The projects envisage the development of those new areas where neither the social and religious interests of individuals or communities nor the ecological balance are adversely affected. They also envisage giving priority in the distribution of land to the local landless poor and those from the hills (Kansakar 1979).
Sri Lanka
In Sri Lanka, a major feature of the population redistribution was the settlement of Indian immigrants in the plantations as labourers in the southwestern and south-central regions during the last quarter of the 19th century. Long before this, however, some agricultural and fishing populations from South India had inhabited the plains and coastal areas of Sri Lanka respectively. The Tamils of Sri Lanka owe their origins to these pioneers. For a long time the flow of migrant labour into the country was to a large extent determined by the prosperity of the plantation industry. Until early this century, net migration accounted for a major share of the total growth of p