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Population GrowthPopulation Growth
What does Texas look like today?What does Texas look like today? What are the implications of migration?What are the implications of migration? What does this mean for Texas?What does this mean for Texas?
Total Population GrowthTotal Population Growth
1970 -- 11.2 million1970 -- 11.2 million 1990 -- 17 million1990 -- 17 million 1994 -- 18.4 million1994 -- 18.4 million 2000 -- 20.3 million2000 -- 20.3 million
Recent Growth (2000)Recent Growth (2000)
Texas -- grew by 380,975Texas -- grew by 380,975 Immigrants -- 35.4% (Mexico and Latin Immigrants -- 35.4% (Mexico and Latin
America)America)
Murdock Report 1996Murdock Report 1996
Reasons:Reasons:
– Increase in size of populationIncrease in size of population
– demand for public programsdemand for public programs
– budgetary implicationsbudgetary implications
Other ReasonsOther Reasons
California Proposition 187California Proposition 187 anti-immigration sentimentanti-immigration sentiment use of public funds for some programs:use of public funds for some programs:
– educationeducation– health carehealth care
Federal government to pick-up tabFederal government to pick-up tab Guest worker programGuest worker program
Net MigrationNet Migration
Cohort component:Cohort component:– Anglos (non-Hispanic whites)Anglos (non-Hispanic whites)– Blacks (non-Hispanic Blacks)Blacks (non-Hispanic Blacks)– Hispanics of all racesHispanics of all races– others (all others not Hispanic)others (all others not Hispanic)
Movement into and out of state from other Movement into and out of state from other nations and statesnations and states
Assumes current migration rateAssumes current migration rate Program costs (1990 - 1995):Program costs (1990 - 1995):
– labor force rateslabor force rates– incarceration ratesincarceration rates– householder rateshouseholder rates– Welfare user ratesWelfare user rates
ImmigrationImmigration
Key determinants of growthKey determinants of growth– immigrants from other states in U.S.immigrants from other states in U.S.– immigrants from other nationsimmigrants from other nations– their descendents their descendents
Increased DiversityIncreased Diversity
Anglo -- increase by 20.4% Anglo -- increase by 20.4% Black -- increase by 62 %Black -- increase by 62 % Hispanic -- increase by 257.6 percentHispanic -- increase by 257.6 percent other == 648.4 %other == 648.4 %
ResultsResults
Reduces relative growth rate of labor force Reduces relative growth rate of labor force due to an aging populationdue to an aging population
Lowers the educational attainment and skill Lowers the educational attainment and skill level of labor forcelevel of labor force
reduces wage and salary level of labor forcereduces wage and salary level of labor force
Policy ImplicationsPolicy Implications
Increased growth in human services, job Increased growth in human services, job training, and educational programs for older training, and educational programs for older persons and minority groupspersons and minority groups
Lower socioeconomic resources due to Lower socioeconomic resources due to more minority households (poorer)more minority households (poorer)
faster projected growth of minority faster projected growth of minority populationspopulations
Reduces the overall socioeconomic welfare Reduces the overall socioeconomic welfare of state of state – decreased consumer expenditures decreased consumer expenditures – decreased tax revenuesdecreased tax revenues
Study resulted in Closing the Gap initiatives Study resulted in Closing the Gap initiatives for Texas universitiesfor Texas universities– Minority studentsMinority students– First-generation studentsFirst-generation students
Types of immigrants:Types of immigrants:– refugeesrefugees– temporary labor migrantstemporary labor migrants– without documentswithout documents– all other kinds of legal immigrantsall other kinds of legal immigrants
Eligibility for Public ServicesEligibility for Public Services
Refugees eligible upon arrivalRefugees eligible upon arrival permanent resident aliens not immediately permanent resident aliens not immediately
eligibleeligible illegal migrants -- lowest probability of illegal migrants -- lowest probability of
seeking public assistance due to fear to seeking public assistance due to fear to deportationdeportation