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Population Considerations for the Nuclear Field
Danny Smith, PhD, PECOPAFS Quarterly Meeting
June 3, 2011
PREVIEW
• Basic Nuclear Concepts
• Shoreham (Wading River, New
York)
• Fukushima Daiichi (Okuma and
Futaba)
• Chernobyl (Pripyat, Ukraine)June 3, 2011 2
Basic Nuclear Concepts
Radiation versus Radioactive Material
Radiation: energy, transience
Radioactive Material: substance, persistence
June 3, 2011 3
Basic Nuclear Concepts
Chronic Dose versus Acute Dose
Chronic: smaller exposures, longer exposure periods, genetic damage
Acute: larger exposures, shorter exposure periods, immediate tissue damage
June 3, 2011 4
Basic Nuclear Concepts
Time, Distance, Shielding
Time: minimum exposure duration
Distance: maximum distance from source
Shielding: maximum absorber between source and receptor
June 3, 2011 5
Basic Nuclear Concepts
Latent Cancer Goal
10 probability of fatal cancer for members of the public
Higher probability allowed for nuclear workers
-6
June 3, 2011 6
Basic Nuclear Concepts
Dose Perspective (in mSv per yr or
event) 0.04 NY to LA flight 0.4 Dose from typical diet 1 EPA public dose limit 2 Natural background 10 average CT scan 100 Evident lifetime cancer increase 1000 Temporary radiation sickness 10000 Fatal dose100000 Immediate fatal dose
June 3, 2011 7
Shoreham (Long Island)
Background• On Long Island Sound about 60
miles from Manhattan• Largely rural in 1960’s• Increasing demand for electric
power---------------------
• LILCO filed NRC application for 540 MW nuclear plant in 1968
• Estimated cost of $70 million
June 3, 2011 8
Shoreham
Complications• Increased designed output to
820 MW• Two additional plants proposed
by LILCO closer to Manhattan• Protests by residents killed
plans for the two additional plants
• Three Mile Island Accident in 1979
• Revamped NRC regulations• Chernobyl accident in 1986• Long Island demographics
changed
June 3, 2011 9
Shoreham
Key Events• 1981NRC declared the design safe• 1983 Suffolk County declared
evacuation impossible; Gov. Cuomo concurred
• 1985 NRC approved low-power testing
• Equivalent to 2 full power days• 1989 Gov. Cuomo and LILCO
reached agreement on shutdown of ShorehamJune 3, 2011 10
Shoreham
Consequences• Shoreham sold to LIPA for $1• $6 billion cost of Shoreham to be
repaid with electricity surcharge• $50 million paid to Philadelphia
Power to take slightly used fuel• $186 million cost of
decontamination and decommissioning
• NEVER connected to the gridJune 3, 2011 11
Shoreham Twin at Waterford, CT
• 50 miles away on Long Island Sound
• Operational in 5 years• Cost $100 million• Continued operation until 1998
What was the difference?
June 3, 2011 12
Fukushima Daiichi
Background•6 Boiling Water Reactors: 3 operating, 3 under maintenance (total 4700 MW)•Located in the towns of Okuma and Futaba, Fukushima Prefecture •Approximately 50,000 households within 20 km•Design basis 19 foot tsunami
June 3, 2011 13
Fukushima Daiichi
Accident Sequence•Tohoku Earthquake: auto shutdown•46 foot tsunami•Offsite Power: connection destroyed•Diesel Generators: flooded•Battery Power: limited life•Hydrolysis via hot zirconium cladding•Hydrogen conflagration
June 3, 2011 14
Fukushima Daiichi
Reactor Consequences•Partial core meltdown in Units 1, 2, 3•Hydrogen explosions in Units 1 and 3; Unit 2?•Exposed spent fuel in Unit 1, 3, and 4 pools?•Release of about one tenth of the activity released from Chernobyl•24 million gallons of contaminated water•Accident rating of 7 for Units 1, 2, and 3 •Goal: cold shutdown in 6 to 9 months•Estimated 30 years to clean up site
June 3, 2011 15
6
Fukushima Daiichi
Demographic Consequences•20 km exclusion zone•30 km evacuation zone•Extermination of contaminated livestock•Destruction of contaminated crops•Water contamination scare in Tokyo
June 3, 2011 16
Basic Nuclear ConceptsDose Perspective (in mSv per yr or event) 0.04 NY to LA flight 0.4 Dose from typical diet 1 EPA public dose limit 2 Natural background 10 average CT scan 100 Evident lifetime cancer increase 1000 Temporary radiation sickness 10000 Fatal dose100000 Immediate fatal dose
June 3, 2011 16b
Fukushima Daiichi
Worker Dose and Implications for
Oldsters •Normal worker dose Limit: 50 mSv•250 mSv for emergency conditions•Dose is based on latent cancer risk•Latent cancer incubation period: 20 to 30 years •Older workers asked to volunteer•Skilled Veterans Corps
June 3, 2011 17
Fukushima Daiichi
Skilled Veterans Corps
“Radiation exposure of the generation that will reproduce the next generation should be avoided.”
-- Yasuteru Yamada (age 72)
June 3, 2011 18
Chernobyl
Consequences•Dozens of deaths from acute exposure•Thousands of excess cancer deaths•30 km exclusion zone•140 million curies released•Damage: $100’s of billions•Population displaced: over 100,000
June 3, 2011 19
Basic Nuclear ConceptsDose Perspective (in mSv per yr or event) 0.04 NY to LA flight 0.4 Dose from typical diet 1 EPA public dose limit 2 Natural background 10 average CT scan 100 Evident lifetime cancer increase 1000 Temporary radiation sickness 10000 Fatal dose100000 Immediate fatal dose
June 3, 2011 19b
Chernobyl: Contaminated Areas
June 3, 2011 20
Chernobyl
Interesting USSR Responses •Distribution of contaminated foods throughout Russian republics•By decree, radiation from Chernobyl not allowed as cause of death•“Washing” of clouds moving toward Moscow
June 3, 2011 21
Chernobyl
Washing of Clouds •Seeding to cause rainfall•Less populated area selected (Novozibkov) •Total population of about 70,000•Approximately 10,000 times greater than normal radioactive material in soil•95% of dose to downwinders is from food, water, and milk intake•Coffin supplement
June 3, 2011 22