Population Change in Arizona, Texas and the United States: Implications for Education and Economic Development Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice

Population Change in Arizona, Texas and the United States: Implications for Education

and Economic Development

Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Steve H. Murdock, DirectorHobby Center for the Study of Texas

and Allyn and Gladys Cline Professor of Sociology

Rice University

Morrison InstitutePhoenix, Arizona

April 27, 2012

Major Topics of the Presentation__________________________

• Population Change• Increasing Racial/Ethnic Diversity• Aging of the Population• Implications of Demographic Change for

Education and Economic Development


Total Population and Percent Population Changein Texas and the United States, 1850-2010

Total Population Percent Change

Year Texas U.S. Texas U.S.1850 212,592 23,191,876 --- ---1860 604,215 31,443,321 184.2 35.61870 818,579 39,818,449 35.5 26.61880 1,591,749 50,155,783 94.5 26.01890 2,235,527 62,947,714 40.4 25.51900 3,048,710 75,994,575 36.4 20.71910 3,896,542 91,972,266 27.8 21.01920 4,663,228 105,710,620 19.7 14.91930 5,824,715 122,775,046 24.9 16.11940 6,414,824 131,669,275 10.1 7.21950 7,711,194 150,697,361 20.2 14.51960 9,579,677 179,323,175 24.2 19.01970 11,196,730 203,302,031 16.9 13.41980 14,229,191 226,545,805 27.1 11.41990 16,986,510 248,709,873 19.4 9.82000 20,851,820 281,421,906 22.8 13.22010 25,145,561 308,745,538 20.6 9.7

Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census April 1 of reported year.


Change 2000-2010

State2000

Population2010

Population Numeric Percent

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6

Virginia 7,078,515 8,001,024 922,509 13.0

Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 830,419 14.1

Colorado 4,301,261 5,029,196 727,935 16.9

Nevada 1,998,257 2,700,551 702,294 35.1

Ten States in the United States with theLargest Numeric Population Increase 2000-2010

Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.Source: U.S. Census Bureau


Change 2000-2010

State2000

Population2010

Population Numeric Percent

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7

Nevada 1,998,257 2,700,551 702,294 35.1

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6

Utah 2,233,169 2,763,885 530,716 23.8

Idaho 1,293,953 1,567,582 273,629 21.1

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6

Colorado 4,301,261 5,029,196 727,935 16.9

South Carolina 4,012,012 4,625,364 613,352 15.3

Ten States in the United States with theLargest Percentage Population Increase 2000-2010

Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.Source: U.S. Census Bureau


Ten States in the United States with theLargest Numeric Population Increase 2010-2011

Population values as of April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2011.Source: U.S. Census Bureau


15-month Change Annualized Change2010 - 2011 2010 - 2011

2010 2011

State Population Population Numeric Percent Numeric Percent

United States 308,745,538 311,591,917 2,846,379 0.92 2,277,103 0.74

Texas 25,145,561 25,674,681 529,120 2.10 423,296 1.68

California 37,253,956 37,691,912 437,956 1.18 350,365 0.94

Florida 18,801,310 19,057,542 256,232 1.36 204,986 1.09

Georgia 9,687,653 9,815,210 127,557 1.32 102,046 1.05

North Carolina 9,535,483 9,656,401 120,918 1.27 96,734 1.01

Washington 6,724,540 6,830,038 105,498 1.57 84,398 1.26

Virginia 8,001,024 8,096,604 95,580 1.19 76,464 0.96

Arizona 6,392,017 6,482,505 90,488 1.42 72,390 1.13

Colorado 5,029,196 5,116,796 87,600 1.74 70,080 1.39

New York 19,378,102 19,465,197 87,095 0.45 69,676 0.36

Ten States in the United States with theLargest Percentage Population Increase 2010-2011

Population values as of April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2011.Source: U.S. Census Bureau


15-month Change Annualized Change2010 - 2011 2010 - 2011

2010 2011

State Population Population Numeric Percent Numeric Percent

United States 308,745,538 311,591,917 2,846,379 0.92 2,277,103 0.74

Texas 25,145,561 25,674,681 529,120 2.10 423,296 1.68

Utah 2,763,885 2,817,222 53,337 1.93 42,670 1.54

Alaska 710,231 722,718 12,487 1.76 9,990 1.41

Colorado 5,029,196 5,116,796 87,600 1.74 70,080 1.39

North Dakota 672,591 683,932 11,341 1.69 9,073 1.35

Washington 6,724,540 6,830,038 105,498 1.57 84,398 1.26

Arizona 6,392,017 6,482,505 90,488 1.42 72,394 1.13

Florida 18,801,310 19,057,542 256,232 1.36 204,985 1.09

Georgia 9,687,653 9,815,210 127,557 1.32 102,040 1.05

North Carolina 9,535,483 9,656,401 120,918 1.27 96,741 1.01

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, “Unauthorized Immigrant Population: National and State Trends, 2010.”

Number and Percent of Unauthorized Immigrants by State, Ranked by Percent of State’s Population that is Unauthorized, 2010


Population (in thousands)

Unauthorized Immigrants

State 2010 Number Percent

United States 154,939 8,000 5.2%

Nevada 2,655 190 7.2%

California 37,210 2,550 6.8%

Texas 24,858 1,650 6.7%

New Jersey 8,743 550 6.2%

Arizona 6,559 400 6.0%

Maryland 5,702 275 4.6%

Florida 18,492 825 4.5%

District of Columbia 600 25 4.5%

Georgia 9,722 425 4.4%

New Mexico 1,997 85 4.3%

Oregon 3,854 160 4.3%

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, “Unauthorized Immigrant Population: National and State Trends, 2010.”

Number and Percent of Unauthorized Immigrants by State, Ranked by Percent of State’s Labor Force that is Unauthorized, 2010


Labor Force (in thousands)

Unauthorized Immigrants

State 2010 Number Percent

United States 154,939 8,000 5.2%

Nevada 1,367 140 10.0%

California 18,811 1,850 9.7%

Texas 12,261 1,100 9.0%

New Jersey 4,679 400 8.6%

Arizona 3,116 230 7.4%

Georgia 4,777 325 7.0%

Florida 9,064 600 6.6%

Maryland 3,100 190 6.2%

District of Columbia 339 20 6.1%

New Mexico 909 50 5.6%

Illinois 6,719 375 5.6%

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010

Population Population Change Percent of Total Population

Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent Percent of Total Change 2000 2010

NH White 194,552,774 196,817,552 2,264,778 1.2 8.3 69.1 63.7

Hispanic (All Races) 35,305,818 50,477,594 15,171,776 43.0 55.5 12.5 16.3

NH Black 33,947,837 37,685,848 3,738,011 11.0 13.7 12.1 12.2

NH Asian 10,123,169 14,465,124 4,341,955 42.9 15.9 3.6 4.7

NH Other 7,492,308 9,299,420 1,807,112 24.1 6.6 2.7 3.0

Total 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7 100.0 100.0 100.0

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.

Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L. 94-171.

Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu


Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L. 94-171


Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population 18 and Older by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010


Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent

Percent of Total

Change 2000 2010

NH White 150,525,687 157,100,990 6,575,303 4.4 25.9 72.0 67.0


NH Black 23,337,573 27,323,665 3,986,092 17.1 15.7 11.2 11.6

NH Asian 7,702,895 11,288,995 3,586,100 46.6 14.1 3.7 4.8

NH Other 4,598,380 5,503,718 905,338 19.7 3.6 2.2 2.3

Total 209,128,094 234,564,071 25,435,977 12.2 100.0 100.0 100.0

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under 18 Years by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010



NH White 44,027,087 39,716,562 -4,310,525 -9.8 -228.4 60.9 53.5


NH Black 10,610,264 10,362,183 -248,081 -2.3 -13.1 14.7 14.0

NH Asian 2,420,274 3,176,129 755,855 31.2 40.0 3.3 4.3

NH Other 2,893,928 3,795,702 901,774 31.2 47.8 4.0 5.1

Total 72,293,812 74,181,467 1,887,655 2.6 100.0 100.0 100.0




Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010



NH White 10,933,313 11,397,345 464,032 4.2 10.8 52.4 45.3


NH Black 2,364,255 2,886,825 522,570 22.1 12.2 11.3 11.5

NH Asian 554,445 948,426 393,981 71.1 9.2 2.7 3.8

NH Other 330,141 452,044 121,903 36.9 2.8 1.6 1.8

Total 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 100.0 100.0 100.0




Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population 18 Years and Older by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010



NH White 8,426,166 9,074,684 648,518 7.7 19.6 56.3 49.6


NH Black 1,631,448 2,076,282 444,834 27.3 13.4 10.9 11.4

NH Asian 415,219 716,968 301,749 72.7 9.1 2.8 3.9

NH Other 209,327 268,659 59,332 28.3 1.8 1.4 1.5

Total 14,965,061 18,279,737 3,314,676 22.1 100.0 100.0 100.0




Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under 18 Years by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010



NH White 2,507,147 2,322,661 -184,486 -7.4 -18.8 42.6 33.8

Hispanic (All Races) 2,386,765 3,317,777 931,012 39.0 95.1 40.5 48.3

NH Black 732,807 810,543 77,736 10.6 7.9 12.4 11.8

NH Asian 139,226 231,458 92,232 66.2 9.4 2.4 3.4

NH Other 120,814 183,385 62,571 51.8 6.4 2.1 2.7

Total 5,886,759 6,865,824 979,065 16.6 100.0 100.0 100.0




Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the TotalPopulation by Race/Ethnicity for Arizona, 2000 and 2010



NH White 3,274,258 3,695,647 421,389 12.9 33.4 63.8 57.8

Hispanic (All Races) 1,295,617 1,895,149 599,532 46.3 47.5 25.3 29.6

NH Black 149,941 239,101 89,160 59.5 7.1 2.9 3.7

NH American Indian/ Alaska Native 233,370 257,426 24,056 10.3 1.9 4.5 4.0

NH Asian 89,315 170,509 81,194 90.9 6.4 1.7 2.7

NH Other 88,131 134,185 46,054 52.3 3.7 1.7 2.1

Total 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6 100.0 100.0 100.0

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.



Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population 18 and Over by Race/Ethnicity for Arizona, 2000 and 2010



NH White 2,595,584 3,017,895 422,311 16.3 42.3 69.0 63.4

Hispanic (All Races) 802,474 1,191,203 388,729 48.4 38.9 21.3 25.0

NH Black 103,257 172,249 68,992 66.8 6.9 2.7 3.6


NH Asian 69,331 132,317 62,986 90.8 6.3 1.8 2.8

NH Other 50,099 74,132 24,033 48.0 2.4 1.3 1.6

Total 3,763,685 4,763,003 999,318 26.6 100.0 100.0 100.0




Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population Less Than Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for Arizona, 2000 and 2010



NH White 678,674 677,752 -922 -0.1 -0.4 49.6 41.6

Hispanic (All Races) 493,143 703,946 210,803 42.7 80.4 36.1 43.2

NH Black 46,684 66,852 20,168 43.2 7.7 3.4 4.1

NH American Indian/ Alaska Native 90,430 82,219 -8,211 -9.1 -3.1 6.6 5.0

NH Asian 19,984 38,192 18,208 91.1 6.9 1.5 2.3

NH Other 38,032 60,053 22,021 57.9 8.4 2.8 3.7

Total 1,366,947 1,629,014 262,067 19.2 100.0 100.0 100.0




Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the TotalPopulation by Race/Ethnicity for the Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ

Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010



NH White 2,140,171 2,460,541 320,370 15.0 34.0 65.8 58.7


NH Black 113,179 193,497 80,318 71.0 8.5 3.5 4.6


NH Asian 65,563 134,415 68,852 105.0 7.3 2.0 3.2

NH Other 57,829 92,054 34,225 59.2 3.6 1.8 2.2

Total 3,251,876 4,192,887 941,011 28.9 100.0 100.0 100.0




Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population Less Than Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ

Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010



NH White 459,500 480,208 20,708 4.5 8.8 52.6 43.4


NH Black 36,563 56,184 19,621 53.7 8.4 4.2 5.1


NH Asian 15,322 31,810 16,488 107.6 7.0 1.8 2.9

NH Other 25,424 42,912 17,488 68.8 7.5 2.9 3.9

Total 873,084 1,107,561 234,477 26.9 100.0 100.0 100.0




Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity

for Maricopa County, Arizona, 2000 and 2010



NH White 2,034,530 2,240,055 205,525 10.1 27.6 66.2 58.7


NH Black 108,521 177,490 68,969 63.6 9.3 3.5 4.6


NH Asian 64,562 128,301 63,739 98.7 8.6 2.1 3.4

NH Other 55,492 83,278 27,786 50.1 3.7 1.8 2.2

Total 3,072,149 3,817,117 744,968 24.2 100.0 100.0 100.0




Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population Less Than Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity

for Maricopa County, Arizona, 2000 and 2010



NH White 440,658 434,210 -6,448 -1.5 -3.6 53.2 43.1


NH Black 35,321 51,727 16,406 46.4 9.1 4.3 5.1


NH Asian 15,112 30,518 15,406 101.9 8.6 1.8 3.0

NH Other 24,497 39,020 14,523 59.3 8.1 3.0 3.9

Total 828,003 1,007,861 179,858 21.7 100.0 100.0 100.0





for Phoenix, Arizona, 2000 and 2010



NH White 736,844 672,573 -64,271 -8.7 -51.6 55.8 46.5


NH Black 63,756 86,788 23,032 36.1 18.5 4.8 6.0


NH Asian 25,453 43,894 18,441 72.5 14.8 1.9 3.0

NH Other 23,548 29,173 5,625 23.9 4.5 1.8 2.0

Total 1,321,045 1,445,632 124,587 9.4 100.0 100.0 100.0





for Phoenix, Arizona, 2000 and 2010



NH White 160,778 123,216 -37,562 -23.4 -145.0 42.0 30.2


NH Black 21,194 25,138 3,944 18.6 15.2 5.5 6.2

NH American Indian/ Alaska Native 6,923 6,637 -286 -4.1 -1.1 1.8 1.6

NH Asian 6,071 10,171 4,100 67.5 15.8 1.6 2.5

NH Other 10,107 13,122 3,015 29.8 11.6 2.6 3.2

Total 382,435 408,341 25,906 6.8 100.0 100.0 100.0




Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for Tucson MSA, Arizona, 2000 and 2010



NH White 518,720 541,700 22,980 4.4 16.8 61.5 55.3


NH Black 24,047 31,075 7,028 29.2 5.1 2.9 3.2


NH Asian 16,595 24,592 7,997 48.2 5.9 2.0 2.5

NH Other 14,985 20,536 5,551 37.0 4.1 1.8 2.1

Total 843,746 980,263 136,517 16.2 100.0 100.0 100.0





for Tucson MSA, Arizona, 2000 and 2010



NH White 95,081 81,367 -13,714 -14.4 -78.7 45.7 36.1


NH Black 6,769 7,688 919 13.6 5.3 3.3 3.4

NH American Indian/ Alaska Native 7,661 7,235 -426 -5.6 -2.4 3.7 3.2

NH Asian 3,206 4,504 1,298 40.5 7.5 1.5 2.0

NH Other 6,016 8,353 2,337 38.8 13.4 2.9 3.7

Total 207,896 225,316 17,420 8.4 100.0 100.0 100.0





for Tucson, Arizona, 2000 and 2010



NH White 263,748 245,323 -18,425 -7.0 -55.1 54.2 47.2


NH Black 19,795 23,362 3,567 18.0 10.7 4.1 4.5


NH Asian 11,537 14,211 2,674 23.2 8.0 2.4 2.7

NH Other 10,019 12,136 2,117 21.1 6.3 2.1 2.3

Total 486,699 520,116 33,417 6.9 100.0 100.0 100.0





for Tucson, Arizona, 2000 and 2010



NH White 44,648 34,166 -10,482 -23.5 -600.0 37.3 28.2


NH Black 5,584 5,691 107 1.9 6.1 4.7 4.7

NH American Indian/ Alaska Native 2,287 2,478 191 8.4 10.9 1.9 2.0

NH Asian 1,992 2,212 220 11.0 12.6 1.7 1.8

NH Other 3,945 4,674 729 18.5 41.7 3.3 3.9

Total 119,617 121,364 1,747 1.5 100.0 100.0 100.0




Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2000

39.541.6

45.0 45.043.1 44.4

47.8

53.0

57.260.2

63.566.4 67.1

72.6

44.041.3

38.0 38.440.5

38.635.3

30.526.7

24.222.4

20.6 20.316.7

< 5

year

s

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic


Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2010

31.733.2

35.236.7

39.2 40.3 39.641.2

45.0

50.7

55.358.7

62.3

67.6

50.649.1

46.944.9

42.8 41.8 42.140.1

36.7

31.7

27.825.2

23.220.5

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

Anglo Hispanic


0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 74

75 - 79

80 - 84

85 +

600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000

Texas Age Distribution April 1, 2010 Hispanic Population and White, Not Hispanic Population

Hispanic

White, Not Hispanic

Population

Ag

e

Males Females

Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

17.719.3 19.9 20.3 19.8 19.3 19.4 20.5 20.6 21.9

25.3 26.5 27.2

39.8

69.967.8 66.5 65.5 66.0 66.8 66.4

64.362.6

60.6

56.7 55.252.3

37.1

< 5

year

s

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic


Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000




< 5

ye

ars

5 t

o 9

10

to

14

15

to

19

20

to

24

25

to

29

30

to

34

35

to

39

40

to

44

45

to

49

50

to

54

55

to

59

60

to

64

65

+ y

ea

rs

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

50

.8

53

.3

55

.1

56

.0

57

.6

57

.9

57

.6

59

.4 63

.3 67

.6 70

.8 73

.5

76

.2 80

.0

49

.2

46

.7

44

.9

44

.0

42

.4

42

.1

42

.4

40

.6

36

.7

32

.4

29

.2

26

.5

23

.8

20

.0

Anglo Non-Anglo

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 74

75 - 79

80 - 84

85 +

10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000

United States Age Distribution April 1, 2010 Hispanic Population and White, Not Hispanic Population

White Not Hispanic Hispanic

Population

Ag

e

Males Females



Arizona Population Age Distribution April 1, 2010 Hispanic Population and Non-Hispanic Population

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 74

75 - 79

80 - 84

85 +

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Not Hispanic Hispanic

Population

Ag

e

Males Females

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS


Total and Percent of the United States Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and 2009

1999 2009

Populationin Poverty %

Median Household

Income* Population in Poverty %

Median Household

Income

Anglo 15,414,119 8.1 $58,523 19,462,966 10.0 $54,671

Hispanic 7,797,874 22.6 $43,442 11,130,896 23.5 $39,923

Black 8,146,146 24.9 $37,956 9,407,955 25.8 $33,463

Asian 1,257,237 12.6 $66,961 1,539,226 11.4 $68,780

Other 1,284,436 18.5 NA 1,327,120 18.4 NA

Total

33,899,812 12.4 $54,172 42,868,163 14.3 $50,221

*In 2009 Dollars

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009


Total and Percent of the Texas Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and 2009

1999 2009

Populationin Poverty %

Median Household

Income* Population in Poverty %

Median Household

Income

Anglo 826,459 7.8 $60,839

1,010,170 9.0 $59,836

Hispanic

1,658,434 25.4 $38,536

2,364,407 26.4 $35,628

Black 525,082 23.4 $37,803

630,479 23.1 $35,438

Asian

65,048 11.9 $64,576

105,186 12.1 $63,692

Other 42,586 13.9 NA 40,000 11.9 NA

Total

3,117,609 15.4 $51,506

4,150,242 17.2 $50,043

*In 2009 DollarsSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009

Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for Arizona, 1999 and 2010

Race/

Ethnicity

1999 2010

Population in Poverty

%Median

Household Income*


%Median

Household Income

NH White 249,381 7.8 $57,785 406,995 11.2 $51,642

Hispanic (All Races) 28,798 19.9 $44,401 63,436 25.1 $36,351

Black 310,381 24.5 $41,457 494,637 26.6 $36,622

American Indian/ Alaska Native

91,998 37.3 $32,086 101,556 36.9 $29,487

Asian 11,042 12.3 $59,950 20,311 11.9 $63,376

Total 698,669 13.9 $53,086 1,094,249 17.4 $46,789

*In 2010 Dollars

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 American Community Survey


Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA, Arizona, 1999 and 2010

Race/

Ethnicity

1999 2010


%Median

Household Income*


%Median

Household Income

NH White 136,127 6.5 $63,651 245,303 10.1 $55,879


Black 194,576 24.4 $44,439 330,811 27.2 $37,048


19,033 29.1 $41,080 22,901 27.0 $34,575

Asian 7,420 11.1 $66,540 13,863 11.0 $68,449

Total 383,484 12.0 $58,730 672,299 16.3 $50,385

*In 2010 Dollars



Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for Tucson MSA, Arizona, 1999 and 2010

Race/

Ethnicity

1999 2010


%Median

Household Income*


%Median

Household Income

NH White 47,482 9.4 $52,632 64,818 12.3 $49,145


Black 55,860 22.9 $39,499 81,675 24.5 $35,848


9,345 35.2 $34,325 12,071 38.9 $28,605

Asian 2,760 16.8 $41,457 3,942 15.7 $60,260

Total 120,778 14.7 $48,113 169,852 17.8 $44,274

*In 2010 Dollars



Educational Attainment for the United States Population Age 25 and Older

by Race/Ethnicity, 2009

RaceEthnicity

Population Age 25 and

Older

Less than high

school

High school

diploma

Some college or associates

degreeBachelor or more

Non-Hispanic White 139,962,199 9.6 29.3 30.0 31.1Black 22,975,410 18.6 31.6 32.2 17.6Hispanic* 26,106,587 39.1 26.2 22.1 12.6Asian 9,404,493 14.7 16.0 19.6 49.7Total 201,952,383 14.7 28.5 28.9 27.9________

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2009.

*Includes Hispanic persons of all races.

Educational Attainment for the Texas Population Age 25 and Older

by Race/Ethnicity, 2009

RaceEthnicity


Older

Less than high

school

High school

diploma

Some college or associates

degreeBachelor or more

Non-Hispanic White 8,026,049 8.3 25.3 32.5 33.9Black 1,705,709 15.0 30.4 36.5 18.1Hispanic* 4,876,517 42.5 25.2 21.4 10.9Asian 580,159 14.2 15.4 17.2 53.2Total 15,361,557 20.1 25.4 28.9 25.5________

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2009.

*Includes Hispanic persons of all races.

Educational Attainment for the Population Age 25 and Older by Major Race/Ethnic Groups in 2010, Arizona

Race/ Ethnicity


Older

Less than High

School

High School

Diploma

Some College or Associates

Degree

Bachelor Degree or

MoreNon-Hispanic White 2,722,084 6.6 24.1 37.8 31.5Black 152,212 10.9 26.3 41.7 21.1Hispanic* 966,077 35.4 27.9 26.4 10.3


155,332 26.2 32.8 33.2 7.8

Asian 120,526 12.2 17.1 21.3 49.4Total 4,146,758 14.4 25.1 34.7 25.9

*Hispanic includes persons of all races.



Educational Attainment for the Population Age 25 and Older by Major Race/Ethnic Groups in 2010, Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale MSA, Arizona

Race/ Ethnicity


Older

Less than High

School

High School

Diploma


Degree

Bachelor Degree or

MoreNon-Hispanic White 1,788,467 6.1 23.6 37.5 32.8Black 122,022 11.1 27.5 40.9 20.5Hispanic* 615,315 37.5 28.4 24.3 9.7


47,818 21.0 34.3 35.8 9.0

Asian 93,374 11.9 16.5 21.8 49.8Total 2,689,621 14.0 24.8 34.0 27.2




Educational Attainment for the Population Age 25 and Older by Major Race/Ethnic Groups in 2010, Phoenix, Arizona

Race/ Ethnicity


Older

Less than High

School

High School

Diploma


Degree

Bachelor Degree or

MoreNon-Hispanic White 508,162 6.6 23.7 35.6 34.1Black 59,822 15.0 29.1 37.3 18.6Hispanic* 279,171 42.9 30.4 19.4 7.3


13,408 22.2 37.2 33.3 7.3

Asian 30,210 15.4 17.0 16.2 51.4Total 897,881 19.0 26.1 30.0 24.9




Educational Attainment for the Population Age 25 and Older by Major Race/Ethnic Groups in 2010, Tucson MSA, Arizona

Race/ Ethnicity


Older

Less than High

School

High School

Diploma


Degree

Bachelor Degree or

MoreNon-Hispanic White 408,633 5.8 21.4 35.6 37.2Black 20,874 9.6 24.4 44.8 21.3Hispanic* 181,621 29.0 25.3 31.8 13.9


18,378 27.1 32.1 29.5 11.3

Asian 17,716 9.8 22.8 17.6 49.8Total 649,176 13.0 22.8 34.3 30.0




PROJECTIONS


Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

White alone Black alone Asian aloneAll other

races2000 195,771 34,414 10,436 5,909 35,629 282,1582010 200,853 37,985 14,083 7,586 49,726 310,2332020 205,255 41,847 18,308 9,612 66,365 341,3872030 207,217 45,461 22,991 11,904 85,931 373,5042040 206,065 48,780 28,064 14,523 108,223 405,6552050 203,347 51,949 33,418 17,503 132,792 439,010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections

Year

(Resident population as of July 1. Numbers in thousands)Non-Hispanic

Hispanic (any race)

Total


Numeric Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions)

7.617.5

23.0

11.6

97.2

156.9

Non-HispanicWhite alone

Non-HispanicBlack alone

Non-HispanicAsian alone

Non-Hispanic allother races

Hispanic (anyrace)

Total



Projected Change in the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

Non-Hispanic White alone5%

Non-Hispanic Black alone11%

Non-Hispanic Asian alone15%

Non-Hispanic Other7%

Hispanic62%


Projected Age Distribution of the U.S. Population: 2000 to 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Under 5 years 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.45 to 19 years 21.7 20.3 19.9 19.7 19.4 19.320 to 44 years 36.9 33.8 32.7 32.0 31.5 31.745 to 64 years 22.1 26.1 24.7 22.6 22.7 22.465 to 84 years 10.9 11.1 14.1 17.0 16.5 15.885 years and over 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.3 3.5 4.3

Age Group(Percent of total resident population as of July 1)



Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2000

Non-Hispanic White alone

Non-Hispanic Black alone

Non-Hispanic Asian alone

Non-Hispanic all other races

Hispanic (any race)

Total

Total 69.4 12.2 3.7 2.1 12.6 100.0Under 5 years 58.7 14.4 3.6 3.8 19.5 100.05 to 17 years 62.1 15.0 3.4 3.1 16.4 100.018 to 24 years 62.0 13.9 4.2 2.5 17.4 100.025 to 44 years 67.4 12.5 4.4 1.9 13.8 100.045 to 64 years 76.7 10.4 3.5 1.5 7.9 100.065 years and over 83.7 8.0 2.3 0.9 5.0 100.0

65 to 74 years 81.6 8.7 2.7 1.1 5.9 100.075 to 84 years 85.8 7.2 2.0 0.8 4.1 100.085 years and over 86.9 7.3 1.5 0.7 3.6 100.0


Age(Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1)


Projected Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2050

Non-Hispanic White alone

Non-Hispanic Black alone

Non-Hispanic Asian alone

Non-Hispanic all other races

Hispanic (any race)

Total

Total 46.3 11.8 7.6 4.0 30.2 100.0Under 5 years 37.1 11.1 5.9 6.5 39.4 100.05 to 17 years 38.3 11.3 6.0 5.7 38.6 100.018 to 24 years 39.6 11.6 6.4 4.9 37.5 100.025 to 44 years 43.6 12.1 7.8 4.1 32.4 100.045 to 64 years 49.7 12.8 8.9 3.1 25.5 100.065 years and over 58.5 11.2 8.4 2.1 19.8 100.0

65 to 74 years 54.5 12.1 9.3 2.4 21.7 100.075 to 84 years 58.2 10.9 8.8 2.0 20.2 100.085 years and over 67.4 9.9 5.9 1.8 15.1 100.0


Age(Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1)


Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

2000 11,074,716 2,421,653 6,669,666 685,785 20,851,820

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration

2010 11,331,872 2,627,276 8,060,601 783,198 22,802,9472020 11,381,128 2,771,387 9,336,516 841,654 24,330,6852030 11,171,420 2,823,280 10,576,253 878,107 25,449,0602040 10,733,052 2,796,629 11,662,260 893,129 26,085,070

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000

2010 11,533,974 2,754,744 9,080,436 961,458 24,330,6122020 11,796,493 3,052,401 11,882,998 1,273,896 28,005,7882030 11,789,298 3,268,616 15,140,100 1,632,575 31,830,5892040 11,525,112 3,403,169 18,804,298 2,028,622 35,761,201

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

2010 11,739,988 2,888,448 10,252,220 1,177,909 26,058,5652020 12,227,547 3,361,700 15,226,387 1,921,059 32,736,6932030 12,442,107 3,783,673 21,871,386 3,020,458 41,117,6242040 12,376,308 4,140,673 30,604,622 4,585,897 51,707,500


2010 11,369,946 2,778,528 9,827,743 1,129,429 25,105,6462020 11,461,192 3,106,273 13,922,261 1,762,813 30,252,5392030 11,299,159 3,355,344 19,032,000 2,646,377 36,332,8802040 10,899,933 3,523,778 25,325,641 3,832,576 43,581,928

Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by

Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other

2000 53.1 11.6 32.0 3.3


2010 49.8 11.5 35.3 3.42020 46.7 11.4 38.4 3.52030 43.8 11.1 41.6 3.52040 41.2 10.7 44.7 3.4


2010 47.4 11.3 37.3 4.02020 42.2 10.9 42.4 4.52030 37.0 10.3 47.6 5.12040 32.2 9.5 52.6 5.7


2010 45.1 11.1 39.3 4.52020 37.3 10.3 46.5 5.92030 30.3 9.2 53.2 7.32040 23.9 8.0 59.2 8.9


2010 45.3 11.1 39.1 4.52020 37.9 10.3 46.0 5.82030 31.1 9.2 52.4 7.32040 25.0 8.1 58.1 8.8

Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by

Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other

2000 53.1 11.6 32.0 3.3


2010 49.8 11.5 35.3 3.42020 46.7 11.4 38.4 3.52030 43.8 11.1 41.6 3.52040 41.2 10.7 44.7 3.4


2010 47.4 11.3 37.3 4.02020 42.2 10.9 42.4 4.52030 37.0 10.3 47.6 5.12040 32.2 9.5 52.6 5.7


2010 45.1 11.1 39.3 4.52020 37.3 10.3 46.5 5.92030 30.3 9.2 53.2 7.32040 23.9 8.0 59.2 8.9


2010 45.3 11.1 39.1 4.52020 37.9 10.3 46.0 5.82030 31.1 9.2 52.4 7.32040 25.0 8.1 58.1 8.8

Percent of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 andProjected Percent of Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from

2020 to 2040 for Texas Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex andRace/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration

Age Non-Hispanic Group White Black Hispanic Other Total

All Scenarios <18 23.0 31.7 35.8 26.1 28.2 18-24 8.8 11.2 13.2 11.2 10.6 25-44 30.1 32.1 31.8 37.7 31.1 45-64 24.4 17.7 14.0 20.1 20.2 65+ 13.7 7.3 5.2 4.9 9.9 Assuming Rates of Zero Migration 2020 <18 20.1 24.8 32.0 21.2 25.2 18-24 8.2 10.2 11.1 9.1 9.6 25-44 24.7 29.3 26.9 24.0 26.1 45-64 27.4 25.0 21.5 29.9 24.9 65+ 19.6 10.7 8.5 15.8 14.2 2040 <18 17.4 19.9 27.5 16.8 22.2 18-24 7.6 8.8 10.0 6.5 8.7 25-44 24.1 27.6 27.1 23.7 25.9 45-64 24.9 26.5 20.6 22.1 23.0 65+ 26.0 17.2 14.8 30.9 20.2

Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040* (in 2000 Dollars)


$54,441

$52,639

$50,903

$49,326

$47,883

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040


11.4

7.5

15.0

26.7

18.9

14.415.4

11.8

17.0

30.0

18.9

16.6

Family Households

Married Couple

Male Householder

Female Householder

Nonfamily Households

Total Households

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Percent in Poverty

2000 2040

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040


18.8

29 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.128.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate

Some College

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate/Prof.Degree

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Percent

2000 2040


Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States by Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000*

*From Census 2000 Public Use Microdata Sample (1% File)

$30,412

$42,271

$52,552

$80,950

$102,410

$32,473

$44,068

$54,467

$80,327

$104,294

Less ThanHigh School

High SchoolGraduate

Some College or Associate Degree

Bachelor'sDegree

Graduate/ProfessionalDegree

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Average Income

Texas United States

Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040*

Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates

*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

12.7

25.7

31.6

30.0

24.0

29.9

30.6

15.5

50.7

22.0

18.4

8.9

21.0

16.1

20.6

42.3

2.2

16.6

33.4

47.8

4.3

25.6

40.5

29.6

32.1

25.8

24.1

18.0

13.4

7.6

11.0

68.0

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc.

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

Percent

2000 2040

Black

Hispanic

Other

Anglo


Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under

Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*

*Source: Texas State Data Center. Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

$251

$621

$765

$938

$210

$528

$629

$752

2000Base Values

2040 Assuming2000 Attainment

Differentials

2040 Assuming1990-2000 Trends

in Differentials

2040 AssumingAnglo Trends

Apply to all Groups

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Billions

Aggregate Income Consumer Expenditures


The mark of a truly educated man is to be

moved deeply by statistics.

George Bernard Shaw

Arizona Population Age Distribution April 1, 2010 Hispanic Population and Non-Hispanic Population

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 74

75 - 79

80 - 84

85 +

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Not Hispanic Hispanic

Population

Ag

e

Males Females

Steve MurdockPhone: 210-867-4385

E-mail: [email protected]: http://hobbycenter.rice.edu

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Population Change in Arizona, Texas and the United States: Implications for Education and Economic Development Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice