Population change in a ‘divided society’: Population change in a ‘divided society’: internal migration, residential segregation internal migration, residential segregation

and contested discourses in Northern and contested discourses in Northern

IrelandIreland

Gemma CatneyGemma CatneyPhD Research StudentPhD Research Student

School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology (GAP)School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology (GAP)

Queen’s University, Belfast, UKQueen’s University, Belfast, UK

4th International Population Geographies Conference, Hong Kong, July 20074th International Population Geographies Conference, Hong Kong, July 2007

NI ‘conflict’NI ‘conflict’

Religion or community backgroundReligion or community background Categories used:Categories used:

Protestant and CatholicProtestant and Catholic

Religion, national identity, politics, culture, Religion, national identity, politics, culture, historyhistory

Segregation: residential, workplace, Segregation: residential, workplace, education, various social milieu education, various social milieu

‘‘Troubles’Troubles’ Led to interpretations as a ‘place apart’Led to interpretations as a ‘place apart’

Migration within NIMigration within NI Treatment of migration in the context of Treatment of migration in the context of

the ‘NI problem’the ‘NI problem’ Sensationalised discourses of Catholic Sensationalised discourses of Catholic

‘advance’, Protestant ‘retreat’, ‘Orange flight’‘advance’, Protestant ‘retreat’, ‘Orange flight’

That migration takes place because of That migration takes place because of ‘segregationist preferences’, and ‘segregationist preferences’, and reinforces residential segregationreinforces residential segregation

More ‘typical’ interpretations largely More ‘typical’ interpretations largely ignored ignored (Anderson and Shuttleworth 1994, 1998 and (Anderson and Shuttleworth 1994, 1998 and Power and Shuttleworth 1997)Power and Shuttleworth 1997)

Migration within NIMigration within NI

Intimidation, fear, hostility, etc. likely to Intimidation, fear, hostility, etc. likely to play a role for some people in some play a role for some people in some placesplaces

But, in reality, much more ‘normal’ than But, in reality, much more ‘normal’ than has been acknowledgedhas been acknowledged

Residential segregation now changing too Residential segregation now changing too (despite media assertions): decreasing, or (despite media assertions): decreasing, or at least not increasingat least not increasing

Migration within NIMigration within NI

So need to understand migration as a So need to understand migration as a PROCESSPROCESS

Two inter-related foci:Two inter-related foci: The relationship between migration and The relationship between migration and

religion (CB) in NIreligion (CB) in NI The impact internal migration has on The impact internal migration has on

residential segregation (reinforcement, residential segregation (reinforcement, erosion or creation?) erosion or creation?)

Under-explored and little understood Under-explored and little understood

Presentation outlinePresentation outline The geography of migration in NIThe geography of migration in NI

Mobility differentials Mobility differentials Migration ratesMigration rates

Internal migration and ‘religion’Internal migration and ‘religion’ Migration rates by community backgroundMigration rates by community background Local regression (GWR)Local regression (GWR) SI modellingSI modelling

Motivations, choice and constraintMotivations, choice and constraint ConclusionsConclusions

Religion question

Community background as alternative

Mobility differentialsMobility differentialsVariable Most mobile Least mobile

Age 20-24 (17.77%) 70-74 (2.45%)

Gender Female (7.89%) Male (7.29%)

Employment status Unemployed (9.85%) Employed (8.09%)

Qualifications Higher level qualifications (10.86%)

No qualifications (4.79%)

Community background

Protestant (7.50%) Catholic (7.49%)

Religion Catholic (7.19%) Protestant (7.11%)

% Migrants by age and gender (within NI, 2001)

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+

Age group (years)

% M

igra

nts

% Migrants (Total)

% Migrants (Male)

% Migrants (Female)

Catholic net migration rate (per 1000 pop.)

Protestant net migration rate (per 1000 pop.)

Net migration by CBNet migration by CB

Catholic inflow as a proportion of total inflow against % Catholic residential composition (Internal, 2001)

y = 0.9414x + 2.7567

R2 = 0.9355

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00

% Catholic residents

Cat

ho

lic in

-mig

rati

on

as

% t

ota

l in

-mig

rati

on

Global regression: migration and residential compositionGlobal regression: migration and residential composition

What is GWR?What is GWR?

Normal regression assumes that a relationship Normal regression assumes that a relationship between variables holds at each locationbetween variables holds at each location

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) accounts for spatial variations in the accounts for spatial variations in the relationships between variablesrelationships between variables

GWR produces regression coefficients at (the GWR produces regression coefficients at (the centroid of) each selected location, facilitating an centroid of) each selected location, facilitating an assessment of how the relationship between a assessment of how the relationship between a set of variables changes from place to placeset of variables changes from place to place

GWR and migrationGWR and migration

Local variations in the regression between Local variations in the regression between demographic composition and in- and out-demographic composition and in- and out-migration not accounted for with global migration not accounted for with global regressionregression

Useful in understanding these Useful in understanding these relationships, and in predicting future relationships, and in predicting future changechange

% residents by community background % residents by community background and by community background as and by community background as proportion of all in- and out-migrationproportion of all in- and out-migration

GWR: Catholic residents against Catholic in-GWR: Catholic residents against Catholic in-migrationmigration

GWR interpretationGWR interpretation Confusing picture!Confusing picture! Classifications useful to manage outputs Classifications useful to manage outputs

and pick out major trendsand pick out major trends Standard rates allow us to measure gains Standard rates allow us to measure gains

and losses of a given groupand losses of a given group But need another approach if want to But need another approach if want to

further understand further understand how how a group is a group is changing (e.g. through in- or out-migration, changing (e.g. through in- or out-migration, majority/minority differences, etc.)majority/minority differences, etc.)

GWR allows consideration of these issuesGWR allows consideration of these issues Using predictions for a given value for the Using predictions for a given value for the

independent (res comp)independent (res comp)

Class Overall effect Effect of in-migration

Effect of out-migration

I Group increased Increase in group

IMin Group increased where in a minority

Increase in group where in a minority

Balance? Where group in a majority

IMaj Group increased where in a majority

Increase in group where in a majority

Balance? Where group in a minority

R Group reduced Reduction in group

RMin Group reduced where in a minority

Reduction in group where in a minority

Balance? Where group in a majority

RMaj Group reduced where in a majority

Reduction in group where in a minority

I/R Balance? Increase in group

Reduction in group

R/I Balance? Reduction in group

Increase in group

O Other Varied effects

Spatial interaction modelling results (in brief!)Spatial interaction modelling results (in brief!)

Need to disentangle relative importance of Need to disentangle relative importance of and potential interplay between motivations, and potential interplay between motivations, choice and constraint choice and constraint

1. 1. Motivations for migrationMotivations for migrationLittle evidence for ‘flight’Little evidence for ‘flight’Likely that more ‘typical’ reasons are Likely that more ‘typical’ reasons are importantimportantFurther probing through qualitative Further probing through qualitative

researchresearch

2. 2. Choice and constraintChoice and constraint What informs the residential choice of What informs the residential choice of migrants?migrants? How far is residential composition How far is residential composition important?important?

Qualitative researchQualitative research

Selected case study areas (Belfast)Selected case study areas (Belfast)

• Semi-structured interviews with: Semi-structured interviews with: residents of case study areas (movers residents of case study areas (movers

and non-movers)and non-movers) key informants – property developers, key informants – property developers,

community representatives, etc.community representatives, etc.

• Plus additional focus groups (and mental Plus additional focus groups (and mental

mapping exercise)mapping exercise)

Transect: South BelfastTransect: South Belfast

Insights from qualitative researchInsights from qualitative research

Migration for more ‘typical’ reasons by far dominant :Migration for more ‘typical’ reasons by far dominant : Employment; life course factors – more space, garden, etc; Employment; life course factors – more space, garden, etc;

increased prosperity; health reasons; etc.increased prosperity; health reasons; etc.

Some movement for ‘sectarian’ reasons – intimidation Some movement for ‘sectarian’ reasons – intimidation mainlymainly

Where changes in the ‘religious’ composition of a Where changes in the ‘religious’ composition of a neighbourhood was cited, this was often one of many neighbourhood was cited, this was often one of many reasons, and/or associated with other n’hood changes, reasons, and/or associated with other n’hood changes, eg. The area had become “rougher”eg. The area had become “rougher”

Causes

Outcomes ‘Sectarian’ ‘Non-sectarian’

‘Sectarian’ 1 2

‘Non-Sectarian’ 3 4

(Adapted from Anderson and Shuttleworth 1998: 192)

More evidence that community background was More evidence that community background was important in choice of relocation, not the important in choice of relocation, not the decision to movedecision to move In some cases, this may have been to areas in which In some cases, this may have been to areas in which

the mover was in a majority by CBthe mover was in a majority by CB But often this was to areas they perceived as mixedBut often this was to areas they perceived as mixed

Even then, not all cited this as important (either Even then, not all cited this as important (either way)way)

Other factors more important in area choice: e.g. Other factors more important in area choice: e.g. fulfilment of factors which motivated movement fulfilment of factors which motivated movement (e.g. closer to work, larger property, etc.) and (e.g. closer to work, larger property, etc.) and other, additional factors (e.g. sense of other, additional factors (e.g. sense of community or privacy, rural living, etc.)community or privacy, rural living, etc.)

Insights from qualitative researchInsights from qualitative research

Insights from qualitative researchInsights from qualitative research Choice and constraintChoice and constraint

Why was community background important to some Why was community background important to some migrants in their choice of a new place of residence?migrants in their choice of a new place of residence?

Fewer cases of ‘pure’ sectarianism or intoleranceFewer cases of ‘pure’ sectarianism or intolerance Much more was fear of harassment, feeling would not Much more was fear of harassment, feeling would not

be welcome, and misunderstanding between the two be welcome, and misunderstanding between the two communitiescommunities

“ “Completely Catholic areas. Because, I mean, I wouldn’t Completely Catholic areas. Because, I mean, I wouldn’t get a chance to live in itget a chance to live in it” (Protestant female, 40, Protestant ” (Protestant female, 40, Protestant area)area)

“ “Areas that I would discount right away would be Areas that I would discount right away would be predominantly Protestant, Loyalist areas. I mean, that predominantly Protestant, Loyalist areas. I mean, that wouldn’t be an option…I think there’d be great unease for wouldn’t be an option…I think there’d be great unease for people moving into an area that’s not somewhere where people moving into an area that’s not somewhere where they are drawn from that communitythey are drawn from that community” (Catholic male, 50, ” (Catholic male, 50, Catholic area) Catholic area)

Some discussed how mixing desirable, but felt could Some discussed how mixing desirable, but felt could not move into a mixed areanot move into a mixed area

Institutional constraints?Institutional constraints?

ConclusionsConclusions Some insight into the geography of migration in NISome insight into the geography of migration in NI Methods for exploring the relationship between internal Methods for exploring the relationship between internal

migration and residential segregationmigration and residential segregation Variable from place to place, but broadly suggests a Variable from place to place, but broadly suggests a

decline in segregation due (at least in part) to migrationdecline in segregation due (at least in part) to migration ‘‘Religion’ less important in migration decision-making Religion’ less important in migration decision-making

and location choice than frequently asserted in particular and location choice than frequently asserted in particular representationsrepresentations

Where does appear to be important, need to understand Where does appear to be important, need to understand the possible interplay between motivations, choice and the possible interplay between motivations, choice and constraintconstraint

Allied research: ‘White flight’ and ‘self-segregation’ Allied research: ‘White flight’ and ‘self-segregation’ challenged in important research by Phillips (1998, challenged in important research by Phillips (1998, 2006), Simpson (2004, 2007), Stillwell and Phillips 2006), Simpson (2004, 2007), Stillwell and Phillips (2006)(2006)

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

My supervisor, Dr Ian Shuttleworth, for his My supervisor, Dr Ian Shuttleworth, for his comments and advicecomments and advice

NISRA, for the provision of Census dataNISRA, for the provision of Census data Department for Employment and Learning Department for Employment and Learning

(DEL), for funding(DEL), for funding Contested Cities, Urban Universities Contested Cities, Urban Universities

(CU2) research team and funding body (CU2) research team and funding body (European Programme Peace 2)(European Programme Peace 2)