Population and Growth

Overpopulation: Proponents and Critics

Malthus Basics

• Idea: late 1700’s– During this time (before the industrial revolution)

he predicted that the growing population would eclipse the available food supply.

– Created a relationship between population growth and available agriculture.

– People grow exponentially while agriculture can only grow linearly.

Malthus’ Theory

• Linear Growth: growth that occurs evenly across each unit of time. – Village of 100 @ linear growth • Each year the village would grow by 10.• Year 1: 110• Year 2: 120• Year 3: 130• After 10 years the village would have doubled to 200

Theory Cont’

• Exponential Growth: the growth of a population as a percent of the total population.– Village of 100 @ exponential growth• Year 1: 100 • Year 2: 110 • Year 3: 121• After 10 years the village would have more than

doubled to 234

Malthus Conclusion

• Population growth could only be curbed through catastrophic events.

• Population would eventually surpass available food resources which would cause mass starvation and create in of itself a growth barrier.

• Malthus at the time could not have for seen the future of food production which would mechanize agricultural production and eventually the scientific food revolution.

Neo-Malthusians

• Fear. Malthus theory could not have predicted the medical revolution (in LDC’s) which muted death rates, increasing NIR without creating wealth thus creating an environment ripe for conflict.

• This creates large gaps between population and available resources.

• Populations in LDC’s which lack wealth are seeing the most growth. Increasing the numbers of those ‘without’ to historic highs

Neo-Malthus Cont’

• Population growth is outpacing economic growth (which is happening) but all resources are dedicated to the growing population rather than the economy.

• This is creating developmental decline.• Belief that when there are no majority groups,

minority groups compete to become majority. Contributing to growth.

• Feel that this is applicable to MDC’s as well has some groups see TRF decline others grow.

Malthus Critics

• He was unable to predict that in fact a larger population would actually increase production, innovation and technology.

• Unjust social issues such as poverty and starvation are not a product of population growth but rather a product of unjust social and economic development

• It can be argued that increased population creates power—in turn creating an economic foothold.

Theory vs Reality

• In general his theory was flawed. • Food production has grown faster that the NIR

since the 1950’s• While population growth (in MDC’s) has

declined.• Starvation in the world does exist but not

because of the lack of food but the distribution of it.