pop2011-0003

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

1/33

1

WORKING PAPER

The Environmental Dimensions of Emigrationfrom Rural Mexico

Lori M. HunterSheena MurrayFernando Riosmena

March 2011

Population Program POP2011-03_____________________________________________________________________________

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

2/33

TheEnvironmentalDimensionsofEmigrationfromRuralMexico

LoriM.HunterDepartmentofSociology

CUPopulationCenter,InstituteofBehavioralScience,UniversityofColoradoatBoulder

SheenaMurrayDepartmentofEconomics


FernandoRiosmenaDepartmentofGeography


Donotcite.Ifinterestedinadditionalinformationonthestatusofthisresearch,

[email protected].

Preliminarymanuscriptpreparedforpresentationatthe2011meetingofthePopulation AssociationofAmerica,WashingtonDC.

Acknowledgements: PreliminarysupportforthisprojectprovidedbytheCenterfor

EnvironmentandPopulation(CEP)throughtheirSummerFellowshipProgram. Theworkhas

alsobenefitedfromtheNICHDfundedUniversityofColoradoPopulationCenter(grantR21

HD51146)forresearch,administrative,andcomputingsupport.Thecontentissolelythe

responsibilityoftheauthorsanddoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheofficialviewsofCEP,NIH,

orNICHD.

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

3/33

2

TheEnvironmentalDimensionsofEmigrationfromRuralMexicoLoriM.Hunter,SheenaMurrayandFernandoRiosmena

UniversityofColoradoatBoulder

Abstract: Inmanydevelopingcountries,naturalresourcedependencyisadaytodayrealityformanyruralhouseholds.Assuch,changesinweatherandclimatepatternsholdtremendous

potentialtoimpactlivelihoods.Whenlivelihoodoptionsareconstrainedduetoshiftsin

environmentalconditions,migrationbecomesasignificant,adaptivelivelihoodstrategy

reducinghouseholdvulnerability.Inthisproject,weofferapreliminaryanswertothequestion:

IsemigrationfromruralMexicototheU.S.associatedwithrecentpatternsofprecipitation,net

ofothersocioeconomicfactorsshapingmigrationpatterns?UsingdatafromtheMexican

MigrationProject(MMP),wemodelU.S.emigrationfromruralMexicancommunitiesasrelated

tocommunity,householdandenvironmentalfactors.Wefindthathouseholdssubjectedto

droughtconditionsarefarmorelikelytosendamigrantascomparedtothosesubjectedtowet

conditions.Theresultshaveimportantimplicationsforpolicyandprogrammaticresponseto

currentmigrationpressuresemphasizingdiversificationofruralMexicanlivelihoodsintheface

ofcontemporaryclimatechange.

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

4/33

1

TheEnvironmentalDimensionsofEmigrationfromRuralMexicoLoriM.Hunter,SheenaMurrayandFernandoRiosmena

UniversityofColoradoatBoulder

Public,policyandacademicrealmshavebeenpayingincreasingattentiontothepotential

forenvironmentalchangetoalterpatternsofhumanmigration.Evenso,littlepeerreviewed

scholarshipexistsontheconnection.Thisprojectcontributesempiricallywithfocuson

internationalmigrationfromruralMexico,bothasettingandsocialprocessofconsiderable

policyrelevance.

AfocusonthepotentialforenvironmentalpushfactorstoshapeMexicanmigrationis

especiallytimelynotonlybecauseofcontemporaryclimatechangebutalsobecauseof

heightenedattentiontotrendsinU.S.immigration.TheUnitedStateshad39millionforeign

bornresidentsin2009thehighestproportionofforeignborninanynation(Martinand

Midgley2010).Mexicocontinuestobealeadingsourceofbothauthorizedandunauthorized

immigrationtotheUnitedStates(Hoefer,RytinaandCampbell2007);About30percentofU.S.

legalimmigrants,andhalfoftheunauthorizedforeigners,arefromMexico(MartinandMidgley

2006).

Althoughsubstantialresearchhasexaminedthesocial,economic,andpolicydriversof

MexicanmigrationtotheU.S.(e.g.Cohen2004;Durandetal.1996;Kanaiaupuni2000;

HernandezLeon2008;LindstromandLauster2001;Masseyetal.1987;Massey,Goldring,and

Durand1994;MasseyandEspinosa1997;Masseyetal.2002;MasseyandRiosmena2010;

Riosmena2009;Rosas2008),farlessisknownabouttheenvironmentalpushfactorsrelated

toMexicoU.S.emigration(Nevins2007);Toourknowledge,theonlysuchpublishedwork

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

5/33

2

revealsintriguingstatelevelassociationsassociationsbetweenMexicanoutmigrationand

declinesincropyields(Fengetal.2010).Webelievetheprojectpresentedhere,atthe

householdlevel,istheonlyefforttodatemodelinginternationaloutmigrationfromrural

Mexicoasrelatedtoenvironmentalfactorsatgeographicscalesmoreprecisethanthestate.

Background

Thisprojecttakesplaceatthenexusoftwoliteratures:naturalresourcesandrurallivelihoods,

combinedwithmigrationasanadaptivelivelihoodstrategy,particularlyamongvulnerable

households. Theseliteraturesarebrieflyreviewedbelow,withspecificreferencetothe

Mexicansettingasavailablewithinexistingwork.

Rurallivelihoods,withfocusonnaturalresources:WeusetheconceptualframeworkofRuralLivelihoods(IFAD2010)whichhasbeenusedinawidevarietyofanalyticalendeavors

includingexplorationofhealthbehaviors(Rugalema2000),foodsecurity(Bank2005)and

householddiversificationstrategies(Yaro2006).Theframeworkclassifiesvariouscapital

assetsthatshapelivelihoodoptions,includinghumancapital(e.g.,labor),financialcapital

(e.g.,savings),physicalcapital(e.g.,automobiles),socialcapital(e.g.,networks),andnatural

capital(e.g.,wildfoods).Therelativeavailabilityofvariousassetsisshapedbyindividualand

householdactionsaswellasbroadersocioeconomicpoliticalstructuresandprocesses

(Bebbington1999).Inturn,availabilityshapeslivelihoodstrategieswhichmayincludehuman

capitaluse(e.g.,labormigration,seeCollinsonetal.2006a,2006bornaturalcapitaluse(e.g.,

makingresourcebasedcraftsformarket(Pereira,ShackletonandShackleton2006)).Ingeneral,

thelivelihoodsapproachhasprovenavaluabletoolinhighlightingthediversityanddynamism

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

6/33

3

ofthechoicesandactivitiesinwhichruralhouseholdsengagetomeethouseholdneeds

(Wintersetal.2002).

Focusingonnaturalcapital,inruralregionsoftheworldslessdevelopednations,proximate

naturalresources(e.g.,land,water,wildfoods)areoftenessentialinmeetingbasicliving

requirements(e.g.Nunan2010).Assuch,environmentalchangehasimmediateanddirect

impactsonthehealthandwellbeingofmillionsofhouseholds(KoziellandSaunders2001).

InruralMexicospecifically,naturalcapitalintheformoflandandwaterareespecially

centraltolivelihoods.Withafocusonfourcarefullyselectedcasestudycommunities,Wiggins

etal.(2002)detailthediversityofruralMexicanslivelihoods.Intheirstudy,households

typicallyhadfivesourcesofincomeandthegreatmajorityofhouseholdshadaccesstoplotsof

land. Fully78%farmed,predominantlymaizeandbeans.Yet,althoughfarmingwasthemost

frequentsourceofincome,itcontributedinmostcasesonlyarelativelysmallfractionof

householdincomes(onaverage,14percent).Burnstein(2007)alsonotesthatcorn,in

particular,continuestobe amainstayofMexicanrurallivelihoods,anditsproductionsustains

some15millionofMexicos103millionresidents.Overall,althoughfarmingisnotthemain

activityforsmallholdersinruralMexico,itisacentralcomponentofthediversificationof

livelihoods(deJanvryandSadoulet2001;Wigginsetal.2002).Inthisway,livelihoodsare

vulnerabletoclimaticvariabilitythatmayimpactagriculturalproductivity(Eakin2005).

KeytoexaminationofnaturalcapitalwithinMexicoisunderstandingofejidos rural

communitieswhichcollectivelypossessrightstolandandwhoseresidentmembers

(ejidatarios)areentitledtoworkaplotoftheirown(Wigginsetal.2002).Ejidoswerecreated

throughlandtransfersstartinginthe1930s.Thoughmarketliberalizationreformsduringthe

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

7/33

4

1990sallowedejidatariostoattainprivatetitlesofandthushavethecapacitytoselltheirlands,

veryfewhavesold(Barnes2009). Ofparticularrelevancetothepresentproject,itisestimated

thattheejidosectorcontainsapproximately60%oftheruralpopulation(deJanvryand

Sadoulet2001).Recentworksuggeststhatcontemporaryeffortstoprovideejidohouseholds

withacertificateoflandownershipareassociatedwithanincreaseinemigrationtotheU.S.,

therebyinferringthatmoresecureaccesstothisformofnaturalcapitalprovidesafoundation

fromwhichtoengageintherelativelyexpensivelivelihooddiversificationstrategyof

internationalmigration(Valsecchi2010). Assuch,ourmodelingstrategyincludesland

ownershipvariablesbothathouseholdandcommunitylevels.

Winters,DavisandCorral(2002)alsooutlinelivelihoodframeworksinruralMexico,

characterizingthediversityoflivelihoodactivitiesalthoughthecentralityofagricultureand

naturalcapitalremains.InWintersetal.s(2002)examinationofanationallyrepresentative

sampleofMexicanejidohouseholds,fully93.7%participatedincropproductionand

agriculturalactivitiesasawhole(crops,livestockandagriculturalemployment)madeupover

half(55%)oftotalruralhouseholdincome.Ofcourse,therearedistinctlivelihoodstrategies

dependingonwhetherruralMexicanhouseholdshaveaccesstoirrigatedorrainfedland.

Yetotherforcesbeyondthehouseholdclearlyalsoshapelivelihoodstrategies. Wintersand

colleagues(2002:141)aptlynotethatlivelihooddecisionmakingisconditionedonthecontext

inwhichthehouseholdoperatesinfluencedthroughnaturalforces,markets,stateactivity

andsocietalinstitutions.Inthisway,environmentalchangeactsinconcertwithpoliticaland

economicforcestoshapelivelihoodstrategiesand,forMexicossmallholderfarmers,recent

workhasdocumentedthenegativeimplicationsofthenationsglobaleconomicintegration

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

8/33

5

(Eakin2005).Afterdecadesofpublicinvestmentandsupportiveagriculturalpoliciesspurring

agriculturalgrowth,neoliberalizationoftheagriculturalsectorandfoodpolicyduringthe

Salinasadministration,19881994,broughtdramaticchangestoruralMexico.Today,Mexican

povertyhasfurtherconcentratedinthecountryside,particularlyintheSouth(e.g.Hanson

2003;Nevins2007;Polaski2004;Zepedaetal.2009).Informedbyunderstandingofrecent

politicaleconomicconditionsinMexico,tocontrolforbroader,changingmacroconditionsnot

capturedbyourcommunitySESmeasures,weincludebothstateandyearfixedeffectsinthe

modelspresentedbelow.

Rurallivelihoodvulnerabilityandadaptation,withfocusonmigration: ApplicationoftheRuralLivelihoodsframeworktoMexicanlivelihoodsandclimateisfurtherinformedbysocial

scienceresearchonvulnerabilityandadaptation.Vulnerabilityisdefinedasthedegreeto

whichasystem,subsystem,orasystemcomponentislikelytoexperienceharmdueto

exposuretoahazardeitherasaperturbationorstress/stressor(Turneretal.2003).As

explainedbyLeichenkoandOBrien(2002:2),withinthecontextofclimatestudies,

conceptualizationofvulnerabilityhasmostlyfocusedonmarginality,susceptibility,adaptability,

fragility,andrisk.Usingthesefactors,vulnerabilitymappinghelpsidentifyregionsparticularly

vulnerabletoclimateshifts(FussellandKlein2006;Hahn,RiedererandFoster2009;Ionescuet

al.2009;Polsky,NeffandYarnaletal.2007).Highlevelsofresourcedependencecontributeto

climatevulnerability(ThomasandTwyman2006)andregionsinwhichresidentsdependon

rainfedagriculture(suchasmostofourstudysites)areespeciallyvulnerable(ReidandVogel

2006).

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

9/33

6

Livelihooddiversificationistheprocessbywhichhouseholdsreducevulnerabilityasthey

seektoensurewellbeing(Ellis2000).Suchadaptationmayoccurinresponsetoclimate

vulnerability,withadaptationdefinedasadjustmentstoasysteminresponsetoactualor

expectedclimatestimuli,theireffects,ortheirimpacts(LeichenkoandOBrien2006).In

consideringvulnerabilityandadaptivepotential,Adger,PaavolaandHuq(2006:2)comment

theworldschangingclimateandourresponsestoitthreatentoexacerbatepreciselythose

trendsandpressuresthatcausepresentinsecuritiesandthatarelikelytoleadtoincreased

insecurityinthefuture.Theold,young,poor,andthosedependentonclimatesensitive

resources,includingalloftheworldsfarmersandfishers,areatgreatestrisk.

Migrationisaparticularadaptationstrategyusedbyhouseholdsinthefaceof

environmentalstrain(Bilsborrow1992;McLemanandHunter2010;McLemanandSmit2005;

NjockandWestlund2010;Nunan2010).Muchoftheexistingempiricalresearchonmigration,

livelihoodsandshiftsinnaturalcapitalfocusesonlandavailabilityand/orlandusedecisions,

andissituatedinAsia,andCentral/SouthAmerica(e.g.,Ayuwat1993;Snegstrom2009).Results

suggestwhenfacedwithalackoflivelihoodoptions,oftenduetocumulativeprocessesof

environmentaldegradation(Zweifler,GoldandThomas1994),householdsmaystrategically

diversifywithsomehouseholdmembersmigratingtoseekopportunityelsewhere(Bilsborrow

2002;Snegstrom2009;McLemanandHunter2010).Inthisway,changesinproximatenatural

capitalshapehouseholddecisionsaboutuseofhumancapital.

Fouradditionalstudiesdeservemention.Arecentone,undertakeninNepal,provides

evidencethatenvironmentalfactorsplayaroleinmigration,particularlyshortdistancemoves.

(Massey,AxinnandGhimire2010).Another,undertakeninEthiopia,evaluateshistorical

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

10/33

7

experiencegainedfromdroughtinducedmigration,findingthatfamilieswithmoresurvival

strategiestendedtoresistdistressmigrationlonger(MezeHausken2000:382).InBurkinaFaso,

Henryandcolleagues(Henry,SchoumakerandBeauchemin2004)demonstratethatresidents

ofdrierregionsaremorelikelytoengageinbothtemporaryandpermanentmigrationsto

otherruralareas,ascomparedtoresidentsofhighprecipitationregions.Findley(1994)

exploredthemigratoryimplicationsofMalidroughtandfoundthattheseveredroughtof1983

1985wasassociatedwithadramaticincreaseinmigrationofwomenandchildren,andalsoan

increaseinshorttermcyclicalmigration.

Withtheaboveworkasafoundation,aspateofnewresearchhasrecentlyemergedonthe

migrationenvironmentassociation.Overwhelmingly,therecentadditionsprovideevidenceof

lackof,andvariabilityin,naturalcapitalactingasapushfactorinoutmigration,inconcert

withotherinfluences. Asanexample,bringingthelivelihoodsframeworktoruralmigration

environmentissuesinChina,Qin(2010)findsthatruraloutmigrationisastrategythatlowers

dependenceonnaturalcapital,specificallyagricultureandotherproximatenaturalresources

usedforsubsistence. Lowernaturalcapitalintheformofsmallerfishcatchesintensifies

livelihoodvulnerabilityinEastAfrica,resultinginthemigrationoffisherfolk(Njockand

Westlund2010;Nunan2010).

BringingourattentiontoMexico,Eakin(2005)arguesthatunderstandingfarmersrangeof

livelihoodchoices,andlimitstotheiradaptivecapacity,isimportantinunderstandingrural

vulnerabilitiestoclimatechange.Indeed,environmentaltrendsclearlyshapehouseholdcoping

capacitysinceagriculturalyieldsareimpactedbyclimatefactors(Luersetal.2003).Related,

researchhasshownthatofffarmemploymentandmigrationappeartostabilizehousehold

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

11/33

8

livelihoodsthroughdiversificationandreducedenvironmentalreliance(DeJanvryandSadoulet

2001;Wigginsetal.2002).Suchlivelihooddiversificationisalsoimportanttoinsureagainst

incomerisksarisingfromcroppricefluctuations(Masseyetal.1993;StarkandBloom1985).

MigrationaslivelihooddiversificationinMexico,particularlyinlightofenvironmental

change,isalsosuggestedbyrecentlypublishedworkbySaldaaZorrillaandSandberg(2009)as

wellasbyFengetal(2010).Usingdatafromthe2,443municipalitiesofMexico,Saldaa

ZorrillaandSandbergseconometricanalysesrevealhigheremigrationratesfromMexican

municipalitiesmorefrequentlyaffectedbynaturaldisastersandwithrelativelyhigher

impoverishmentlevels.Operatingatthestatelevel,Fengetal.(2010)alsoidentifyan

environmentalpushwithintriguingstatelevelassociationsbetweendeclinesincropyields

andU.S.boundmigration.

Overall,existingscienceinseveralarenas naturalresources,livelihoods,vulnerabilityand

migrationasadaptation formsanimportantfoundationforbringingexaminationof

migrationenvironmentassociationstoruralMexico.Suchisespeciallythecasegiventhe

importantsocial,economicandpoliticalaspectsofMexicanmigrationtotheU.S.,asreviewed

next.

Mexicomigrationpatternsandprocesses: MexicanmigrationtotheU.S.hasalonghistory.Sustained,massivemovementoflabormigrantsdatesbacktorecruitmenteffortsby

U.S.employersintheearly20

th

Century(Gamio1930;Foerster1925;Cardoso1980).Migration

streamsplummetedduringtheGreatDepression(BalderramaandRodriguez2006;Hoffman

1924)butemergedagainduetoabinationallaboraccordwithMexico,theBraceroProgram,

initiatedin1942(Calavita1992).WhiletheBraceroProgramwasdiscontinuedin1964aspart

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

12/33

9

ofbroadercivilrightsandimmigrationreform,immigrationfromMexicocontinued,both

legallyandundocumented,inasomewhatcircularfashion(Masseyetal.2002).Considerable

increasesinmigrationstreamsoccurredinthe1990sandformostofthefirstdecadeofthe21st

Century(MartinandMidgley2010;PasselandCohn2009)asemigrationfromMexicoincreased

(Beanetal.2001;HillandWong2005)andreturnmigrationratesplummeted(Masseyetal.

2002;Riosmena2004).

Historically,muchoftheMexicoU.S.migrationflowshascomefromruralareasinCentral

WesternMexico(Durandetal.2001;DurandandMassey2003).However,sincethe1980s,

emigrationtotheU.S.fromlesstraditionalsendingregionsinruralSouthCentraland

SoutheasternMexicohasincreasedconsiderably(especiallyinthelast15years,seeDurandand

Massey2003)helpingfueltherecentsurgeoutofruralareasand,inparticular,ofless

traditionalsendingcommunitiesinSouthernMexico(RiosmenaandMasseyforthcoming;

RiosmenaandZenteno2010).

RuralMexicanshave,ofcourse,alsomigratedtocitieswithinMexico(Garza2003;Lozano

Ascencioetal.1999)andsomechangesintheseprocessesarealsoofimportancetothe

presentproject.Ruralurbanflows,oncemainlydestinedforMexicoCity,Guadalajara,and

Monterrey,havebeenincreasinglydirectedtowardbordercitiessincethe1980s(Lozano

Ascencioetal.1999).Migrationtonortherncitiesisfueled,inlargepart,byemployment

opportunitiesinexportprocessing(maquiladora)

firms.Still,internalmigrantsarealsomore

likelytoultimatelyemigratetotheU.S.ascomparedtolongerterm(nonmigrant)northern

residents(Fussell2004;LozanoAscencioetal.1999).Thispatternsuggestsatleastpartofthe

internalmigrantflowfromruralareasmayeventuallyyieldU.Sboundmigration.

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

13/33

10

Asbrieflynotedabove,explanationsforthetransformationinthegeographyofrural

Mexicanmigrationareassociatedwiththedeepeconomicrestructuringof,andshocksto,the

Mexicanpoliticaleconomy(FernandezKellyandMassey2007;Lustig1990;Masseyetal.2002;

Nevins2007).Theseshockshavedisproportionatelyaffectedlivelihoodsinruralareasandin

theSouthinparticular.Forinstance,considertheresultsofastudyoftheMexicaneconomy

sincetheenactmentofNAFTA.Zepedaetal.(2009)pointoutthatthemanufacturingsectorhas

gainedintermsofexports,productivityincreases,and,toalesserextent,jobgrowth.Still,

primarysectoremploymenthassufferedthemostlosses(forsimilarviews,seeHanson2003;

Polaski2004).Ofcourse,especiallyimportantfortheresearchoutlinedhere,manyrural

regionsofMexicoremaindependentonagricultureforsubsistenceand/orasacomponentofa

broaderlivelihoodstrategy(DeJanvryandSadoulet2001).

Asnoted,recentlypublishedresearchbySaldaaZorillaandSandberg(2009)andFenget

al.(2010)suggestintriguingmunicipal andstatelevelassociationsbetweenoutmigrationfrom

ruralMexicoandenvironmentalpushfactors(namelynaturaldisastersanddecliningcrop

yields,respectively).Yet,municipal andstatelevelanalysesdonotallowforadequatecontrol

ofthemyriadhouseholdlevelfactorsshapingmigrationdecisionmaking(e.g.Hondagneu

Sotelo1994;Lindstrom1996;Massey,Goldring,andDurand1994;MasseyandEspinosa1997;

StarkandBloom1985).Therefore,whatremainsmissingfromtheresearchonMexican

migrationisamorepreciseexaminationofthepotentialforenvironmentalfactorstobe

includedinthesuiteofmigrationdrivers. Theworkpresentedhereoperatesatfinerscales,

mostnotablythehouseholdandcommunitylevelsgiventherelevanceoftheformerasa

decisionunit(Masseyetal.1993)andofthelatterintermsofsocioeconomicandnetwork

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

14/33

11

processesassociatedwithmigrationdecisions(MasseyandEspinosa1997;Massey,Goldring

andDurand1994).MakinguseoftheRuralLivelihoodsframework,weincludenatural

capitalamongthemoretypicalpredictorsofmigrationhuman,financial,physical,andsocial

capitals.GiventhepublicandpolicyattentiontobothclimatechangeandMexicanmigration,

bringingtheenvironmentexplicitlyintohouseholdlevelanalysesofmigrationinthissettingis

faroverdue. Here,weinvestigatethequestion: IsemigrationfromruralMexicoassociated

withrecentpatternsofprecipitation,netofothersocioeconomicandpoliticalfactorsshaping

emigrationpatterns?

DataWeusedatafromtheMexicanMigrationProject(MMP),abinationalresearchinitiativebased

atPrincetonUniversity(USA)andtheUniversityofGuadalajara(MX). Everyyearsince1987,

theMMPselectsbetween4and6Mexicancommunitiesandinterviewsarandomsampleof

approximately200households.TheMMPquestionnairecollectsbasicsociodemographicand

retrospectivemigrationquestionsaboutallmembersofthehouseholdatthetimeofthe

survey.Dataarealsocollectedonallchildrenofthehouseholdheadregardlessoftheirplaceof

residence.Amongthesequestions,respondentsreportthedatesandduration(ifapplicable)of

thefirstandlastU.S.tripforallmembersofthehousehold.Ourdependentvariablereflects

emigrationtotheU.S.byanadulthouseholdmember(age15+)withintheyearpriortothe

survey.Forthepurposesofthepresentproject,ouranalyticalfocusisoninternational

migration,althoughweintendtoexpandupontheworkpresentedherewithadditional

migrationstreams.Onemigration,aswouldbeanticipatedfromcontemporarytrends,

outmigrationfromthesampledruralhouseholdsisacommonphenomenonwith

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

15/33

12

approximately21%sendingamigranttotheUSduringthethreeyearspriortotheyearof

observation.

Atthehouseholdlevel,weincludemeasuresreflectingaccesstothevarietyofcapitals

outlinedintheRuralLivelihoodsframeworkandcentraltohouseholdstrategies.Theseinclude

humancapital(e.g.,householdsizeandcomposition,educationallevels),financialcapital(e.g.,

businessownership),physicalcapital(e.g.landandlivestockownership,possessionsi),and

socialcapital(e.g.,headspriortriptotheUS). Astosamplecharacteristicsfortheselivelihood

variables,humancapitalmeasuredatthehouseholdlevelshowsthathouseholdheadshave

approximately5yearsofeducationand86%areemployedatthetimeofthesurvey. Overall,

40%ofhouseholdmembersareconsideredtobeinthelaborforce.Onaverage,26%of

householdsengageinfarming,22%ownabusinessandapproximately6%havebothafarmas

wellasbusiness. Ofthosewhoownland,approximately16%havetheirprimaryholdingin

eithercommunalorejidoland.Asnotedprior,householdswhoseprimarylandholdingisejido

territoryaremoreconstrainedinlivelihoodoptionsduetoincompletepropertyrightswhich

lessenstheirfinancialandcapitalassetsaswellasdecreasesthehouseholdsabilitytoaccess

formalcreditmarketsrelativetohouseholdswithprivateproperty.

Centraltothisprojectisinclusionofvariablesreflectingtheavailabilityofnaturalcapitalas

shapedbyrecentrainfalllevelsandvariability. Specifically,ourpredictorvariablesofcentral

interestrepresentrainfallpatternswithinthe3yearwindowpriortohouseholdobservation.

Wefollowedtheleadofmuchclimatescienceincalculatingastatesaverageannualrainfall

asoverahistoric30yearperiod,inourcase19601990.Ayearinwhichrainfallisonestandard

deviationbelowthestateshistoricaverageisclassifiedasadroughtyear.Inversely,arainy

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

16/33

13

yearisoneinwhichcurrentrainfallisonestandarddeviationabovethestateshistorical

average. Importantly,wefindsubstantialvariationinprecipitationregimeswithapproximately

23%ofoursamplesubjectedtoadroughtintheirsurveyyear. Inaddition13%ofoursample

hadadroughttheyearpriortothesurveywhile3.6%hadadroughtinbothyears.

Approximately28%ofoursampleexperiencedarainyyearintheirsurveyyear,while23%had

arainyyeartheyearpriortothesurveyand7%hadarainyyearinbothyears.

Thehouseholdandindividualleveldataweresupplementedwithinformationcollectedby

theMMPatthecommunityandmunicipallevels.Thesedataincludeinformationreflecting

householdsaccesstolivelihooddiversificationoptions,suchasmanufacturingfacilities,in

additiontoinformationonlargerscalesocialcapital,suchascommunitylevelmigration

prevalence(indicatingstrengthofbroadermigrantnetworks). Indeed,thisformofsocial

capitaliswelldevelopedinmostcommunities,particularlyformen;Malemigrationprevalence

tendstobebetween2550%whilefemalemigrationprevalenceofmostcommunitiesis

between025%(seealsoMassey,Goldring,andDurand1994;FussellandMassey2004).

(Table1,DescriptiveStatistics,abouthere)

Giventhefocusonrurallivelihoods,oursampleisrestrictedtononurbancommunities.

Ouranalysesmakeuseofdatafrom24,132households,withatotalof117,040persons,in66

nonurbancommunitieslocatedin12statessurveyedfromtheyearof1987to2005.Giventhat

weincludestatelevelrainfalldata,onlystatesinwhichmorethanonecommunityhasbeen

surveyedareincludedinoursample(seeAppendixA).Thisrestrictionwasnecessaryinorderto

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

17/33

14

ensurerepresentationandvariationinstatelevelvariablesovertimeandenablesustoutilize

statefixedeffectsinourregressionspecification.

MethodsWefirstsimplygraphaggregatedmigrationandprecipitationtrendsacrosstime,bystate,to

descriptivelyexaminetheirassociation.Importantly,wepresentmigrationtrendsonlyafterthe

highlevelsofmigrationmotivatedbythe1986ImmigrationandReformControlAct(IRCA),

whichprovidedamnestytoapproximately2.3millionseasonalandundocumentedMexican

workersintheUS.Forthesebivariateassociations,communitieswereclassifiedaccordingto

themajoritypercentageofthestatesclimatedistributionprovidedbythe2003studyby,

INEGI,NationalInstituteofStatistics,Geography,andInformatics. Overallcategoriesinclude:

warmdry,warmhumid,milddry,mildhumidandcold(INEGIAnuariosEstadisticosdelos

Estados,2004).Withinthesecategories,rainfalltrendswerecalculatedasrecentdeviation

fromthelongertermhistoricmean.Migrationprevalencerepresentsthenumberofadults

reported,retrospectivelyasleavingineachyear.

Wethendevelopeventhistorymultivariatemodelsand,giventhatmigrationisrootedin

householddecisionprocesses(e.g. HondagneuSotelo1994;StarkandBloom1985),wemodel

emigrationdecisionsatthisscale.Specifically,wemodelthelikelihoodthatatleastone

householdmemberemigratestotheU.S.inthethreeyearspriortothesurveyasafunctionof

communitylevel,householdlevelandenvironmentalfactors.Weoptedforathreeyearrecall

windowforthreereasons:1)tominimizepotentialmemorybiases(Auriat1991;Belli1998;

SmithandThomas2003);2)toincreasetherepresentativenessoftheanalysesbyavoiding

goingtoofarbackintime,whentheexperienceofpeopleemigratingoutofthecommunityis

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

18/33

15

lost;and3)tomaximizethenumberofcovariatesavailableformodelingpurposes. Clearly,

timingrepresentsakeychallengeinworkingwiththeMMPdata.TheMMPisarepeatedcross

sectionalsurveythatincludesretrospectivequestions.Wemadeuseofinformationfromthe

retrospectivequestionstogenerateapseudopanelacrosstimeforeachhousehold.Evenso,

manyofthecommunityandhouseholdcharacteristicsaremeasuredonlyatthetimeofthe

survey. Thesestaticmeasurements,therefore,limitourabilitytoutilizeretrospective

informationtoofarbackintimeduetotheobvioustemporalmismatch. Tobalancedataneeds

withdataavailability,weusea3yearmigrationwindow,includingmigrationeventsonlyifthey

occurredwithinthe3yearspriortosurveyobservation.Wefurtherworkedtominimize

measurementerrorbyconvertingcommunitylevelmeasurestocategoricaldummyvariables.

Asouroutcomeofinterestisatimedependentevent,whichhasaprobabilityof

occurrencederivedfromacensoreddistribution,weemploydiscretetimeeventsurvival

analysistechniques.FollowingAllison(1982;seealsoSingerandWillett2003),wedothisby

fittingalogisticregressionmodelingthelikelihoodofU.S.migrationwhileconsideringthe

exposuretotheriskofemigrationofeachunitofanalysis. Todoso,weestimatethemodelon

asetofpseudoobservations,inthiscasehouseholdyearsofexposurebeforehousehold

membersemigration. TocontrolforthechangingeconomicconditionsinMexicoweemploy

bothstateandyearfixedeffectsandtoaddressthefactthathouseholddecisionsmaybe

correlatedatacommunitylevel,weclusterourstandarderrorsaccordingly.

ResultsFirst,Figures13presenttrendlinesforsampledMexicancommunitiesgroupedby

environmentalregion. Asnotedabove,theregionsaremilddry, mildhumid,andwarmhumid,

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

19/33

16

asclassifiedwithintheMMPandbasedonthe2003studybyINEGI,NationalInstituteof

StatisticsandGeography,whichprovidesclimatezonecategorizationforeachstateinMexico.

Thefiguresclearlyhintatanassociationbetweenrainfallpatternsandemigration.Forexample,

inmilddryregions(Figure1),therelativelywetyearof1994wasassociatedwithrelativelylow

levelsofoutmigrationfromstudycommunitieswhilemigrationincreasedfollowingthe1999

rainfalldeficit. Inwarmhumidregions(Figure2),weseeconsistentlyhighlevelsof

precipitationaccompaniedbyasteadydeclineinemigration. Finally,inmildhumidregions

(Figure3),bothemigrationandrainfallhaverecentlybeenexperiencingupwardtrends,but

lookingcarefully,weseeafairlyconsistentnegativecorrelationwithlowprecipitationyears

characterizedbyrelativelyhighemigration(see1988,1994),andviceversa(see1990,1991,

and1995).

(Figures13abouthere)

Thefindingsfromourlogitmodelshedadditionallightandare,forthemostpart,consistent

withmanyofthestudiesmentionedinthebackgroundsection.Humancapitalvariables

suggesthouseholdswithmoreeducatedheadsarelesslikelytosendaninternationalmigrant,

perhapsrelatedtoenhancedlocalopportunitiestodiversifylivelihoods.Household

compositionisalsoassociatedwithemigration,withconsistentlypositivecoefficients

suggestinglargerhouseholdsaremorelikelytosendmigrantsasmightbeanticipated. Suchis

notthecase,however,inhouseholdswithrelativelymoredaughters,whicharelesslikelyto

sendaninternationalmigranttotheUS. Onfinancialcapital,employmentofheadandbusiness

ownershipdampenemigrationprobabilities,againlikelyduetoexistingdiversification

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

20/33

17

strategies. Assetsandlandownershiptendstoincreasehouseholdemigrationprobabilitywhile

socialcapitalgainedthroughpriormigrationdoesindeedenhancethelikelihoodofemigration.

Keytoouranalysesisinclusionofnaturalcapitalmeasuresandthemodelsyieldintriguing

findings.Netoftheincorporatedhuman,physical,financialandsocialcapitalvariables,

environmentalfactorsretainstatisticallysignificantpredictiveabilitywithregardtoemigration.

Considerdrought.Netoftheotherincludedhouseholdandcommunitylevelcharacteristics,

householdsexperiencingadroughtintheyearunderconsiderationhave29%higheroddsof

sendinganinternationalmigranttotheU.S.thanahouseholdnotexperiencingadrought.1

While,ifthehouseholdexperiencedarainfalldeficittheyearprior,oddsare39%greaterof

internationalmigration.Yet,theassociationisevenmoresubstantialwhenconsideringa

longertermrainfalldeficit. Householdsexperiencinga2yeardroughtareoverthreetimesas

likelyasotherhouseholdstosendaninternationalmigranttotheU.S.

Asmightbeanticipatedbasedonthedroughtresults,higherthanaveragerainfallisthen

associatedwithlesseremigrationprobabilities. Householdswithrainfallabundanceintheyear

underexamination,relativetohistoricaverages,have30%loweroddsofsendingan

internationalmigrant and 40%loweroddsifhigherlevelsofrainfallcharacterizedtheyear

prior. Ontheotherhand,theestimateoftheassociationbetweenemigrationprobabilitiesandhigherthanaveragerainfalloverbothyearsdidnotreachstatisticalsignificance.

Ofcourse,itislogicaltoassumerainfallismostlikelytoimpacthouseholdswithresource

dependentlivelihoodstrategies. Assuch,wealsoestimateemigrationasafunctionofrainfall

interactedwithindicatorsforhouseholdswhoengageinfarming,workinagricultureorown

1Thepercentageincreaseinoddsisobservedusingabaseofanoddsratioof1.

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

21/33

18

livestock. Here,somewhatcounterintuitiveresultsemerge. Twoyearrainfalldeficitsactually

decreasetheoddsoffarminghouseholdssendinganinternationalmigrantby35%ascompared

tononfarmhouseholdsata10%significancelevel.Similarly,theoddsofinternational

migrationdeclineforhouseholdswherethehouseholdheadisworkinginagriculture,with40%

loweroddsofsendinganinternationalmigrantcomparedtotheeffectofatwoyeardrought

onhouseholdswithanonagriculturalhead.Itislikelythatthesepatternshintatincome

constraints. Internationalmigrationisacostlyendeavorandperhapsunavailableto

agriculturaldependenthouseholdintimesofparticularlivelihoodstress.

Discussion&ConclusionHumanmigrationisacomplexsocialprocesscontingentonorigin anddestinationbased

factorsofwhichclimatevariabilitymaybeanimportantone. Assuggestedbypriorworkin

contextsasvariedasMali,EthiopiaandBurkinaFaso,theresearchpresentedherefindsan

associationbetweenrainfallpatternsandemigrationfromruralMexicototheU.S.,withdry

yearsgenerallyactingasamigrantpushandwetyearsinhibitingemigration.

InruralMexico,asinruralregionsacrosstheworldslessdevelopednations,environmental

changehasdirectimpactsonhealthandwellbeingofresidentssincenaturalresourcesare

oftencentraltoincomegenerationactivitiesand/oressentialinmeetingbasicliving

requirements(KoziellandSaunders2001).Giventhisresourcedependence,changesinweather

andclimatepatternsholdtremendouspotentialtoimpactlivelihoodsand,inthefaceofa

declineinlivelihoodoptions,migrationbecomesasignificantadaptivelivelihoodstrategy(e.g.

Adger2006;McLemanandSmit2006).

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

22/33

19

CurrentclimatemodelsforLatinAmericaprojectmeanwarmingfrom1to6C,andanet

increaseinthenumberofpeopleexperiencingwaterstresswithintheregion(IPCC2007).

SpecifictoMexicosmostvaluableagriculturalexport,coffee,Gayetal.(2006)projectclimate

changemayyielda34%reductioninproductioninVeracruz,potentiallymakingcoffeeno

longeraneconomicallyviablelivelihoodstrategy(seealsoNevins2007;Zepedaetal.2009).

ClearlyenvironmentalchangeholdsimportantpotentialtoimpactruralMexicanslivelihood

strategies,andtherebyinfluencemigrationpatterns.Indeed,ourresultsfindaprominent

associationbetweenemigrationfromruralMexicoandrecentpatternsofprecipitation,netof

othersocioeconomicandpoliticalfactorsshapingmigrationpatterns.

Thepreliminaryworkoutlinedherepresentsmanydirectionsforfutureresearchthrough

expansionofbothsocialandenvironmentaldimensions.Onthesocialdimensions,weaimto

disaggregatemigrationstreamsbothbydestination(toexamineinternalandinternational

migration),whilealsoexploringdifferentmigrationoutcomesforMexicanmenandwomen.

Ontheenvironmentaldimension,weaimtointegrateadditionalaspectsofenvironmental

changeincludingtemperaturefluctuationsandshiftsinvegetationcoverage.Ofcourse,we

couldalsoexplorethepullofdesirablenaturalattributes;WithintheU.S.,astatelevel

associationexistsbetweenclimateandmigrationwithdesirableweatherattributes(warmer

temperatures,lesshumidity)associatedwithpositivenetmigration(Postonetal.2009).In

Ghana,regionswithgreateraccesstonaturalcapitalexperiencehigherlevelsofinmigration

(VanderGesest,VrielingandDietz2010).

Thepublic,policyandacademicrealmshaverecentlypaidincreasingattentiontothe

potentialforenvironmentalchangetoalterpatternsofhumanmigration.Social,political,

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

23/33

20

economicandenvironmentalpressuresconvergeinruralMexicoregionswherethepresent

studysuggestsreductionofproximatenaturalcapitalmayenhancethelikelihoodof

householdstappingintomigrationslivelihoodpotential. Certainlysuchevidencesuggeststhat

theenvironmentaldimensionsoflivelihoodstrategies,includingemigration,deserveadditional,

focusedresearchattention.

ReferencesAllison,P.D.(1982).DiscreteTimeMethodsfortheAnalysisofEventHistories.Sociological

Methodology,13,6198.

Abbott,S.(1976).Fulltimefarmersandweekendwives:ananalysisofalteringconjugalroles.Journal

ofMarriageandtheFamily.38(1):165174.

AbdelaliMarini,M.,P.Goldey,G.E.Jones,E.Bailey.(2003).Towardsafeminizationofagricultural

labourinnorthwestSyria. TheJournalofPeasantStudies.30(2):7194.

Adger,W.N.(2006). Vulnerability GlobalEnvironmentalChange.16(3):26881.

Adger,W.N.,N.Paavola,andS.Huq.(2006).TowardJusticeinAdaptationtoClimateChange.Chapter

1inFairnessinadaptationtoclimatechange.Adger,Paavola,Huq,Mace(Eds).MITPress:

Cambridge,MA.

Auriat,N.(1991)."WhoForgets anAnalysisofMemoryEffectsinaRetrospectiveSurveyonMigration

History."EuropeanJournalofPopulationRevueEuropenneDeDemographie7(4):311342

Ayuwat,D.(1993).EffectsofmigrationpatternsofforestuseandforestryprojectsinaThaivillage.

SocietyandNaturalResources.6(2):195202.

Balderrama,F.E.&Rodrguez,R.(2006).Decadeofbetrayal:Mexicanrepatriationinthe1930s.

Albuquerque:UniversityofNewMexicoPress.

Bank,L.(2005).Onfamilyfarmsandcommoditygroups:Rurallivelihoods,householdsand

developmentpolicyintheEasternCape.SocialDynamics.31(1):157181.

Belli,R.F.(1998).Thestructureofautobiographicalmemoryandtheeventhistorycalendar:Potential

improvementsinthequalityofretrospectivereportsinsurveys.Memory,6(4),383406.

Bilsborrow,R.E.Migration,PopulationChangeandtheRuralEnvironment.ECSPReport.Woodrow

WilsonInternationalCenterforScholars,EnvironmentalChangeandSecurityProject.Issue8

(2002):6994.

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

24/33

21

Burstein,J.(2007,April).U.S.MexicoAgriculturalTradeandRuralPovertyinMexico.TaskForce:

WoodrowWilsonCentersMexicoInstituteandFundacinIDEA.WoodrowWilsonInternational

CenterforScholars:WashingtonDC.

Calavita,K.(1992).InsidetheState:TheBraceroProgram,Immigration,andtheI.N.S.NewYork:

Routledge.

Cardoso,L.A.(1980).MexicanemigrationtotheUnitedStates,18971931:Socioeconomicpatterns:

UniversityofArizonaPress.

Carr,Edward.(2005)."PlacingtheEnviromentinMigration:Enviroment,EconomyandPowerinGhana's

CentralRegion."EnvironmentandPlanning37:92546.

Cohen,J.H.(2004).ThecultureofmigrationinSouthernMexico.Austin:UniversityofTexasPress.

Collinson,M.A.,S.M.Tollman,K.Kahn,S.J.Clark&M.Garenne.(2006a).Highlyprevalentcircular

migration:households,mobilityandeconomicstatusinruralSouthAfrica.InAfricansonthe

Move:MigrationinComparativePerspective.Tienda,M.,S.E.Findley,S.M.Tollman,E.Preston

Whyte(Eds.)WitsUniversityPress:Johannesburg,SouthAfrica.

Collinson,M.A.,B.Wolff,S.M.Tollman&K.Kahn.(2006b).Trendsininternallabourmigrationfrom

ruralLimpopoProvince:Maleriskbehaviour,andimplicationsforthespreadofHIV/AIDSin

ruralSouthAfrica.JournalofEthnicandMigrationStudies.32(4):633648.

DeJanvry,A.&E.Sadoulet.(2001)."IncomeStrategiesAmongRuralHouseholdsinMexico:TheRoleof

offfarmActivities."WorldDevelopment.29(3):46780.Print.

DeSherbinin,A.,VanWey,L.K.,McSweeney,K.,Aggarwal,R.,Barbieri,A.,Henry,S.,Hunter,L.M.,Twine,W.,&Walker,R.(2008)."Ruralhouseholddemographics,livelihoodsandtheenvironment."

GlobalEnvironmentalChange18(1):3853.

Durand,J.,Massey,D.S.,&Zenteno,R.M.(2001)."MexicanimmigrationtotheUnitedStates:

Continuitiesandchanges."LatinAmericanResearchReview36(1):107127.

Durand,J.&D.S.Massey.(2003).Clandestinos:MigracinMxicoEstadosUnidosenlosAlboresdel

SigloXXI.Zacatecas:UniversidadAutnomadeZacatecas.

Eakin,Hallie.(2005)"InstitutionalChange,ClimateRisk,andRuralVulnerability:CasesfromCentral

Mexico."WorldDevelopment.33(11):192338.

Ellis,F.(2000).RuralLivelihoodsandDiversityinDevelopingCountries. OxfordUniversityPress.,Oxford

UK.

Feng,S.,Kruger,A.,&Oppenheimer,M.(2010). "LinkagesamongClimateChange,CropYieldsand

MexicoUScrossborderMigration."PNAS107.32:16.Web.05Aug2010.

.

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

25/33

22

FernndezKelly,P.&Massey,D.S. (2007)."Bordersforwhom?TheroleofNAFTAinMexicoU.S.

migration."AnnalsoftheAmericanAcademyofPoliticalandSocialScience610:98118.

Findley,S.(1994).Doesdroughtincreasemigration?AstudyofmigrationfromruralMaliduringthe

19831985drought.InternationalMigrationReview.28(3):749771.

Foerster,R.F.(1925)."RacialproblemsinvolvedinimmigrationfromLatinAmericaandWestIndiesto

U.S."Washington,D.C.:GPO.

Fussell,E.(2004).SourcesofMexico'smigrationstream:Rural,urban,andbordermigrantstotheUnited

States.SocialForces,82(3),937967.

Fussell,E.&D.S.Massey.(2004)."Thelimitstocumulativecausation:Internationalmigrationfrom

Mexicanurbanareas."Demography41(1):151171.

Fussel,H.M.,Klein,R.J.T.(2006).Climatechangevulnerabilityassessments:anevolutionofconceptual

thinking.ClimaticChange.75:301329.

Garza,G.(2003).LaUrbanizacinenMxicoenelSigloXX.MexicoCity:ElColegiodeMxico.

Gamio,M.(1930).MexicanimmigrationtotheUnitedStates;astudyofhumanmigrationand

adjustment.Chicago,Ill:TheUniversityofChicagopress.

GayC.,EstradaF.,CondeC.,EakinH.&VillersL.(2006).Potentialimpactsofclimatechangeon

agriculture:acasestudyofcoffeeproductioninVeracruz,Mexico.ClimateChange79:259288.

Gutmann,M.,G.D.Deane,N.Lauster,andA.Peri.(2005).TwoPopulationEnvironmentRegimesinthe

GreatPlainsoftheUnitedStates,19301990.Population

and

Environment.27(2):191225.

Hanson,G.H.(2003)."WhatHasHappenedtoWagesinMexicosinceNAFTA?.NBERWorkingPaperNo.

w9563."inSSRNeLibrary.

Henry,S.,B.Schoumaker&C.Beauchemin.(2004).Theimpactofrainfallonthefirstoutmigration:A

multileveleventhistoryanalysisinBurkinaFaso.PopulationandEnvironment.25(5):423460.

Hoefer,M.,Rytina,N.,&Campbel,C.(2007).EstimatesoftheUnauthorizedImmigrantPopulation

ResidingintheUnitedStates:January2006.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity,Officeof

ImmigrationStatistics:WashingtonDC.

Hoffman,A.(1974).UnwantedMexicanAmericansintheGreatDepression:Repatriationpressures,

19291939.Tucson:UniversityofArizonaPress.

Hunter,L.M.,Twine,W.,&Patterson,L. (2007)."Locustsarenowourbeef'':Adultmortalityand

householddietaryuseoflocalenvironmentalresourcesinruralSouthAfrica1."Scandinavian

JournalofPublicHealth.35(69suppl):165.

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

26/33

23

InternationalFundforAgriculturalDevelopment(IFAD).AnIFAPsustainableliveilihoodsframework.

Webpublication. URL:http://www.ifad.org/sla/framework/index.htm

Kana'iaupuni,S.M.(2000).Reframingthemigrationquestion:Ananalysisofmen,women,andgender

inMexico.SocialForces,78(4),13111347.

Koziell,I.andJ.Saunders(Eds.)(2001).LivingoffBiodiversity:ExploringLivelihoodsandBiodiversity.

IIED,London.

Leichenko,R.M.andK.L.OBrien.(2006).EnvironmentalChangeandGlobalization:DoubleExposures.

OxfordUniversityPress:UK. .(2002).Thedynamicsofruralvulnerabilitytoglobal

change:ThecaseofsouthernAfrica. MitigationandAdaptationStrategiesforGlobalChange.

7:118.

Lindstrom,D.P.&Lauster,N.(2001)."Localeconomicopportunityandthecompetingrisksofinternal

andU.S.migrationinZacatecas,Mexico."InternationalMigrationReview.35(4):12321256.

Liverman,D.(2010)."DroughtImpactsinMexico:Climate,Agriculture,TechnologyandLandTenureinSonoraandPuebla."AnnalsoftheAssociationofAmericanGeographers.80(1):4972.

LozanoAscencio,F.,Roberts,B.R.&Bean,F.D.(1999).TheInterconnectionsofInternaland

InternationalMigration:TheCaseoftheUnitedStatesandMexico.InL.Pries(Ed.),inMigration

andTransnationalSocialSpaces(pp.138161).Aldershot,Englad:AshgatePublishingLtd.

Luers,A.,D.Lobell,L.Sklar,L.Addams&P.Matson.(2003)."Amethodforquantifyingvulnerability,

appliedtotheagriculturalsystemoftheYaquiValley,Mexico."GlobalEnvironmentalChange.

13:25567.

Lustig,N.(1990)."Economiccrisis,adjustmentandlivingstandardsinMexico,198285."World

Development18(10):13251342.

Martin,P.&Midgley,E.(2010).Immigration:ShapingandReshapingAmerica. PopulationBulletin

61(4):PopulationReferenceBureau:WashingtonDC.

Massey,D.S.,Alarcon,R.,Durand,J.,&Gonzlez,H.(1987).ReturntoAztlan:Thesocialprocessof

internationalmigrationfromwesternMexico.Berkeley:UniversityofCaliforniaPress.

Massey,D.,J.Arango,G.Hugo,A.Kouaouci,A.Pellegrino&E.Taylor. (1993)."TheoriesofInternational

Migration:AReviewandAppraisal."PopulationandDevelopmentReview.19(3):43166.

Massey,D.S.,Goldring,L.&Durand,J.(1994)."ContinuitiesinTransnationalMigration:AnAnalysisof

NineteenMexicanCommunities."AmericanJournalofSociology99(6):14921533.

Massey,D.S.&Espinosa,K.E.(1997)."What'sDrivingMexicoU.S.Migration?ATheoretical,Empirical,

andPolicyAnalysis."AmericanJournalofSociology102(4):939999.

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

27/33

24

Massey,D.S.,Durand,J.,&Malone,N.J.(2002).Beyondsmokeandmirrors:Mexicanimmigrationinan

eraofeconomicintegration.NewYork:RussellSageFoundation.

Massey,D.S.,Axinn,W.G.,&Ghimire,D.J.(2010)."Environmentalchangeandoutmigration:Evidence

fromNepal."Population&Environment.32:109136.

Massey,D.S.,&Riosmena,F.(2010).UndocumentedmigrationfromLatinAmericainaneraofrising

U.S.enforcement.AnnalsoftheAmericanAcademyofPoliticalandSocialScience,630(1),294

321.

McLeman,R.A.&Hunter,L.M.(2010).MigrationintheContextofVulnerabilityandAdaptationto

ClimateChange:InsightsfromAnalogues.WileyInterdisciplinaryReviews:ClimateChange.

1(3):450461.

McLemanR.A.&SmitB.MigrationasanAdaptationtoClimateChange ClimaticChange ;76.12

(2006):3153.

MezeHausken,E.(2000).Migrationcausedbyclimatechange:Howvulnerablearepeopleindrylandareas?MitigationandAdaptationStrategiesforGlobalChange.5(4):379406.

Nevins,J.(2007)."Dyingforacupofcoffee?MigrantdeathsintheUSMexicoborderregionina

neoliberalage."Geopolitics12(2):228247.

Njock,JC.&Westlund,L.(2010).Migration,resourcemanagementandglobalchange:Experiences

fromfishingcommunitiesinWestandCentralAfrica.MarinePolicy.34:752760.

Nunan,F.(2010).MobilityandfisherfolklivelihoodsonLakeVictoria:Implicationsforvulnerabilityand

risk.Geoforum.41:776785.

O'ConnorT.G.&KikerG.A.(2004)CollapseoftheMapungubwesociety:vulnerabilityofpastoralismto

increasingaridity.ClimaticChange.4966.

Passel,J.S.&D.V.Cohn.(2008)."Trendsinunauthorizedimmigration:Undocumentedinflownowtrails

legalinflow."editedbyP.H.Center.Washington,D.C.:PewHispanicCenter.

Pereira,T.,C.M.Shackleton&S.Shackleton.(2006).Tradeinreedbasedcraftproductsinruralvillages

intheEasternCape,SouthAfrica.DevelopmentSouthernAfrica.23(4):477495.

Polaski,S.(2004).Mexicanemployment,productivityandincomeadecadeafterNAFTA.Retrievedfrom

theCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeacewebsite:

http://carnegieendowment.org/pdf/files/canadasenatebrief.pdf

Poston,D.L.,Zhang,L.,Gotcher,D.J.andGu,Y.(2009).Theeffectofclimateonmigration:United

States,19952000.SocialScienceResearch.39:743753.

Qin,H.(2010).Ruraltourbanlabormigration,householdlivelihoods,andtheruralenvironmentin

ChongqingMunicipality,SouthwestChina.HumanEcology.38:675690.

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

28/33

25

Reid,P.andC.Vogel.2006.LivingandrespondingtomultiplestressorsinSouthAfricaGlimpsesfrom

KwaZuluNatal.GlobalEnvironmentalChange.16(2):195206.

Riosmena,F.(2004).ReturnVersusSettlementAmongUndocumentedMexicanMigrants,1980to

1996.InJ.Durand&D.S.Massey(Eds.). CrossingtheBorder:ResearchfromtheMexican

MigrationProject(pp.265280).NewYork:RussellSageFoundation.

Riosmena,F.&Zenteno,R.M.(2010,November).TendenciasenlosFlujosentreRegionesdeOrigeny

DestinodelaMigracinMexicanaaEstadosUnidos.PaperpresentedattheXReuninNacional

deInvestigacinDemogrficaenMxico.Mexico,DF.

Riosmena,F.,&Massey,D.(Forthcoming).PathwaystoElNorte:Origins,Destinations,and

CharacteristicsofMexicanMigrantstotheUnitedStates.InternationalMigrationReview.

Rosas,C.A.(2008).Varonesalsondelamigracin:Migracininternacionalymasculinidadesde

VeracruzaChicago(1a.ed.).Mxico,D.F.:ElColegiodeMxico,CentrodeEstudios

Demogrficos,UrbanosyAmbientales.

Rugalema,G.(2000).Copingorstruggling?AjourneyintotheimpactofHIV/AIDSinsouthernAfrica.

ReviewofAfricanPoliticalEconomy.27(86):537545.

SaldanaZorrilla,S.O.&Sandberg,K.(2009).Spatialeconometricmodelofnaturaldisasterimpactson

humanmigrationinvulnerableregionsofMexico.Disasters.33(4):591607.

Segnestam,L.(2009).DivisionofCapitalsWhatRoleDoesItPlayforGenderDifferentiated

VulnerabilitytoDroughtinNicaragua?CommunityDevelopment.40:154176.

Stark,O.&Bloom,D.E.(1985)."Theneweconomicsoflabormigration."AmericanEconomicReview.

75(2):173178.

Thomas,D.S.G.andC.Twyman.(2006).Adaptationandequityinresourcedependentsocieties.

Chapter11(pp.223237)inFairnessinadaptationtoclimatechange.Adger,Paavola,Huq,

Mace(Eds).MITPress:Cambridge,MA.

Turner,B.L.,Kasperson,R.E.,Matson,P.A.,McCarthy,J.J.,Christensen,R.W.,Eckley,N.,Kasperson,J.X.,

Luers,A.,Martello,M.L.,Pulsipher,A.&Schiller,A.(2003).Aframeworkforvulnerability

analysisinsustainabilityscience.ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences.

100:8074:8079.

Valsecchi,M.(2010).Landcertificationandinternationalmigration:EvidencefromMexico.Presented

atNortheastUniversitiesDevelopmentConsortiumConference,2010.MassachusettsInstitute

ofTechnology,SloanManagement:Boston,MA. AccessedonlineDec2010:

http://mitsloan.mit.edu/neudc/papers/paper_120.pdf

VanderGesest,K.,Vrieling,A.,&Dietz,T.(2010)."MigrationandenvironmentinGhana:acrossdistrict

analysisofhumanmobilityandvegetationdynamics."EnvironmentandUrbanization22(1):107

23.

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

29/33

26

VanWey,L.(2003).LandownershipasadeterminantoftemporarymigrationinNangRong,Thailand.

EuropeanJournalofPopulation.19(2):121145.

Wiggins,S.,Keilbach,N.,Preibish,K.,Proctor,S.,RiveraHerrejon,G.,&RodriguezMuno,G.(2002)

AgriculturalPolicyReformandRuralLivelihoodsinCentralMexico. TheJournalof

DevelopmentStudies.38(4):179200

Winters,P.,B.Davis&L.Corral.(2002).Assets,activitiesandincomegenerationinruralMexico:

factoringinsocialandpubliccapital.AgriculturalEconomics.27(2):139156.

Winters,P.,deJanvry,A.&Sadoulet,E.(2001)."FamilyandcommunitynetworksinMexicoUS

migration."JournalofHumanResources36(1):159184.

Yaro,J.A.(2006).Isdeagrarianisationreal?AstudyoflivelihoodactivitiesinruralnorthernGhana.The

JournalofModernAfricanStudies.44(1):125156.

Zepeda,E.,Wise,T.A.&Gallagher,K.P.(2009)."Rethinkingtradepolicyfordevelopment:Lessonsfrom

MexicounderNAFTA."Pp.122:CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace.INEGIAnuariosEstadisticosdelosEstados,2004bytheInstitutoNacionalDeEstadisticaYGeografia) See

EnvironssupplementaldatasetmadeavailablebytheMMPforrawdata.

Zweifler,M.O.,M.A.Gold&R.N.Thomas.1994.LandUseEvolutioninHillRegionsoftheDominican

Republic.TheProfessionalGeographer.46(1):3953.

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

30/33

27

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1

1990 1995 2000 2005year of observation

Migrants Rainfall

States in Mild Dry Region: Aguascalientes, Chihuahua, GuanajuatoSan Luis Potosi and Zacatecas

Proportional Migrant and Rainfall Trends in Mild Dry Regions

.2

.4

.6

.8

1

1990 1995 2000 2005year of observation

Migrants Rainfall

States in Warm Humid Region: Colima, Guerrero, Jalisco, Michoacan,Oaxaca and Veracruz

Proportional Migrant and Rainfall Trends in Warm Humid Regions

Figure1

Figure2

Figure3

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

31/33

28

Table1: MeansandStandardDeviationsof CommunityandHouseholdCovariatesVariable %/Mean Std.Dev

CommunityLevelCharacteristics

FemaleLaborForceParticipationbetween0 10% 26.70% 0.442

FemaleLaborForceparticipationbetween10 20% 60.70% 0.488FemaleLaborForceparticipationbetween20 30% 12.60% 0.332

ProportionofFemalesinManufacturingover50% 8.00% 0.271

MaleAgriculturalworkParticipationover50% 48.70% 0.500

FemaleMigrationPrevalence in1990between0 25% 86.50% 0.342

FemaleMigrationPrevalence in1990between25 50% 13.50% 0.342

MaleMigrationPrevalence in1990between25 50% 62.80% 0.483



Household

CharcteristicsDependentVariable: Householdsendsamigrant 20.60% 0.404

HumanCapitalHouseholdsize 4.85 2.369

PercentageofHHinLaborForce 39.70% 0.234

Householdheademployed 85.50% 0.352

Householdheadeducation 5.00 4.355

FinancialCapital

Householdhasbusiness 22.10% 0.415

SocialCapital

HouseholdheadnumberoftripstoUS 1.53 3.847

PhyscialCapital

Primarypropertyiseithercommunityorejidoland 15.70% 0.364

NaturalCapital

CurrentYearisaDroughtYear 23.30% 0.423

CurrentYearisRainyYear 27.90% 0.449

LastYearwasaDroughtYear 13.10% 0.338

LastYearwasaRainyYear 22.60% 0.418

TwoDroughtYearshaveOccurredinRow 3.60% 0.186

TwoRainyYearshaveOccurredinaRow 6.80% 0.251

RelianceonNaturalCapital

Householdengagedinfarming 26.30% 0.440

Householdhasbothfarmandbusiness 6.20% 0.241

Householdownslivestock 28.00% 0.450

Householdheadworksinagriculture 34.50% 0.476

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

32/33

29

SE SE SE

ommunityLevelCharacteristics

ProportionofFemalesinManufacturing isover50% 0.666*** (0.204) 0.671*** (0.204) 0.673*** (0.204)

MaleAgriculturalWorkParticipationisover50% 0. 454** ( 0.177) 0. 449** (0. 175) 0. 445** (0. 175)

MaleMigrationPrevalence in1990wasbetween25 50% 0.571*** (0.159) 0.565*** (0.159) 0.558*** (0.160)

ouseholdCharacteristics

HumanCapital

HeadofHouseEducation 0.0616*** (0.0107) 0.0599*** (0.0107) 0.0603*** (0.0107)

AgeofHeadofHousehold 0.0133*** (0.00393) 0.0134*** ( 0.0039) 0.0135*** (0.00393)

Spouse'sEducation 0.0498*** (0.0118) 0.0495*** (0.0118) 0.0491*** (0.0119)

Lifecycle YoungChildren 1.327*** (0.194) 1.333*** (0.194) 1.332*** (0.194)

Lifecycle YoungandTeenageChi ldre n 1.702*** ( 0.200) 1.710*** (0.202) 1.710*** ( 0.202)

Lifecycle TeenageChildrenOnly 0.694** (0.310) 0.706** (0.311) 0.709** (0.311)

Lifecycle AdultChildren 1.474*** (0.222) 1.482*** (0.224) 1.485*** (0.224)

PercentageofDaughterstoHouseholdMembers 0.637*** (0.158) 0.639*** (0.159) 0.640*** (0.159)

FinancialCapital

TheHouseholdhasaBusiness 0.320*** (0.0834) 0.304*** (0.0792) 0.304*** (0.0793)PercentageoftheHouseholdthatisintheLaborForce 0.574*** (0.128) 0.574*** (0.128) 0.577*** (0.128)

HouseholdHeadisemployed 0.225* (0.116) 0.264** (0.117) 0.262** (0.117)

PhysicalCapital

PrimaryPropertyiseitherCommunityorEjidoLand 0.365*** (0.126) 0.361*** (0.126) 0.366*** (0.127)

PercentageofAmenitiesownedbyHousehold (outof11) 1.338*** (0.252) 1.353*** (0.251) 1.358*** (0.252)

NumberoflivestockownedbyHH 0.115*** (0.0310) 0.117** (0.0459) 0.115** (0.0461)

SocialCapital

HouseholdHead NumberofTripstotheUS 0.205*** (0.0167) 0.205*** (0.0169) 0.205*** (0.0169)

NaturalCapital

CurrentYearisaDroughtYear 0.254** (0.128) 0.253** (0.128) 0.254** (0.128)

CurrentYearisaRainyYear 0.361*** (0.139) 0.363*** (0.139) 0.363*** (0.139)LastYearwasaDroughtYear 0.329** (0.148) 0.330** (0.148) 0.332** (0.148)

LastYearwasaRainyYear 0.500*** (0.133) 0.502*** (0.132) 0.502*** (0.132)

AdroughthasOccurredTwoYearsinaRow 1. 228*** (0.464) 1. 224*** ( 0. 463) 1. 385*** ( 0. 472)

ARainyyearhasOccurredTwoYearsinaRow 0.329 (0.235) 0.335 (0.235) 0.336 (0.234)

RelianceonNaturalCapital

HouseholdisEngagedinFarming 0.0986 0.0913 0.116 (0.0924) 0.113 (0.0930)

HouseholdOwnsLivestock 0.0228 (0.114) 0.0283 (0.115)

HouseholdheadworksinAgriculture 0.0876 (0.111) 0.106 (0.112)

Interaction Farm&TwoYearDrought 0.444** (0.204)

InteractionOwnsLivestock&TwoyearDrought 0.237 (0.545)

InteractionHHHeadWorksinAg&TwoYearDrought 0.501** (0.250)

Intercept 3.956*** (0.826) 3.939*** (0.815) 3.938*** (0.813)

StateFixedEffects

YearFixedEffects

Community FemaleLaborForceParticipationControls

CommunityFemaleMigrationPrevalencein1990QuartileCo

CommunityMaleMigrationPrevalence in1990QuartileContr

Spouse'sEducationandNumberofUStripsControls

Observations

*Allresultsgiveninlogodds

Yes Yes

Table2: Discrete TimelogitPredictingtheLikelihoodofaHouseholdSendingaMigrant1 2

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes Yes

24,132 24,132 24,132

3

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Robuststandarderrorsinparentheses ***p

8/4/2019 pop2011-0003

33/33

AppendixA1)

iTheMMPincludesmeasuresof11amenities/possessionswithinstudyhouseholds:runningwater,

electricity,sewage,astove,arefrigerator,awashingmachine,asewingmachine,aradio,atelevision, a

stereoandatelephone.

S tates , C ommunitites an d H H obs ervations in S am pleS tate C om m unitite s H H Ob servations P erce ntofS ample

A g uasc a lientes 2 6 5 0 2.69

C olim a 3 1 ,0 2 7 4.26

C hihuahua 3 1 ,2 6 6 5.25G ua najua to 1 2 4 ,1 8 1 1 7.33

G ue rrero 3 9 7 7 4.05

J alis c o 1 1 3 ,6 1 3 1 4.97

Mic hoac an 6 2 ,3 6 9 9.82

O axac a 4 1 ,7 0 4 7.06

P uebla 2 5 4 9 2.27

S a n Luis P otos i 9 3 ,1 7 6 1 3.16

V era c ruz 6 2 ,0 2 3 8.38

Z ac a tec a s 5 2 ,5 9 7 1 0.76

T otal 6 6 2 4 ,1 3 2 1 00

Documents

pop2011-0003