7/31/2019 Polysilicon Prices Forecast to Fall Further:
Pv-magazine
1/2
18. APRIL 2012 | INDUSTRY & SUPPLIERS, MARKETS & TRENDS,
PRODUCTS | BY: BECKY STUART
Polysilicon prices are expected to fall 56percent in
2012.www.polysiliconsupplier.com
Polysilicon prices forecast to fall furtherPolysilicon prices
forecast to fall further
IHS iSuppli predicts that polysilicon prices will fall to US$22
per kilogramIHS iSuppli predicts that polysilicon prices will fall
to US$22 per kilogram
by the end of the year, due to the continuing production
surplus. Theby the end of the year, due to the continuing
production surplus. The
company adds that prices vary, depending on both contract type
and puritycompany adds that prices vary, depending on both contract
type and puritylevel. These changes, it says, will change the way
polysilicon is bought andlevel. These changes, it says, will change
the way polysilicon is bought and
sold in the future.sold in the future.
According to an IHS iSuppli PV Perspectives MarketAccording to
an IHS iSuppli PV Perspectives Market
Brief and the companys Polysilicon Price Index, supplyBrief and
the companys Polysilicon Price Index, supply
will significantly outstrip demand, thus leading towill
significantly outstrip demand, thus leading to
"major price erosion"."major price erosion".
Both spot and contract prices are expected to be affected,Both
spot and contract prices are expected to be affected,
depending on the contract type and purity of thedepending on the
contract type and purity of the
polysilicon. For example, IHS iSuppli says contractpolysilicon.
For example, IHS iSuppli says contract
pricing for 9N/9N+ pure polysilicon is forecast to fall to
$32.20 in June, down from $33.40pricing for 9N/9N+ pure polysilicon
is forecast to fall to $32.20 in June, down from $33.40
in February. Meanwhile, it believes that spot market pricing for
9N/9N+ purewill decrease toin February. Meanwhile, it believes that
spot market pricing for 9N/9N+ purewill decrease to$24.40, down
from $27.90. Overall, it is predicted that polysilicon prices will
hit $22 per$24.40, down from $27.90. Overall, it is predicted that
polysilicon prices will hit $22 per
kilogram by the end ofthe year.kilogram by the end ofthe
year.
Long-term changesLong-term changes
In 2011, Henning Wicht, director and principal analyst, says
spot prices fell by 65 percent.In 2011, Henning Wicht, director and
principal analyst, says spot prices fell by 65 percent.
"This year is expected to bring another 56 percent reduction.
All this will have an impact on"This year is expected to bring
another 56 percent reduction. All this will have an impact on
pricing for solar modules and systems as well, adding to the
woes of the industry in what ispricing for solar modules and
systems as well, adding to the woes of the industry in what is
already expected to be a challenging year. These developments
are likely to lead to long-termalready expected to be a challenging
year. These developments are likely to lead to long-term
changes in the way polysilicon is bought and sold in the PV
industry," he explains.changes in the way polysilicon is bought and
sold in the PV industry," he explains.
In particular, spot price declines are affectingIn particular,
spot price declines are affecting long-term contract agreements
(LTA), "whichlong-term contract agreements (LTA), "which
have dominated the industry until recently." However, IHS
iSuppli does believe that sincehave dominated the industry until
recently." However, IHS iSuppli does believe that since
polysilicon is still not a commodity product, due to the
different levels of purity, LTApolysilicon is still not a commodity
product, due to the different levels of purity, LTA
contracts are not about to disappear. "Polysilicon is not fully
commoditized, and differentcontracts are not about to disappear.
"Polysilicon is not fully commoditized, and different
impurity levels can lead to lower solar module efficiencies,
making quality control still animpurity levels can lead to lower
solar module efficiencies, making quality control still an
important part of the purchasing process," it states.important
part of the purchasing process," it states.
Despite this, it says LTA contracts are more likely to be signed
when the pricing remainsDespite this, it says LTA contracts are
more likely to be signed when the pricing remains
flexible to market conditions. "One way to adjust LTA prices is
to link price changes to theflexible to market conditions. "One way
to adjust LTA prices is to link price changes to the
spot market," says IHS iSuppli.spot market," says IHS
iSuppli.
Overall, the company predicts that 328,000 metric tons (MT)
ofOverall, the company predicts that 328,000 metric tons (MT)
ofpolysilicon will be producedpolysilicon will be produced
in 2012, compared to 285,000 MT in 2011; demand is only expected
to be 196,000 MT, downin 2012, compared to 285,000 MT in 2011;
demand is only expected to be 196,000 MT, down
four percent onfour percent on last year. "This means that
production capacity will outstrip demandlast year. "This means that
production capacity will outstrip demand this yearthis year
just like the last, with excess production actually wideningjust
like the last, with excess production actually wideningto a
whopping 132,000 metricto a whopping 132,000 metric
tons in 2012, up from 80,000 metric tons intons in 2012, up from
80,000 metric tons in 2011. Supply will exceed demand by 67
percent2011. Supply will exceed demand by 67 percent
in 2012, up from 39in 2012, up from 39 percent in 2011," says
IHS iSuppli.percent in 2011," says IHS iSuppli.
Related News:Related News:
Polysilicon prices drop 11 percent 14.05.2012
PV will become mainstream energy source under right policy
conditions 09.05.2012
Polysilicon prices continue to drop for solar 10.02.2012
Polysilicon 2012-2016 20.01.2012
China: STSIC polysilicon and solar cell plans progressing
19.12.2011
Polysilicon latest trade war victim 25.11.2011
Chinese polysilicon a key focus at SNEC PV22.02.2011
Polysilicon enables strong PV growth 27.10.2010
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PV poll of the weekPV poll of the week
IHS iSuppli reported this week that in April average
polysiliconIHS iSuppli reported this week that in April average
polysilicon
prices dropped to US$27.20. What will prices reach beforeprices
dropped to US$27.20. What will prices reach before
rebounding?rebounding?
$25
$22.50
$20
$15
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