Politikbrief 02/2012 - VDA · 2014. 10. 30. · Politikbrief 02/2012 The future of CO 2 regulation in Europe: Incentivizing innovation 2 Europe is currently planning the toughest

Politikbrief 02/2012

The future of CO2 regulation in Europe: Incentivizing innovation 2Europe is currently planning the toughest CO2 regulations in the world …

Third report from the National Platform for Electric Mobility 4On May 3, 2010, the National Platform for Electric Mobility (NPE) established a unique alliance of actors from the worlds of politics, the economy and science …

Natural gas: An underestimated fuel 5Alternative drives are not just good for the environment; they are also a solution to rising gasoline prices and the battle for raw materials …

Future study by Oliver Wyman and the VDA: The automotive industry is facing enormous challenges 6The task facing the automotive industry is pretty tough …

Coalition increases investment in trunk roads – long-term consolidation required 7The VDA warmly welcomes the decision of the coalition to increase its investment in the road infrastructure by 750 million euro compared to the previous base …

Managing board and organization chart 8Early November, the members of the VDA elected their new managing board. The VDA political report shows the current constitution at a glance and presentsthe task structure of the association supported by the members …

Imprint 8

News Service for Decision Makers in Politics and the Economy

Contents


N e w s s e r v i c e f o r d ec i s i o N m a k e r s i N p o l i t i c s a N d t h e ec o N o m y

2

Europe is currently planning the toughest CO2 regulations in the world. By 2020, a new passenger car in the EU is to achieve average CO2 emissions of 95 g/km while a light commercial vehicle is expected to reach 147 g/km. The EU Commission presented these long-term objectives in July 2012. The pivotal question here is: Is the administration in Brussels stimulating or strangling the automotive industry with their plans? The answer depends on the precise terms and details of the regulation.

It is clear that fuel consumption reduction has really picked up pace over the last few years. Between 2006 and the third quarter of this year, German manufacturers had already made their models 19% more economical. To this end, German manufacturers and suppliers invest around 4 billion euro annu-ally in research, in order to make combustion engines more efficient and to develop alternative drive systems. According to the Europe-wide objective, by 2015 all new passenger cars must have CO2 emissions of 130 grams – this corresponds to consumption of 5.0 liters of diesel or 5.6 liters of gasoline per 100 kilometers. The new proposal now demands a further 27% reduction within just five years. The crux for the industry is that the progress of the past years cannot readily continue in a linear fashion. As we approach the physical limits, more and more complex technologies are required.

The measures available are becoming increasingly expensive – and are delivering proportionately fewer savings. This trend has been evident as recently as the first nine months of 2012: the considerable 3.8% consumption reduction for new vehicles achieved in 2011 will not be achieved by the manufacturers in this year.

A threshold value of 95 g/km CO2 equates to consumption of 3.6 liters diesel or 4.1 liters of gasoline per 100 km. For the individual manufacturers, specific targets are derived from this which, depending on the product portfolio, can be slightly below or above 95 grams. In order to achieve this target, practically all manufacturers will have to partially or completely electrify the drivetrain of their vehicles. However, developing and constructing such vehicles is expensive. For this reason, the VDA is proposing that incentives for them are integrated in the new CO2 regulation. The method of choice would be “super credits”, whereby particularly low-emission vehicles would be taken into consideration multiple times and thus rewarded for their extraordinary life cycle assessment. Bonus points of this type would be a real incentive for manufacturers to increase their focus on alternative drives. Super credits would there-fore promote innovation, while at the same time being budget neutral. Other countries such as the USA and China are using this instrument in a similar fashion. (continues on next page)

The future of CO2 regulation in Europe: Incentivizing innovation

Source: German Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA), VDA

German automotive manufacturers are reducing emissions sustainablyAverage CO2 emissions of German group brand passenger cars in Germany

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

2015Jan.- Sept. 2012201120102009200820072006

130

g C

O2

/km

142.1146.1152.3157.1166.5171.7175.2

19 % less

objective applies across Europe



3

(continued from page 2) Unfortunately, the EU Commission’s proposals in this regard are completely insufficient. The authori-ties wish to reward a maximum of 20,000 passenger cars, distributed over four years (2020 to 2023), with super credits. This proposal is pointless; its ceiling limit makes it little more than a cosmetic allowance and it also needs to start much earlier. To make this work, one would have to remove the ceiling and allow the regulation to take effect as early as 2016. In this way, the market ramp-up for vehicles with alternative drives could be possible as early as in the coming years and it could be supported in a meaningful way.

In addition to super credits, an “eco-innovation” could also offer similar incentive potential. With the efficiency reserves of engines being increasingly exhausted, it is even more important for the vehicle to be viewed as a whole system. This would involve those technologies that cannot be mapped in a consumption measurement on the test bed. These eco-inno-vations are actually already provided for in the existing regula-tion: solar roofs for interior cooling or the conversion of waste heat into electrical energy, for example. Such systems could substantially lower energy consumption in the car and with that fuel consumption. However, because the EU Commission is handling its recognition of the carbon balance so restric-tively and bureaucratically, these fuel-saving modules have not yet broken through. As a result, no actual eco-innovations are coming on the market. Here too a clever regulation could promote technologies and innovation without having to dip into state coffers.

The automotive industry in Europe is facing enormous economic challenges and at the same time a major paradigm switch. No-one can currently forecast accurately what drive technologies will prevail on the market in the long term. For this reason, companies must take a multi-pronged approach. What technology will make the breakthrough? Battery technology, hydrogen-based fuel cells, plug-in hybrids or perhaps the natural gas-operated car? These questions remain unanswered.

This is no time, therefore, to be considering targets and regulation for the period after 2020. Notwithstanding the above, the EU Commission is already planning to stipulate targets far in advance. However, it is far too early for such decisions. As long as the potential market penetration of alternative drives remains unclear, serious forecasts beyond 2020 are impossible. From today’s perspective, it is not even certain whether the current limit-value regime will have any meaning then, or whether a completely different regulatory system would be necessary.

The automotive industry is committed to its obligation to protect the environment and the climate. We are making our vehicles more efficient and more environmentally friendly all the time and thereby also safer and more comfortable. We do this through innovation and investment. With more sophisti-cated instruments such as super credits and eco-innovations, politicians can further incentivize this development.

Source: Deutsche Automobil-Treuhand (DAT)

The offering of low-emission passenger cars from German companies is continuing to rise significantlyPassenger vehicle models of German group brands with maximum 130 g CO2 emissions/km (corresponds to approx. 5 l consumption/100 km)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

201220112010200920082007

Num

ber

48 77 83

172

274

505



4

On May 3, 2010, the National Platform for Electric Mobility (NPE) established a unique alliance of actors from the worlds of politics, the economy and science. The shared goal was and is to generate recommendations for action to make Germany into the leading supplier and leading market for electric mobility.

One important common conviction of the NPE is that we must apply “electric mobility” not purely to battery electric vehicles, but also to range extenders, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell vehi-cles. The market ramp-up of these new drive forms must and will include partly electrical ones also. The definitions of the individual electrical drive forms are explained to the right.

On June 20, the 3rd report of the NPE was presented to the German Federal Government. The politicians then incorporated the central recommendations in their program for government and are working on their implementation. In addition, practi-cally all the relevant technical universities have adapted their curricula accordingly. Within a year, six “beacons” were estab-lished across the sector with 82 research projects and a budget of around one billion euro. As proposed by the NPE, showcase regions were also selected, whereby people in certain areas of Germany would be particularly close to the electric mobility experience. These test areas are situated in Baden-Württem-berg, Berlin/Brandenburg, Niedersachsen and Bavaria/Sachsen. The establishment of this showcase runs hand in hand with a model offensive on the part of the companies: by the end of 2014 alone, 15 electrified vehicle models that are “Made in Germany” will have come onto the market.

All the good news notwithstanding, we must remain realis-tic. Across the globe the sale of electric vehicles is slow (see figure). As anticipated, their market launch has been anything but an overnight success. Given the limited offering, the high battery prices and the habits of motorists, electrical vehi-cles are - initially - significantly more expensive to buy than comparable conventional vehicles. Against this background, it is helpful that politicians are providing an impetus (transition-ally) to stoke this particular market. In this respect, the NPE and the Federal Government are working on the basis of the following scenario:

Private buyers are likely to be initially cautious. So we will focus on the company car sector. Company cars are bought by employ-ers and are predominantly used for business purposes. For private use, employees are generally taxed on 1% of the gross list price of the vehicle as a non-cash benefit. For electric mobility, this 1% rule can, however, put the brakes on sales, as the higher gross list price of the electric car in comparison to a correspond-ing conventional one means that the employee is financially disadvantaged. As a result of his employer’s willingness to buy an electric car, he must dig deeper into his own pockets.

This would naturally detract significantly from the pleasure and acceptance of environmentally friendly cars.

With this in mind, the German Federal Government has proposed an adjustment to the taxation of company cars for the Annual Tax Act (Jahressteuergesetz) 2013. According to this, a lump-sum discount from the gross list price will be allowed for electric vehicles in respect of taxation according to the 1% rule. Here the additional costs of the battery system are taken into account. Consequently, buyers of an electric company car should not pay more tax than those of a comparable conventional company car. The Bundestag voted in favor of the bill. In the conciliation procedure, it is now a matter of the federal govern-ment and the states coming to an agreement quickly on the Annual Tax Act 2013.

Third report from the National Platform for Electric Mobility

Number of electric cars sold in sample markets

Source: Polk, VDA

Q2 2012Q1 2012

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Great BritainGermanyChinaFranceJapanUSA

+ 28 %

- 13 %

+ 16 %

+ 30 % + 5 % + 28 %

6,210

7,931

4,849

4,240

1,7752,056

1,2061,570

1,226 1,284

410 523

Source: National Platform for Electric Mobility (NPE)

Electrical vehicles are categorized according to their drives:

BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle, rechargeable from the mains, purely battery electric.

PHEV: Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle, fully hybrid with a battery that can be charged from the mains.

REEV: Range Extended Electric Vehicle, mains-rechargeable vehicle with electric motor as the primary drive and a small combustion engine, from which a discharged battery can be recharged during the journey – to a limited degree.

FCEV: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle.

Electric vehicles generallyElectric mobility on the NPE

N E W S S E r V I C E F O r D EC I S I O N M A k E r S I N P O l I T I C S A N D T H E EC O N O M y

5

Natural gas: An underestimated fuel


Alternative drives are not just good for the environment; they are also a solution to rising gasoline prices and the battle for raw materials. The advantages of natural gas* are obvious: the CO2 emissions are significantly lower than for diesel or gasoline and motorists save with every tank refill. German automotive manufacturers are therefore turning increasingly to natural gas and offering new models.

Natural gas: clean, cost-effective, future-proofNatural gas consists predominantly of methane. On combustion, this gas generates approx. 25% less CO2 than gasoline. It also produces significantly less nitrogen oxide and particulate matter. Natural gas vehicles already comply with the strict Euro 6 standard for passenger cars. There is also much better security of supply than with traditional fuels. The secured natu-ral gas reserves are enormous. Germany sources its gas from many regions across the globe with 14% coming from domestic sources, particularly from Niedersachsen. While extraction has been increasing continuously for many years worldwide, the price of gas has fallen considerably from its peak in 2005. This is excellent news for consumers: currently they need to pay only half as much for natural gas as they would for gasoline, for example, in a comparable car. Natural gas mobility is currently the most cost-effective way to run a car.

Not yet widespread enoughHowever natural gas as a fuel is not yet sufficiently known to and widespread among consumers. A representative survey of TNS Infratest revealed that only a few people know about its advantages. It is hardly surprising therefore that the number of natural gas vehicles as a proportion of the entire vehicle stock in 2011 was only 0.17% – around 94,000 vehicles. Despite this very low number, the offering of natural gas vehicles is quite impressive: currently 14 passenger car models are available in Germany – the range extends from the sub-compact through the family van and on to the upper mid-range. In 2013 the variety of models is set to increase again.

Natural gas is an important element of the German automo-tive industry’s multipronged strategy of “reduce – replenish – replace”: in addition to consumption-reduction technologies and completely new drives, the oil-based fuels are also to be replaced with new more climate-friendly fuels – including natural gas.

Improving the political framework conditionsNatural gas also plays a key role in the Federal Government’s fuel strategy. The aim is that by 2020 its share of the German fuel mix will rise to 4%. The number of natural gas vehicles would then have to rise to around 1.4 million to achieve this. In order to get there, more service stations offering this fuel are required. The German Initiative for natural gas-based mobility** wants to increase the offering of natural gas service stations from the current 900 to 1,300 – corresponding to 10% of the German service station network. Because it is only when motorists start to see natural gas service stations more frequently that they will seriously consider it as an option. The expansion of the network could be supported politically: a reduction in the network charges for natural gas services stations would be desirable as they currently pay more than other users. Also the kfW support program to build natural gas services stations should be devel-oped further in line with the market so that it is availed of more.

Another central proposal aims at ensuring that the currently advantageous taxation of natural gas does not run out. Meas-ured by energy content, natural gas is currently taxed at 13.90 euro per megawatt hour. To compare: for diesel the rate is 47.20 euro/MWh. In 2019, the tax rate for natural gas is to rise by 130%. This could thwart the market opportunities of these vehicles. Because, depending on the vehicle type, the price advantage of the environmentally friendly fuel could be reduced so significantly that it would no longer be worthwhile having a natural gas vehicle. The current tax rate should apply until the goal of 1.4 million vehicles is achieved. Through a degressive development of the tax relief – which the Initiative for natural gas-based mobility proposes – the losses to the treasury in tax revenue will remain limited and calculable.

The promotion of service station expansion and an extension of the energy tax concession are two core elements of a policy in favor of the environmentally-friendly and future-proof natural gas. Despite all of this, the automotive industry is still obliged to win over many more customers for natural gas, because natural gas has huge potential as a fuel of the future. It is therefore strategi-cally right and necessary that the worlds of politics and business should further promote this energy source for transport also.

Bundestag fleet is pioneeringIn September 2011, the car service provider for the members of the Bundestag bought 37 new sedans run exclusively on bio-methane. The carbon footprint of these vehicles is only 38 grams CO2 per kilometer. By 2013, a further 100 natural gas sedans will be bought, making the Bundestag fleet a standard for clean and environmentally-friendly natural gas mobility.

* Natural gas includes both CNG “Compressed Natural Gas” and lNG “liquefied Natural Gas”.** The Initiative for natural gas-based mobility (Initiative Erdgasmobilität) brings together vehicle manufacturers, service stations, natural and biogas industries, gas technology and ADAC (German Automobile Club); it is coordinated by the German Energy Agency (dena) and established under the auspices of the Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development (BMVBS).

Development of added-value by region/segment, selected region in billions of euro

Source: FAST 2025

Europe remains an important region for automotive added-value and, together with China, dominates the global industry

PremiumVolumeCompactCAGR (annual growth rate)X.X %

2012 2025

North America

1.4 %

170 200

2012 2025

Japan and South Korea

0.6 %

170 185

2012 2025

Europe

2.8 %

240340

2012 2025

China

5.3 %

150

300

2012 2025

India

10.2 %

2590

2012 2025

South America

3.3 %

35 50


6


The task facing the automotive industry is pretty tough. regional expansion, new players, extraordinarily high invest-ment in new technologies as well as increasing volatility in the markets and more specific and individual customer requests are set to pose huge challenges for automotive manufacturers and suppliers in the coming years. This is clearly shown in the latest study “FAST 2025 – Future Automotive Industry Struc-ture” by Oliver Wyman and the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA). According to this, global compe-tition is gaining momentum. In particular, the ever growing importance of the emerging economies will have a serious impact on value generated by OEMs and suppliers. New areas of business such as electric mobility and vehicle networking also pose new and demanding challenges for companies.

The study, based among other things on interviews with 140 top managers from the automotive industry, examines the structure and development of value-added structures in research and development, component production and vehicle assembly.

It comes to the conclusion that the value added will grow worldwide by 2025 – by around 3% per year. This development is being driven by China and India predominantly. Consequently, China will extend its position as the most important manufac-turing country in the world. Europe will remain strong and also the leading location for r&D.

The authors of “FAST 2025” expect the division of labor between manufacturers and suppliers to change somewhat over the coming decades. With manufacturers focusing on additional core competences, suppliers will gain additional shares in the value-added chain, both in r&D and in production. The strongest growth field in production will be that of electric drives. The rise in value-added of this module is estimated at more than 20% per year.

The entire study has been published by the VDA as Volume 45 of the series “Materials on the Automotive Industry”; it can be ordered from the Department Automotive supply industry and medium-sized businesses.

Future study by Oliver Wyman and the VDA: The automotive industry is facing enormous challenges


7


The VDA welcomes the decision of the German coalition government to increase its investment in the road infrastructure by 750 million euro compared to the previous base. This lays down an important marker, as a functioning infrastructure is key to growth and employment in Germany.

The Infrastructure acceleration program II will bring an addi-tional 570 million euro for autobahns and highways, 470 million of which will be made available as early as 2013. 140 million euro will be allocated to the waterways and 40 million to the railroads. This will ease the budgetary bottlenecks a little.

However, this positive investment impetus cannot blind us to the fact that an ongoing consolidation of the transport budget is essential. There is a shortfall up to 2016 of up to 1.7 billion euro for the ongoing expansion and new build projects for the freeways alone. Furthermore, projects with a volume of seven billion euro are officially approved but waiting for finance. The maintenance investments must also be increased progres-sively to 3.5 billion euro per year by the end of the decade. After multiple increases over the last years around 2.5 billion euro are currently made available for this. By this measure, the increased budget remains significantly short of what is actually required. An increase in investment in the transportation network to a level that meets the requirements and its consolidation is there-fore urgently required.

Infrastructure policy, in particular, is reliant on longer-term funds that can be planned. When financial resources are only ever allocated in the short term, this often leads to a project only being built because it is ready for building. Other projects, in contrast, which would actually be more important, remain unconsidered because they were not driven through to the stage of being ready for building due to a lack of planning security.

The passenger car toll called for by some only appears to be a way to ensure the strengthening and continuation of trunk road investment. The experiences with the truck toll prove this. Although the transport business and the economy were hit with additional charges of, on average, nearly four billion euro as a result, investment in the road network was not increased over-all. The budgetary resources were therefore curtailed accord-ingly. Given the consolidation pressure on the public coffers, everything points to a car toll simply making the roads more expensive, but not better.

It is also worth remembering that road traffic is already currently burdened with specific taxes and duties to the tune of around 50 billion euro. Continuing to turn the tax screws would therefore mean that for an increasing number of people car travel would struggle to be financially feasible. However many citizens remain dependent on their cars; driving one should not become a luxury.

Coalition increases investment in trunk roads – long-term consolidation required

Development of freeway investments in Germany

Source: Pro Mobilität

in billions of euro

Toll resourcesResources from the infrastructural acceleration programs Resources from the economic stimulus package

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

20132012201120102009200820072006200520042003

Budgetary resources

Requirement

4.65 3.81 3.44 3.85 3.83 3.76 3.16 2.81 1.57 1.5 1.45

1.12 1.76 1.3 1.09 1.31 2.12.04

3.31 3.5 3.24

0.9

0.63 0.34 0.4 0.67


8


Source: VDA 2012

About 600 member companies constitute the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA). They elect the managing board at their biennial general meeting.

Technology Commercial vehicles, trailers, bodies and busesAutomotive supply industry and medium-sized businesses

Logistics Economic and climate protection policyAftermarket

Environment policy and technical environment protection Statistics, analyses, forecastsExhibitions

Research Association for Automotive Technology (FAT) European policy and VDA branch office in BrusselsTaxes and customs duties

Automotive Standards Committee Law and insurances Transport policy

Quality Management Center (QMC) Inhouse communicationHR, finance, central services

Historical vehicles

Dr.-Ing. Ulrich Eichhorn Dr. Kay LindemannKlaus BräunigSupport of manufacturer group III Support of manufacturer board II

Business unit

CommunicationsPressPresident

Matthias Wissmann

Executive committee/Management board

Automobiles and respective enginesManufacturer group I

Trailers, bodies and containers Manufacturer group II

Parts and accessories Manufacturer group III

General meeting

Managing Boardelected on November 9, 2012

Bernhard MattesFord-Werke GmbH

Matthias MüllerDr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG

Dr. Georg Pachta-Reyhofen MAN SE

Dr. Norbert ReithoferBayerische Motoren Werke AG

Dr. Thomas SedranAdam Opel AG

Rupert StadlerAudi AG

Prof. Dr. Martin WinterkornVolkswagen AG Dr. Daniel Böhmer

Franz Xaver Meiller Fahrzeug-und Maschinenfabrik GmbH & Co. KG

Jürgen SpierSpier GmbH & Co. Fahrzeugwerk KG

Dr. Elmar DegenhartContinental AG

Dr. Volkmar DennerRobert Bosch GmbH

Arndt G. KirchhoffKirchhoff Automotive GmbH & Co. KG

Gertrud Moll-Möhrstedt Akkumulatorenfabrik MollGmbH & Co. KG

Dr. Stefan SommerZF Friedrichshafen AG

Dr. Stefan WolfElringKlinger AG

Ulrich Schöpker (Vice President)Schmitz Cargobull AG

Dr. Dieter Zetsche (Vice President)Daimler AG

Dr.-Ing. Jürgen Geißinger (Vice President)Schaeffler AG

Matthias Wissmann (President)VDA

ImprintPublisher German Association of the Automotive Industry VDA (Verband der Automobilindustrie) Behrenstr. 35 D-10117 Berlin Germany www.vda.de

responsible for contents Dr. kay lindemann Managing Director Phone + 49 30 897842 - 107 Fax + 49 30 897842 - 603 Email [email protected]

Editor Sabine Steinhoff Team Communication Phone + 49 30 897842 - 133 Fax + 49 30 897842 - 603 Email [email protected]

Contributors to this Political report Tineke Bartsch, Sandra Courant, ralf Diemer, Alexander Fritz, Dennis klingebiel, Peter Mair, Dr. Michael Niedenthal, Angelika Ohse, Dr. Thomas Schwarz, Dr. Jakob Seiler, Helmut Weirich

Status December 2012

Documents

Politikbrief 02/2012 - VDA · 2014. 10. 30. · Politikbrief 02/2012 The future of CO 2 regulation in Europe: Incentivizing innovation 2 Europe is currently planning the toughest