Political Socialization, Public Opinion, Polling Socializati… · olitical Socialization Process through which an individual acquires particular political orientations, beliefs,

Political Socialization,Public Opinion, and Polling

asic Tenants of American olitical Culture

iberty/FreedomPeople should be free to live their lives with minimal governmental interference

qualityPolitical, legal, & of opportunity, but not economic equality

ndividualismResponsibility for own decisions

emocracyConsent of the governedMajority rule, with minority rightsCitizen responsibilities (voting, jury duty, etc.)

olitical Culture vs. Ideology

Most Americans share common beliefs in he democratic foundation of government culture) yet have differing opinions on the

proper role & scope of government ideology)

olitical Socialization

Process through which an individual acquires particular political orientations, beliefs, and values

at factors influence political opinion mation?

Family #1 source for political identificationBetween 60-70% of all children agree with their parents upon reaching adulthood.

If one switches his/her party affiliation it usually goes from Republican/Democrat to independent

hat factors influence political opinion mation?

School/level of education “Building good citizens”- civic education reinforces views about participation

Pledge of Allegiance Volunteering Civic pride is nation wide

Informed student-citizens are more likely to participate/vote as adultsVoting patterns based on level of educational attainment

hat factors influence political opinion rmation?

Peer group/occupationIncreases in importance during teen yearsOccupational influences

hat factors influence political opinion mation?

Mass mediaImpact of television Avg. American watches 30+ hours of TV per week Alternative sources of information gathering- Internet,

radio, magazines, newspapers Growing use of “alternative” news sources- Daily Show, Colbert ReportEncouraging the youth vote- Rock the Vote, Vote or Die MTV sponsored campaignsShort attention span- Avg media soundbite of 2008 election was 7seconds

What factors influence political opinion ormation?

Religionecond best predictor of voting behavior besides arty identification

Represent large voting blocs:Religious Right, Moral Majority (‘80s), Silent Majority (‘70s)

ifferences exist between religious affiliationsmpact of religion & politics:

Abortion, school prayer, aid to parochial schools, Elections George W. Bush Barrack Obama


Race and ethnicity Demographic group tendencies


GenderFemales tend to focus on social issues while males key on economic policies


AgePoliticians focus on securing the elderly vote important as they represent the most consistent voting blocTendency to become more conservative as one ages


Impact of eventsWhat one has experienced (Great Depression, WWII, Vietnam, 9/11) and the government’s response to it shapes how one sees the “proper” role of government in societyDo you remember what you were doing when…


. Residence locationBeliefs/voting tendencies by region: Sunbelt states (Latino and elderly vote) Solid South Urban northeast Western states Midwest/rustbelt

ublic Opinion

What people think about an issue or set of issues at any given point in time

orming political opinions

Ideologues vs. the massesdeologues view politics strictly on a beral/conservative ideology and vote ccordingly

orming political opinions

Ideologues vs. the massesThe masses filter information through the scope of:Personal benefits “I” society, pocketbook voting, support issues benefiting

themPolitical knowledge Increased political awareness increases participation

(Knowing the candidates and issues)Cues from leaders Use the media to mold public opinion

y is government policy often at odds with public opinion?

The Framers did not try to create a government that would from day to day follow the whims of the peopleConstitutional checks on public opinion: Representative government Federalism Separation of powers & checks & balances The Bill of Rights An independent judiciary Difficulty in amending the ConstitutionOther checks such as staggered election cycles

hy is government policy often at odds with public nion?

s not easy to know what the public thinkslling has limits: Polling error- survey, sample, analysis, coverageRespondent knowledge of the issue(s)/event(s)

onetary Control Bill of 2003 example:200 Cincinnati residents surveyed% favored the bill, 25% did not, remaining unsure

here was no such thing as the Monetary Control Bill

hy is government policy often at odds with public nion?

pinions of people who are active in and owledgeable about politics, carry more

eight in crafting government policy decisions

government attends more to the views of the litical elite (activists, interest groups, donors) an the silent majority

What are necessary components a valid public opinion poll?

Question wording- unbiased & unambiguousProper sampling

Random RepresentativeAdequate sample size

Low margin of error

olling Results

id polls include the following: The questions and sampling methodHow the respondents were contactedThe number of respondents surveyedError rate (+/- 3% or less is acceptable)


Determining content and phrasing questions

ample- “If the government takes our guns that we use to protect our families away from us, only criminals will have guns and we will all be in danger. Are you in favor of placing your family in greater danger? Yes/No”


Selecting the sample Determine your “universe” Who do you want information from?

Registered voters, ethnic group, age, gender, all Americans…


Selecting the samplepes of sampling:a. Random- in practice nearly impossible to obtain a rue sample (under/over representation)

b. Quota- draw sample based off known emographic statistics, accurate but often

oversample the visible population. Stratified- use of census data to divide the country

nto sampling regions. Example- Random selection of counties and metropolitan areas are taken to the total national population


Conducting the poll #1 way still is the telephone

Other methods: In-person interview, internet, call-in method

ults of each… ex. Who answers the phones? Elderly more likely to be home, soap opera moms, cell v. landlines, working shifts etc


Analyze and report the data

ypes of political pollsTraditional public opinion poll- survey to gain the public’s nput on a matter. Tracking- continuous surveys to track the rise and fall of an ssue/candidate. Reliability problems but decent measure of trends.Push- designed to plant disinformation about a candidate or ssue in the minds of those being surveyed. Purpose is to hape, rather than measure, public opinion. Poor questioning Example- John McCain v. GW Bush 2000 SC primary

Exit- polls conducted at polling places on election day. Historically caused West Coast apathy

aults in public opinion polling

espondent Issues:Ignorance on the issue(s)Instability of views over time- impact of events alter perceptions

aults in public opinion pollingling Issues:

Sampling error- difference in opinion between the actual universe and the sample taken

Limited respondent options & difficulty in measuring intensity of respondents’ views -Yes/No, Like/Dislike A simple “yes” does not measure the intensity of the respondent’s view of issues such as abortion, the death penalty, etc.

Sensitivity to question wording- poor questions lead to poor polling results (see example on next slide)

ow a pollster phrases a question an alter the response

pic: Federal government housinguestion 1: “The federal government should e to it that all people have adequate using.” (59% agreed)

uestion 2: “Do you believe that (insert estion 1) or each person should provide for

s own housing.” (53% opposed fed housing)uestion 3: Switched the order of question 2 0% opposed federal housing)

olls and Democracy

Advantagesows public to express nions to leadersables leaders to plement public eferences on key ues

Detriments Transform leaders into

followers Bandwagon effect- polls

manipulate public opinion in elections & policy

oncluding thoughts of public pinion

What shapes public opinion, poll results or people’s opinions? Do the polls drive public opinion (bandwagon effect), or

does public opinion drive the polls?Democratic process based on informed citizenry yet lack of public knowledge makes for misguided government policy 74% of population can name the Three Stooges 50% know the name given to the first ten Amendments 43% the three branches of government 25% can name their two senators

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Political Socialization, Public Opinion, Polling Socializati… · olitical Socialization Process through which an individual acquires particular political orientations, beliefs,