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7/27/2019 Politica Economy of Climate Change in Pakistan
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Political Economy of Climate Change in Pakistan
Zulfiqar Shah
Climate change has left a devastative impact on the Sindh province of Pakistan, posing threats to its
economic, social and security fabric. The scenario contains possibilities of worst long-lasting changes in
the demography, ethnic security, life, and livelihood. More than 20 million people have already beendisplaced along with the loss of hundreds of billion dollars during the 2010-2011 floods. This is just a
beginning of the climate theatre.
Subtropical Sindh temperature averages fall between 46 C and 2 C. It has dry weather, although it
receives rainfall from two systems the westerly monsoon from the Bay of Bengal in the Indian Ocean
and the easterly rain system from the Himalayan northeast.
The water requirement of Sindh has historically been fulfilled by the Indus floods. The last two decades
were extremely dry due to scarce raining coupled with insufficient water discharge to the downstream
Indus. Such a reduced flow was manmade because of water-theft by the upper riparian Punjab
province through dams and water diversions channels. The situation kicked off an extensive ecological
disaster in the Indus Delta region of the lower riparian Sindh. The Indus flood of 2010 and rain floods of
2011 were not only the exceptions due to the changing climate patterns but also a shock to the people
who had been experiencing dryness and water scarcity for two decades, and thus, were unprepared for
the suddenly changed situation and consequently, thrown into heavy humanitarian crises.
Northern Sindh, the passage of the thermal equator, has extreme dry features. The highest temperature
ever recorded in Sindh was 53.5 C at the archeological site of Mohen-jo-Daro on 26 May 2010, which
was the fourth highest temperature on the earth; however this preceded the second highest of the
region 52.8 C, which was also recorded in Sindh on June 12, 1919. Above 6,800 feet altitude, in the hill
peaks of Kirthar temperatures mostly fall below the freezing point during December January; however,at the Indus plains, it occasionally drops to 0 C and once every 25 years it falls to 7 C.
The globally changing climate has left more catastrophic impacts on Sindh than on any coastal area of
South Asia. A remarkable change in the precipitation levels has been noted during 1970-2000, indicating
above 9% annual increase in the southeastern parts of the province, above 70% increase in the northern
parts, and a decline of 32% to 38% in Southwestern Sindh.
According to a research study conducted by the author for Inter Church Organization for Development
Coordination (ICCO) - Netherlands, the cultivation cycle as well as patterns change has debased the
traditional agriculture calendar of the region, as the cropping calendar has now forwarded one month
ahead. Increase in weather extremes coupled with the shortened autumns and springs; and undergoing
erratic and unpredictable rainfall patterns has capsized living style, culture, and agriculture economy. A
decreasing water table by 30% to 40% combined with soil degradation has caused a decline of 30% to
50% yield reduction in various crop pattern areas, although the use of agriculture inputs has increased
over last two decades from 40% to 60%. Besides, reduction in the grass cover has caused decline in the
quantity of livestock, which along with other factors like the dairy industry has caused a hike in dairy
products. The impacts of changing climate have started altering social chemistry of the province.
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Subsoil water table in the province stabilizes only during the exceptional floods and rainfalls. Cold
weather intensity has perceptibly increased across the province; however, its duration has now become
confined to an average period of one month, which earlier went on for two to three months.
Biodiversity impacts of the climate change are visible through reduction of many species and the
extinction of some. Rare species like jungle cats, tigers, wolves, jackals, gazelle and deer are almostextinct and herons, doves, ducks, grey and black partridges, waterfowls, peacocks, vultures, wild boars,
deers and ibexes have decreased in numbers. Balm (populus euphratica), Siras (mimosa sivissa), and
Pipal (ficus religiosa) are near to extinction, while Kandi (prosopis specigera), Babul (acacia arabica), and
Kahu coverage has reduced. Insects like butterflies are near to extinction, meanwhile the reptiles like
Cobra and Gharial (gavialis gangeticus), lizards, and vipers are soon to vanish.
According to a research study on Climate Change carried out by the Oxfam GB - Pakistan, some
traditional practices that were used to predict incoming sea storms and intense rainfall were the
appearance of small bubbles in creek water, a bull let loose that then ran east, and seawater becoming
cold. Communities would rely on these indicators to prepare themselves for intense storms. Now,
however, they find that such indicators do not always manifest themselves and leave the communities
unable to predict and prepare for changes in the weather.
During 1970 -2000, an extensive sea intrusion was reported in the Indus Delta area that intruded upon
nearly 2 million acres land. According to a study, approximately 158,000-acre cover of Mangrove forest
turned into barren plains during the mentioned periodan area that catered almost 120,000 people of
the Indus Delta area with fuel wood, gave fodder support to 16,000 camels and nurtured 44 fish species.
The fish and shellfish catch from the Indus Delta was 348,689 metric tons in 1993 and was reduced to
64,400 metric tons in 2000 according to the Sindh Government. Fish, prawn, and lobster catches in the
lakes of coastal Badin have shrunk due to sea intrusion.
The climate change impacts on Sindh potentially turn it into a climate devastation zone of South Asia,
with four major social, economic, and political dimensions:
i. Migrations from rural Sindh to the urban hubs of Karachi, Hyderabad, and Sukkur put hugepopulation pressure on cities that have inadequate infrastructure. In the case of Karachi, it
may give birth to ethnic conflicts and riots in the already violence-ridden metropolitan.
Besides, as expected according to the modulated predictions by International Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), the remarkable decline in the rainfall and increase in the dryness in
Punjab during upcoming decades most possibly increases Sindh-ward migration from
Punjab, which ultimately will cause a violent conflict between Sindh and Punjab within thefederation of Pakistan. In the given situation, the ongoing forced exodus of Hindus from
Sindh can also be seen in the future demographic interests of Punjab province in Pakistan.
There may also be an increase in the interstate migrations towards India, Iran, and
Afghanistan.
ii. The rural economy of Sindh will certainly face a huge decline, giving rise to vulnerablepoverty and thereby altering the socioeconomic chemistry of the Sindhi-speaking majority.
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The feudal base of power will be reduced and a sociological anarchy caused by the climate
change may take place by next decade combined by a large-scale displacement.
iii. Demographic changes in Sindh caused by decline in rural economy, reduction in agricultureoutput and displacements due to unpredictable Indus River and rain floods will leave deeper
impacts on the political fabric of Sindh as well as Pakistan. Sharpened political conflicts
along with a new political discourse will emerge containing both violent as well as
reconciliatory aptitudes at the same time.
iv. The situation will challenge governance as well as the federal practices in the country. Theconcerns of provincial sovereignty of Sindh and Sindhi people will extensively emerge along
with the entirely new paradigm of ethnic and demographic security in Pakistan. The ongoing
water conflicts in Pakistan may convert into water wars between Sindh and Punjab province
and may translate into ethnic violence between Sindhis and Punjabis.
The situation may have many adverse tendencies including water rights conflicts, food insecurities, IDPs
rights issues, anarchy and state failure. The scenario requires a wider range of initiatives at the Sindh
regional level combined with tangible actions at the federal level:
1. An extensive process of research regarding agriculture extension services, crop patterns,harvesting, seeds and soil as well as livestock and fisheries need be undertaken.
2. Futuristic thinking over the utilization of rainwater and various sustainable irrigation methodsneed to be adopted.
3. Pakistan needs to declare a Climate Emergency in Sindh, which may ultimately lead to new legaland policy framework through legislation that may include the framing of:
a) Pakistan Water Act for sustainable and judicious use and interprovincial distribution of water;
b) Sindh Water Act for the judicious and sustainable use and distribution of water between
upper and lower riparian;c) Sindh Forrest Act for the forest preservation and reforestation and resisting all kinds of forest
land grabbing;
d) Pakistan Coastal and Sindh Shore Acts for sustainable costal livelihood regime;
e) Pakistan Climate Change Act for long-term environmental policy integrated with the climate
change situation; and finally
f) Sindh Building Act for the disaster resistant construction and infrastructure development.
4. An entirely new course of water management is required with special focus on the waterpreservations for dry seasons; water loss reduction; water treatment planning; improving water
infrastructure; conservation of aquifer and water bodies as well as flood water utilization
planning.5. A new framework of disaster management needs to be placed at federal, provincial and
community levels based on minimizing tube well irrigation, eradicating illegal private structures
near the riverbanks, disaster mitigation planning, fodder preservation planning during the
floods, and improved flood management.
6. Research bodies and institution focused on the climate change be established at federal andSindh level and their coordination mechanism must be developed. The experts, scientists, and
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researchers should be provided with the necessary scientific training and access to the climate
data.
7. Political parties, parliamentarians and bureaucracy should be often briefed on the climatechange.
Zulfiqar Shah is a researcher, analyst and activist. He is Executive Director at The Institute for SocialMovements, Pakistan.