12
Poland MARKET INSIGHTS H1 2016

Poland MARKET INSIGHTS - Colliers International · 3 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International Economy General overview > In Q2 2016, a decrease in GDP

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Poland MARKET INSIGHTS - Colliers International · 3 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International Economy General overview > In Q2 2016, a decrease in GDP

Poland

MARKET INSIGHTSH1 2016

Page 2: Poland MARKET INSIGHTS - Colliers International · 3 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International Economy General overview > In Q2 2016, a decrease in GDP

2 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International

ContentsContentsContentsContents

Economy ........................................ 3

Investment ..................................... 4

Office ............................................. 6

Industrial ........................................ 8

Retail ............................................. 10

Page 3: Poland MARKET INSIGHTS - Colliers International · 3 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International Economy General overview > In Q2 2016, a decrease in GDP

3 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International

Economy

General overview

> In Q2 2016, a decrease in GDP growth was noted, by 0.5 pp in comparison to Q1 2015. In turn, GDP growth was

estimated at approx. 3.1% in Q2 of this year.

> The deflation rate is still persisting in Poland at -0.9% and

is caused mostly by global price developments. The

persisting deflation did not adversely affect consumers

decisions.

> The Monetary Policy Council did not change the reference rate in 2016 and left it unchanged at 1.5%.

> A decrease in the unemployemnt rate was noted in May

2016, by 1.7 pp compared to the same period in 2015

(between 10.8% and 9.1%).

> The average monthly gross salary in the enterprise sector at the end of Q2 2016 amounted to PLN 4244.58.

> Brexit may influence the Polish economy and open new directions of expansion in the investment market.

Prognosis

> Additional payments from the Family 500+ programme will

affect GDP results in the coming quarters. However, in

spite of an increase in household incomes, BZ WBK experts

estimate a GDP slowdown in the next two years (2017-

2018).

> In the coming months of 2016, we predict that the inflation

rate will stay at a level below zero. According to experts‘

expectations, the headline CPI may reach a positive value

at the end of this year.

> BZ WBK analysts expect that the unemployment rate will

reach 8.6% in Q2 2016 – the lowest value for more than

25 years.

GDP growth rate (%)

Source: Colliers International, based on Central Statistical Office, BZ WBK

Unemployment rate and inflation (%)

Source: Colliers International, based on Central Statistical Office, Ministry

of Labour and Social Policy

3,7%

4,8%

1,8% 1,7%

3,3%3,6%

3,0%

3,1%

prognosis

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1

2016

Q2

2016

GDP

2,6%

4,3%3,7%

0,9%0,0%

-0,9% -0,9% -0,9%

12,4% 12,4%13,4% 13,4%

11,5%10,5%

10,0%

8,8%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Inflation Unemployment

Page 4: Poland MARKET INSIGHTS - Colliers International · 3 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International Economy General overview > In Q2 2016, a decrease in GDP

4 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International

Investment

Key investment figures

Investment volume ca. EUR 2.1 bn

Prime yields

Prime office yields < 5.50%

Prime retail yields ca. 5.00%

Prime industrial yields ca. 6.50%

General overview

> Total value of H1 2016 transactions amounted to ca. EUR 2.1 billion out of which 84% were located outside

of Warsaw. Nearly half of the volume constituted the

transaction of purchasing shares in Echo by Redefine.

> Poland remains the leading market in the CEE region, it

also witnessed the largest deal in Europe in Q1 2016.

> Investor demand was equally strong across all asset

classes, new buyers have deployed capital in Poland.

Yields

> Pricing for core assets continues to be primarily driven by the residual lease term, the market has recorded

a downward adjustment of prime yields in H1 2016.

> Prime office yields for CBD Warsaw are now below 5.50%,

whilst initial yields in major regional cities (Wrocław and

Kraków) are at 6.25%.

> Retail yields are in the range of 5.0% - 5.5% for Warsaw

and major regional cities for modern, 3rd generation,

dominant, trophy-type assets, up to ca. 8.0% - 8.5% for

shopping centers in smaller secondary cities.

> Prime logistics yields are at 6.5% (mostly BTS), subject to

the quality and duration of the underlying cash flow.

Prime (net initial) yields

Source: Colliers International

Volumes

> Total investment volume amounted to ca. EUR 2.1 billion

with an average ticket of ca. €30 million per transaction

(excluding the EPP/Redefine deal).

> The market recorded 42 transactions across all asset classes with several new market players completing their

first deals in Poland (f.ex. Warburg – HiH, Exeter).

> Largely due to the transacion between Redefine and Echo Prime Properties (EPP), retail asset class dominated the

investment volume with a 47% share, followed by offices

at 39%.

Investment volume

Source: Colliers International

Page 5: Poland MARKET INSIGHTS - Colliers International · 3 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International Economy General overview > In Q2 2016, a decrease in GDP

5 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International

Deal specifics and stories

> The Polish market recorded the largest transaction in Europe in the first quarter of 2016 – sale of a 75% stake in

Echo Prime Properties, owner of 18 shopping centers and

office buildings for ca. EUR 900 million. The buyer was

Redefine, an investor originating out of South Africa.

> The market picked up the pace in Q2 2016 and other most notable transactions, apart from the above retail deal,

included acquisition of Ferio retail scheme in Konin by

Union Investment and Jantar retail scheme by CBRE Global

Investors. New markets became active, highlighted by the

sale of Alchemia office building in Gdańsk.

> Regional cities accounted for 84% of the overall

transaction volume.

Investment volume by sector

Source: Colliers International

Prognosis

> Considering the number of deals in due diligence and

negotiations, the 2015 investment volume of

ca. EUR 4.1 billion can be surpassed at the end of 2016.

> We expect more new buyers to enter or (re-enter) the

market in H2 2016.

Land

> In H1 2016, the investment land market was characterised by a high level of purchasing, which was caused by a

continuous good period for residential developers. Tempted

by consecutive record breaking quarters in terms of new

apartment sales, an improving economy and a balanced

banking sector that guarantees lower interest rates of bank

loans, developers gathered investment land giving them an

opportunity for long-term new scheme protection at

already very limited resources.

> The industrial land market speeded up and as a result of conditions in Q3 and Q4 of 2015, it hit a record-breaking

transaction volume for whole 2015 compared to the last

3 or 4 years.

> Very optimistic opportunities are available in the hotel market, which caused by many investments in 2016.

> Investment land for the development of offices and retail schemes are gradually becoming more attractive in the

eyes of investors.

> In 2016, an increase in the purchase of investment land is

predicted in the residential and hotel sectors, with a limited

growth in interest for office and industrial land. In the

current year there is a high chance that the volume of

investment land transactions will exceed 2015.

Page 6: Poland MARKET INSIGHTS - Colliers International · 3 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International Economy General overview > In Q2 2016, a decrease in GDP

6 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International

Office

General overview

> At the end of the H1 2016, the total supply in the nine major markets in Poland reached 8.6 milllion m2. Within the six

months, developers completed a record amount of office

space – almost 572,000 m2.

> Kraków and Tricity were the regional cities with the highest growth. In H1 2016, in the capital more than

350,000 m2 were delivered to the market and compared to

the previous few years it is a better result than the annual

average for Warsaw.

> Over 1.4 million m2 of modern office space is under

construction. The capital accounts for 609,000 m2 of new

offices and in regional cities there is still most of space

being built in Kraków (287,000 m2), Wrocław (165,000 m2)

and Tricity (122,000 m2).

> The vacancy rate in Poland recorded a slight increase to 13.4% compared to 12.6% at the end of Q1 2016.

Investments delivered to the market in Q2 2016 were 54%

commercialised.

Key office figures (H1 2016)

> Within the six months, the volume of transactions in the

nine major markets amounted to 627,200 m2. Agreements

in buildings that are planned or under construction

constituted more than 27% of total demand. This resulted

in over 170,000 m2 of leased space.

> The share of renegotiations/extensions amounted to

approximately 23.7% of gross demand. New agreements

still constituted the largest part of the total volume at

almost 60%.

> Base rents remained unchanged. Office space in Warsaw

was offered from EUR 12 to EUR 22.5/m² per month, while

in regional cities from EUR 10 to EUR 16.5/m2 per month.

Supply

> In the H1 2016, in Warsaw a record amount of office space

was completed. Sixteen new projects were delivered to the

market with a total leseable area exceeding 350,000 m2.

Over half of the new supply was completed in the city

centre where two of the largest office buildings were

finished: Warsaw Spire A (Tower), offering over 59,000 m2

and Q22 (46,400 m2). Most office space outside the city

centre was delivered in the South West zone (58,900 m2)

and in the North zone (49,000 m2). The largest projects

completed in non-central locations are Gdański Business

Center II D (29,3000 m2) and Proximo I (28,700 m2).

City Existing supply (m2) New supply (m2) Vacancy rate Space under

construction (m2) Demand (m2)

Rental rates (m2/month)

Warsaw 4,988,400 350,100 15.4% 609,200 358,600 EUR 12-22.5

Kraków 832,900 66,500 6.0% 287,500 110,100 EUR 13.2-15.5

Wrocław 757,100 48,300 10.2% 165,200 52,500 EUR 12.5-16.5

Tricity 629,300 52,700 13.5% 121,900 36,700 EUR 13.5-15.75

Poznań 395,700 10,900 13.3% 48,000 26,300 EUR 12.5-15.5

Katowice 404,400 12,900 14.3% 67,000 21,000 EUR 12-14

Łódź 347,200 23,300 9.7% 91,100 18,400 EUR 12-13.5

Szczecin 166,100 7,400 17.7% - 2,100 EUR 11-14

Lublin 132,600 - 7.8% 73,300 1,500 EUR 10-13

TotalTotalTotalTotal 8,653,600 572,000 13.4% 1,463,700 627,200

Source: Colliers International based on PORF, H1 2016

Page 7: Poland MARKET INSIGHTS - Colliers International · 3 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International Economy General overview > In Q2 2016, a decrease in GDP

7 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International

> In the regional markets, 33 office projects were completed

with a total area of 221,900 m2. In H1 2016, most supply

was delivered in Kraków (66,500 m2), where 11 projects

were finished, but only two of them with an area equal to

or exceeding 10,000 m2. These were Bonarka for Business

F (10,000 m2) and O3 Business Campus I (19,200 m2).

A significant increase in supply was also registered in

Wrocław (48,300 m2) and Tricity (52,700 m2), where

Pegaz building (18,500 m2, Wrocław), Nicolas Business

Center (9,300 m2, Wrocław) and two buildings at Łużycka

Street in Gdynia - Tensor X and Y (12,500 m2 both) were

completed.

Demand

> The total volume of transactions registered in H1 2016 in Warsaw amounted to 358,800 m2. Most contracts (over

22% of total demand) were signed in the Upper South

zone (80,800 m2). In total, in non-central locations

transactions were signed for over 236,000 m2. In the city

centre the gross demand amounted to 122,200 m2. In

Warsaw, new agreements dominated with almost a 60%

share. Pre-lets accounted for approximatelly 17% of the

total volume.

> In H1 2016, the gross demand in regional markets

amounted to 268,400 m2 and a significant part of this was

made up of agreements signed in Kraków (41% of the total

volume). Wrocław and Tricity also registered a high level

of tenant activity. Almost 40% of total demand was

constituted by pre-lets, which resulted in 107,100 m2 of

leased space. Likewise in the capital, new contracts

dominated the market with a 58.3% share.

Largest lease transactions in H1 2016

Tenant Area (m2) Location

Credit Suisse 10,800 Grunwaldzki Center,

Wrocław

Aon 10,700 Enterprise Park E,

Kraków

Euroclear Bank 10,000 Bonarka for Business G,

Kraków

ABB 10,000 Axis, Kraków

Philip Morris HQ 8,000 Philip Morris Europejskie

Centrum Usług Wspólnych, Kraków

Allegro 7,600 Q22, Warsaw

NC+ 7,500 Canal+, Warsaw

Brown Brothers

Harriman 7,500

Orange Office Park Den

Hauge, Kraków

Rockwell Automation 7,400 A4 Business Park III,

Katowice

Primulator 7,300 Primulator, Łódź

Source: Colliers International based on PORF, H1 2016

Vacant space

> The vacancy rate for Warsaw increased to 15.4% (against

14.1% at the end of Q1 2016). The increase in vacancies

was registered mainly in the city centre from 14.2% to

17.6%, which was largely dictated by the delivery in the

capital’s centre of nearly 134,000 m2 of new offices.

> The lowest vacancy rate was recorded in Kraków (6%),

Lublin (7.7%) and Łódź (9.7%). Most of the free space is

currently in Szczecin (17.7%) and Katowice (14.3%).

Vacancy rates in the major office markets in Poland

in H1 2016

Source: Colliers International based on PORF, H1 2016

Prognosis

> Currently in Poland, 1.46 million m2 of new office space is

still under construction. Warsaw accounts for 609,000 m2,

of which over 90,000 m2 will be completed by the end of

the year and a further 303,000 m2 next year. In regional

markets, most projects in the construction phase are in

Kraków (287,000 m2). Also in Wrocław and Tricity a high

level of activity among developers is observed. In the

capital of Lower Silesia, 165,000 m2 is currently being built

and in Tricity agglomeration almost 122,000 m2 of new

offices.

> We expect that due to the large amount of planned supply,

the vacancy rate for the main markets in Poland will grow,

and this trend will continue in subsequent quarters. We will

continue to observe a decline in average rental rates, both

basic and effective, especially in markets with high

construction activity.

> Among tenants we are observing a change in how working space is created. More and more companies are interested

in carrying out a comprehensive analysis of staff needs

and developing a suitable strategy for the changes.

15.4%

6.0%

10.2%

13.5% 13.3%14.3%

9.7%

17.7%

7.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Page 8: Poland MARKET INSIGHTS - Colliers International · 3 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International Economy General overview > In Q2 2016, a decrease in GDP

8 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International

Industrial

General overview

> The Polish industrial market is thriving and still showing an upturn trend. Supply and demand remain at a stable

high level. In H1 2016, the supply of industrial space

stood at almost 660,000 m2 and as a result the total

stock in Poland exceeded 10.4 million m2.

> During the past six months, 254 agreements were

signed, which covered over 1,4 million m2 of leased

space.

> In comparison to corresponding period of the previous year, activity among developers increased. The level of

supply was 35% higher than in H1 2015 (489,000 m2).

Total supply and vacancy rates in major markets

*Lublin, Rzeszów and the surrounding area

Source: Colliers International

> At the end of June 2016, the short-term transaction volume (not included in aggregated statistics) amounted

to 96,000 m2.

> In the analysed period, the vacancy rate for A-class industrial space stood at 5.3% and was 0.7 p.p. higher

than the rate recorded at the end of December 2016

(4.6%).

Supply

> In H1 2016, developers were most active in the Warsaw

market (Zone II). 144,000 m2 of modern industrial space

was delivered to this market, which constituted 22% of

total industrial space delivered to the Polish market.

> High activity among developers was also observed in the Poznań market (122,000 m2) and in Central Poland

(115,000 m2). The remaining regional markets did not

experience such large increases in new industrial space

(up to 86,000 m2 in the Silesia market).

> The largest industrial investments completed in the last two quarters include: four projects delivered by Panattoni

– i.e. in Stryków (60,000 m2), Poznań (31,400 m2),

Pruszków (30,700 m2) and Łódź (30,100 m2);

a warehouse built within Centrum Logistyczno-

Inwestycyjne in Poznań (31,400 m2); a BTS-type building

(29,500 m2) within the logistic park Hillwood Wrocław 3.

Demand

> In the period under analysis, an 8% growth in supply was

observed (1.3 million m2 in H1 2015) in relation to the

same period in the previous year. The transaction volume

at the end of June 2016 exceeded 1.4 million m2 of

leased industrial space within 254 signed agreements.

Demand in major markets in H1 2016

*Lublin, Rzeszów and the surrounding area

Source: Colliers International

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

1,500,000

1,750,000

2,000,000

2,250,000

Supply Vacancy rate

m2

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000m2

Page 9: Poland MARKET INSIGHTS - Colliers International · 3 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International Economy General overview > In Q2 2016, a decrease in GDP

9 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International

> The largest amount of space was leased in the Warsaw

market, where signed deals constituted 373,000 m2, 76%

of which was in Zone II (282,000 m2). Other markets

also show a high level of demand, such as Silesia,

Wrocław, Central Poland and Poznań – over 190,000 m2

was leased in each of these regions.

> In H1 2016, new deals constituted 59% of the demand

structure (including BTS-type transactions, which made

up 15%) against renegotiations which had a share

of 38%.

> Tenants representing the 3PL sector were most active

(15% of all transactions) during the period from January

to June 2016.

Selected lease transactions in H1 2016

Tenant Project Area (m2) Type of deal

Kaufland Panattoni BTS

Bydgoszcz 45 600 BTS

Agata Meble Prologis Park

Piotrków II 42 900 BTS

Raben Panattoni Park

Grodzisk III 42 500 New deal

Carrefour Panattoni BTS

Bydgoszcz II 38 200 BTS

Trioline Panattoni Park

Poznań V 32 300 New deal

Euro Net Panattoni Park

Pruszków 23 000 BTS

DHL Prologis Park

Chorzów 17 800 Expansion

Orange TP SA

Segro Logistics

Park Warsaw,

Pruszków

17 300 Renegotiation

Archidoc Prologis Park

Chorzów 16 700 Renegotiation

InPost P3 Piotrków 15 300 BTS

Source: Colliers International

Vacant space

> At the end of June 2016, there was 563,000 m2 of

unleased industrial space in the analysed markets.

The vacancy rate stood at 5.3%.

> The Warsaw market saw the greatest amount of non-

occupied industrial space – the average vacancy rate

stood at 8.4%.

> The lowest indicator was recorded in Szczecin, Toruń and Bydgoszcz. However, at the end of H1 2016 in

Kraków all the existing industrial space was leased.

Forecast

> At the end of Q2 2016, 856,00 m2 of industrial space was

under construction in Poland, approximately 60% of

which is already occupied.

> Easy access to skilled and qualified employees and the proximity of academic centres are increasingly decisive

factors during the process of choosing a location for

production companies.

> We expect smaller industrial markets to keep gaining in

attractiveness and improving their position on the Polish

logistics map.

> The demand for warehouse & industrial space is

anticipated to maintain its high level in the coming

quarters.

> We are observing a stabilisation of rents. However, in the

markets characterised by the lowest vacancy rates lease

costs are likely to grow.

Effective rental rates (EUR/m2/month)

Region Min. (EUR/m²) Max. (EUR/m²)

Warsaw zone I 3.50 4.80

Warsaw zone II 1.90 2.90

Warsaw zone III 1.90 2.70

Central Poland 1.90 2.90

Poznań 2.10 2.70

Upper Silesia 2.00 2.70

Kraków 2.80 4.50

Wrocław 1.90 3.20

Tricity 2.20 2.90

Toruń/Bydgoszcz 2.20 2.80

Szczecin 2.40 3.50

Lublin 2.40 2.90

Rzeszów 2.50 3.20

Source: Colliers International

Page 10: Poland MARKET INSIGHTS - Colliers International · 3 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International Economy General overview > In Q2 2016, a decrease in GDP

10 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International

Retail

General overview

> In the first half of 2016, there were only approximately

83,000 m² of retail space delivered to the market in

Poland, 70% of it was completed in the second quarter

of the year. In the January-June period 8 objects were

completed, including five extensions (40,000 m² GLA).

Total stock of modern retail space at the end of June 2016

reached about 10,9 millions m².

Evolution of retail stock in Poland 2000 – 2016 (Q2)

Source: Colliers International

> At the end of Q2 2016 almost 620,000 m² of shopping

centres space was under construction with planned

opening date estimated for the end of 2018, approximately

46% of it will be completed in the July-December 2016

period.

> It is worth to pay attention for the developers‘ increased

interest in the Warsaw Agglomeration market, where

approximately 250,000 m² GLA is under construction or

at the advanced stage of preparations and other projects

are waiting for the implementation.

> Average vacancy rate for the 18 biggest Polish cities is at the low level of 3.2%, the lowest vacancy rates are in

Olsztyn and Warsaw while highest are in Radom.

Supply

> Total retail space in Poland approached to 11 million m²

GLA. The largest retail markets remain Warsaw

Agglomeration with 1.5 million m² in 45 schemes and

Katowice Conurbation (44 schemes, 1.1 million m² GLA)

> The retail space density ratio reached the European average level and at the end of June 2016 it amounted

284 m²/1,000 inhabitants. In the group of the biggest

aglomerations the highest density is in Wrocław

(821 m² /1,000) but leaders on a national scale remain

Zgorzelec (1,665 m² /1,000), Opole (1,361 m² /1,000)

and Rzeszów (1,259 m² /1,000).

> Three new retail schemes were completed in H1 2016 –

Galeria Glogovia (21,000 m²), Karuzela Września

(15,000 m²) and Galeria Awangarda Bartoszyce

(6,000 m²). Remaining projects are expansions of existing

retail schemes.

> Many retail schemes are expanded and being modernised.

In May 2016, renewed Galeria Morena in Gdańsk was

presented to customers. The facility offers modernised

Carrefour hypermarket, new shops and enlarged already

existing well known polish and international brands units,

playground for children, fitness, cinema as well as

convenient and esthetic food court with outdoor leisure

space. External and internal communication plan including

parking was also rebuilt.

Demand

> In H1 2016 in Poland several new retail chains had their

debuts including first LPP – Tallinder store in Galeria

Bałtycka. In January 2016 first Skechers franchise was

opened in Galeria Mokotów in Warsaw. Manufaktura in

Łódź was chosen by american clothing and equipment

chain – U.S. Polo Assn for its first shop in Poland.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

New projects Extensions Stock

Annual supply (m²) Stock (million m²)

Page 11: Poland MARKET INSIGHTS - Colliers International · 3 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International Economy General overview > In Q2 2016, a decrease in GDP

11 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International

> The biggest leasing transactions in 2016 were announced

in new schemes as well as those under construction or in

advanced stage of preparations. However, significant part

of demand was created as a part of re-commercializations

of already existing schemes with strong retail position on

the market.

> Among lease transactions announced at the begining of

current year worth mentioning are those in Galeria Młociny

in Warsaw (Inditex Group 6,500 m², Cinema 3D 4,000 m²,

Van Graff 3,000 m², Calypso fitness) or in Galeria Libero

in Katowice (Media Markt 2,100 m², Alma 1,900 m², Helios

cinema, Fabryka Formy fitness club).

> Agata in Vivo! Stalowa Wola (6,500 m²), P&C in Poznań

City Centre (4,500 m²), TK Maxx in Promenada in Warsaw

(2,500 tys. m²) and in Manufaktura in Łódź (2,300 m²)

or Helios in Blue City in Warsaw (8 halls) were leased

in already existing schemes.

> Polish retail chains more often decide to expand outside

the country borders – for example in H1 2016 CCC began

its business activity in Serbia while Martes Sport in Czech

Republic.

> We observe new trends in multichannel sales. New Inditex

clothing brand – Uterque entered the Polish market in

e-commerce sector. In the analyzed period of time there

also took place an acquisition of company eobuwie.pl

shares by CCC (74.99%).

Chosen transactions announced in H1 2016

Tenant Sector Leased area

(m²) Scheme

Agata homeware 6,500 Vivo! Stalowa

Wola

Grupa Inditex fashion 6,500 Galeria Młociny

Warszawa

P&C fashion 4,500 Poznań City

Centre

Cinema 3D cinema 4,000 Galeria Młociny

Warszawa

Elite Gym fitness club 3,200 ArtN Warszawa

Van Graaf fashion 3,000 Galeria Młociny

Warszawa

Grupa LPP fashion 2,700 Quick Park

Mysłowice

TK Maxx fashion 2,500 Promenada Warszawa

TK Maxx fashion 2,300 Manufaktura

Łódź

Media Markt electronics 2,100 Libero Katowice

Alma supermarket 2,000 Galeria Młociny

Warszawa

Alma supermarket 1,900 Libero Katowice

Source: Colliers International

Vacancy

> At the end of H1 2016, the average vaccancy rate among

the eight major agglomerations in Poland amounted to 3%

while in big cities (200- 400,000 inhabitants) 4.6%.

> Among major retail markets Warsaw has the lowest

vacancy rate with 1.6%. The most of available space is

noted in Poznań (5.2%).

> Among big cities (200-400,000 inhabitants) Radom has

the most of available space (9.3%) while Lublin has the

fewest (2.1%).

Vacancy rate

Source: Colliers International based on PRRF

Prognosis

> At the end of H1 2016 under construction there was

approximately 620,000 m² of modern retail space, 46%

of which is planned to be delivered in a period

of July-December 2016. This implies that annual supply

may decrease by nearly a half in relation to 2015.

> The largest project under construction is currently Posnania (approximately 100,000 m²) which area stands

up to over ¼ of 2016 supply. Other significant schemes

under construction are: Wroclavia (64,000 m²), Galeria

Północna in Warsaw (64,000 m²) and Forum Gdańsk

(62,000 m²).

> There is expected a boom in shopping centers market in

Warsaw where preparations of Galeria Młociny, Galeria

Wilanów, Jupiter projects or expansions of SC Janki, SC

Ursynów, SC Promenada and SC Targówek are in

progress.

> In June 2016 parliament has received a bill about retail

environment tax which implements two tax rates: 0.8%

from the income totalling PLN 17 to 170 milions per month

and 1.4% for the income over PLN 170 milions.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Page 12: Poland MARKET INSIGHTS - Colliers International · 3 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International Economy General overview > In Q2 2016, a decrease in GDP

12 Research & Forecast Report | H1 2016 | Poland | Colliers International

Wszelkie prawa zastrzeżone © 2015 Colliers International

Informacja zawarte w niniejszym dokumencie zostały pozyskane ze źródeł uważanych za rzetelne. Pomimo dołożenia należytych

starań, nie gwarantujemy precyzyjności tych informacji. W związku z powyższym, zachęcamy czytelników do konsultacji informacji

i treści zawartych w tym raporcie z ich profesjonalnymi doradcami.

554554554554 biura w 66666666 krajach na 6666 kontynentach Stany Zjednoczone: 153153153153

Kanada: 34343434

Ameryka Łacińska: 24242424

Azja Pacyfik: 231231231231

EMEA: 112112112112

2,3 mld 2,3 mld 2,3 mld 2,3 mld €€€€ roczny przychód w 2015

185 mln m185 mln m185 mln m185 mln m2222 powierzchni w zarządzaniu

16 016 016 016 000000000 pracowników

About Colliers International Group Inc.

Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI; TSX: CIG) jest globalną firmą doradczą działającą w obszarze rynku nieruchomości

komercyjnych. Posiada sieć 554 biur w 66 krajach zatrudniającą 16 000 pracowników. Colliers International oferuje pełen zakres usług

podmiotom związanym z rynkiem nieruchomości. Firma doradza najemcom, właścicielom nieruchomości oraz inwestorom na całym świecie.

Oferuje pośrednictwo w zakresie wynajmu i sprzedaży, globalne rozwiązania korporacyjne, obsługę transakcji inwestycyjnych i rynków

kapitałowych, zarządzanie projektami, usługi w zakresie workplace strategy, zarządzanie nieruchomościami oraz majątkiem spółek, wycenę

nieruchomości, a także badania rynku dostosowane do potrzeb klientów oraz doradztwo strategiczne. Colliers International znalazł się w

rankingu Global Outsourcing 100 – liście czołowych firm działających w sektorze outsourcingu. Spółka została wyróżniona już po raz dziesiąty

z rzędu, czyli więcej niż którakolwiek spośród firm doradzających na rynku nieruchomości. Autorem rankingu jest International Association of

Outsourcing Professionals.

Więcej na www.colliers.com.

Colliers International w Polsce działa od 1997 roku i posiada biura w Warszawie, Krakowie, Wrocławiu, Poznaniu, Gdańsku, Katowicach i Łodzi,

w których łącznie zatrudnia ponad 200 specjalistów. Firma została uhonorowana wieloma prestiżowymi nagrodami przyznanymi m.in. w

konkursach: Eurobuild, CIJ Journal, CEE Quality Awards, International Property Awards. Ostatnio otrzymane przez Colliers wyróżnienia to

nagroda Outsourcing Star dla jednej z firm nieruchomościowych najprężniej działających w sektorze outsourcingu oraz Gazele Biznesu

przyznawane najdynamiczniej rozwijającym się firmom w Polsce.

Więcej o nas na www.colliers.pl.

Obserwuj Colliers na:

Copyright © 2016 Colliers International.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to

ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult

their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

554554554554 offices in 66666666 countries on 6666 continents United States: 153153153153

Canada: 34343434

Latin America: 24242424

Asia Pacific: 231231231231

EMEA: 112112112112

2,3 billion 2,3 billion 2,3 billion 2,3 billion €€€€ revenue in 2015

185 185 185 185 million mmillion mmillion mmillion m2222 space under management

16,016,016,016,000000000 employees

About Colliers International Group Inc.

Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI; TSX: CIG) is a global leader in commercial real estate services with 16,000 professionals

operating from 554 offices in 66 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant insider ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full

range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include brokerage, global corporate solutions, investment

sales and capital markets, project management and workplace strategies, property and asset management, consulting, valuation and appraisal

services, and customized research and thought leadership. Colliers International has been ranked among the top 100 outsourcing firms by the

International Association of Outsourcing Professionals’ Global Outsourcing for 10 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services

firm.

More on www.colliers.com.

Colliers International has been active in the Polish market since 1997 and operates through offices in Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Poznań,

Gdańsk, Katowice and Łódź with over 200 employees in total. The company has been often honored for its achievements by industry

organizations such as Eurobuild, CIJ Journal, CEE Quality Awards and the International Property Awards. Colliers’ most recent distinction in

Poland include the “Outsourcing Star”, given in recognition of its status as one of the most active real estate advisors in the outsourcing sector;

and the “Gazele Biznesu” for being one of the most dynamically developing companies in Poland.

More about us on www.colliers.pl.

Follow Colliers on:

CONTACT:

Research and Consultancy Services

Dominika Jędrak

Director

+48 666 819 242

[email protected]

Colliers International

Pl. Piłsudskiego 3

00-078 Warsaw | Poland

+48 22 331 78 00