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MARKETVIEW
Portfolio deals dominated the
Polish investment market
Poland Investment, Q4 2017
*Arrows indicate change from the corresponding quarter in the previous year
Figure 1: Investment market in Poland – breakdown by type of property (in EUR million)
Source: CBRE Research, 2017
Q4 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE sp. z o.o. | 1
SUMMARY
• The last quarter of 2017 was the most active quarter since the end of 2015 with total volume amounting
to more than EUR 2.5 bn. Investment activity in the whole year exceeded EUR 5.00 bn., equating to the
highest volume since the peak in 2006.
• Investor activity focused mainly on the retail and office sectors which amounted to EUR 2.15 bn. and
EUR 1.55 bn., respectively.
• Industrial & logistics was dominated by one single pan-European portfolio transaction, which accounted
for 81% of total volume in the sector.
• New record volume was registered in the hotel sector, with total activity higher than EUR 0.35 bn.
• Investor interest was also directed towards alternative investment–new single PRS deals were recorded on
the market.
• Prime yields are on a continuous compression path in all sectors of the commercial real estate market in
Poland.
• Almost 55% of total volume was traded in portfolio transactions representing the greatest share in the
history of the Polish investment market.
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Office Industrial Retail Other Number of transactions
5.15%EUR 5 billion 5.20% 6.00%
MARKETVIEW
Q4 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE sp. z o.o. | 2
POLAND INVESTMENT
ECONOMIC BACKGROUND
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Germany France UK USA Poland
Figure 3: Ten-year government bond yields (2012 – 2021)
Source: Oxford Economics, 2017
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
UK
Italy
France
EU 28
Eurozone
Germany
Spain
Czech Republic
Poland
Romania
GDP growth (y-o-y)
Figure 2: GDP growth in selected countries
(Q3 2017, y-o-y)
Source: Eurostat, Q3 2017
MARKETVIEW
Q4 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE sp. z o.o. | 3
POLAND INVESTMENT
INVESTMENT MARKET SUMMARY
20%
18%
15%
11%
9%
8%
5%
14%
South Africa Germany China USA
UK Czech Republic Israel Other
Source: CBRE Research, 2017
Figure 4: Origin of investors in 2017 (%)
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Industrial Office Retail Office - Regional Cities
Source: CBRE Research, 2017
Source: CBRE Research, 2017
EUR 0.37 bn.OTHER
Figure 5: Poland prime yields
Figure 6: Property turnover divided by segments in 2017
EUR 0.94 bn.INDUSTRIAL
EUR 1.55 bn.OFFICE
EUR 2.15 bn.RETAIL
19% 31% 43% 7%
MARKETVIEW
Q4 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE sp. z o.o. | 4
POLAND INVESTMENT
RETAIL MARKET
Galeria Sloneczna
INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS
Source: CBRE
MARKETVIEW
Q4 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE sp. z o.o. | 5
POLAND INVESTMENT
OFFICE MARKET
Proximo
Warsaw Spire (B)
Source: CBRE
Source: CBRE
MARKETVIEW
Q4 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE sp. z o.o. | 6
POLAND INVESTMENT
HOTELS & PRS
Sheraton Hotel in Krakow
Source: CBRE
MARKETVIEW
Q4 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE sp. z o.o. | 7
POLAND INVESTMENT
OUTLOOK
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Portfolio deals Single asset deals
Source: CBRE Research, 2017
Figure 9: Share of portfolio deals
23%
77%
Warsaw Regional
Figure 10: Investment market volume in Warsaw and regions
Source: CBRE Research, 2017
Figure 7: Office investment volume in Polish cities
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017
<100 000 100 000 - 400 000 > 400 000
Figure 8: Retail investment by city size
Source: CBRE Research, 2017Source: CBRE Research, 2017
38%
21%
11%
8%
8%
7%
7%
Warsaw
Krakow
Wroclaw
Lodz
Gdansk
Katowice
Other
MARKETVIEW
Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy,
we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness.
This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior
written permission of CBRE.
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