PMU COST & BENEFITS STUDYcaper-usa.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Session-IV-PMU... · 2017. 8. 23. · Curtailment cost benefits (improved network model and analysis) 17 35 Maybe

Confidential & Proprietary | Copyright © 2016

CAPER Meeting, August 7 & 8, 2017

Dino Lelic

PMU COST & BENEFITS

STUDY


Introduction

■ There are many identified potential benefits of synchrophasor

technology

■ Initially, most of the benefits were based on qualitative, anecdotal

evidence without developing specific numerical metrics for those

benefits

■ However, implementation of the infrastructure and tools to realize

these benefits is a work in process today

■ A methodology is needed for quantifying the benefits of synchophasor

technology in a given environment

■ Use that methodology to develop a short, medium and long-term

roadmap for applications deployment

Slide 2

* Source: DOE Smart Grid Investment Grant Program, “Factors Affecting PMU Installation Costs, Oct. 2014


Approaches to Cost-Benefits analysis

Slide 3

Sometime it is a qualitative approach to identify benefits

(*) Source: A. Silverstein, M. Weimar, J. Petersen, “Value proposition for synchrophasor technology…”, NASPI, Oct. 2014

NASPI PMU

technology

benefits

mapping (*)


The “Chasm” in Phasor Activities

Slide 4

■ Between 2009 and 2014, federal grants and matching private investments helped bring

the technology into the mainstream of the electric utility in North America, and motivated

introduction of the technology worldwide

■ Modern, production-grade PMUs have been installed on operational scale

■ Once the infrastructure is in place, many utilities started to look at options for the further

advancement of the technology and to bringing it into control room.

■ Without discount offered through DOE grants, a more critical approach is necessary o

result in quantifiable justification of the investment in the technology

This is the current location in the

industry


Challenges and Main Benefits

Slide 5

■ In many regions the generation mix is changing rapidly, where retirement of

coal and nuclear plants gives a way to renewables such ad wind and solar

power

■ Many of the benefits are difficult to quantify economically as they serve to

mitigate high impact-low probability events such as major power system

outages, or because the particular benefit is a “foundational” benefit or

improvement in operations and planning processes which contribute to more

tangible benefits in market operations or asset management.

■ The tangible benefits of synchrophasor technology applications can be

grouped as follows:

• Reliability and Resiliency – Reduced number of outages and customers affected.

• Planning and Operations - Improvements due to more accurate models.

• Data Analysis - Faster and more accurate event post-event analysis.

• Asset Utilization - Improved monitoring, maintenance, and availability of assets,,

• Markets - Improvement in congestion management and market costs for ancillary

services.

• Environmental and policy benefits – this include increased delivery and use of

renewable generation and decrease in net carbon emissions.


Process of Cost-Benefits Development

Slide 6

■ In developing the detailed roadmap, synchrophasor applications are selected

based on the business drivers and needs

■ Applications in turn require a support of the appropriate infrastructure and the

development of appropriate processes to enable their operational use.

■ Once all three areas are addressed, the applications will be able to address

the drivers and needs and will result in the improved reliability and operational

efficiency.


Process in Preparation of Business Case

Slide 7

■ A typical process in preparation of the

business case, specifically, in addressing

benefits is shown on the left.

■ Once the benefits are quantified, they need to

be prioritizes taking into account

• level of importance to a specific utility (e.g. must-

have, good to have, nice to have)

• Timeline of deployment (near-term, mid-term,

long-term)

• Level of cost/effort (low, medium, high)


Roadmap example – ISO NE

Slide 8

Near-term roadmap activities Mid-term roadmap activities

* Source: Synchrophasor Technology Roadmap for ISO NE, Quanta Technology Report, August 2013


Components of PMU System Cost

In is necessary to take into account costs of deployment of the technology, before

further justification of the investment in the synchrophasor technology acquisition

and installation is done.

Slide 9

* Source: DOE Smart Grid Investment Grant Program, “Factors Affecting PMU Installation Costs, Oct. 2014

Average cost of PMU device compared to

average installed PMU cost

Average overall cost per PMU (Procurement,

installation, commissioning)


Business Case

■ Once benefits and costs are identified, economic parameters such as

benefits-to-costs ratio, Net present value, and payback can be calculated.

Below is shown a simplified example.

Slide 10

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

BENEFIT (Type)

Oscillation Monitoring -$ 500$ 1,000$ 2,000$ 3,000$ 5,000$ 7,000$ 8,000$ 10,000$ 10,000$ 10,000$ 10,000$ 10,000$ 10,000$ 10,000$

Post-event analysis 20$ 200$ 480$ 480$ 480$ 480$ 480$ 480$ 480$ 480$ 480$ 480$ 480$ 480$ 480$

Dynamic Validation -$ -$ 100$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$

System Visibility

Hybrid State Estimation

Value of Lost Load (VoLL) -$ -$ 1,000$ 3,000$ 5,000$ 5,000$ 7,000$ 10,000$ 20,000$ 20,000$ 20,000$ 20,000$ 20,000$ 20,000$ 20,000$

Innovative Synchriophasor Applications benefits

Special Integration Protection Schemes (SIPS) -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 1,000$ 3,000$ 5,000$ 17,000$ 17,000$ 17,000$ 17,000$ 17,000$ 17,000$ 17,000$

Benefits from other applications -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

TOTAL BENEFITS 20$ 700$ 2,580$ 5,680$ 8,680$ 11,680$ 17,680$ 23,680$ 47,680$ 47,680$ 47,680$ 47,680$ 47,680$ 47,680$ 47,680$

COSTS

Short Term

R&D 500$ 500$

Installation 5,000$ 5,000$

Training 100$ 100$

Maintenance

Mid Term

R&D 500$ 500$ 500$

Installation 5,000$ 5,000$ 5,000$

Training 100$ 100$ 100$

Maintenance 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$

Long Term

R&D 500$ 500$ 500$

Installation 3,000$ 2,000$ 2,000$

Training 100$ 100$ 100$

Maintenance

TOTAL COST 7,500$ 5,600$ 5,600$ 5,600$ 5,600$ 5,600$ 3,600$ 2,600$ 2,600$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$ 200$

Total BENEFITS MINUS TOTAL COSTS (7,500)$ (5,580)$ (4,900)$ (3,020)$ 80$ 3,080$ 8,080$ 15,080$ 21,080$ 47,480$ 47,480$ 47,480$ 47,480$ 47,480$ 47,480$ 47,480$

BENEFITS/COSTS RATIO 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.46 1.01 1.55 3.24 6.80 9.11 238.40 238.40 238.40 238.40 238.40 238.40 238.40

Discount Rate: 6.81%

NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV): 151,895$

PAYBACK (Years): 4

Near-Term Mid-Term Long-Term


Benefits of synchrophasor technology: illustrative example for Utilities

in Great Britain

Example: Summary of Estimated Annual Benefits

These estimates include speculative new applications as well as shares of benefits

that accrue from other initiatives but which would leverage synchrophasor deployment.

Description

Total Estimated Benefits

[ £M ] TO has

Benefits Min Max

N-1 curtailment relief (speculative future) 70 150 Yes

Blackout avoidance (annual risk) 20 108 Yes

Enhanced Frequency Control Capability (EFCC) and further development 50 100 No

Curtailment cost benefits (improved network model and analysis) 17 35 Maybe

Electronic Balancing System (EBS) 8 24 No

Avoided grid reinforcement cost 10 15 Yes

Black start 10 15 Yes

Volt-VAR loss of optimization 2 4 Yes

Online generator compliance monitoring 0.5 1 No

Post-event analysis 0.4 0.6 Yes

Total 187.9 452.6


Quanta Technology, LLC

4020 Westchase Blvd., Suite 300 Raleigh, NC 27607 USA

(919) 344-3000 www.quanta-technology.com

Thank You!


Identified Use Cases and Applications – Future State U

se C

ase -

Benefit

Applic

ations


Benefit – Reduce N-1 Curtailment Costs

How VISOR provides benefits How is Benefit Estimated

■ RAS Schemes

Opening lines at risk

Reactance control of lines at

risk

Fast storage to offset

increased post contingency

flows

■ No data available for % of curtailment

costs due to maintain “N-1” vs “N-0” to

avoid thermal overload after contingency

Assume high % of curtailment is N-1 as is

typical elsewhere

■ Assume RAS schemes (esp. fast

storage) will be effective in 20% of cases

– reduce growth in curtailment from

£340M to £1200M by 20%

Benefit is £70M - £150M/ annum

■ Adoption of “Connect and Manage” policy regime and the rapid growth of renewables

and changes in generation landscape will push up the curtailment cost substantially

■ Curtailment costs attributable to wind power were in the order of £340M in 2014

(National Audit Office report)

■ Estimate future curtailment costs of 2 – 4 times as much due to high wind penetration


Benefit – Blackout Avoidance, Containment & Recovery


■ Monitoring and analysis

Phase angle

New fast CA, OSA and VSA on

LSE/HSE (linear/hybrid State

Estimator)

Reduce Errors in state estimation

induce errors In EBS which “roll over” to

additional frequency response and EBS

costs

■ Special Protection Schemes

Selected islanding

Load shedding

Stability enhancement

■ Royal Academy estimates range of VoLL (Value of

Lost Load) for 12 hr outage – typically order of

£5,000/ kw

■ A 5000 MW 12 hr outage has a VoLL that is order of

£300M

■ Estimated once in 10 year event. Global

experience is 10,000 MW and once in 5 years

■ Annual risk is therefore £30M – £120M

■ WAMS technology significantly reduces this risk –

50% or more. Could reduce the outage size

dramatically or eliminate. So benefit is £19.8M - £

27M / annum. If a higher risk# is used and VISOR

is credited with100% mitigation the upper range

could be £108M.

■ Risk of blackout is increasing as grid is operating more often in full

capacity – evidenced by the increase of curtailment needs


Benefit – Reduced Curtailment Costs


■ VISOR will enable development of

more accurate network models

■ Models are essential to state

estimation and contingency

analysis as well as re-dispatch

algorithms.

■ Improved models will enable more

precise re-dispatch

■ Estimate 3-5% improvement in

model data

■ 5% error reduction in model

parameters results in 3%- 5%

improvement in curtailment

precision – 5% of £680M –

£1400M or £17M – £35 M /

annum

■ Curtailment costs attributable to wind power were in the order of

£340M in 2014 (National Audit Office Report on El. Bal. Services)

■ Estimate future curtailment costs of 2 – 4 times as much due to high

wind penetration


Benefit – Avoided Grid Reinforcement Costs

How VISOR provides

benefits

How is Benefit Estimated

■ Better network models and

understanding of system

performance allow more

precise planning of re-

enforcements.

■ Lower curtailment costs will

allow deferral of

reinforcement

■ Assume VISOR will allow a 5%

reduction in this

■ This is a “one time” benefit – allow

10% of it / annum – or £12.5M /

annum.


Benefit – Reduced Black Start Costs


■ Allows segmentation of smaller viable

islands supplied by smaller (inverter

based) resources

■ Allows re-connection of smaller

islands w/o disruption due to phase

visibility

■ Smaller and inverter based resources

substitute for large conventional units

which are projected to retire but kept

online at high cost

■ Use of smaller resources could

avoid this cost growth due to

payments to conventional

generators

■ Savings of 10% are projected

(w/o quantitative analysis)

■ This is £10M – £15M

■ Black Start service cost is projected to increase from £34.5M in 2015

to as high as £150M in future


Benefit – Automated Volt/Var Control


■ VISOR data and improved /

faster State Estimator

solutions are improved inputs

to real time AC Optimal Power

Flow (OPF) performing

Volt/Var scheduling for loss

optimization

■ Early AC OPF benefits for loss

optimization were simulated and

shown to be order of 5 % of losses,

which is a fraction of a % of total

energy costs.

■ Estimate 0.1-0.2% of £2B /

annum or £2M - £4M savings

■ Transmission losses accounts for 1-2% of system energy transmitted

in GB system


Benefit – Faster/More Accurate Post-Event Analysis


■ Detailed and time-synchronized

coherent data recorded allows faster

analysis w/o uncertainty in sequence

of events

■ Physical causes of relay operations

or non-operations are more visible

thanks to time series of coherent

data, not just SOE data

■ Faster analysis allows faster return of

apparatus to service

■ Reduction in post-event analysis

time from 5 days to 1 day.

■ Hypothetical case where 100 MW

of capacity is restored to service.

(avoided curtailment, example)

■ Value at £50/MWH is

£480,000.

■ This was used as an annual

figure.

■ Post-event analysis takes 5 days or longer using non-synchronized /

non-time-tagged measurement data and may not be able to accurately

determine the sequence of events and cause-effect


Benefit – Enhanced Frequency Control Capability


■ Current EFCC is based on

ROCOF relay

■ VISOR will enable more

sophisticated controls Based on dynamic real time

inertia estimation

Based on locational value of

frequency response

■ VISOR will thus enable better

use of fast controllable

resources such as batteries

■ EFCC CBA provided a benefit figure

of £200M / annum as avoided cost

growth of £200M- £250M / annum for

frequency response.

■ We estimate that VISOR will

contribute order of 25% to 50% of

this, both as a factor in realizing the

original BCA estimate and as

enhancing it.

Benefits will vary with level of deployment of WAMS / PMU technology and

applications


Benefit – EBS Accuracy


■ EBS is a security constrained dispatch

which projects actual physical

generation – load imbalance forward

(including system dynamics) and

dispatches generation to be “where the

imbalance will be” when the generators

follow dispatch 5 and 10 minutes

forward

■ EBS initial conditions are from State

Estimator

■ Errors in state estimation induce errors

In EBS which “roll over” to additional

frequency response and EBS costs

■ Forward balancing costs will

grow to £ 400M - £ 800M

(based on growth experience

elsewhere due to high wind);

this is consistent with NG UK

estimates.

■ Improvement in SE precision of

2-3% should improve EBS

precision accordingly

■ 2-3% of EBS cost growth is

£8M - £24M/ annum


Benefit – On Line Generator Compliance Monitoring


■ Today generators are periodically

taken off line to test governor

response

■ VISOR will allow on-line

estimation of governor response.

(ERCOT has piloted this)

■ Assume generator is off line 2 hours

■ Lost revenues for typical generator if

done annually – £1000.

■ Over 500 units – this is £ 0.5M

■ Comment – need better data which

should be available


Benefit – Future Ancillary Services


■ In Future there may be new

ancillary services developed to

facilitate high renewables

Synthetic inertial and governor

response

Ramping services

Secondary regulation (Automatic

Generation Control)

Fast balancing (1 minute)

■ These are variously under

development elsewhere

■ No detailed analysis was performed

nor is any data available

■ Assumed that new costs for these

new services is in same order as

growth in frequency response

■ Assumed that impact of VISOR

based technologies will be similar


Indirect Source of Benefits –Improved Network Models

■ Sources of Errors in Transmission Line Parameters

• Air Line distance vs actual “as built” distance

• Line sag due to thermal effects (loading, wind speed & direction, ambient

temperature)

• Lack of transposition on shorter lines

• Film build up on insulators (salt air, soot, other pollution)

■ Reported improvement in accuracy via use of synchrophasor to calibrate

models

• 65 mile 500 kV line non-transposed

• Error in R was 50%. Error in X was 3%


These estimates include speculative new applications as well as shares of benefits

that accrue from other initiatives but which would leverage synchrophasor deployment.

Summary of Estimated Annual Benefits in GB

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Post-event analysis

Online generator compliance monitoring

Volt-VAR loss of optimisation

Black start

Avoided grid reinforcement cost

Electronic Balancing System (EBS)

Curtailment cost benefits (improved network model and analysis)

Enhanced Frequency Control Capability (EFCC) and further development

Blackout avoidance (annual risk)

N-1 curtailment relief (speculative future)

Total

0.4

0.5

2

10

10

8

17

50

20

70

187.9

0.6

1

4

15

15

24

35

100

108

150

452.6

Estimated Benefits of Synchrophasor Technology [£M]

Benefits [ £M ] Benefits [ £M ]

Documents

PMU COST & BENEFITS STUDYcaper-usa.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Session-IV-PMU... · 2017. 8. 23. · Curtailment cost benefits (improved network model and analysis) 17 35 Maybe