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7/25/2019 PMP Lecture 6
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AUC TechnologiesConsulting | Development | Mentoring | Training
Project Management With PMP Exam Preparation
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Agenda
Estimate Activity Duration
Estimate Cost
Develop Schedule
Determine Budget
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Estimate Activity Duration
Duration includes the actual amount of time worked on an
activitypluselapsed time
Effort is the number of workdays or work hours required to
complete a task
Effort does not normally equal duration
Est imat ing the number of wo rk per iods that wi l l be needed
to com plete indiv idual sch edule act iv i t ies.
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Estimate Activity Duration
1. Activity list
2. Activity attributes
3. Activity resource
requirements
4. Resource
calendars5. Project scope
statement
6. Enterprise
environmental
factors
7. Organizationalprocess assets
1. Expert Judgment
2. Analogous
Estimation
3. Parametric
Estimation
4. Three Point
Estimates
5. Reserve Analysis
1. Activity Duration
Estimation
2. Project Document
Updates
Input Output
Tools
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Analogous Vs Parametric Estimation
Using the actual duration of a previous similar schedule
activity as the basis for estimating the duration of a future
schedule activity
It uses historical information and expert judgment
Multiplying the quantity of work to be performed be the
productivity rate
Analogous Estimation
Parametric Estimation
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Three-Point Estimates
Instead of providing activity estimates as a discrete number,
such as four weeks, its often helpful to create a three-point
estimate
an estimate that includes an optimistic, most likely, and
pessimistic estimate, such as three weeks for the
optimistic, four weeks for the most likely, and five weeks for
the pessimistic estimate
(Optimistic + Pessimistic +( 4 * Most Likely )) / 6
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Estimate Cost
Project managers must take cost estimates seriously if they
want to complete projects within budget constraints
Its important to know the types of cost estimates, how to
prepare cost estimates, and typical problems associated with IT
cost estimates
Developing an approximat ion o f the costs o f the resou rces
needed to complete pro ject act iv i t ies
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EstimateCost
1. Scope Baseline
2. Project Schedule3. Human Resource Plan
4. Risk Register
5. Enterprise
environment factors
6. Organizational
process assets
1. Expert Judgment
2. Analogous
estimation
3. Parametricestimation
4. Bottom-up
estimation
5. Three Point
Estimate
6. Reserve Analysis7. Cost of quality
8. Project Management
estimating Software
9. Vendor bid analysis
1.Activity cost
estimates
2. Basis of estimates
3. Project document
updated
Input Output
Tools
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Types of Cost Estimates
Rough order
of magnitude
(ROM)
Generally made early in the
project. Developed without
benefit of detailed data and
often based on historical data,
expert judgment, or a costingmodel.
50 percent
Budgetary Often used for appropriation
purposes.
10 percent
Definitiveestimate (or
control or
detailed)
Based on detailed informationabout the project work.
Developed by estimating the
cost for each work package in
the WBS.
5 percent
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Estimate Costs Tools and Techniques
Basic tools and techniques for cost estimates:
Analogous or top-down estimates: use the actual cost of a
previous, similar project as the basis for estimating the cost
of the current project
Bottom-up estimates: involve estimating individual work
items or activities and summing them to get a project total
Parametric modeling uses project characteristics in a
mathematical model to estimate project costs
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Develop Schedule
Ultimate goal is to create a realistic project schedule that
provides a basis for monitoring project progress for the time
dimension of the project
Important tools and techniques include Gantt charts, critical path
analysis, and critical chain scheduling, and PERT analysis
Analyzing act iv i ty sequences, du rat ions, resource
requirements , and schedule con straints to c reate the
pro ject schedu le.
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Develop Schedule
1. Activity List
2. Activity Attributes
3. Schedule Network
Diagram
4. Activity Resource
requirements5. Resource calendars
6. Activity Duration
Estimates
7. Project Scope
Statement
8. EnterpriseEnvironmental Factor
9. Organizational
Process Asset
1. Schedule network
analysis
2. Critical Path method
3. Critical chain method4. Resource leveling
5. What-if scenario
analysis
6. Applying leads and
lags
7. Schedulecompression
8. Scheduling tool
1. Project Schedule
2. Schedule baseline
3. Schedule data
4. Project document
updates
Input
Output
Tools
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Critical Path Method (CPM)
CPM is a network diagramming technique used to predict total
project duration
A critical path for a project is the series of activities that
determines the earliest possible timeby which the project
can be completed
The critical path is the longest paththrough the network
diagram and has the least amount of slack or float
Slack or float is the amount of time an activity may be delayed
without delaying a succeeding activity
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Determining the Critical Path
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Standard Diagramming Notation
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Notation & Description
ES Early start. The earliest time an activity can start. The ES of the first
activity in a network diagram is zero. The ES of all other activities is
the latest early finish (EF) of any predecessor activities
EF Early finish. The earliest time an activity can finish. The EF for the
first activity is the same as its duration. For all other activities, EF is
the latest EF of all of an activity's predecessor activities plus itsduration.
LF Late finish. The latest time an activity can finish. The LF for the last
activity is the same as its EF time. The LF for any predecessor
activity is the earliest LS of any of its successor activities.
LS Late start. The latest time an activity can start. The LS for the lastactivity is its EF minus its duration. The LS for any predecessor
activity is its LF minus its duration.
DU Duration. The number of work periods required for completion of an
activity
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Free Float And Total Float
The amount of time an activity can be delayed without
delaying the ES of any activity that immediately follows it is
Known as free float
Total Float is the amount of time an activity can be delayed
From its ES without delaying the project finish date
Free Float
Total Float
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Identify Critical Path
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Critical Path to Shorten a Project Schedule
Two main techniques for shortening schedules are
Shortening durations of critical activities/tasks by adding
more resources or changing their scope
Crashing activities by obtaining the greatest amount of
schedule compression for the least incremental cost
Fast trackingactivities by doing them in parallel or
overlapping them
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Crashing and Fast Tracking
Overlapped
Tasks or fast
tracking
Shortened
duration thru
crashing
Original
schedule
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Critical Chain Scheduling
Critical chain scheduling
a method of scheduling that considers limited resources
when creating a project schedule and includes buffers to
protect the project completion date
Uses the Theory of Constraints (TOC)
Attempts to minimize multitasking when a resource works
on more than one task at a time
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Buffers and Critical Chain
A buffer is additional time to complete a task
Murphys Lawstates that if something can go wrong, it will
Parkinsons Law states that work expands to fill the time allowed
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Buffers and Critical Chain
In traditional estimates, people often add a buffer to each task
and use it if its needed or not
Critical chain scheduling removes buffers from individual tasks
and instead creates
aproject bufferor additional time added before the projects
due date
feeding buffersor additional time added before tasks on the
critical path
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Critical Chain Scheduling Example
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Determine Budget
Determine budge involves allocating the project cost estimate
to individual work items over time
Important goal is to produce a cost baseline
a time-phased budget that project managers use to
measure and monitor cost performance
Aggregat ing the est imated costs of ind iv idual act iv i t ies or
work packages to establ ish a cos t baseline
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Determine Budget
1. Activity cost
estimates
2. Basis of estimates
3. Project Schedule4. Resource Calendars
5. Contracts
6. Organizational
Process Assets
1. Cost aggregation
2. Reserve Analysis
3. Expert Judgment
4. Historical
relationships
5. Funding limit
reconciliation
1.Cost Performance
baseline
2.Project Funding
Requirements
3.Project document
updates
InputOutput
Tools
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Cost Baseline
A cost baseline is a time-phased budget that will monitor and
measure cost performance throughout the project life cycle. It is
developed by adding the estimated costs of project
components by period.
The cost baseline typically includes a budget contingency to
accommodate the risk of incurring unidentifiable, but normally
occurring costs, within the defined scope.
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Cost Assignment Methods
0/100 Percent Rule
50/50 Percent Rule
Percentage Complete Rule
Weighted Milestones
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Questions