PM Cert Pgm 2.5 (S2015) - Change and Risk Management (Day 2 - Handouts) - Rwf

7/26/2019 PM Cert Pgm 2.5 (S2015) - Change and Risk Management (Day 2 - Handouts) - Rwf

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/pm-cert-pgm-25-s2015-change-and-risk-management-day-2-handouts-rwf 1/38

Project ManagementCertifcate Program

Spring 2015PMCP II

Instructor: Ray Frohnhoefer



Dilbert’s Risk Analsis



Risk Components

Risk Components - Uncertainty, Likelihood, or Probability vsConse!uences, Impacts, Costs

Risk or "pportunity#

◦ $epends on the Conse!uences

Risks have negati!e conse!uences and should be avoided

"pportunities have positi!e conse!uences %bene&ts'and shouldbe (elcomed

Risk or Issue#

◦ $epends on the )imin*

+ Risk"pportunity has not et occurred may need preventiveaction %ne*ative' or encoura*ement %positiveopportunity'

+n issue has alrea" occurred %probability . /001' may needcorrective action %ne*ative' or celebration %positiveopportunity'

Universal Risks - may occur in any pro2ect, operation, or systemre*ardless of the type, or*ani3ation, or industry



+ proactive rather than reactiveapproach

Reduces surprises and ne*ative

conse!uences Prepares the pro2ect mana*er to take

advanta*e of opportunities

Provides better control over thefuture

Improves chances of reachin* pro2ectob2ectives

#enefts $%& bot&er tring'



Step 1( C&ange t&e C)lt)re

4uccess leaders react 55 to bad ne(s 6 encoura*e it tosurface 7ernard 8arr: 9hy 4uccessful People Love 7ade(s http:tco;a*+me/sRa %LinkedIn In<uencer'

=U psycholo*y research sho(s >mental contrastin*? or>if-then-else? thinkin* is necessary to self-re*ulate andmeet our *oals %see http:3enaidaloren3ocom'

Calculated risks are acceptable use the data of the risk

assessment frame(ork to *uide you $on@t bet the ranchA

>4ell? the opportunity sideA

http://t.co/JagAme1sRa

http://zenaidalorenzo.com/

http://zenaidalorenzo.com/

http://t.co/JagAme1sRa



Step 2( S&o* +o* ,as it Can#e

Risk +ssessment Frame(ork

4calable, robust, tool (hich can be used to

perform a better risk analysis

"ptimi3e bene&ts



%&at is Risk Management'

>B the art and science of identifyin*, assessin* andrespondin* to pro2ect risk throu*hout the life of apro2ect and in the best interests of its ob2ectives?

Identi&es factors of time, cost, performance, orscope that can ne*atively impact a pro2ect

uanti&es the results

Identi&es strate*ies to minimi3e risks and reco*ni3ethin*s (hich are out of the control of the pro2ectteam



Risk Management is Pro-Acti!e

8iti*ation: early actions are taken to reduce theprobability or impact of a risk %proactive'

Four key strate*ies:o Accept: the team has accepted the risk and decidednot to alter plans %need to repair dama*e'

o A!oi": plans are chan*ed to eliminate a risk %dod*ethe bullet'

o .rans/er: the risk is not eliminated, but theconse!uences of the risk are shifted to a third party%de<ect or &nd a stand-in to take the bullet'

o S&are: the cost of the risk, risk event, or miti*ation isshared



Risk .olerance

Commonly focuses on investments, but isan issue for *eneral risk mana*ement

Do( much risk can you tolerate#o + lot# othin* at stakeo Eery little# 1 *oals and your income depends

on it

◦ Gvery stakeholder andor stakeholder *roupshould have their risk tolerances understood



%&en S&o)l" *e A!oi"Risk' Can@t aHord the losseposure too *reat

"dds are not in your favor or 2ust a >fair bet?

7ene&ts not identi&ed

)oo many alternatives

InsuJcient data to determine

Contin*encymiti*ation strate*y is not in place

$oesn@t support a strate*ic ob2ective



Risk Assessmentrame*ork



Risk Planning InputoContracts, 4"9, Pro2ect CharteroRisk )olerance +ssessmentoRisk Policieso+ssumptions and Limitations, Critical 4uccess Factors

ProcessoRevie( $ocumentationo Intervie( Participantso4tart a Risk Lo*

"utputo Initial Risk Lo* (ith Identi&ed RisksoCustomer GpectationsoRisk 8ana*ement Plan



Risk I"entifcation

InputoCandidate RisksoCustomer Gpectations

ProcessoRevie( $ocumentationoUse )ools:

7rainstormin*$elphi 8ethod

Checklists

>Risk Radar?

"ther

"utputoCompleted List of Candidate Risks





Risk Analsis InputoRisk 8ana*ement PlanoRisk lo* containin* candidate risks and opportunities

Processo+pply tools such as: Probability Impact Ratin* 8atri

$elphi Facilitation )echni!ue 4ee Frohnhoefer, R, Risk +ssessment Frame(ork Implementation

Kuide for a more complete list

"utputo

Completed +ssessment of Probability and Impact for Gach Risko )rendsoUpdated Risk Lo*o8eetin* 8inutesReports



Risk Response Planning Input

oRisk 8ana*ement PlanoRisk 8ana*ement Lo*oCompleted +nalysis $ocuments

Processo$etermine 4trate*y %+void, 4hare, )ransfer, +ccept

Reduce impact or probabilityM'o8iti*ation 4trate*ies 5 Cost-7ene&t +nalysis for

si*ni&cant items

"utputoRevised Lo* 6 +nalysisoRisk Responses



*From “Selecting Appropriate

Risk Response Strategy” by

Crispin ‘Kik’ Piney, PM !"rope

#$$#

)i"e to Selecting aStrateg



Risk Monitoring

InputoRisk Lo*oRisk 8ana*ement PlanoPro2ect $ocumentation %bud*et, status reports,

schedules, etc' ProcessoPeriodic revie(so )rack as part of status reportin*

o8anual or automated revie( of pro2ect metrics "utputoUpdated plans, risk lo*, status reports, etc



Risk ResponseImplementation InputoRisk 8ana*ement PlanoRisk Lo*oRisk 8iti*ation Plans

Processo Implement 8iti*ation Planso+nythin* hi*h in the upper ri*ht corner of *raph

may already be under(ay

"utputoRevised Lo*, Plans



)hink about ho( the ri*or of your processchan*es as the cost of purchases increases:◦ Latte - NO

◦ Dousehold Furniture - NO,000

◦ 789 - NO0,000

◦ Dome - NO00,000

9e revie( costs, conse!uences, contetand choices

Scale t&e rame*orkAccor"ingl



Risk Assessment %orks&op Facilitated meetin*%s' to

◦ Identify risks and opportunities

◦ +naly3e for probability and impact

◦ Prioriti3e

◦ Plan responses 4upportin* )ools

◦ +*enda )emplate

◦ Process "vervie( )emplate

◦ 9orkshop Report )emplate



Inter!ie* %orks&eet Use to collect and assess initial attitudes

to(ard risks and opportunities:◦ 9hat risks and opportunities are there (ithin the

team#

◦ 9hat risks and opportunities are there (ithin thepro2ect#

◦ 9hat are the top risks and opportunities#



RAID og



+ risk breakdo(n structure %R74' or*ani3espotential sources of risk to the pro2ect

Functionin* much like a (ork breakdo(nstructure, an R74 arran*es cate*ories into ahierarchy

)his approach allo(s the pro2ect team tode&ne risk at very detailed levels

Risk #reak"o*n Str)ct)re



#rainstorming

Facilitated meetin* Free <o( of ideas recorded o bad ideas, but facilitator should keep the

*roup on track 8ay re!uire more than one session 4ift throu*h the ideas for viable

re!uirements or solutions

7est ideas move for(ard



#rains*arming3 Re!isite" Focuses on improved thinkin*

Ideas represented in annotated pictureform

Dundreds of solutions can be evaluated!uickly

http:d/2bvhpem/cQacloudfrontnet(p-contentuploadsIdeaPaint-)he-e(-+rt-of-7rains(armin*1G1SO1+-0/pdf#T*a//S00VSVO0/SQQQ

http://d1jbvhpem1c36a.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/IdeaPaint-The-New-Art-of-Brainswarming%E2%84%A2-2013.pdf?_ga=1.180207597.857799402.1398726966










Delp&i .ec&ni4)e

+nonymous poll of eperts 8oderator creates !uestionnaire, sends

out, and collects results +naly3e results statistically and

summari3e 4end out results and analysis (ith

additional !uestions %may branch on

result' Continue until consensus is reached



• Look at thin*s pessimistically and cautiouslyW see (hy ideas(on@t (ork

• 4pots fatal <a(s, (eak points, and prepares contin*encyplans

7lack Dat

• Focus on data and factsW look for *aps in kno(led*e• +naly3e and etrapolate from historical data

9hite Dat

• Positive and optimistic• 4ee bene&ts and value of decision, and the opportunitiescreated

=ello( Dat

• Creative solutions• Free(heelin* thinkin*

Kreen Dat

• Process control or meetin* chair• $irect (earin* of hats %e* Kreen Dat (hen ideas run dry,7lack Dat for contin*ency plannin*'

7lue Dat

• Gmotional thinkin*

• Use intuition and *ut reaction,

Red Dat

Si +ats .&inking



Risk S)r!es an"6)estionnaires

$ata collection instrument $etermine sources and identi&cation of

risks Collect opinion on miti*ation strate*ies 4takeholder involvement 4tatistical si*ni&cance of surveys eed to validate results



Risk Assessment Matri



Decision .ree

Node 1

Don't Automate $0

Node 1a

Low Demand (.5) -$90K

Medium Demand (.3) $40K

Hig Demand (.!) $300K

• "a#e$ into a%%ount &utu'e e(ent$ )* de%i$ion toda*• +a,%u,ate$ e-e%ted (a,ue in %om,e- %a$e$• /n(o,(e$ mutua, e-%,u$i(it*



C&ecklists

Compensates for memory (eakness Gnsures de&nitive completion of tasks

Check a*ainst process compliance andstandards

8inimi3e risks associated (ith error



7Risk Ra"ar8

$atabase of risks Delp to identify, prioriti3e and communicate

risks Can be used to (atch for risk events

!014 a* 2. 3'onoe&e' M5A 6M6 ++6



Monte Carlo Sim)lation

Gvaluates the pro2ect, not the tasks Used to assess cost and schedule impacts

$one (ith a computer pro*ram Provides probabilities re*ardin* critical path Results in a probability distribution



9se Cases

Captures intended usa*e of the product orpro2ect

$escribes usa*e in customer terms

Include photos, dia*rams, screenshots,story boards, or other >models? for clarity

Gssentially the start of a >user manual? Use cases can be in place before pro2ect

eecution



Control C&arts

Kraphic displays of results over time 8onitors production and other processes Features

◦ Upper and lo(er control limits

◦ 8ean to sho( center of ran*e of acceptablevariations

◦ 4peci&cation limits



Control C&arts :contin)e";



.&ank <o)=

+s a >)hank =ou? for bein* a part of the class, you cando(nload the PPC Kroup, LLC Risk +ssessment ImplementationKuide )emplates and )ools at: http:bitly/yrFuC

)here is a Chan*e and Risk 8ana*ement ui3 %"9' 4tay tuned for more of classA 6+

http://bit.ly/1yrF2uC

http://bit.ly/1yrF2uC

Documents

PM Cert Pgm 2.5 (S2015) - Change and Risk Management (Day 2 - Handouts) - Rwf