Plenary Hoeganas

7/23/2019 Plenary Hoeganas

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Market and Technology Trends in the Global PM IndustryAPMA 31 October, 2011

Per Engdahl, Hgans


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|2 2009-05-07

1. The Global production of Metal Powders

2. Development of the Iron based Metal Powder Market

3. Development of the Automotive Industry

4. Technology trends in the Automotive Industry

5. Global trends in the PM Industry

6. Future development of the PM Industry-Success Factors

7. Conclusions

Content


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1. The Global Production of Metal Powders


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Hgans estimate 2008 Tons

Production of Metal Powders, volume

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Au,Ag,Pt,Pd

Ta

Sn

Mg

HSS+Tool steel(excl HIP)

Ti

WC

Mo

Cr

SS+HSS,WA (excl HIP)

Co

Ni

WC

HSS+Tool steel(HIP)

Pb

Cu

NdFeB

Ferroalloy

Al

Zn

Fe

Appl icat ions

Structural partsSoft and hard magnetsWelding electrodesBearings

ToolsContact materialsRocket fuelBatteriesSurface coatingSuper alloysPigments

Catalysts


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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Mg

Sn

HSS+Tool steel(excl HIP)

SS+HSS,WA (excl HIP)

Cr

Ta

Pb

Ti

Ferroalloy

WZn

Cu

Au,Ag,Pt,Pd

HSS+Tool steel(HIP)

Al

Mo

Ni

Co

WC

Fe

NdFeB

Production of Metal Powders, value

Hgans estimate 2008 MEUR


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2. Development of the Iron Based Metal Powder Market


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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Hgans estimate

Development of the total Global Iron Powder Market


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Global Iron Powder Market

99,91%%

0,09%

Crude iron

Iron powder

The global production of IronPowder represents less than 0,1 % ofthe total production of iron and steel


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76%

24%

PM

Others

Approximately 75 % of all IronPowder is used for PM (pressed ansintered components.

Other applications are weldingelectrodes, hot-bags, oxygenabsorbers, chemical andmetallurgical.

Approximately 70 % of PM is for

automotive applications

Total Iron Powder market

Hgans estimate 2010


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Global Market for PM powders, 2010

32%

20%

48%Americas

Europe

Asia

Asia is the largest market for PM .

There are no fully reliable figures of

the Chinese PM market and theestimate is based on a combinationof many different sources andcalculations.

Hgans estimate 2010


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What drives the Market for PM components?

Automotive ~70 %

1.Vehicle production (no of units)

2. Weight of metal powder based components per vehicleType of vehicle (car, SUV, motorcycle, electrical, hybrid), 0,5 40kg/unit

Engine and vehicle designPM penetration levelBig differences between different regions

Other applications ~30 %(Power Tools, Lawn and Garden, Recreations,

Home Appliances, Furniture, HVAC, Pumps, Motors, Hydraulics, Locks,Arms)GDPTechnology developmentPM penetration level


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Relative development of global Vehicle and Iron Powder sales


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3. Development of the Automotive Industry


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Global Light Vehicle Sales


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0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

x 1000 units

Producti on of CARS & LCV's

WORLDWIDE

Europe N America S America

E Asia Japan Others

Production of cars & LCV in major regions


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0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

24000

28000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

x 1000 units

Prod ucti on of CARS & LCV's

Germany - USA - S Kor ea - Japan - China

Germany USA S Korea Japan China

Production of cars & LCV in the top 5 countries


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The shift of innovation hubs towards Asia Markets is a

logical trend, automotive is just the next industry

Japanese and also Korea companies are well established asglobal automotive companies and will to continue to grow inexport markets

China is the largest producer and also the largest marketsfor vehicles. The market and technology development is,however, still dominated by global automotive companies fromUSA, Europe, Korea and Japan.


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4. Technology trends in the Automotive Industry


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Drivers of change

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Environmental legislation

Emissions: less and cleaner

Recycling

Fuel efficiency

Downsizing - reduced weight

Performance: increased horse-powder/liter (today >100 hp/l)

Increased life

Cost reductions and logistics


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|20 20111017

Environmental outlook, Euro 5-6

0

50

100

150

200

2005 2008 2012 2020

CO2

emissio

n(g/km)

ActualTarget


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This leads to and reinforces

2011-

21 |

Smaller and more efficient engines/less cylinders

Increased share of diesel engines(especially in Europe)

Use of direct gas injection

Increased compression

Use of turbo-chargers

General weight reductionhigher strength materials

Lower wear

surface treatments

Easy recycling

Cost efficient and environmental friendly materials and alloys

JIT deliveries and short development times

Global support and cooperation, but local supply

Standardization of materialsCost reductions

Development of hybrid and EV technologies


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There are many examples of contributions from thePM industry

P/F con-rodsBearing end-capsVVTEGRLight weight pulleys

Stainless steel flangesGasoline pump elementsOil pumps with variable flow

Composite cam shaftsValve seat insertsCommon rail (diesel injection)Gasoline injectionPower steering

Rolled teeth gearsInductors for electrical drives


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5. Global trends in the Global PM Industry


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Why use PM?

Environmentally friendly process Near net-shape in few steps Elimination of scrap

Lowest per unit cost in long series

Broad range of alloy compositions with

unique properties Design freedom

Robust manufacturing process

Close dimensional tolerances

Cost effectivenessPM is to a large extent a cost effectivetechnology


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Raw material ut ilization and energy requirement ofvarious manufacturing processes


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Global trends in the PM industryComponents

Very complex shaped components specifically designed for PM(VVT, Carriers)

Automotive applications dominates but non-automotivesapplications have the same growth rate.

Medium densities are still dominating and growing but the growth

rate of high density components is much higher.Higher strengths

Soft magnetic components for EV and hybrid applications

Big interest and high activi ty level for heavy loaded gears


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|27 111017

Automotive PM Applications, existing & potential

Shock

AbsorbersSynchronizingparts

Cam

lobes

VVT

Con

rods

Turbo

charger

Transmiss ion gears


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Moving the limits example- Gears based on PM

Automotive transmiss ion gears: 70

mil lion cars x average 13 gears

(assumed average 5 speed

transmiss ion) x average weight of 600

g = 500.000 tons

Engine timing gears: 70 million cars

x average 2 gears at 300 g average

weight = 42.000 tons

Other applications, marine, heavy

vehicles, motorcycles, industrial gear

boxes etc. could be another ~ 300.000

tons

The total market size is almost

as big as the existing PM

market

Project target: To make Powder Metal based

gear solutions the first choice for future high-performance load carrying gears.


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Global trends in the PM industryMaterials and processes

Use and development of Integrated powder solutions supplied ascustomer specified press-ready mixes:

Including machinability enhancing additives Including specially designed lubricantsBased on advanced mixing and binding technologies

Use of lower alloying content but improved processing and higherdensities (less Cu and Ni).Higher strength (density, alloy design and processing)

Increased use of Cr alloyed materials

Use of joining technologies(e g brazing) to produce complexshaped parts


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0

5

10

15

20

25

USA Japan Europe China

Content of locally produced PM components per vehicle

Global trends in the PM industryMarket

kg/car


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Global trends in the PM industryMarket

China is today the largest producer of automotives and production ofcomponents will be transferred from other regions. All major automotiveproducers and system suppliers have a strategy to localize production andsourcing. The primary reason is logistics (lead time, capital employed )

In China, there are however, limitations in capacity and especially

competence and know-how to produce high quality PM components , whichlimits the development of production.

Focus on logistics, inventory control and JIT deliveries.

Global partnership but local supply solutions

Increased production in South East Asia and India. Interest for Indonesia.


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6. Future development of the PM Industry-Success Factors


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Time

PropertiesComplexityTolerances

Co-operation suppliers/PMmanufacturers/end users.Industry/Universities. Join forces.

Focus on improved properties andtolerances

Marketing of the PM technology toend-users (training and education)

Quality image

Knowledge about the applicationsand competing technologies

Time to market and right timing

Productivity improvements

Improve knowledge level (education,training and recruitment)

From replacement to innovation

How to develop the PM industry

Success factors


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7. Conclusions


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Conclusions

Powder Metallurgy is a growing market. The development isdriven by continuous introduction of new materials andtechnologies.

Powder Metallurgy has essential advantages compared to

competing technologies high material utilization, designcapabilities, unique material

The development of technology within automotive industry andalso other areas , driven by higher material and energy costs,increases opportunities for Powder Metallurgy technologies.

35 Date


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0

20 000 000

40 000 000

60 000 000

80 000 000

100 000 000

120 000 000

140 000 000

160 000 000

Machining FerrousCastings

Forgings Ferrous Powder

Global competition benchmarking

Tons

(PM)


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We in the Powder Metallurgy Industry must utilize our resources in a

smarter and more efficient way than our competitors to drive ourtechnology forward.

Key words are:

Cooperation in the whole value chain. Join forces!

Technology and development - Innovation.

Properties and tolerances

Quality

Timing

Knowledge

Recruitment and training

What does this means?

Documents

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