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Plant Biotechnology in China: Investment and Impacts. Jikun Huang, Ruifa Hu, Carl Pray, Scott Rozelle, Hans van Meijl, and Frank van Tongeren. Questions. Should China continue to promote biotech and commercialize its GM food, particular the food crops such as rice? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Plant Biotechnology in China: Investment and Impacts
Jikun Huang, Ruifa Hu, Carl Pray, Scott Rozelle, Hans van Meijl, and Frank van Tongeren
Questions
• Should China continue to promote biotech and commercialize its GM food, particular the food crops such as rice?
• How much benefit China can gain from agricultural biotech development?
• How important are trade restrictions on GM products by other countries
Overall goal:
To provide an economy-wide
assessment of plant biotechnology
development in China
Outline of presentation
• Overview of China’s plant biotechnology research investment
• Bt cotton and GM rice: farm level impacts
• Bt cotton and GM rice: economy-wide impacts
• Concluding remarks
Agricultural plant biotechnology research expenditure in China, 1986-2003 ( million yuan in 2003 price )
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Based on CCAP’s survey, 2003
Plant biotechnology researchers, 1986-2003
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1986 1990 1995 2000 2003
Sci enti sts Total
Available GM plants in the public sector in China
• More than 20 GM plants have been approved for environmental release and/or field trials
• Four GM plants have been commercialized since 1997: cotton, tomato, sweet pepper and pertunia
Non-Bt cotton Bt cotton
Source: CAAS
抗虫转基因棉花获大面积推广抗虫转基因棉花获大面积推广
来源: 中国农科院
Bt cotton areas in China, 1996-2003 (thousand hectares)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
中国 More than 5 million farmers adopted Bt cotton in 2003
Case study: Bt vs Non-Bt Samples’ locations (1999-2001)
1999-2001:Samples – 1056 hhs
Hebei: 99- 2001
Jinagsu: 2001
Anhui: 2001
Shangdong:99-200
Henan:2000-2001
Case Study: Bt vs Non-Bt Cotton Inputs levels:
No significant different in:Fertilizer useIrrigationMachineryHarvest cost
Significantly different inPesticide useLabor useSeed price
Numbers of pesticide applications in Bt and non-Bt cotton in Hebei and Shandong in 1999
-- reduced by 13 applications
02468
101214161820
Bt Non-Bt
In 2000: by 12 applications In 2001: by 14 applications
3.23.4
1.9
2.93.1
3.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
(ton
/ha)
1999 2000 2001
Non-Bt Bt
Cotton yield (ton/ha): Bt vs non-Bt cotton
MethodologiesYield Model
(1) Y = f (X) G(Z), Y : yieldX: conventional inputs, farm-specific factors and others G(Z): a damage abatement functionZ: the pesticides and Bt cotton variety
(2) Y = a in Xi
ki [ 1 - exp(- c Z)],
(3) a = a0 + a1 Bt
(4) c = c0 + c1 Bt
Pesticide Use Model• Pesticide use= f (Yield loss, Price, Farm size, Age, Education,
Village leader dummy, Training dummy, Seed dummies, Bt cotton dummy, others)
Major findings on Bt cotton impacts
in 1999-2001 (per hectare)
• Reduce pesticide use: 34 kg 923 yuan
• Increase yield: 9.6% 930 yuan
• Increase seed cost: 570 yuan
• Reduce labor input: 41days 574 yuan
• Increase net income: 1283-1857 yuan (US$
155-225)A net increase of about 30% … this is a HUGE increase in productivity!
Percentage (%) of poisonings reported as numbers of farmers interviewed in Hebei and Shandong in 1999
0
5
10
15
20
25
But Bt cotton is more than productivity-enhancing …
Percentage (%) of poisonings reported as numbers of farmers interviewed in Henan in 2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
GM rice: Pre-production(2001-2003)
123 households, 512 plots
Hubei: 2001-2003
Fujian: 2002-2003
Bt rice: environmental release in 2002
2002 年 5 月 8 日播种, 6 月 1 日插秧,抗虫转基因水稻恢复系株系及其配制的杂交稻组合各18 个;恢复系及杂交稻组合的对照分别为明恢86 及Ⅱ优明 86 ;转基因材料与对照在横竖二个方向间隔种植如国际象棋棋盘,每个方块为正方形,边长为 3m 。
Source: Zhu Zhen
Bt rice
Non-Bt rice
5.609
6.9756.282
8.25
6.226
7.621
6.6347.033
5.8815.863
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
(ton
/ha)
2002 Fuj i an 2003 Fuj i an 2001 Hubei 2002 Hubei 2003 Hubei
Non-GM rice GM rice
Yields of GM and non-GM rice : (ton/ha)
30
5.6
38.5
8.2
15.3
1.7
19.4
3.2
19.7
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
(kg/
ha)
2002 Fujian 2003 Fujian 2001 Hubei 2002 Hubei 2003 Hubei
Non-GM rice GM rice
Pesticide uses (kg/ha) : GM and non-GM
rice
Of those farmers that used GM rice, 62% used ZERO pesticides
Major findings on GM rice impacts (per hectare)
• Reduce pesticide use: 16.9 kg 270 yuan
• Increase yield: 4-8 % 406 yuan
• Increase seed cost: ?? yuan
• Reduce labor input: 8.4 days 168 yuan
• Increase net income: 676-844 yuan (US$
82-102)
Percentage (%) of poisonings reported as numbers of farmers interviewed in Fujian and Hubei in 2002-2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2002 2003
An economy-wide impacts
– Price
– Supply and demand
– Trade
– Economy welfare
Scenarios
– A = [not shown]
– B = Commercialise Bt Cotton +
Commercialise GM rice + trade
patterns not affected by GM
adoption
– C = B + Trade ban on GM rice by Japan, Korea, SE Asia, and EU.
Scenario B: Bt cotton + GM riceImpacts on Welfare (EV, million US$) in 2010
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Bt cotton GM rice Total
Comparing scenarios B and C Rice net export changes (million US$, relative to baseline)
020406080
100120140160180200
B: GM cotton & Rice C: ban
But share of export is only about 1% of production
Comparing Scenarios A, B, and C
Impacts on Welfare (EV, million US$) in 2001
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Bt cotton Bt cotton + GM rice Trade ban
Concluding remarks• China has gained significantly from
commercialising Bt cotton through its direct impact on cotton sector and indirect impact on textile industry
• China could even gain much more from commercialising GM food crops (i.e. GM rice)
• Most of the gains from Chinese biotech are realised independently from foreign trade
Concluding remarks• Should China continue to promote biotech and
commercialize its GM food? – Yes.
The average forgone income of postponing GM rice would be about US$ 2.5 billion per year in 2002-05
• How much benefit China can gain from agricultural biotech development? – US$ 5 billion in 2010
(1 from bt cotton and 4 from GM rice)
• How important are trade restrictions on GM products by other countries?
– Minor. Policy makers should put less weight on the international dimension in making their decisions