Planning & Forecasting

Advanced Organizer

Decision Making

Planning

Organizing

Leading

Controlling

Research

Design

Production

Quality

Marketing

Project Management

Time Management

Ethics

Career

Management Functions Managing Technology Personal Technology

Managing Engineering and Technology

Advanced Organizer

Decision Making

Planning

Organizing

Leading

Controlling

Research

Design

Production

Quality

Marketing

Project Management

Time Management

Ethics

Career

Management Functions Managing Technology Personal Technology

Managing Engineering and Technology

Chapter Objectives

• Explain the importance of planning• Identify missions and vision• Explain the roles of goals and objectives• Identify strategies a planning • Define the different types of forecasting• Define different approaches to forecasts• Solve forecasting problems • Discuss some strategies for managing

technology

Importance of Planning

• Provides method for identifying objectives

• Designs sequence of programs and activities to achieve objectives

Effective Planning

• Plan to plan

• People implementing plan should be involved in preparing plan

Nature of Planning

Deciding in advance what to do, how to do it, when to do it, and who is to do it.

--Amos & Sarchet

1. Recognize Problem / Opportunity

2. Define Goals/Objectives

3. Assemble Relevant Data

4. Identify Feasible Alts

7. Predict Alts’ Outcomes

8. Choose the Best Alt.9. Audit the Results

Overall Mission / Objectives

5. Select the Criterion

6. Construct a Model

Planning/ Decision-Making Process

The Foundation for Planning

• Mission/Vision

• Goals and Objectives

• Strategies

All Customer Driven

Planning:Mission Statement

• First step in planning process• The mission statement answers the following

questions: Who we are? Who are the customers? What we do? and How we do it?

• This statement is usually one paragraph or less in length, is easy to understand, and describes the function of the organization.

Mission – Pal’s

To deliver excellence in food service while providing a menu focused on exceptional quality.

Mission Example

The mission of Southwest Airlines is dedication to the highest quality of Customer Service delivered with a sense of warmth, friendliness, individual pride, and Company Spirit.

http://www.southwest.com 9/9/05

Mission Example

At Microsoft, our mission and value are to help people and businesses throughout the world realize their full potential.

http://www.microsoft.com/about/default.mspx#values

Mission Example

Florida International University is an urban, multi-campus, research university serving South Florida, the state, the nation and the international community. It fulfills its mission by imparting knowledge through excellent teaching, promoting public service, discovering new knowledge, solving problems through research, and fostering creativity.

http://www.fiu.edu/docs/fiumission_statement.htm

Vision

• A vision statement describes in graphic terms where the goal-setters want to position themselves in the future.

• A statement of how someone wants the future to be or believes it will be; it is used to set direction for an organization. --“Information Systems Management in Practice” by B.C. McNurlin

Vision Example

“To Be the World's Preferred Chemical Company” -- Eastman Chemical Company

"A personal computer on every desk, and every computer running Microsoft software." --Microsoft (1980’s)

Vision Example

We will be the preferred provider of safe, reliable, and cost-effective products and services that satisfy the electric-related needs of all customer segments.

-- Florida Power & Light Co.

Top Urban Public Research University.-- Florida International University

Mission/Vision Example

Our Mission• Sustainable Growth: The creation of shareholder and

societal value while we reduce our environmental footprint along the value chains in which we operate.

Our Vision• To be the world's most dynamic science company,

creating sustainable solutions essential to a better, safer, healthier life for people everywhere.

Our Core Values• Safety and Health• Environmental Stewardship• Highest Ethical Behavior• Respect for People

Planning:Goal and Objectives

• Gives purpose and direction

• More detailed goal statement

• How do we go about it?

• To (action verb)

• Consistent with Mission/Vision

Planning:Develop Objectives

• Specific

• Measurable

• Attainable

• Realistic

• Time-limited

Characteristics of Objectives

• Outcome - what is to be accomplished• Time Frame - expected completion date• Measure - metrics for success• Action - how the objective will be met

Goals and Objectives

• Drucker’s Objectives for Organizational Survival– Market Share– Innovation– Productivity– Physical and Financial Resources– Manager Performance and Development– Worker Performance and Attitude– Profitability– Social Responsibility

Management by Objectives

• Commonly Referred to as MBO

• Corollary MBWA(Management by Walking Around)

Management by Objectives (MBO)

Translates broad organizational goals into specific individual objectives.

1. Common understanding of overall organization and group goals.

2. Mutual agreement on the subordinate’s attention and superior’s support.

3. Execution

4. Review and evaluation

Strategic Planning

Strategies:Strategies:• Grand plans to attain longer-range

objectivesStrategic Planning:Strategic Planning: • Identify where the organization is• Identify where does it want to be in the

future• Define a strategy to get there

Strategic Planning

Vision/Mission

Goals

Objectives

Strategies

SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis

Strategic Planning

Mission

Goal 1 Goal 2 Goal 3

Objective 1 Objective 2

Strategy 1

Strategy 2

Strategic Planning

• Suggests ways (strategies) to identify and to move toward desired future states

• Consists of the process of developing and implementing plans to reach goals and objectives

• Not a business plan• Not an operational plan

Strategic Planning

Vision/Mission

’

Strategic Issues

SWOT AnalysisGap Analysis

Goals, Objectives

Vision/Mission

Strategic Issues

SWOT AnalysisGap Analysis

Forecasting

Aligned towards meeting customerexpectations and within framework Of organizations philosophy

Ongoing Strategic Planning, Goals

Objectives, Strategies

SWOT Analysis

• Internal– Strengths– Weaknesses

• External– Opportunities– Threats

Some Planning Concepts

Responsibility for planning• Planning is a continuing responsibility of

every manager.• Higher the manger, more time and further into

future.

Planning Premises (assumptions)• The anticipated environment in which plans

are expected to operate, including assumptions and known conditions.

• Contingency plan

Some Planning Concepts

Planning HorizonLogical planning encompasses a future period

of time necessary to fulfill the commitment involved in decisions made today ($ and time). – Commitment principle.

Some Planning Concepts

Policies: Guides for decision making that permit

implementation of upper management objectives, with room for interpretation and discretion by subordinates.

 

Procedure:A prescribed sequence of activities to

accomplish a desired purpose.

Strategic Planning: Forecasting

Vision /Mission

’

Strategic Issues

SWOT AnalysisGap Analysis

Goals , Objectives

Vision /Mission

Strategic Issues

SWOT AnalysisGap Analysis

Forecasting

Aligned towards meeting customer

expectations and within framework Of organization s philosophy

Ongoing Strategic Planning , Goals

Objectives , Strategies

Forecasting

• Essential preliminary to effective planning

• Engineering manager must be concerned with both future markets and future technology

Forecasting

• Sales (Market) Estimates

• Technological Forecasting

Why Forecasting?

• New facility planning

• Production planning

• Work force scheduling

Long Range Forecasts

• Design new products

• Determine capacity for new facility

• Long range supply of materials

Short Range Forecasts

• Amount of inventory for next month• Amount of product to produce next week• How much raw material delivered next

week• Workers schedule next week

Forecasting: Qualitative Methods

Judgment Methods:• Jury of executive opinion• Sales force composite• Users’ expectation• Delphi method

Counting Methods:• Market Testing• Market Survey

Delphi Method

• Delphi coordinator develops objective of forecast• Determine number of participants• Select and contact participants• Develop first questionnaire (opinions & forecasts) and

submit• Coordinator analyzes responses• Develop second questionnaire based on results of first• Analyze responses• Rounds continue until consensus reached or experts’

opinions cease to change

Delphi Method

• Eliminates effects of interactions between members

• Experts do not need to know who other experts are

• Reaches consensus

Forecasting: Quantitative Methods

Time Series Methods• Moving Average• Weighted Moving Average• Exponential Smoothing

Association or Causal Method• Simple Regression• Multiple Regression

Simple Moving Average

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Exponential Smoothing

Advantages:• Simple in concept• Powerful because of its weighting process. Disadvantages:

• Exponential smoothing will lag as the trend increases or decreases over time.

• Exponential smoothing will fail to account for the dynamic changes.

Simple Regression Model

Excel:  FORECAST (X, known_y’s, known_x’s)SLOPE (known_y’s, known_x’s)INTERCEPT (known_y’s, known_x’s)

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http://www2.chass.ncsu.edu/garson/pa765/regress.htmhttp://www.statsoft.com/textbook/stmulreg.htmlhttp://www.minitab.com/resources/whitepapers/burril2.aspx

Multiple Regression Model

Technological Forecasting

Prediction that certain technical development can occur within a specified time period with a given level of resource allocation

• Normative technological forecasting:After a desired future goal is selected, a process is

developed backward, from future to present, to achieve a goal.

• Exploratory technological forecasting:It begins with the present state of technology and

extrapolates into the future assuming some expected rate of technical progress.

Technology S-curve

New Invention Period

Technology ImprovementPeriod

Mature Technology Period

Technology Performance

Parameter

Natural Limits

Strategies for Managing Technology

• Doing new and better things– Invention– Innovation

• Doing things in new and better ways– Quality– Productivity

Entrepreneurship

• Entrepreneurship– A person who organizes and manages a

business undertaking, assuming the risk for the sake of profit.

• Intrapreneurship– Continuing entrepreneurial activities to

create new products and new business.

Managing Technological Changes

• Internet– Marketing (B2C)– Purchasing, Supply Chain Management (B2B)– Design, Manufacturing– Customer Service

• Information Age

Government Regulation

• Environment concerns

• Safety