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Planning for Hawai‘i’s Futur e Second Decade, 2010–2020 Office of the Executive Vice President for Academic Affairs/Provost July 2012

Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

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Page 1: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Planning for Hawai‘i’s FuturegSecond Decade, 2010–2020

Office of the Executive Vice President for Academic Affairs/ProvostJuly 2012

Page 2: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Purpose of Second Decade Project, 2007

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

2007

• To identify the higher education needs• To identify the higher education needs of the State of Hawai‘i in the next d ddecade

• To determine the relative priority ofTo determine the relative priority of state higher education needs by region of the stateregion of the state

EVPAA Jul 2012 2

Page 3: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Second Decade Revisited, 2012UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Second Decade Revisited, 2012

• To check our projections relative to• To check our projections relative to 2010 Census data

• To review our outcomes and measures and revise as neededmeasures and revise as needed

• To measure our progress on performance indicators

EVPAA Jul 2012 3

Page 4: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

A System of CampusesUNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

A System of Campuses

• Geographicallyaccessible entry pointsaccessible entry points

• Flexibility for students to move within a systemmove within a system

• Cohesive response to state needsneeds

• Coordinated leadership for resource acquisition andresource acquisition and allocation

EVPAA Jul 2012 4

Page 5: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

State of Hawai‘i by Geographic Region

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

State of Hawai i by Geographic Region

Kaua‘i

Maui

Wi d d

W i‘

WindwardNorth Shore

Central

West Hawai‘i

East Hawai‘i

Wai‘anae

‘Ewa

CentralO‘ahu

EVPAA Jul 2012 5

East O‘ahu

Page 6: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Planning Context, 2007 AnalysisUNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Planning Context, 2007 Analysis

• Population growth (# & %)Population growth (# & %)• High school graduation rates

P it i• Per capita income• Workforce participation• Educational attainment (<HS, HS, bach)• College going rate (2-yr 4-yr)College going rate (2 yr, 4 yr)• Workforce shortages

EVPAA Jul 2012 6

Page 7: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Relative Need for Postsecondary Ed & T i i 2007 A l i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Training, 2007 AnalysisFactors East Cent ‘Ewa Wai N Sh Win E HI W HI Mau Kau

Pop Growth (#) High Med VeryHigh Low Low Low Med Med High Med

Pop Growth (%) Low Low VeryHigh Low Low Low Med High Med Med

Proj HS Grad (%) Med Med Very High Low Low Med High Med LowProj HS Grad (%) Med Med High High Low Low Med High Med Low

Income Low Med High VeryHigh

VeryHigh Med Very

High Med Med High

Wrkfrc Particip % High High Med High VeryHigh High High Low Low Med

VEd Attain (<HS) Low Med Med High Low Low High VeryHigh High High

Ed Attain (HS) Low Low Med VeryHigh High Med Med Med Med Med

Ed Attain (Bach) Low Low Med VeryHigh High Low Med Med Med MedHigh

Going Rates (2-Yr) High Low Med VeryHigh Med Med Med Very

High High Low

Going Rates (4-Yr) Low Med VeryHigh

VeryHigh

VeryHigh High Low High Very

High High

Skilled Wrkfrc Needs Very Very Very Very Very Very Very Very Very Very

EVPAA Jul 2012 7

Skilled Wrkfrc Needs yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

RELATIVE NEED 31 31 55 59 45 31 43 49 45 39

Page 8: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Relative Need for Postsecondary Ed & T i i 2007 A l i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Training, 2007 Analysis

4 Cluster Analysis

55

59

‘Ewa

Wai‘anae

y

45

45

49

North Shore

Maui

West Hawai‘i

43

45

39Kaua‘i

East Hawai‘i

North Shore

31

31

31

East O‘ahu

Central O‘ahu

Windward

31East O ahu

Low Need Medium Need High Need Very High Need

EVPAA Jul 2012 8

Page 9: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Wai‘anae Education Center

P l iPalamanui

Page 10: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Updated Planning DataUpdated Planning DataState PopulationState Population

Page 11: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Total Population, 2010UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Total Population, 2010Kaua‘i

State of Hawai‘i = 1,360,301Honolulu

67,09158,936

48,519131,896

Maui181,448

180,716

351,692

>200,000175,000–200,000100,000–174,999<100 000

Hawai‘i

154,924

<100,000 78,707106,372

EVPAA Jul 2012 11Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2010

Page 12: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Relative Need forP t d Ed & T i i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE FACTOR #1

Postsecondary Ed & Training

Based on Change in Population (#), 2000–2010

26,683

42,596

Maui

‘Ewa

g p ( ),

18 197

18,205

19,685

East Hawai‘i

West Hawai‘i

East O‘ahu

18,197

6,973

8,628

Central O‘ahu

Kaua‘i

East Hawai i

Statewide:+148,764

6,260

-649

2,186

Windward

North Shore

Wai‘anae

649Windward

Low Need Medium Need High Need Very High Need

EVPAA Jul 2012 12Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2000 and 2010

Page 13: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Relative Need forP t d Ed & T i i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE FACTOR #2

Postsecondary Ed & Training

Change in Population (%), 2000–2010

30.1%

30.7%

West Hawai‘i

‘Ewa

g p (%),

20.6%

20.8%

14 8%Kaua‘i

East Hawai‘i

Maui

14.8%

14.8%

5.9%East O‘ahu

Wai‘anae

Kaua i

-0 5%

3.9%

4.0%

Windward

North Shore

Central O‘ahuStatewide:+12.3%

0.5%Windward

Low Need Medium Need High Need Very High Need

EVPAA Jul 2012 13Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2000 and 2010

Page 14: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Change in Hawai‘i Populationb A G 2000 2010

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

by Age Group, 2000–2010

68 60168,601

22,786

34,537

6,058

17,412 14,174

,

-14,804<15 15 24 25 34 35 44 45 54 55 64 65+<15 15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+

Age Group

EVPAA Jul 2012 14Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2000 and 2010

Page 15: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Projected Change in Population,2010 2020

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

2010–2020

+19.3%+16.8%

+8 9%

+12.7%

+8.9%

+5.3%

State ofH i‘i

Hawai‘iC t

HonoluluC t

Kaua‘iC t

MauiC t

EVPAA Jul 2012 15Source: DBED&T

Hawai‘i County County County County

Page 16: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Projected Population Growth, Age 65+,St t & C t 2010 2020

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

State & County, 2010–2020

+66.1%+57.9%

+66.7%

+44.9%

+36.7%

State ofH i‘i

Hawai‘iC t

HonoluluC t

Kaua‘iC t

MauiC tHawai‘i County County County County

EVPAA Jul 2012 16Source: DBED&T: Population and Economic Projections for the State of Hawai‘i to 2040, March 2012

Page 17: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Projected Hawai‘i High School Graduates,2011 12 Th h 2021 22

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

2011–12 Through 2021–22

13 608 13 482 13 60615,000

13,608 13,406 13,390 13,114 13,005 12,823 13,030 12,686 13,02913,482 13,606

12,000 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%24%24% 24%25%

9,000

3 000

6,00077% 77% 77% 77% 77% 77% 77%

76% 76% 76%75%

0

3,000

2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2022

Public Private

EVPAA Jul 2012 17Source: “Knocking at the College Door, Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity,

1992 to 2022,” March 2008, WICHE.

Page 18: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Relative Need forP t d Ed & T i i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE FACTOR #3

Postsecondary Ed & Training

Projected Hawai‘i Public High School Graduates, 2011–2022

21,057

21,246

Central O‘ahu

East O‘ahu

j g ,

15,489

18,610

11 635East Hawai‘i

Maui

‘Ewa

8,453

11,635

6,588Kaua‘i

Windward

East Hawai i

Statewide:119,658

4 749

5,675

6,156

Wai‘anae

West Hawai‘i

North Shore,

4,749Wai anae

Low Need Medium Need High Need Very High Need

EVPAA Jul 2012 18Source: OEVPAA/P; internal forecast model; Hawai‘i DOE for public school enrollment data.

Page 19: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Updated Planning DatagPer Capita Income &

W kf P ti i tiWorkforce Participation

Page 20: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Hawai‘i’s Per Capita Personal Income as a P t f U S A 1960 2010

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Percent of U.S. Average, 1960–2010

108.1%106.1%

109.4%105.7%

100.7% 99.7% Current

86.5% 84.8%87.5%

84.6%

PCPI AdjustedHI=125%

80.6% 79.8%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

EVPAA Jul 2012 20Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-10 Estimates, 5-Year average.

Historical data: Table S3.

Page 21: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Relative Need forP t d Ed & T i i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE FACTOR #4

Postsecondary Ed & TrainingPer Capita Personal Income, 2010 Inflation Adjusted Dollars

$21,846

$17,717

North Shore

Wai‘anae Statewide:$28,882

p , j

$23,180

$27 817

$27,622

‘Ewa

Kaua‘i

East Hawai‘i

$27,817

$29,927

$28,378

Maui

Central O‘ahu

Ewa

$34 083

$32,497

$30,844

East O‘ahu

Windward

West Hawai‘i

$34,083East O ahu

Low Need Medium Need High Need Very High Need

EVPAA Jul 2012 21Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-10 Estimates, 5-Year estimates.

Page 22: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Relative Need forP t d Ed & T i i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE FACTOR #5

Postsecondary Ed & Training

Workforce Participation, Age 16+

62.5%

60.6%

Wai‘anae

East Hawai‘i

p , g

Statewide:66.8%

64.4%

67 6%

67.0%

Windward

Kaua‘i

East O‘ahu

68.2%

67.6%

67.6%

North Shore

Central O‘ahu

Windward

70 6%

70.3%

70.2%

‘Ewa

West Hawai‘i

Maui

70.6%Ewa

Low Need Medium Need High Need Very High Need

EVPAA Jul 2012 22Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-10 5-Year Estimates

Page 23: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Updated Planning DataUpdated Planning DataEducational AttainmentEducational Attainment

Page 24: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Relative Need forP t d Ed & T i i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE FACTOR #6

Postsecondary Ed & TrainingPopulation Age 18–24 with <HS Diploma

19.1%

14.6%Maui

West Hawai‘i

St t id

p g p

9 9%

11.1%

11.7%

East Hawai‘i

Kaua‘i

Wai‘anaeStatewide:9.0%

9.9%

8.0%

8.2%

Windward

East O‘ahu

East Hawai i

6.8%

7.7%

4 3%North Shore

Central O‘ahu

‘Ewa

4.3%North Shore

Low Need Medium Need High Need Very High Need

EVPAA Jul 2012 24Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-10 5-Year Estimates

Page 25: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Relative Need forP t d Ed & T i i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE FACTOR #7

Postsecondary Ed & TrainingPopulation Age 18–64 with Only a HS Diploma

50.0%

36.6%North Shore

Wai‘anae

p g y p

32 9%

33.1%

34.6%

Kaua‘i

Maui

West Hawai‘i Statewide:29.4%

32.9%

30.5%

31.4%

East Hawai‘i

‘Ewa

Kaua i

29.7%

22 9%

25.9%

East O‘ahu

Central O‘ahu

Windward

22.9%East O ahu

Low Need Medium Need High Need Very High Need

EVPAA Jul 2012 25Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-10 5-Year Estimates

Page 26: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Going Rates of Public and Private High Schools,UH System

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

UH System

70

55

60

65

46.3

45

50

55

UH S t G i R t

35

40UH System Going Rates

Fall 2011 = 38.4%

31.7

25

30

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Fall Semester

EVPAA Jul 2012 26

Note: The UH system going rate is the percentage of Hawai‘i high school graduates entering the University of Hawai‘i without delay upon graduation from high school.

Sources: IRAO (UH); NCES IPEDS (state); NCHEMS (national).

Fall Semester

Page 27: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Going Rates of Public and Private High Schools,UH System and State of Hawai‘i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

UH System and State of Hawai‘i

70

62.7

55

60

65

46.3

45

50

55

UH S t G i R t

Total Hawai‘i Going Rates

35

40UH System Going Rates

Fall 2011 = 38.4%

31.7

25

30

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Fall Semester

EVPAA Jul 2012 27

Fall Semester

Note: The UH system going rate is the percentage of Hawai‘i high school graduates entering the University of Hawai‘i without delay upon graduation from high school.

Sources: IRAO (UH); NCES IPEDS (state); NCHEMS (national).

Page 28: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Going Rates of Public and Private High Schools,UH System State of Hawai‘i and the Nation

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

UH System, State of Hawai‘i, and the Nation

70

National Going Rates62.7

63.3

55

60

65

UH S t G i R t

Total Hawai‘i Going Rates46.3

45

50

55

UH System Going RatesFall 2011 = 38.4%

35

40

31.7

25

30

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Fall Semester

EVPAA Jul 2012 28

Fall Semester

Note: The UH system going rate is the percentage of Hawai‘i high school graduates entering the University of Hawai‘i without delay upon graduation from high school.

Sources: IRAO (UH); NCES IPEDS (state); NCHEMS (national).

Page 29: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Relative Need forP t d Ed & T i i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE FACTOR #9

Postsecondary Ed & TrainingUH 2-Year Going Rates, Fall 2011

15.8%

20.7%Wai‘anae

West Hawai‘i Statewide:25.6%

g ,

20.7%

25 1%

23.2%

Windward

North Shore

East O‘ahu

26.1%

25.1%

29.3%Maui

‘Ewa

Windward

32 2%

32.2%

30.6%

Central O‘ahu

East Hawai‘i

Kaua‘i

32.2%Central O ahu

Low Need Medium Need High Need Very High Need

EVPAA Jul 2012 29Source: UH IRAO

Page 30: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Relative Need forP t d Ed & T i i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE FACTOR #10

Postsecondary Ed & TrainingUH 4-Year Going Rates, Fall 2011

5.9%

7.4%Maui

Wai‘anaeStatewide:12.8%

g ,

9 1%

8.9%

8.0%

Kaua‘i

‘Ewa

North Shore

9.1%

10.3%

10.1%

West Hawai‘i

Windward

Kaua i

17 1%

16.5%

15.0%

East O‘ahu

East Hawai‘i

Central O‘ahu

17.1%East O ahu

Low Need Medium Need High Need Very High Need

EVPAA Jul 2012 30Source: UH IRAO

Page 31: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Average Annual Net Migration of 22 to 64 Y Old b Ed ti L l (2008 10)

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Year Olds by Education Level (2008–10)

2 6632,663

1 5761,761

1,576

886576576

-483

Less than High High School Some College, Associate Bachelor's Graduate or

EVPAA Jul 2012 31

gSchool

gGraduate

g ,No Degree Degree Degree Professional

Degree

Source: NCHEMS / U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Surveys (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Page 32: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Updated Planning DataUpdated Planning DataWorkforce ShortagesWorkforce Shortages

Page 33: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Projected Job Openings, 2008–18UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Projected Job Openings, 2008 18

20,5402,959 Non-UH

(14%)

9,628(47%)

13,100

6,670

,959 (14%)

UH(32%)

Job Openings(Avg Annual 2008–18)

Needing Education Beyond High School

Avg Annual Undergraduate Degrees & Certificates

Awarded(FY07 to FY11)(FY07 to FY11)

EVPAA Jul 2012 33

Note: Average annual UG degrees & certificates include certificates (1yr+, associate, & bachelor’s degrees.Source: Job Openings: Georgetown University Center of Education and Workforce,

Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements through 2018, June 2010Degrees: NCES College Navigator, IPEDS, and IRAO.

Page 34: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Hawai‘i: Emerging OpportunitiesUNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Hawai i: Emerging Opportunities

Enterprise Honolulu Projections:Enterprise Honolulu Projections:• Life Science / Biotechnology

I f ti T h l• Information Technology• Telecommunications• Film & Digital Media• Diversified AgricultureDiversified Agriculture

EVPAA Jul 2012 34Source: Enterprise Honolulu

Page 35: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Hawai‘i’s Demand OccupationsUNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Hawai i s Demand Occupations

Occupation Annual OpeningsBachelor’s degree or higher

Elementary school teachersGeneral / operations managers

330300General / operations managers

Secondary school teachersAccountants / auditorsProperty / real estate / community association

300300170110Property / real estate / community association

managersNetwork systems / data communications analysts

110

90y

Associate degree or higherRegistered Nurses 330

EVPAA Jul 2012 35Note: Annual openings as of 2008Source: Research and Statistics Office, Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, February 2012

Page 36: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Projected Annual Vacancies in Shortage Areas Statewide 2006 17 and Total UH Output 2007 11

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Statewide, 2006–17 and Total UH Output, 2007–11

630Teachers (Elem/Sec)

330 311341 Nurses (RN)

630

370 418 389 349

424

330

252 271310 311

Proj FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Proj FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11Proj FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Proj FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

90

6678 81

Computing (Bach)

40

6657

EVPAA Jul 2012 36Proj FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Page 37: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Summary of Planning FactorsUNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Summary of Planning Factors

• Population growth (# and %)Population growth (# and %)• High school graduates

P it i• Per capita income• Workforce participation• Educational attainment (<HS, HS,

bachelor’s))• College going rate (2-yr, 4-yr)• Workforce shortages• Workforce shortages

EVPAA Jul 2012 37

Page 38: Planning for Hawai‘i’s Future › offices › aa › seconddecade › 2nddecade_color1pg.pdfTraining, 2007 Analysis 4 Cluster Analysis 55 59 ‘Ewa Wai‘anae 45 45 49 North Shore

Relative Need forP t d Ed & T i i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Postsecondary Ed & TrainingFactors East Cent ‘Ewa Wai N Sh Win E HI W HI Mau Kau

Pop Growth (#) High Med VeryHigh Med Low Low High High Very

High Med

Pop Growth (%) Low Low VeryHigh Med Low Low High Very

High High Med

Proj HS Grad (#) Very Very High Low Low Med Med Low High LowProj HS Grad (#) High High High Low Low Med Med Low High Low

Per Capita Income Low Med High VeryHigh

VeryHigh Low Very

High Low Med High

Wrkfrc Particip % High Med Low High Med Med High Low Low Med

VEd Attain (<HS) Med Med Med High Low Med High VeryHigh High High

Ed Attain (HS) Low Low Med VeryHigh High Med Med High High High

Ed Attain (Bach) Low Low Med VeryHigh High Low Med Med Med MedHigh

Going Rates (2-Yr) High Low Med High Med Med Low VeryHigh Low Low

Going Rates (4-Yr) Low Low High VeryHigh High Med Low Med High High

Skilled Wrkfrc Needs Very Very Very Very Very Very Very Very Very Very

EVPAA Jul 2012 38

Skilled Wrkfrc Needs yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

yHigh

RELATIVE NEED 37 31 49 57 39 29 45 47 47 41

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Relative Need forP t d Ed & T i i

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

4 Cluster Analysis4 Cluster Analysis

Postsecondary Ed & Training

‘Ewa

Wai‘anae

4 Cluster Analysis

‘Ewa

Wai‘anae

4 Cluster Analysis2007 Analysis 2012 Analysis

North Shore

Maui

West Hawai‘i

East Hawai‘i

West Hawai‘i

Maui

Kaua‘i

East Hawai‘i

North Shore

North Shore

Kaua‘i

East Hawai i

East O‘ahu

Central O‘ahu

Windward

Windward

Central O‘ahu

East O‘ahu

East O ahu

Low Need Medium Need High Need Very High Need

Windward

Low Need Medium Need High Need Very High Need

EVPAA Jul 2012 39

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Public Higher Education AgendaUNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Public Higher Education Agenda

1 I th d ti l it l f th t tHawai‘i Graduation Initiative1. Increase the educational capital of the state

2 Address underserved regions/populations2. Address underserved regions/populations

3. Expand workforce developmentHawai‘i Innovation Initiative4. Diversify the economy

Renovate to Innovate5. Renew and expand infrastructure

EVPAA Jul 2012 40

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Hawai‘i Graduation Initiative

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Hawai‘i Graduation InitiativeUNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Hawai‘i Graduation InitiativeHawai i Graduation Initiative

“Increase student participation and completion, particularly Native Hawaiians, low-income students,

and those from underserved regions”

“55% of Hawai‘i’s working age adults to

and those from underserved regions”

55% of Hawai i s working age adults tohave a 2- or 4-year degree by 2025.”

“Increase graduates by 25% by 2015”President Greenwood

EVPAA Jul 2012 42

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Hawai‘i Graduation InitiativeUNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Hawai‘i Graduation InitiativeHawai i Graduation Initiative

P 20 GOAL: INCREASE 2 OR 4 YEAR DEGREE ATTAINMENT OF

55.0%

P-20 GOAL: INCREASE 2- OR 4-YEAR DEGREE ATTAINMENT OF WORKING AGE ADULTS (25 TO 64) TO 55% BY 2025

Goal CumulativeDegree Gap:60,791 degree holders

43% 43%42% 43%

42%

46.7%Current Trend

2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

EVPAA Jul 2012 43

2025

Source: NCHEMS & U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year estimates, 2006 to 2010

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UH Degrees & Certificates of A hi t E d

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

UH Degrees & Certificates of Achievement EarnedAchievement EarnedAchievement Earned

GOAL: INCREASE 3 6% PER YEAR

8 988

10,507

GOAL: INCREASE 3–6% PER YEAR

7,996 8,084 8,2918,988

7,835

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Actual GoalEVPAA Jul 2012 44

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UH Degrees & Certificates of A hi t E d

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Increase Student CompletionAchievement Earned

p

EVPAA Jul 2012 45

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Addressing Need Via Distance Ed ti

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Addressing Need ViaDistance EducationEducation

Undergraduate Credits Taken

Distance Education

963,035 953,468 964,746 1,004,9631,078,794 1,104,494 1,108,499

1,000,000

1,200,000

g

14.2% 5 6% 9 7% 9 1% 10.4%

12.1% 13.3%

600,000

800,000

5.6% 9.7% 9.1% 0 %

200 000

400,000

0

200,000

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12Fiscal Year

Non-Distance Ed Distance EdEVPAA Jul 2012 46Source: IRAO Socad, Census

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Addressing Need ViaDistance Education

Number of Technology-Assisted Distance/Distributed

Distance Education

225

185

Number of Technology Assisted Distance/Distributed Learning Classes by Offering Campus

135126 123

174

80

49 4640

69

101

63 61

40

1737

3

46

5

40

6

40

UHM UHH UHWO HAW HON KAP KAU LEE MAU WINUHM UHH UHWO HAW HON KAP KAU LEE MAU WIN

Fall 2008 Fall 2011

EVPAA Jul 2012 47Source: IRAO Socad, Census

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Hawai‘i Graduation Initiative

“To position the UH as one of the world’s foremost indigenous-world s foremost indigenous

serving universities”

Hawai‘i Papa o Ke Ao

EVPAA Jul 2012 48

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UH Degrees & Certificates of A hi t E d

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Degree Attainment ofNative Hawaiians at UHAchievement Earned

GOAL: INCREASE 6–9% PER YEAR

Native Hawaiians at UH

1,609

960 979

1,1921,439

880

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Actual GoalEVPAA Jul 2012 49

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Native Hawaiian Enrollment at UH

% N ti H ii f UH S t E ll t

23.2%

% Native Hawaiians of UH System Enrollment

13.6%

2001 2006 2011

EVPAA Jul 2012 50

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Hawai‘i Graduation InitiativeUNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Hawai‘i Graduation InitiativeHawai i Graduation Initiative

“Increase student participation and completion particularly Native Hawaiianscompletion, particularly Native Hawaiians,

low-income students, and those from underserved regions”

$44m of Institutional Aid Awarded in 2010–11

EVPAA Jul 2012 51

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UH Degrees & Certificates of A hi t E d

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

UH Disbursement of Pell GrantsAchievement Earned

GOAL: INCREASE 5% PER YEAR $mil

14,111

17,262

$75

$90

15,000

18,000$mil

8 6709,766 $49.0

$61.1

11,701$6012,000 Number of recipients

8,670

$22.7$28.4

$30.6$30

$45

6,000

9,000

Total Pell disbursed

$0

$15

0

3,000

EVPAA Jul 2012 52

$002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Recipients Actual Pell Disbursed Actual Recipients Goal Pell Disbursed Goal

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Hawai‘i Graduation InitiativeUNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Increase Student ParticipationHawai i Graduation Initiativep

O fOver 14,000 students from the Classes of 2013, 2014, and 2015 STEPPED UP

EVPAA Jul 2012 53

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UH Degrees & Certificates of A hi t E d

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Going Rates of Hawai‘i High Schoolsto the UH SystemAchievement Earned

GOAL: INCREASE 3% PER YEAR

to the UH System

37.8 39.0 38.0 38.4 42.6

34.7

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Actual GoalEVPAA Jul 2012 54

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Hawai‘i Innovation Initiative

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Hawai‘i Innovation Initiative

“Contribute to the state’s economy and provide a solideconomy and provide a solid

return on investment”

EVPAA Jul 2012 56

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

UH Extramural Fund Supportpp

GOAL: INCREASE 3% PER YEAR

$452$489

$ million

$368$414

$452

$359

$442

$

EVPAA Jul 2012 57

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Actual Goal

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Goal: Build a $Billion+ Research Industry in Hawai‘iResearch Industry in Hawai‘i

• A vibrant economy• High-paying jobsg p y g j• Clean, green

industriesindustries• An entrepreneurial

ltculture• Bring and keep our g p

keiki homeEVPAA Jul 2012 58

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Strengthen Our Areas of Excellenceg

• Astronomy/space sciencessciences

• Ocean, earth sciences

• Health sciencesHealth sciences

59

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Hawai‘i Innovation Initiative

E h E i St thEnhance Emerging Strengths• Clean energy• New agriculture• Cancer research

Build Up New Areas• Advanced informatics and cyberinfrastructure• Health sciences, obesity, diabetes, etc…

EVPAA Jul 2012 60

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

The Plan

• Double our research initiative over next 5–8 years

• Attract more than 50 new world-class i ti tscientists

• Form crucial relationships amongForm crucial relationships among private sector, state, and international partnerspartners

EVPAA Jul 2012 61

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Investment / Return on Investment

• Approximately $10–12 million a year

• The ROI would be thousands of new jobs in the state, new discoveries, new , ,supporting businesses and opportunities

EVPAA Jul 2012 62

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

UH Patents, Disclosures, & LicensesG l I 5 15% P YGoal: Increase 5–15% Per Year

14 13

911 10 9

U.S. Patents Issued18

1517

11

Licenses/Options Signed

6 7 7

3 2

73

11

6

1

7 8 9

FY01 FY06 FY11

Invention Disclosures

FY01 FY06 FY11

33 3426

44 4861

4254

41 42 39

EVPAA Jul 2012 63

26

FY01 FY06 FY11

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Two Initiatives That MustSucceed TogetherSucceed Together

“Address critical workforce shortages and prepare students for effectiveand prepare students for effective

engagement and leadership”

EVPAA Jul 2012 64

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

UH Degrees in STEM Fields

GOAL: INCREASE 3–6% PER YEAR

g

1,963 2,190

1,705 1,733 1,720

1,633

EVPAA Jul 2012 65

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Actual Goal

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Renovate to Innovate

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Renovate to Innovate

Triple Bottom Line• Create Hawai‘i construction jobsCreate Hawai i construction jobs• Improve facilities to compete• Leverage funds to increase RTRF

EVPAA Jul 2012 67

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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Renew and Expand Infrastructurep

Major Construction Projects, 2009 to Present $184.7mCancer Research Center $120.0m

Edmondson Renovation $15.3m

Biomedical Sciences Bldg. Court B renovation $1.5m

Bilger Complex Air Conditioning System Upgrades $5.7m

Institute for Astronomy, R/R HVAC Equipment $2.6m

Biomedical Sciences Building R/R Cage Washing $2 9mBiomedical Sciences Building, R/R Cage Washing $2.9m

CTAHR Renovation $2.9m

Biomedical Sciences Building, R/R HVAC Equipment $5.3m

C-MORE $21 0mC MORE $21.0m

Webster Hall $7.5m

Major Design Projects, 2009 to Present $126.0m

EVPAA Jul 2012 68

College of Pharmacy (UH Hilo) $38.0m

Snyder Renovation $40.5m

Pacific Health Research Center $47.5m

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SummaryUNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE

Summary

• Data reinforce priorities• Data reinforce priorities

• Initiatives on target

• Initiatives reinforce each other

• Need to update & extend performance measures

• 2013–2015 Biennium Budget proposal d t t i iti tineeds to support initiatives

EVPAA Jul 2012 69

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Planning for Hawai‘i’s FuturegSecond Decade, 2010–2020

Office of the Executive Vice President for Academic Affairs/ProvostJuly 2012