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1111P
ISA
OE
CD
Pro
gram
me
for
Inte
rnat
iona
l Stu
dent
Ass
essm
ent
See
ing
lear
ning
out
com
es in
Isr
ael
thro
ugh
the
pris
m o
f glo
bal c
ompa
rison
sA
ndre
as S
chle
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r Seeing learning outcomes in Israel through the prism
of global comparisons
Jerusalem, 13 May 2009
Prof. Andreas SchleicherHead, Indicators and Analysis Division
OECD Directorate for Education
2222P
ISA
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Pro
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See
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rIsrael
in PISA 2006 Compared with the 30 OECD countries,
15-year-olds in Israel… Rank 28th in science and reading, tie 28th in mathematics Perform similarly whether they have an
immigrant background or not Report a positive general and personal value on science Report a higher level of self-concept in science Report a lower level of interest and instrumental motivation in
science but a higher level of future-oriented motivation Report a lower level of engagement with environmental issues Are in schools that vary in their performance more so than on
average in OECD countries, with half of that variation accounted for by social background (often jointly with school factors)
Are in schools with significant ability grouping Perform similarly whether in public or private schools Are in schools that report significant pressure from parents for
high academic standards
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ISA
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Pro
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Inte
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See
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rIsrael
in OECD’s 2008 edition of Education at a Glance Among the 30 OECD countries plus Brazil, Chile,
Estonia, Russia and Slovenia, Israel ranks… 5th in the proportion of adults in skilled jobs 5th in tertiary attainment among young adults (down from 2nd in
older generation) 9th in upper secondary graduation rates 2nd in upper secondary graduation rates in programmes
designed to prepare students for access to universities 16th in tertiary-type A entry rate, 14th in tertiary-type A
graduation rates (but only 13th in annual growth since 2000) 9th in terms of the income benefits of tertiary education for
males, 15th for females 4st in spending on school education relative to GDP, but only
23rd in terms of spending per student (primary through tertiary) 8th in terms of the volume of instruction time (9-14 year-olds) 4th in primary-grade class sizes 29th in salaries for experienced school teachers (US$ PPP)
4444P
ISA
OE
CD
Pro
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me
for
Inte
rnat
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l Stu
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Ass
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See
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out
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rThis session
11.. There is nowhere to hide Why the yardstick for educational success is no
longer improvement by national standards but the best performing systems internationally
2.2. Benchmarking education internationally Where we are – and where we can be
– Where Israel and other countries stand in terms of quality and equity of schooling outcomes
– What the best performing countries show can be achieved
3.3. How we can get there Some policy levers that emerge from
international comparisons .
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ISA
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Pro
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Ass
essm
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Brie
fing
of C
ounc
il
14 N
ovem
ber
2007
There is nowhere to hideThe yardstick for success is no longer improvement by national standards but the best performing education
systems
6666P
ISA
OE
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Pro
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me
for
Inte
rnat
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l Stu
dent
Ass
essm
ent
An
inte
rnat
iona
l gla
nce
on e
duca
tion
And
reas
Sch
leic
her
A world of change in baseline qualifications
Approximated by percentage of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years
%
1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 20043. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.
13
1
1
27
14
14
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
Graduate supply
Cost
per
stu
den
t
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
Finland
Graduate supply
Cost
per
stu
den
t
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
Australia
United States (2000)
Finland
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
Australia
Finland
Israel 5th in university
attainment in the younger generation (but down from 2nd in the older generation)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
Rising higher education qualifications seem generally not to have led to an “inflation” of the labour-market value of qualifications.
In all but three of the 20 countries with available data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40%
22222222P
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rMoving targets
Future supply of high school graduates
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
China EU India US
2003
2010
2015
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0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
China EU India US
2003
2010
2015
Future supply of high school graduates
0
2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
4 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
6 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
8 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
10 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
12 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
14 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
China EU India US
2003
2010
2015
Future supply of college graduates
24242424P
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rHow the demand for skills has changed
Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)
(Levy and Murnane)
Mean t
ask
inp
ut
as
perc
enti
les
of
th
e 1
960 t
ask
dis
trib
uti
on
The dilemma of schools:The skills that are easiest to teach and test are also the ones that are easiest to digitise, automate and outsource
26262626P
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Deciding what to assess...
looking back at what students were expected to have learned
…or…
looking ahead to how well they can extrapolate from what they have
learned and apply their knowledge and skills in novel settings.
For the PISA assessment of the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds, OECD governments chose the latter
27272727P
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rStrengths and weaknesses in math
The real world The mathematical World
A real situation
A model of reality A mathematical model
Mathematical results
Real results
Understanding, structuring and simplifying the situation
Making the problem amenable to mathematical
treatment
Interpreting the mathematical results
Using relevant mathematical tools to solve the problemValidating
the results
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Coverage of world economy 77%81%83%85%86%87%
OECD’s PISA assessment of the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds
29292929P
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sA
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chle
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rAverage performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply
High science performance
Low science performance
… 18 countries perform below this line
I srael
I talyPortugal Greece
Russian Federation
LuxembourgSlovak Republic,Spain,I celand
LatviaCroatia
Sweden
DenmarkFrancePoland
Hungary
AustriaBelgiumIreland
Czech Republic SwitzerlandMacao- ChinaGermanyUnited Kingdom
Korea
J apanAustralia
Slovenia
NetherlandsLiechtenstein
New ZealandChinese Taipei
Hong Kong- China
Finland
CanadaEstonia
United States LithuaniaNorway
445
465
485
505
525
545
565
616
31313131P
ISA
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Pro
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r
France=495
- 35 - 25 - 15 - 5 5 15 25 35
Overall science score
I dentifying scientific issues
Explaining phenomena scientifically
Using scientific evidence
Knowledge about science
Earth and space
Living systems
Physical systems
Strengths and weaknesses of countries in science relative to their overall performance
France
OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World, Figure 2.13
Science competencies
Science knowledge
32323232P
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France=495 Czech Republic=512
- 35 - 25 - 15 - 5 5 15 25 35
Overall science score
I dentifying scientific issues
Explaining phenomena scientifically
Using scientific evidence
Knowledge about science
Earth and space
Living systems
Physical systems
Strengths and weaknesses of countries in science relative to their overall performance
Czech Republic
OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World, Figure 2.13
Scientific competencies
Scientific knowledge
20
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OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World, Figure 2.13
Science competencies
Science knowledge
Strengths and weaknesses of countries in science relative to their overall performance
Israel
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thro
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the
pris
m o
f glo
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ompa
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sA
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rAverage performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable distribution of
learning opportunities
High science performance
Low science performance
I srael
I talyPortugal Greece
Russian Federation
LuxembourgSlovak Republic,Spain,Iceland Latvia
Croatia
Sweden
DenmarkFrancePoland
Hungary
AustriaBelgiumIreland
Czech Republic SwitzerlandMacao- ChinaGermanyUnited Kingdom
Korea
J apanAustralia
Slovenia
NetherlandsLiechtenstein
New ZealandChinese Taipei
Hong Kong- China
Finland
CanadaEstonia
United States LithuaniaNorway
445
465
485
505
525
545
565
616
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the
pris
m o
f glo
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sA
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rDurchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable distribution of
learning opportunities
High science performance
Low science performance
I srael
GreecePortugal I talyRussian Federation
LuxembourgSlovak Republic SpainIcelandLatvia
Croatia
Sweden
DenmarkFrancePoland
Hungary
AustriaBelgiumIreland
Czech Republic Switzerland Macao- China
Germany United Kingdom
Korea
J apanAustralia
SloveniaNetherlands
Liechtenstein
New ZealandChinese Taipei
Hong Kong- China
Finland
CanadaEstonai
United StatesLithuania Norway
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
2122215
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rSchool performance and socio-economic background
GermanyStu
dent
perf
orm
ance
AdvantagePISA Index of socio-economic background
Disadvantage
Schools proportional to size
Student performance and students’ socio-economic background within
schoolsSchool performance and schools’ socio-economic
backgroundStudent performance and students’ socio-economic
background
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rSchool performance and socio-economic
background Israel
Stu
dent
perf
orm
ance
AdvantagePISA Index of socio-economic background
Disadvantage
Schools proportional to size
Student performance and students’ socio-economic background within schools
School performance and schools’ socio-economic background
Student performance and students’ socio-economic background
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rSchool performance and socio-economic background
FinlandStu
dent
perf
orm
ance
AdvantagePISA Index of socio-economic background
Disadvantage
Schools proportional to size
Student performance and students’ socio-economic background within
schoolsSchool performance and schools’ socio-economic
backgroundStudent performance and students’ socio-economic
background
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Ass
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Brie
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of C
ounc
il
14 N
ovem
ber
2007
How to get thereSome policy levers that emerge from
international comparisons
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High ambitions and universal
standards
Rigor, focus and coherence
Great systems attract great teachers and
provide access to best practice and quality
professional development
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rChallenge and support
Weak support
Strong support
Lowchallenge
Highchallenge
Strong performance
Systemic improvement
Poor performance
Improvements idiosyncratic
Conflict
Demoralisation
Poor performance
Stagnation
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Human capital
International Best Practice•Principals who are trained, empowered, accountable and provide instructional leadership
•Attracting, recruiting and providing excellent training for prospective teachers from the top third of the graduate distribution
•Incentives, rules and funding encourage a fair distribution of teaching talent
The past
•Principals who manage ‘a building’, who have little training and preparation and are accountable but not empowered
•Attracting and recruiting teachers from the bottom third of the graduate distribution and offering training which does not relate to real classrooms
•The best teachers are in the most advantaged communities
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Human capital (cont…)
International Best Practice•Expectations of teachers are clear; consistent quality, strong professional ethic and excellent professional development focused on classroom practice
•Teachers and the system expect every child to succeed and intervene preventatively to ensure this
The past
•Seniority and tenure matter more than performance; patchy professional development; wide variation in quality
•Wide achievement gaps, just beginning to narrow but systemic and professional barriers to transformation remain in place
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High ambitions
Access to best practice and quality professional development
Accountability and intervention in
inverse proportion to success
Devolved responsibility,
the school as the centre of action
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PISA score in science
School autonomy, standards-based examinations and science performance
School autonomy in selecting teachers for hire
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Local responsibility and national prescription
National prescription
Schools leading reform
Schools todayThe industrial
model, detailed prescription of
what schools do
Schools tomorrow?
Building capacity
Finland todayEvery school an effective school
Towards system-wide sustainable reform
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Public and private schools
0 20 40 60 80 100
Luxembourg
J apan
I taly
Switzerland
Finland
Denmark
Czech Republic
Sweden
Hungary
Austria
Portugal
United States
Netherlands
Slovak Republic
Korea
I reland
Spain
Canada
Mexico
New Zealand
Germany
OECD
United Kingdom
Government schools
Government dependent private
Government independent private
- 150 - 100 - 50 0 50 100
Observed perf ormance diff erence
Diff erence af ter accounting f or socio-economic background of students and schools
Private schools perform better
Public schools perform better
%Score point difference
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Pooled international dataset, effects of selected school/system factors on science performance after
accounting for all other factors in the model
OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies from Tomorrow’s World, Table 6.1a
Schools practicing ability grouping (gross
and net)
Academically selective schools (gross and net)
but no system-wide effect
School results posted publicly (gross and net)
One additional hour of science learning at
school (gross and net)
One additional hour of out-of-school lessons
(gross and net)
One additional hour of self-study or homework
(gross and net)
School activities to promote science
learning(gross and net)
Schools with greater autonomy (resources)
(gross and net)
Each additional 10% of public funding(gross only)
Schools with more competing schools
(gross only)
School principal’s perception that lack of
qualified teachers hinders instruction
(gross only)
School principal’s positive evaluation of quality of educational
materials(gross only)
Measured effect
Effect after accounting for the socio-economic
background of students, schools and countries
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Creating a knowledge-rich profession in which schools and teachers have the authority to act, the necessary
knowledge to do so wisely, and access to effective support systems
The tradition of education systems
has been “knowledge poor”
The future of education systems is “knowledge
rich”
National prescription
Professional judgement
Informed professional judgement, the teacher
as a “knowledge worker”
Informed prescription
Uninformed professional judgement, teachers working in isolation
Uninformed prescription,
teachers implement curricula
51515151P
ISA
OE
CD
Pro
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for
Inte
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Ass
essm
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See
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Strong ambitions
Access to best practice and quality professional development
Accountability
Devolvedresponsibility,
the school as the centre of action
Integrated educational
opportunities
From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment towards personalised learning
52525252P
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Pro
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Inte
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rDurchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable distribution of
learning opportunities
High science performance
Low science performanceTurkey
AustraliaJ apan
Finland
CanadaNew Zealand
Korea
Czech Republic United KingdomAustria
Germany
Netherlands
SwitzerlandI relandBelgium
PolandSwedenHungary
IcelandFrance Denmark
United States SpainLuxembourg NorwaySlovak Republic
I talyGreecePortugal
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
21222
Early selection and institutional differentiation
High degree of stratification
Low degree of stratification
6
53535353P
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rParadigm shifts
Prescription Informed profession
Uniformity Embracing diversity
Demarcation Collaboration
Provision Outcomes
Bureaucratic – look up Devolved – look outwards
Talk equity Deliver equity
Hit & miss Universal high standards
Received wisdom Data and best practice
The old bureaucratic education system The new enabling education system
54545454P
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rMoney matters - but other things do too
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Spending choices on secondary schoolsContribution of various factors to upper secondary teacher compensation costs
per student as a percentage of GDP per capita (2004)
Percentage points
56565656P
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rWhy care?
Progress Concerns about skill barriers to economic
growth, productivity growth and rates of technological innovation
– One additional year of education equals to between 3 and 6% of GDP
– Rising tertiary level qualifications seem generally not to have led to an “inflation” of the labour-market value of qualifications (in all but three of the 20 countries with available data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40%)
Fairness Concerns about the role of skills in creating
social inequity in economic outcomes– Both average and distribution of skill matter
to long-term growth (high percentages of low skill impede growth)
Value for money Concerns about the demand for, and efficiency
and effectiveness of, investments in public goods
57575757P
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0
10
20
30
40
1989
1994
1999
2004
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
2044
2049
2054
2059
2064
The cost of inactionImproved GDP from achieving the goal of being first in the world by 2000
Note:*K-12 education expenitures are assumed to be constant at the level attained in 2005. These data show that economic benefits from a 1989 reform that raised the U.S. to the highest levels of test performance would cover the cost of K-12 education by 2015
Source:Eric Hanushek
Percent addition to GDP
10-year reform20-year reform30-year reformTotal U.S. K-12 spending
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Thank you !Thank you !
www.oecd.org; www.pisa.oecd.org– All national and international publications– The complete micro-level database
email: [email protected]
…and remember:
Without data, you are just another person with an opinion
