Piggy-back the professional handicappers · Piggy-back the professional handicappers This month, the Statman lets the professionals do the work and then shows us how to exploit their

Piggy-back the professional handicappers This month, the Statman lets the professionals do the work and then shows us how to exploit their extremely thorough research. I am getting a bit frustrated with laying systems, even though they invariably start off as some sort of backing concept that fails to work out over time. This month, I am determined to find something that makes a profit from backing the selections that come out of the statistical mincer. I have even concluded that contrary to popular belief, there are people out there who know more about racing than me. Now don’t worry, I am not going to point you in the direction of Pricewise from The Racing Post, a tipster from one of the daily papers (though The Independent is as good as it gets), or even some dodgy phone number. I am thinking more about making the most of the true professionals – those with almost unlimited resources, a staff of many, computers, software, video replays, personal knowledge and a full time position as well. I am, of course, talking about the professional handicappers. Employed by the BHA (British Horseracing Authority), it is their task (difficult as it may be) to allocate a rating to every horse who has either won a race or attempted to on three or more occasions – and we all know that is where the handicap weights come from in races we love and watch, such as the Grand National, Lincoln, Cesarewitch and so on. In those races, the horses are allocated differing weights to equalise their chances (well, in theory), but what if we use those same ratings in other races – ones where the weights are NOT altered; the non-handicaps (both in the United Kingdom and in Ireland to be exact)? How accurate are the professionals at predicting the winners based on their ratings? As you can imagine, there are a list of types to look at first – maidens (for horses who have yet to win a race), conditions stakes, auction stakes, weight for age, Listed races and even Group races, so let’s break those down to something a little easier to handle and look at them one at a time for our ‘first pass’ at looking for a profitable angle. Group races (One, Two and Three) – blindly backing the top rated on official ratings (OR) for approximately the last ten years:

Group One races only

Races Winners Strike Rate Profit/Loss

Betfair Starting Price

Profit/Loss Starting Price

451 114 25.28% +£85.38 +£20.24 Well why not start with some good news for a change? Blindly backing the top rated horse in all Group One races at any distance on any ground will show you a tasty little profit over the years. So how about Group Two races? Group Two races only Races Winners Strike Rate Profit/Loss



463 115 24.84% +£92.64 +£38.77 More good news – there is even more money to be made from Group Two races. Group Three races only Races Winners Strike Rate Profit/Loss



753 168 22.31% -£18.63 -£96.52 Group Three races do not follow the trend in general, now we need to see if it gets worse as the quality lowers. Do the higher-class horses simply run to form more often (which was always my suspicion)? Listed class only Races Winners Strike Rate Profit/Loss



1327 320 24.11% -£130.94 -£213.28 Everything is going according to plan. As we lower our sights, the quality horses fail to have quite such an impact on the Winners’ Circle. For one last look, how about maidens – there must be money to be made there?

Maidens only

There’s money to be made alright – this time by laying all the top-rated maidens; the profit figure that way would keep me happy for quite some time! Novice races Races Winners Strike Rate Profit/Loss



2737 468 17.10% -£36.29 -£485.42 The lowest figure yet – something for the layers among you? Conditions races Races Winners Strike Rate Profit/Loss



5054 511 18.05% -£248.40 -£1019.92 Last and very much least, another laying concept accidentally discovered which I will add to the others in my conclusions below. BOTTOM LINE The evidence is overwhelming as far as Group One and Group Two top-rated horses is concerned. This time, let’s look at their combined stats: Group One and Two combined Races Winners Strike Rate Profit/Loss



914 229 25% +£178.02 +£59.01 Unusually, I have looked at the above figures and tried to break them down further – firstly by course, then by distance – and even by going, but I cannot beat the figures as they stand. Whatever I do, though, thank goodness they actually show a profit – as I promised last month.

If you back every horse top rated on the official ratings (by the official handicapper) in every Group One or Two race on Betfair, you would have made £178.02 profit – not bad at all in the circumstances and a backing statistic that makes a profit at last! For those looking to make even more money however, we revert back to the old laying system once again (sorry but stats are stats). If you LAY every horse which is top rated on official ratings (often annotated as ‘OR’) in the following race types (clearly annotated in the race title): Group Three; Listed; Maiden; Novice; Conditions; you would have the combined figures of: Races Winners Strike Rate Profit/Loss



9871 1467 14.86% -£434.26 -£1815.14 Not bad at all considering the circumstances and certainly something for everyone to think about when working out their next set of bets if the considered races are included in your calculations.

How To Make An Easy 31% ROI From ‘Last Time Out Winners’

In this month’s article the Statman focuses on the best UK race tracks for backers and for layers. He’s

now come up with some great statistical angles when we marry ‘last time out winners’ with some of these tracks...

As many of you will have probably noticed by now, my methods are not quite as simple or glaringly obvious as others in similar positions.

I like to think of a theory first (refusing to make assumptions about its profitability or not) then go off and see if it works – one way or another. It can be a backing system or a laying one, accidental or

deliberate. Conclusions can only be reached once the results are clear for all to see.

This month is no different, as I woke up this morning with the words of my departed father ringing in my ears – “you never see a good horse at Epsom other than at Derby day”.

Naturally, trying to create a full system out of one sentence is beyond even me, but it did set me thinking...

If we list courses that are not considered top class (and no I will not dare to include the home of the Derby) how will the winners get on next time out -‐ and will there be a difference if they step up to a

better track, or stay on happy hunting grounds of the same class?

The concept is simple enough – I am going to guess in advance that these winners are generally over bet thanks to the “1” next to their name, regardless of their true abilities or steps up in class that make their chances close to impossible. Time will tell if that is accurate or not.

Our focus then is on last time winners. Last time winners can be found by looking at the form

column in a traditional Race Card as follows:

Looking at the form column on the left hand side, note the horses whose form ended with a 1 -‐ in this case: Body and Soul, and Athenian. This signifies that these horses were last time out winners.

Defining which tracks to include could get me in to all sorts of trouble with someone somewhere

(clerks of the course, local fans, trainers, and so on). Being a coward at heart I decided to rely on the official lists (Grades 1-‐4) looking to see if there is any difference between them, and admitting that I am expecting a lower return next time out from those winning at the lower grade tracks.

Rules:

The horse must have won last time out at the level of track as listed below (Grade 4 Tracks).

We start with the race record from the next outing at any race track.

Grade 4 Tracks – Bath, Brighton, Carlisle, Catterick, Chepstow, Ffos Las, Folkestone*, Leicester, Lingfield (A/W (all weather)), Nottingham. Redcar, Southwell (A/W), Southwell (turf), Warwick, Wolverhampton (A/W), and Yarmouth.

*track now closed but figures included to ensure clarity.

Number of qualifiers

Number of Winners

Number of Losers


Profit/Loss Betfair Starting Price

22062 3703 18359 -‐3384.66 -‐822.55 Now straight away we have a sensible and profitable laying route with a return on investment of 3.73% using Betfair SP. If we could get prices somewhere between Betfair SP and “normal” SP (which

is easily possible) then the profits get even larger.

Can we fine tune this even further I wonder?

Yes we can, by looking at whether these horses’ next race is at a Grade 4 track, as listed above.


Number of Winners

Number of Losers



12486 2342 10144 -‐1758.28 -‐473.07

And a return on investment of 3.79% to Betfair SP.

But if they step up a grade… to Grade 3 tracks…


Number of Winners

Number of Losers



4916 804 4112 -‐806.09 -‐237.12

A return on investment of 4.82% to Betfair SP

Grade 2...


Number of Winners

Number of Losers



3733 544 3189 -‐591.36 -‐106.15

A return on investment of 2.84% to Betfair SP

And finally Grade 1...


Number of Winners

Number of Losers



2619 313 2306 -‐429.99 -‐15.10

A return on investment of 0.058% to Betfair SP.

Conclusion -‐ horses stepping up one grade (from 4 to 3) provide the best return on investment historically.

Now, I thought that would tell us all we need to know but thanks to some shock results life isn’t quite that simple because I did spot a few anomalies.

Have a look at the following charts and use them to your hearts’ content – there is more than enough to chew on for both backers and layers here!

If a horse wins at a Grade 4 track as listed above and runs next time out in Ireland we may even have

a very simple and more importantly profitable laying system:


Number of Winners

Number of Losers



71 6 65 -‐30.75 -‐21.82 The figures may not be huge but with just seven bets or so a year this takes precious little work, the

return even at Betfair SP is a whopping 31% Return on Investment and I for one will be considering this for future laying systems.

I haven’t done or even thought about this before but as I am merely reporting from cold hard facts (I call them statistics), I see no reason why we cannot list the best figures we can see for both backers

and layers.

For layers:

Track Number of qualifiers

Number of Winners

Number of Losers



Ascot 440 30 410 -‐187.92 -‐127.62 Chepstow 313 43 270 -‐118.27 -‐100.36 Doncaster 541 59 482 -‐189.06 -‐145.54 Kempton 1299 212 1087 -‐265.32 -‐154.94 Redcar 388 62 326 -‐131.67 -‐114.44 Southwell 2545 556 1989 -‐372.49 -‐161.03 Wolverhampton 3702 676 3026 -‐548.84 -‐137.22 Totals 9228 1638 7590 -‐1813.57 -‐941.15 Laying last time out winners who won at Grade 4 Tracks, at the above race courses on their next run,

produces a return on investment 10.2% to Betfair SP. That’s not to be sniffed at and a lot better than most systems I know.

For backers:

Track Number of qualifiers

Number of Winners

Number of Losers



Ayr 266 48 218 +90.16 +187.94 Bath 515 102 413 -‐14.74 +56.29 Carlisle 169 37 132 +35.63 +58.28 Haydock 402 68 334 +81.32 +185.52 Newmarket 1077 148 929 -‐2.89 +218.28

Pontefract 324 48 276 -‐6.58 +51.45 Totals 2753 451 2002 +182.90 +757.76

Backing last time out winners who won at Grade 4 tracks, and have their next run at the 6

Racecourses listed above produces a return on investment of (to Betfair SP) over 27.5% which is pretty impressive for a backing system. If you limit to Ayr only (less bets and less profit), you can boost that percentage to a massive 71% or thereabouts – food for thought, I am sure you will agree.

Looking for losers – the easy way! In this month’s article, the Statman looks at beaten favourites in order to decipher whether there is a profitable backing or a laying system which can be uncovered, so it’s over to the Statman now...

‘It is a lot easier to find a statistic that suits the layers than it is to find one that we can use as backers – that’s racing for you, I am sorry to say, and goes a long way to explaining why there are no push bikes in the bookmakers’ car parks. They have it all as things stand, and reap most of the profits, but there are ways to go against that if you look deep enough in to the old stats!

This month, I have been looking long and hard at just how important the weight of money – and therefore starting price – is.

I have looked at the starting prices in particular of beaten favourites.

The stats to look at involve beaten favourites (BF) next time out covering all courses, all codes, distances, going, grade and so on, and this is what we get for the last ten years (which, in my case, means 1 January 2003 to now (so, ten and a half years, roughly).

Basic figures to nominal £1 level stakes:

Number of Qualifiers

Number of Winners

Winning percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

69,881 11,627 16.64% -£2,869.79 -£11,744.95

Backing beaten favourites next time out is not a profitable exercise, and probably never will be, but if we dig a little deeper what else can we find?

Taking a rather unique approach next, I decided to look at the race type the beaten favourite ran in last time out. Note that with these next stats, the beaten favourite is not necessarily running in the same race type next time out. (By ‘race type’ I mean All Weather, Turf Flat races, Hurdles, Chases and Bumpers (a.k.a. National Hunt Flat races).

All Weather only, to nominal £1 level stakes:


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

15,471 2,421 15.64% -£1,091.61 -£2,949.57

Flat racing only (NOT All Weather), to nominal £1 level stakes:


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

27,965 4,731 16.92% -£477.28 -£4,006.23

Hurdles only, to nominal £1 level stakes:


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

13,727 2,326 16.94% -£860.52 -£2,671.78

Chases only, to nominal £1 level stakes:


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

10,559 1,809 17.13% -£272.46 -£1,530.69

Bumpers (National Hunt Flat races) only, to nominal £1 level stakes:


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

2,159 340 15.74 -£241.89 -£568.68

The percentage is close, whatever the code.

Can we fine-tune the stats further to increase our profits? Is there any difference between how these well-backed losers do when they step off the All Weather on to the Turf – or are they just as good or bad (depending on your viewpoint), whatever the surface?

Beaten All Weather favourites racing on All Weather again next time out only, to nominal £1 level stakes:


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

10,179 1,764 17.33% -£965.44 -£1,972.00

Beaten All Weather favourites racing on Turf next time out only, to nominal £1 level stakes:


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

5,271 654 12.41% -£120.36 -£970.57

Clearly, the often lower-grade All Weather horses perform at a lower standard when returned to the Turf.

How do beaten favourites off the Turf get on if sent to the All Weather courses?

Beaten Turf favourites racing on All Weather next time out only, to nominal £1 level stakes:


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

4,359 764 17.53% +£124.49 -£509.00

The lower percentage of beaten favourites off the All Weather winning on the Turf is countered by their bigger prices.

To reverse the case (at Betfair SP) though, we still have a four out of five (or better) success rate if we simply lay every beaten favourite next time out regardless, and use a sensible staking plan.

What other angles of attack are there?

The first angle could be to look specifically at handicap and non-handicap races.

Option one – beaten handicap favourites racing in handicaps:


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

37,094 5,328 14.36% -£1,644.92 -£6,131.90

Option two – beaten handicap favourites racing in non-handicaps:


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

4,851 899 18.53% -£192.73 -£875.00

Option three – beaten non-handicap favourites racing in handicaps:


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

6,796 710 10.45% -£734.63 -£1,670.15

Option four – beaten non-handicap favourites racing in non-handicaps


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

18,564 4,315 23.25% -£212.11 -£2,520.75

Non-handicap beaten favourites stepping in to handicaps look interesting, with a nice profit at Betfair SP (if laying) – and a lot less bets to cope with as well!

Another new angle we can look into are the odds themselves.

Option one – beaten favourites sent off as favourites next time out:


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

17,831 5,829 32.69% -£319.73 -£1,229.43

Very interesting statistics in this case.

Money certainly talks here.

An eye-catching 32.69% strike-rate means that surely a sensible staking plan could make this profitable.

Option two – beaten handicap favourites sent off as favourites next time out:


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

10,213 2,816 27.57% -£185.91 -£776.29

Option three – beaten non-handicap favourites sent off as favourite next time out:


Number of Winners

Winning Percentage

Profit/Loss Betfair

Profit/Loss SP

7,157 2,862 39.99% -£114.23 -£410.90

The percentage of winners climbs quite dramatically when the horse is sent off as a favourite next time out as well, although the percentage is still not big enough to ensure a profit.

Conclusions:

Money doesn’t talk as much as I expected it to!

Beaten favourites are not necessarily as good as those who plundered the market in the first place thought they were.

Although there is insufficient fact to suggest any kind of system based purely on the statistics uncovered, it does look pretty logical to look elsewhere for winners when there is a beaten favourite in the field unless he or she is sent off favourite again, in which case be wary.

Those who like to follow staking systems (not my area of expertise) may well be very interested in the high strike-rate revealed in the final set of figures – beaten non handicap favourites sent off favourite again next time out – which must surely be profitable if played correctly; while those who prefer the laying side of the betting coin could do a lot worse than simply laying every horse with ‘BF’ next to its name, as seen by the £2,869.79 loss made to Betfair SP by the backers!

The Statman Presents – These trainers’ debutants will make you money In this month’s article, the Statman has been doing his thing, trawling through the stats to find you profitable betting angles, and he’s outdone himself this month by delivering not just a profitable backing angle, but also a profitable laying angle, all based around the performance of certain trainers’ horses who debut on the racecourse. Before we begin, here’s a quick guide to spotting debutants easily... Below is a screenshot taken from www.racingpost.com:

The form column is the most obvious starting point. If there are no form figures in this column, the horse is a debutant. Alternatively, you can click on the horse’s name. Here, I have clicked on ‘Light Weight’ to get a glimpse into his form (if he has any). The screenshot below is what you will be presented with if the horse has no form:

So, without any further ado, on to the Statman... After a month off to refresh the little grey cells, I am back and raring to go with a new (and very simple) idea that I am hoping comes out with the stats I expect to see (though, as you know by now, I never back fit, and am as surprised as you are by what sometimes comes out in the wash). This month I am looking for a laying and backing idea all in one. I’m relying on this age-old concept. Certain trainers do not have their horses fit at the first time of asking. If that assumption is correct, can we make money laying the first-time-out horses with certain trainers, and/or backing the first time out horses with other trainers. I’m using the old adage K.I.S.S (‘keep it simple, stupid!’). An advantage with this idea is that it covers all codes of racing, from Flat to Jumps and All-Weather races. I have to admit, I did have a pre-conceived idea of exactly which trainers would be where, and in advance my guess would have been David Elsworth, Brian Meehan, Roger Charlton and Marcus Tregoning for the lay side of my equation; with Richard Hannon, Saeed Bin Suroor, Mark Johnston, and perhaps John Gosden to make a profit from backing their first time out horses. We’ll soon see if I am even close to the dartboard let alone the bulls eye! For the sake of accuracy, this is the following criterion under which these stats were produced: 1) Figures are taken from 1 January 2004 to date (2 August 2013), which is ten years plus of data to obtain realistic figures. 2) Trainers with less than 20 runners in that period have been deleted – this is an arbitrary figure made up by myself in an attempt to avoid trainers with fewer runners skewing the figures.

3) The first set of figures will show which trainers do not seem to have their horses finely tuned first time out and will be followed by a simple breakdown by age, to reduce bets for those who like that sort of thing. 4) The second set of figures will be those trainers that are profitable to follow with horses making their debut followed by a simple break down by age, then by course and finally by going. 5) I have not allowed for any commission in any of the profit or loss figures, as we all pay varying rates, holidays etc. 6) Races covered included United Kingdom and Ireland – trainers the same. A) This first table shows the stats as they relate to the following:

All courses, all ages, all going, all trainers, in loss making order (i.e. best value to lay)

Trainer Number of

Runners Number of Winners

Strike Rate Profit/Loss to Betfair SP

M. Tompkins 222 0 0% -£222.00 Alan Berry 182 0 0% -£182.00 Luca Cumani 430 25 5.81% -£172.42 Ed Dunlop 530 31 5.85% -£168.69 Michael Bell 451 27 5.99% -£163.72 Sir Mark Prescott

316 24 7.59% -£130.35

Paul Midgley 162 2 1.23% -£129.75 Clive Brittain 374 21 5.61% -£128.89 Evan Williams 271 21 7.75% -£128.81 Mick Channon 865 72 8.32% -£122.46 Totals 3803 223 5.86% £1,549.09 So, in conclusion, the percentage profit (to £1 stakes) would be a massive 40.73% simply by laying every debutant from the ten trainers listed. Also, and for my own benefit as much as yours, the ones I thought would head the list… Trainer Number of



David Elsworth

253 13 5.14% -£40.20

Brian Meehan 733 44 6.00% -£49.37 Roger Charlton 359 27 7.52% -£49.00 Marcus Tregoning

331 31 9.37% +£110.19

Totals 1,676 115 6.86% -£28.38

So what do I know? Lol – not a lot by the look of it! Although we cannot increase the amount of pure profit from the ‘top ten’, we can look to increase the percentage profit by reducing the number of bets... Let’s start with age... B) Two-year-olds only: Trainer Age Of

Horse Number of Runners

Number of Winners


M Tompkins 2 197 0 0% -£197.00 Alan Berry 2 139 0 0% -£139.00 Luca Cumani 2 197 10 5.08% -£109.13 Ed Dunlop 2 390 24 6.15% -£164.74 Michael Bell 2 37 19 5.64% -£145.72 Sir Mark Prescott

2 240 15 6.25% -£122.95

Paul Midgley 2 126 2 1.59% -£93.75 Clive Brittain

2 289 17 5.88% -£84.49

Evan Williams

2 1 0 0% -£1.00

Mick Channon

2 748 63 8.42% -£88.14

Totals 2,364 150 6.34% -£1,145.92 Not a lot of difference in the profits for a lot less bets (and an increased 48.47% return on investment), so it rather depends on how you like to do your punting – oh, and the size of your betting bank of course! C) Three-year-olds only: Trainer Age Of


Number of Winners


Mark H Tompkins

3 24 0 0% -£24.00

Alan Berry 3 29 0 0% -£29.00 Luca Cumani 3 191 9 4.71% -£91.18 Ed Dunlop 3 126 6 4.76% +£1.95 Michael Bell 3 109 7 6.42% -£17.31 Sir Mark Prescott

3 69 9 13.04% -£0.40

Paul Midgley 3 20 0 0% -£20.00 Clive Brittain

3 81 3 3.7% -£63.15

Evan Williams

3 24 5 20.83% -£5.73

Mick 3 107 7 6.54% -£35.06

Channon Totals 780 46 5.89% £283.88 And a 36.39% return on investment – good, but personally I would be tempted to stick with the 2-year-olds, while there simply aren’t enough 4-year-olds and above to allow them to influence our statistics! Having looked at laying, can we find a profitable backing strategy for certain trainers with horses making their debuts? A) All courses, all ages, all going, all trainers, in profit making order: Trainer Number of



Paul Nolan 157 21 13.38% +£420.87 Declan Carroll 106 3 2.83% +£372.71 George Moore 144 11 7.64% +£296.83 Andrew Balding

519 35 6.74% +£282.67

Richard Fahey 647 87 13.45% +£278.15 Ger Lyons 209 15 7.18% +£267.67 Ralph Becket 427 50 11.71% +£253.06 David Evans 321 23 7.17% +£240.96 Donald Whillans

33 2 6.06% +£239.86

William Amos 52 3 5.77% +£229.01 Totals 2,615 250 9.56% +£2,881.79 Interestingly, I freely admit that I would never have included any of those trainers in a profitable list for backers for first-time-out horses of any age. In fact I thought Andrew Balding would be in the lay list to be honest, and it would appear every other punter feels the same, as the strike rate is low enough to suggest it is the odd long-priced winner that is making all the profit! Whatever the cause, a return of investment of 110.16% is most certainly not to be sniffed at. What happens if we break these stats down by age? B) Two-year-olds only: Trainer Age Number of



Paul Nolan 2 2 0 0% -£2.00 Declan Carroll

2 56 3 5.36% +£422.71

George 2 57 3 5.26% -£6.66

Moore Andrew Balding

2 391 24 6.14% +£273.98

R. Fahey 2 519 75 14.45% +£297.45 Ger Lyons 2 133 10 7.52% +£162.93 Ralph Beckett

2 334 41 12.28% +£190.13

David Evans

2 246 19 7.72% +£219.44

Donald Whillans

2 0 0 0% £0.00

William Amos

2 0 0 0% £0.00

Totals 1,738 175 10.07% £1,557.98 A return of investment of 89.64% isn’t as good as backing them overall, though we can all see that leaving out any juvenile debutant trained by Paul Nolan or George Moore will tweak the figures in our favour. C) Three-year-olds only: Trainer Age Number of



Paul Nolan 3 1 0 0% £0.00 Declan Carroll

3 38 0 0% -£38.00

George Moore

3 27 2 7.41% +£271.38

Andrew Balding

3 118 10 8.47% +£15.58

Richard Fahey

3 90 5 5.56% -£23.56

Ger Lyons 3 61 4 6.56% +£110.68 Ralph Beckett

3 82 8 9.76% +£19.40

David Evans

3 40 1 2.5% -£37.20

Donald Whillans

3 0 0 0% £0.00

William Amos

3 6 1 16.67% +£251.67

Totals 463 31 6.7% +£569.95 Although we can clearly see that the figures can be ‘upped’ by dropping out Declan Carroll with his 3-year-olds as well as Richard Fahey and David Evans, there is still an excellent

return on investment of 123.1%, which is better than I would have expected by a considerable margin. D) Four-year-olds and older: Trainer Age Number of

Runners Number Of Winners


Paul Nolan 4 and above 154 21 13.64% +£423.87 Declan Carroll

4 and above 12 0 0% -£12.00

George Moore

4 and above 60 6 10% +£32.11

Andrew Balding

4 and above 10 1 10% -£6.89

Richard Fahey

4 and above 38 7 18.42 +£4.26

Ger Lyons 4 and above 15 1 6.67% -£5.94 Ralph Beckett

4 and above 11 1 9.09% +£43.53

David Evans

4 and above 35 3 8.57% +£58.71

Donald Whillans

4 and above 33 2 6.06% +£239.86

William Amos

4 and above 46 2 4.35% -£22.66

Totals 414 44 10.63% +£777.51 As you can see, once again the simple option of removing a few trainers (Declan Carroll, Andrew Balding, Ger Lyons, and William Amos) will tweak the figures in our favour, but I am quite happy with the 187.8% return on investment – somewhat better than the local bank is currently offering! Lastly, and for your amusement only, the trainers I assumed would be profitable to follow produced the following basic figures: Trainer Number of



Richard Hannon

1,352 152 11.24% +£28.32

Saeed Bin Suroor

750 181 24.13% +£103.55

Mark Johnston 1,266 164 12.95% -£118.99 John Gosden 859 104 12.11% +£70.24 Totals 4,227 601 14.22% +£98.56

A 2.3% return on investment is no good (but at least it’s a profit), but it does show this can be used to our advantage – other punters clearly over bet newcomers from the powerful yards, when they could make money following the other yards as indicated. Conclusions: So, it seems pretty clear there is good money to be made by laying the bottom ten trainers (by loss as listed above) with their debutants over the last ten or so years, and even more money to be made by backing the top ten trainers (by profit) with their debutants. For reasons unknown, they are not overly successful percentage-wise, but the prices of their winners far outstrip the losers. There are variations you can see and use I am sure, but it does look like we have stumbled on to something very profitable here – and in the future I plan to look at how those self-same debutants fare next time out, so do tune in and watch this space for further revelations.

How to Cash In Using Handicap Debutant Stats In this month’s article, the Statman has been doing his thing, trawling through the stats to find you profitable betting angles, and he’s outdone himself this month by delivering not just a profitable backing angle, but also a profitable laying angle, all based around the performance of certain trainers’ horses who debut on the racecourse. Before we begin, here’s a quick guide to spotting debutants easily... Below is a screenshot taken from www.racingpost.com:

The form column is the most obvious starting point. If there are no form figures in this column, the horse is a debutant. Alternatively, you can click on the horse’s name. Here, I have clicked on ‘Light Weight’ to get a glimpse into his form (if he has any). The screenshot below is what you will be presented with if the horse has no form:

So, without any further ado, on to the Statman... After a month off to refresh the little grey cells, I am back and raring to go with a new (and very simple) idea that I am hoping comes out with the stats I expect to see (though, as you know by now, I never back fit, and am as surprised as you are by what sometimes comes out in the wash). This month I am looking for a laying and backing idea all in one. I’m relying on this age-old concept. Certain trainers do not have their horses fit at the first time of asking. If that assumption is correct, can we make money laying the first-time-out horses with certain trainers, and/or backing the first time out horses with other trainers. I’m using the old adage K.I.S.S (‘keep it simple, stupid!’). An advantage with this idea is that it covers all codes of racing, from Flat to Jumps and All-Weather races. I have to admit, I did have a pre-conceived idea of exactly which trainers would be where, and in advance my guess would have been David Elsworth, Brian Meehan, Roger Charlton and Marcus Tregoning for the lay side of my equation; with Richard Hannon, Saeed Bin Suroor, Mark Johnston, and perhaps John Gosden to make a profit from backing their first time out horses. We’ll soon see if I am even close to the dartboard let alone the bulls eye! For the sake of accuracy, this is the following criterion under which these stats were produced: 1) Figures are taken from 1 January 2004 to date (2 August 2013), which is ten years plus of data to obtain realistic figures. 2) Trainers with less than 20 runners in that period have been deleted – this is an arbitrary figure made up by myself in an attempt to avoid trainers with fewer runners skewing the figures.

3) The first set of figures will show which trainers do not seem to have their horses finely tuned first time out and will be followed by a simple breakdown by age, to reduce bets for those who like that sort of thing. 4) The second set of figures will be those trainers that are profitable to follow with horses making their debut followed by a simple break down by age, then by course and finally by going. 5) I have not allowed for any commission in any of the profit or loss figures, as we all pay varying rates, holidays etc. 6) Races covered included United Kingdom and Ireland – trainers the same. B) This first table shows the stats as they relate to the following:

All courses, all ages, all going, all trainers, in loss making order (i.e. best value to lay)

Trainer Number of



M. Tompkins 222 0 0% -£222.00 Alan Berry 182 0 0% -£182.00 Luca Cumani 430 25 5.81% -£172.42 Ed Dunlop 530 31 5.85% -£168.69 Michael Bell 451 27 5.99% -£163.72 Sir Mark Prescott

316 24 7.59% -£130.35

Paul Midgley 162 2 1.23% -£129.75 Clive Brittain 374 21 5.61% -£128.89 Evan Williams 271 21 7.75% -£128.81 Mick Channon 865 72 8.32% -£122.46 Totals 3803 223 5.86% £1,549.09 So, in conclusion, the percentage profit (to £1 stakes) would be a massive 40.73% simply by laying every debutant from the ten trainers listed. Also, and for my own benefit as much as yours, the ones I thought would head the list… Trainer Number of



David Elsworth

253 13 5.14% -£40.20

Brian Meehan 733 44 6.00% -£49.37 Roger Charlton 359 27 7.52% -£49.00 Marcus Tregoning

331 31 9.37% +£110.19

Totals 1,676 115 6.86% -£28.38

So what do I know? Lol – not a lot by the look of it! Although we cannot increase the amount of pure profit from the ‘top ten’, we can look to increase the percentage profit by reducing the number of bets... Let’s start with age... B) Two-year-olds only: Trainer Age Of


Number of Winners


M Tompkins 2 197 0 0% -£197.00 Alan Berry 2 139 0 0% -£139.00 Luca Cumani 2 197 10 5.08% -£109.13 Ed Dunlop 2 390 24 6.15% -£164.74 Michael Bell 2 37 19 5.64% -£145.72 Sir Mark Prescott

2 240 15 6.25% -£122.95

Paul Midgley 2 126 2 1.59% -£93.75 Clive Brittain

2 289 17 5.88% -£84.49

Evan Williams

2 1 0 0% -£1.00

Mick Channon

2 748 63 8.42% -£88.14

Totals 2,364 150 6.34% -£1,145.92 Not a lot of difference in the profits for a lot less bets (and an increased 48.47% return on investment), so it rather depends on how you like to do your punting – oh, and the size of your betting bank of course! C) Three-year-olds only: Trainer Age Of


Number of Winners


Mark H Tompkins

3 24 0 0% -£24.00

Alan Berry 3 29 0 0% -£29.00 Luca Cumani 3 191 9 4.71% -£91.18 Ed Dunlop 3 126 6 4.76% +£1.95 Michael Bell 3 109 7 6.42% -£17.31 Sir Mark Prescott

3 69 9 13.04% -£0.40

Paul Midgley 3 20 0 0% -£20.00 Clive Brittain

3 81 3 3.7% -£63.15

Evan Williams

3 24 5 20.83% -£5.73

Mick 3 107 7 6.54% -£35.06

Channon Totals 780 46 5.89% £283.88 And a 36.39% return on investment – good, but personally I would be tempted to stick with the 2-year-olds, while there simply aren’t enough 4-year-olds and above to allow them to influence our statistics! Having looked at laying, can we find a profitable backing strategy for certain trainers with horses making their debuts? A) All courses, all ages, all going, all trainers, in profit making order: Trainer Number of



Paul Nolan 157 21 13.38% +£420.87 Declan Carroll 106 3 2.83% +£372.71 George Moore 144 11 7.64% +£296.83 Andrew Balding

519 35 6.74% +£282.67

Richard Fahey 647 87 13.45% +£278.15 Ger Lyons 209 15 7.18% +£267.67 Ralph Becket 427 50 11.71% +£253.06 David Evans 321 23 7.17% +£240.96 Donald Whillans

33 2 6.06% +£239.86

William Amos 52 3 5.77% +£229.01 Totals 2,615 250 9.56% +£2,881.79 Interestingly, I freely admit that I would never have included any of those trainers in a profitable list for backers for first-time-out horses of any age. In fact I thought Andrew Balding would be in the lay list to be honest, and it would appear every other punter feels the same, as the strike rate is low enough to suggest it is the odd long-priced winner that is making all the profit! Whatever the cause, a return of investment of 110.16% is most certainly not to be sniffed at. What happens if we break these stats down by age? B) Two-year-olds only: Trainer Age Number of



Paul Nolan 2 2 0 0% -£2.00 Declan Carroll

2 56 3 5.36% +£422.71

George 2 57 3 5.26% -£6.66

Moore Andrew Balding

2 391 24 6.14% +£273.98

R. Fahey 2 519 75 14.45% +£297.45 Ger Lyons 2 133 10 7.52% +£162.93 Ralph Beckett

2 334 41 12.28% +£190.13

David Evans

2 246 19 7.72% +£219.44

Donald Whillans

2 0 0 0% £0.00

William Amos

2 0 0 0% £0.00

Totals 1,738 175 10.07% £1,557.98 A return of investment of 89.64% isn’t as good as backing them overall, though we can all see that leaving out any juvenile debutant trained by Paul Nolan or George Moore will tweak the figures in our favour. C) Three-year-olds only: Trainer Age Number of



Paul Nolan 3 1 0 0% £0.00 Declan Carroll

3 38 0 0% -£38.00

George Moore

3 27 2 7.41% +£271.38

Andrew Balding

3 118 10 8.47% +£15.58

Richard Fahey

3 90 5 5.56% -£23.56

Ger Lyons 3 61 4 6.56% +£110.68 Ralph Beckett

3 82 8 9.76% +£19.40

David Evans

3 40 1 2.5% -£37.20

Donald Whillans

3 0 0 0% £0.00

William Amos

3 6 1 16.67% +£251.67

Totals 463 31 6.7% +£569.95 Although we can clearly see that the figures can be ‘upped’ by dropping out Declan Carroll with his 3-year-olds as well as Richard Fahey and David Evans, there is still an excellent

return on investment of 123.1%, which is better than I would have expected by a considerable margin. D) Four-year-olds and older: Trainer Age Number of

Runners Number Of Winners


Paul Nolan 4 and above 154 21 13.64% +£423.87 Declan Carroll

4 and above 12 0 0% -£12.00

George Moore

4 and above 60 6 10% +£32.11

Andrew Balding

4 and above 10 1 10% -£6.89

Richard Fahey

4 and above 38 7 18.42 +£4.26

Ger Lyons 4 and above 15 1 6.67% -£5.94 Ralph Beckett

4 and above 11 1 9.09% +£43.53

David Evans

4 and above 35 3 8.57% +£58.71

Donald Whillans

4 and above 33 2 6.06% +£239.86

William Amos

4 and above 46 2 4.35% -£22.66

Totals 414 44 10.63% +£777.51 As you can see, once again the simple option of removing a few trainers (Declan Carroll, Andrew Balding, Ger Lyons, and William Amos) will tweak the figures in our favour, but I am quite happy with the 187.8% return on investment – somewhat better than the local bank is currently offering! Lastly, and for your amusement only, the trainers I assumed would be profitable to follow produced the following basic figures: Trainer Number of



Richard Hannon

1,352 152 11.24% +£28.32

Saeed Bin Suroor

750 181 24.13% +£103.55

Mark Johnston 1,266 164 12.95% -£118.99 John Gosden 859 104 12.11% +£70.24 Totals 4,227 601 14.22% +£98.56

A 2.3% return on investment is no good (but at least it’s a profit), but it does show this can be used to our advantage – other punters clearly over bet newcomers from the powerful yards, when they could make money following the other yards as indicated. Conclusions: So, it seems pretty clear there is good money to be made by laying the bottom ten trainers (by loss as listed above) with their debutants over the last ten or so years, and even more money to be made by backing the top ten trainers (by profit) with their debutants. For reasons unknown, they are not overly successful percentage-wise, but the prices of their winners far outstrip the losers. There are variations you can see and use I am sure, but it does look like we have stumbled on to something very profitable here – and in the future I plan to look at how those self-same debutants fare next time out, so do tune in and watch this space for further revelations.

The truth about last-‐time-‐out winners

Regular reader ‘Tony C’ has been in contact asking what seems to be a relatively simple and obvious question: ‘What would happen if you backed any horse that won last time out?’ Now I would imagine that bookmakers would cotton on to a horse that is clearly on form, but Tony showed me winners at all sorts of prices. However, losers must obviously come with the territory, so what can we find out to try and streamline the selections? What would happen if we simply backed every horse which won last time out on their next run? Would we make instant easy money or would we lose money hand over fist? Let’s find out… I advise using The Racing Post (either the newspaper or the website – www.racingpost.com).

1) Look at every race, with the exception of any with the word ‘Maiden’ in the title, at any meeting. Maiden races feature horses which have not won a race before.

2) Look to the set of numbers, or the number to the immediate left of every horse’s name.

3) Look for any horse with the number ‘1’ nearest to its name; i.e. the figure furthest right of the set of figures. This tells you that horse won on his or her last visit to a racecourse.

In the example below, Havelovewilltravel won its last race (the bold font indicating that the race was won on the All Weather as opposed to the turf).

The first step is to look at all races – over all tracks and all going. The stats began from 1 January 2003 to date (which is around 10+ years of data). Staking in our table is a nominal £1 per point. Number of Selections

Number of Winners

Strike Rate Profit/Loss at Starting Price

Profit/Loss at Betfair Starting Price

108,898 19,480 17.89% -‐£16,956.27 -‐£3,740.84

This seems to be an emphatic answer to Tony C’s question as to whether backing last-‐time-‐out winners indiscriminately will produce a profit. It will not! As is traditional, I’ll add some filters to see whether we can find a profitable angle. Will the going (ground conditions from firm all the way to heavy) influence the performance of these last time out winners? My reasoning? Last-‐time-‐out winners could be carrying a penalty (more weight) and so their running could be affected over various ground conditions. Here’s the table showing the performance of last-‐time-‐out winners on different ground conditions: Going Number of

Selections Number of Winners



Fast 14 2 14.29% +£2.25 +£5.59 Firm 1,665 318 19.10% -‐£435.17 -‐£311.24 Good 29,463 4,974 16.88% -‐£4,405.20 -‐£398.48 Good to Firm

23,495 4,176 17.77% -‐£4,160.64 -‐£1,521.84

Good to Soft

15,845 2,638 16.65% -‐£2,532.62 -‐£496.16

Hard 7 2 28.57% +£0.50 +£1.07 Heavy 5,305 1,117 21.06% -‐£646.95 +£5.31 Slow * 217 39 17.97% -‐£31.45 -‐£6.17 Soft 13,851 2,588 18.68% -‐£2,068.93 -‐£354.79 Standard* 19,036 3,626 19.05% -‐£2,678.05 -‐£664.13 * indicates ground conditions on All Weather tracks. The stats still offer little hope for Tony C… Having looked at whether ground conditions positively influenced performance, I’ll look at the performance of last-‐time-‐out winners with regards to their Starting Price Order (where, in the table below, the favourite = 1, second-‐favourite = 2, and so forth)… Starting Price Order

Number of Selections

Number of Winners



1 31,424 10,533 33.52% -‐£2,352.96 -‐£941.02

2 20,183 3,924 19.44% -‐£2,545.80 -‐£1,292.29 3 15,192 2,122 13.97% -‐£1,918.34 -‐£450.94 4 11,806 1,236 10.47% -‐£1,705.67 -‐£170.28 5 8,607 663 7.70% -‐£1,915.50 -‐£582.23 6 6,557 407 6.21% -‐£1,705.50 -‐£462.12 Others (7 or higher)

15,129 595 3.93% -‐£4,812.50 -‐£803.37

This is as expected: the strike rate for winners diminishes as the odds for the horses increase. Still there is no profit for Tony C. I looked next at the number of days since the last time out winner last ran… Days since last run

Number of Selections

Number of Winners



1-‐7 11,023 2,725 24.72% -‐£506.37 +£398.82 8-‐14 24,237 4,434 18.29% -‐£3,561.82 -‐£1,035.97 15-‐21 21,839 3,836 17.56% -‐£3,204.32 -‐£630.08 More than 21

51,799 8,485 16.38% -‐£9,683.75 -‐£3,064.02

There is a marginal profit to be had if backing last-‐time-‐out winners to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) who last ran within a seven-‐day period. So far, we have looked at the stats with the following filters:

• ground conditions; • the position of the horse in the betting market; • number of days since the horse last ran.

With none of the above providing that elusive profit, I decided to look at one last filter: that being the actual race courses themselves. Having crunched the numbers across all of the race courses in the UK and Ireland, I drew up a table which I share with you below, showing the most profitable race courses where you can back last-‐time-‐out winners and make a long-‐term profit: Track Number of

Selections Number of Winners

Strike Rate Profit/Loss at Starting price

Profit/Loss at Betfair Starting price

Ayr 1,944 349 17.95% -‐£171.89 +£138.93 Bath 961 189 19.67% -‐£38.02 +£91.03 Beverley 1,141 202 17.70% -‐£114.17 +£37.49

Carlisle 1,163 239 20.55% -‐£3.99 +£142.29 Cork 466 85 18.24% -‐£64.76 +£31.46 Curragh 1,129 180 15.94% -‐£177.15 +£153.69 Down Royal 288 60 20.83% -‐£15.58 +£28.73 Dundalk 846 151 17.85% -‐£52.27 +£152.27 Exeter 911 189 20.75% -‐£87.39 +£65.60 Folkestone 801 195 24.34% -‐£48.83 +£31.80 Galway 593 91 15.61% -‐£97.75 +£52.20 Haydock 2,679 427 15.94% -‐£330.00 +£69.53 Kilbeggan 202 38 18.81% -‐£7.73 +£17.78 Killarney 359 64 17.83% -‐£54.16 +£6.97 Leopardstown 1,091 194 17.78% -‐£166.23 +£159.30 Ludlow 762 169 22.18% -‐£63.20 +£4.77 Market Rasen 1,320 271 20.53% -‐£117.37 +£52.63 Naas 503 99 19.68% -‐£42.60 +£50.50 Navan 489 99 20.25% -‐£77.78 +£0.30 Newmarket 4,893 671 13.71% -‐£664.11 +£112.52 Newton Abbot

1,067 256 23.99% -‐£54.69 +£76.98

Plumpton 676 194 28.70% +£2.53 +£46.30 Pontefract 1,136 190 16.73% -‐£92.25 +£40.42 Ripon 857 141 16.45% -‐£90.13 +£19.85 Sligo 157 38 24.20% +£33.94 +£69.64 Stratford 1,298 247 19.03% -‐£125.55 +£42.47 Thirsk 878 149 16.97% -‐£74.68 +£43.26 Tramore 193 48 24.87% +£36.38 +£128.22 Uttoxeter 1,445 305 21.11% -‐£115.64 +£22.32 Warwick 1,233 233 18.90% -‐£112.41 +£13.97 Yarmouth 1,064 222 20.86% -‐£69.45 +£43.76 TOTALS 32,545 5,985 18.39% -‐£3,056.93 +£1,946.98 It seems now that we are seeing that the profit Tony C hoped for – as long as we are betting at Betfair Starting Price (BSP). Clive will be showing you how to place a bet at BSP in the accompanying video on the members’ area of the WRWM website. Finally, we have something which will answer Tony C’s question! Follow these simple steps:

1) Go to the Racing Post website (www.racingpost.com). 2) Make a note of any horse that won last time out: i.e. has the figure ‘1’ nearest to the

horse’s name in the form-‐figures to the left of the horse’s name (see Havelovewilltravel from earlier).

3) Make a note of where the horses won last time out. This can be achieved by clicking on the horse’s name at www.racingpost.com and bringing up its past form. (Please refer to the accompanying video).

4) If the race course at which the horse last won at was Ayr, Bath, Beverley, Carlisle, Cork, Curragh, Down Royal, Dundalk, Exeter, Folkestone, Galway, Haydock, Kilbeggan, Killarney, Leopardstown, Ludlow, Market Rasen, Naas, Navan, Newmarket, Newton Abbot, Plumpton, Pontefract, Ripon, Sligo, Stratford, Thirsk, Tramore, Uttoxeter, Warwick, or Yarmouth, back the last-‐time-‐out winner AT BETFAIR SP (NOT with bookmakers), and expect to make a long-‐terms profit, assuming the past indicators are repeated in the future.

5) If the horse you have annotated last ran (and won) at any track other than those listed, you can LAY the horse on Betfair (TO BETFAIR SP), and expect to make a long-‐term profit, assuming the same past indicators are repeated in the future.

Backing last-‐time-‐out winners indiscriminately is not profitable. Tony C now knows this, and so do you. Please do make use of the race course table and back last-‐time-‐out winners who ran last time out at only those race courses specified. Please ensure that you log into the members’ site at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, to see more from the Statman.

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Piggy-back the professional handicappers · Piggy-back the professional handicappers This month, the Statman lets the professionals do the work and then shows us how to exploit their