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PIC Symposium 2010 | Nashville, TN
Why the Broiler Industry Dramatically Increased Live Weights…
and What It Got Us
Michael DonohueVice President Agri Stats, Inc.2011 PIC Symposium
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Agri Stats and the Broiler Industry
• Agri Stats – A Benchmarking Tool– Xerox in the 80’s– Best Management Practice Programs
• Confidential and Verifiable Identification of Competitive Strengths and Opportunities
• Action Plans to Improve Costs and Efficiencies
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Agri Stats and the Broiler Industry
• Started by Jim Cox – 1985• Currently > 95% of U.S. Broiler Processors• Turkey report since 2001 – 90 % Industry Participation• Egg report• Express Markets Inc. (EMI)• Swine report : over 1.8 million sows
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Presentation Topics
• Field Improvements Over Time
• The Growth of the ‘Big Bird’ Industry
• Seasonal trends in growing ‘big’
• Challenges to the sector
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Presentation Topics
• Field Improvements Over Time
• The Growth of the ‘Big Bird’ Industry
• Seasonal trends in growing ‘big’
• Challenges to the sector
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Average Broiler Wt.Agri Stats Vital Signs 1988 through 2010
4.004.254.504.755.005.255.505.756.006.25
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Liv
e W
t. (
Lb
s.)
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Broiler Livability and Field Condemn %
93.0%
93.5%
94.0%
94.5%
95.0%
95.5%
96.0%
96.5%
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
% L
ivab
ilit
y
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
% F
ield
Co
nd
emn
% Livability % Field Condemn
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Days and Calories Conversion to 5.0 Lb. Live Wt.Agri Stats Vital Signs 1992 through 2010
4042
4446
4850
5254
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
Day
s to
5.0
Lb
s.
24002500
26002700
28002900
30003100
Cal
Co
nv.
/ liv
e L
b.
Days to 5.0 Adj. Cal Conv./Live Lb.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
White Meat YieldAgri Stats Vital Signs 1994 through 2010
13.0%14.0%15.0%16.0%17.0%18.0%19.0%20.0%21.0%22.0%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Wh
ite
Mea
t %
of
Liv
e W
t.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Evis. Yield % of Live Wt.Agri Stats Vital Signs 1994 through 2010
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Evi
s. Y
ield
% o
f L
ive
Wt.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
% Production (65 Weeks)Agri Stats Vital Signs 1988 through 2010
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
% H
D P
rod
uct
ion
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
% Hatchability (65 Weeks)Agri Stats Vital Signs 1988 through 2010
82.0%
82.5%
83.0%
83.5%
84.0%
84.5%
85.0%
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
% H
atch
abil
ity
c
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Presentation Topics
• Field Improvements Over Time
• The Growth of the ‘Big Bird’ Industry
• Seasonal trends in growing ‘big’
• Challenges to the sector
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Industry Live Wt. by Bird Sector
3.50
4.50
5.50
6.50
7.50
8.50
Liv
e W
t. (
Lbs
.)
Large Debone Tray Pack Fast Food
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Plant Cost
141618
20222426
2830
Cen
ts/L
b.
Large Debone Tray Pack Fast Food
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Number of Large Bird Deboning Plantsin Agri Stats
05
1015202530354045
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
# of Plants
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Breast Meat Deboning Labor Cost/Lb.U.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Cents/Lb.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Breast Meat Efficiencies – Lbs. per ManhourU.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Lbs./MH
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Breast Meat Deboning – Hourly Wage RateU.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$11.00
$12.00
$13.00
$14.00
$15.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
$/Hour
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Boneless Breast Meat Yields - % of Live Wt.U.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
WM Yield
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Breast Meat as a % of Total Evis. Product MixU.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% of PMIX
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Bnls Dark Meat as a % of Total Evis. Product MixU.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% of PMIX
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Presentation Topics
• Field Improvements Over Time
• The Growth of the ‘Big Bird’ Industry
• Seasonal trends in growing ‘big’
• Challenges to the sector
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Changes in Live Wt. Big Bird Deboners
7.0
7.27.47.6
7.88.08.28.4
20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52
Week
Live
Wei
ght (
Lbs
.)
2009 2010
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Days to 5.0 Lbs.Birds Grown > 7.5 lb. live weight
39.5
40.0
40.5
41.0
41.5
40 41 42 43 44
Week of the Year
200820092010
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Adjusted Calorie ConversionBirds Grown > 7.5 lb. live weight
2,550
2,575
2,600
2,625
2,650
40 41 42 43 44
Week of the Year
200820092010
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
LivabilityBirds Grown > 7.5 lb. live weight
95.50
95.60
95.70
95.80
95.90
96.00
96.10
96.20
40 41 42 43 44
Week of the Year
200820092010
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Presentation Topics
• Field Improvements Over Time
• The Growth of the ‘Big Bird’ Industry
• Seasonal trends in growing ‘big’
• Challenges to the sector
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Actual Corn Cost/Bushel
$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00$4.50$5.00$5.50$6.00$6.50$7.00$7.50$8.00
S N J07 M M J S N J08 M M J S N J09 M M J S N J10 M M J S N J11
4/2/2011
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Live Cost and Broiler Feed Ing. CostSeptember 16, 2006 through April 9, 2011
25.027.029.031.033.035.037.039.041.043.045.047.0
37 44 51 6 13 20 27 34 41 48 3 10 17 24 31 38 45 52 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 4 11 18 25 32 39 46 1 8 15
Week
Liv
e C
os
t: C
en
ts/L
b.
121416182022242628303234
Fe
ed
Ing
. Co
st
: C
en
ts/L
b.
Live Production Cost Feed Ing. Cost
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Cumulative additional cost to the broiler industry in broiler feed ingredient expense since October 2006
$0
$4,000,000,000
$8,000,000,000
$12,000,000,000
$16,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000
10/2
1/20
06
12/2
1/20
06
2/21
/200
7
4/21
/200
7
6/21
/200
7
8/21
/200
7
10/2
1/20
07
12/2
1/20
07
2/21
/200
8
4/21
/200
8
6/21
/200
8
8/21
/200
8
10/2
1/20
08
12/2
1/20
08
2/21
/200
9
4/21
/200
9
6/21
/200
9
8/21
/200
9
10/2
1/20
09
12/2
1/20
09
2/21
/201
0
4/21
/201
0
6/21
/201
0
8/21
/201
0
10/2
1/20
10
12/2
1/20
10
2/21
/201
1
Additional Cost $
Total over the last 229 weeks $ 19,183,238,256
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Cumulative additional cost to the swine industry in swine feed ingredient expense since October 2006