Physical and Technological Limits to Adaptation

7/29/2019 Physical and Technological Limits to Adaptation.

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Technical and physical limits

to adaptation

This motion is presented by

Lucy Fisher and Esme Holtom


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Introduction

Humans are remarkably

adaptable

Low risk, high impact climate events are

evidence for physical limits

Should we rely on technology as a

solution?


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Climate impact scenarios


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Rapid De-glaciations

Ice melt contributes tosea level rise

Ice sheet dynamics are

difficult to understand

Sea level rise threatens small island

sovereign states


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Change in ocean circulation

Substantial slowing or collapse of Thermohalinecirculation

Cooling in Europe by 2-3 degrees

Reduced precipitation

Change in direction of climate change


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Major feedbacks

Methane reservoir

underlying ocean floor

and arctic permafrost

Permafrost released five

times more methane than

expected

May lead to rapid

increase in GHG

concentrations
http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Methane-3D-balls.png/250px-Methane-3D-balls.png&imgrefurl=http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Organic_Chemistry/Print_version&h=252&w=250&sz=24&hl=en&start=4&sig2=HLsxAdtQAcR6XbK7dg6fyg&tbnid=FzT3-Cf6T3qJTM:&tbnh=111&tbnw=110&ei=dJYLSKaeCYHm0QSsh420AQ&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmethane%2Bballs%2Bof%2Bfire%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Denhttp://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Methane-3D-balls.png/250px-Methane-3D-balls.png&imgrefurl=http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Organic_Chemistry/Print_version&h=252&w=250&sz=24&hl=en&start=4&sig2=HLsxAdtQAcR6XbK7dg6fyg&tbnid=FzT3-Cf6T3qJTM:&tbnh=111&tbnw=110&ei=dJYLSKaeCYHm0QSsh420AQ&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmethane%2Bballs%2Bof%2Bfire%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Denhttp://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Methane-3D-balls.png/250px-Methane-3D-balls.png&imgrefurl=http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Organic_Chemistry/Print_version&h=252&w=250&sz=24&hl=en&start=4&sig2=HLsxAdtQAcR6XbK7dg6fyg&tbnid=FzT3-Cf6T3qJTM:&tbnh=111&tbnw=110&ei=dJYLSKaeCYHm0QSsh420AQ&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmethane%2Bballs%2Bof%2Bfire%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Denhttp://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Methane-3D-balls.png/250px-Methane-3D-balls.png&imgrefurl=http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Organic_Chemistry/Print_version&h=252&w=250&sz=24&hl=en&start=4&sig2=HLsxAdtQAcR6XbK7dg6fyg&tbnid=FzT3-Cf6T3qJTM:&tbnh=111&tbnw=110&ei=dJYLSKaeCYHm0QSsh420AQ&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmethane%2Bballs%2Bof%2Bfire%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Denhttp://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Methane-3D-balls.png/250px-Methane-3D-balls.png&imgrefurl=http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Organic_Chemistry/Print_version&h=252&w=250&sz=24&hl=en&start=4&sig2=HLsxAdtQAcR6XbK7dg6fyg&tbnid=FzT3-Cf6T3qJTM:&tbnh=111&tbnw=110&ei=dJYLSKaeCYHm0QSsh420AQ&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmethane%2Bballs%2Bof%2Bfire%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Den


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Mountain glacier melt

Mountain glacier melt

has more than

doubled over last 2

years.

Increased water

stress for billions of

people


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Other ecosystems

Coral reefs due to

acidification

Loss of boreal forests

Coastal squeeze and

disappearance ofunique ecosystems
http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://www.solcomhouse.com/green_Wrasse_web.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.solcomhouse.com/coralreef.htm&h=346&w=294&sz=33&hl=en&start=1&sig2=rmmiRfIA2bWDhM4rs0shJw&um=1&tbnid=0LtsJp2gGYE5vM:&tbnh=120&tbnw=102&ei=yJYLSJOoC5So0gSotOmzAQ&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dcoral%2Breef%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26rlz%3D1T4GGLR_enGB263GB263%26sa%3DN


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Technological responses?

Loss of water-supply from glacier melt

Thinning Arctic ice and threat to Inuitcommunities

Loss of ecosystem services


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Glacier melt

Artificial snow-making?

Constrained by water

supply Not above -4C

No technologicalresponse beyond

threshold temperature


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Loss of Arctic sea ice

Inuit hunting on sea ice

30- 40% population

dependent on as sole

livelihood


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Loss of Arctic ice

limits to technological adaptation

Snowmobiles unable to locate thin ice

GPS as adaptation? But more risk-taking

loss of traditional

navigationalknowledge

A d h ll th i h


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And when all the ice has

gone..?

The loss of keystone species may

cascade through the socio-ecological

system, eventually influencing

ecosystems services that humans relyon, including provisioning, regulating,

cultural, and supporting services.

(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005,

in IPCC AR4 WGII)


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Technological adaptation to loss of

ecosystem services?

5-6 C warming:

species extinctions

40% ecosystems affected

Loss of key species:

eg. pollinators?

Water-filtration systems

instead of watersheds?

Replacement for rainforests?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1d/European_honey_bee_extracts_nectar.jpg


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The future without limits

Biosphere 2Biosphere 3? Emigration?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Mars_Hubble.jpg


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Technological limits to adaptation

Water-supply from glacier melt:

snow-makinglimited by water

Inuit hunting on Arctic ice:

GPS/ snow-mobileslimited by ice

Loss of ecosystem services:

Biosphere 3? - no reliable technological

response


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Conclusion

There are low probability, high impact

climate scenarios that present physical

limits to adaptation

Cannot rely on technology to adapt to

extreme climate events

Are technological responses always

adaptation?

Mitigation is vital

Documents

Physical and Technological Limits to Adaptation