Phosphorus Resources, Scarcity, and Vulnerability: An Economic Framework

for Scenario Analyses

Nat Springer SPS 2014

Montpellier, France Sept 2014

Phosphate as non-renewable

Source: Burt et al. 2013 “Global Phosphorus: Geological Sources and Demand-Driven Production” in Phosphorus, Food, and Our Future

Types and Grades of Ore

Sources: a) http://photo.jkscatena.com/2010/01/28/mining-tapira/ b) http://florida.sierraclub.org/phosphate.asp

Igneous – Brazil

Sedimentary – Florida

Source: IDFC 2010 “World Phosphate Rock Reserves and Resources”

Market Price

Source: IDFC 2010 “World Phosphate Rock Reserves and Resources”

Source: IDFC 2010 “World Phosphate Rock Reserves and Resources”

Market Price

Scarcity Rent

Source: IDFC 2010 “World Phosphate Rock Reserves and Resources”

Scarcity Rent

Market Price

Cost reduction from new technology adoption

Source: Wall Street Journal, 2013 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324165204579026631593290784

Resources vs. Reserves

Source: Burt et al. 2013 “Global Phosphorus: Geological Sources and Demand-Driven Production” in Phosphorus, Food, and Our Future

Resources vs. Reserves

Source: USGS 2014, Appendix C “Reserves and Resources”

Source: USGS 2014 “Mineral Commodity Summary, Phosphorus”

Country Type

Raw Ore

(mmt)

Grade

Range

Average

Grade

Concentrate-

to-ore ratio

Grade

Type

Mining

losses

Processed

Concentrate

(mmt)

Final

Grade

Reserve 3022 - 18% 0.30 3 0.95 870

Additional Resource 478 11-28% 13% 0.15 4 0.95 69

Reserve 2600 - 10% 0.16 4 0.95 400 30%

Additional Resource 200 5-13% 7% 0.15 4 0.95 29

Reserve 35 5-13% 7% 0.15 4 0.95 5

Additional Resource 125 5-13% 7% 0.15 4 0.95 18

Reserve 1075 30-42% 36% 1.00 1 0.60 645

Reserve 1243 24-30% 27% 0.63 2 0.60 466 30%

Additional Resource 12247 14-27% 20% 0.30 3 0.60 2227

Additional Resource 2234 3-14% 9% 0.15 4 0.60 203

Reserve 79 20-26% 23% 0.63 2 0.95 51 27-30%

Additional Resource 3400 23% 23% 0.30 3 0.95 979

Canada

Brazil

Australia

China

Egypt

Bridging P2O5resource and reserve estimates with explicit extraction technologies

Grade % P2O5 OC Ratio Benefication Technology

4 3 - 14% 0.152 Igneous

3 14 -27% 0.303 Flotation

2 27 - 33% 0.606 Washed and Screened

1 33% - 43% 1.000 Direct Shipping

Source Key

IDFC 2010

USDA 2014

Estimated by Springer

Fantel et. al. 1985

De Voto and Stevens 1979

Region 1 2 3 4

Region

Total

Percent

World

Total 1 2 3 4

Region

Total

Percent

World

Total

North America 0 755 0 148,905 149,660 37.5% 0 412 0 14,105 14,518 15.1%

EU 0 0 0 330 330 0.1% 0 0 0 48 48 0.0%

Eastern Europe 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%

Former Soviet Union 0 0 1,650 5,750 7,400 1.9% 0 0 477 842 1,319 1.4%

China 1,075 1,243 12,247 2,234 16,800 4.2% 645 466 2,227 203 3,541 3.7%

Middle East 572 1,102 11,956 0 13,630 3.4% 543 555 3,498 0 4,597 4.8%

Rest of Asia 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%

South America 0 0 0 3,495 3,495 0.9% 0 0 0 558 558 0.6%

Africa 0 57,689 127,766 19,119 204,574 51.2% 0 30,940 36,906 2,809 70,655 73.5%

Australia 0 0 3,022 478 3,500 0.9% 0 0 870 69 939 1.0%

Grade Total 1,647 60,789 156,642 180,311 399,389 100.0% 1,189 32,373 43,978 18,633 96,173 100.0%

Percent World Total 0.4% 15.2% 39.2% 45.1% 100.0% 1.2% 33.7% 45.7% 19.4% 100.0%

Grade: Raw Ore Grade Type (Processed)

Global resource vs. reserve estimates with explicit extraction technologies

Grade % P2O5 OC Ratio Technology

4 3 - 14% 0.152 Igneous

3 14 -27% 0.303 Flotation

2 27 - 33% 0.606 Washed and Screened

1 33% - 43% 1.000 Direct ShippingSource: Own estimates See original sources on Slide 15

For every region i

A - Interindustry Coefficients y - Final Demand

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8a 8b 9 10

1 grains 1

2 livestock 2

3 other agriculture 3

4 coal 4

5 oil 5

6 gas 6

7 electric 7

8 mining 8

9 manufacuring 9

10 services 10

F - Factor Requirements f - Endowments pi - Factor Prices

1 2 3a 4 5 6 7 8 3b 9 10

a rainfed land a a

b irrigated land b b

c pasture land c c

d rainwater d d

e blue water e e

f1 phosphourus - grade 1 f1 f1

f2 phosphourus - grade 2 f2 f2

f3 phosphourus - grade 3 f3 f3

f4 phosphourus - grade 4 f4 f4

g labor f f

h capital g g

i fossil fuels h h

Note: a) Extraction technology b) Processing Technology

Source: IDFC 2010 “World Phosphate Rock Reserves and Resources”

Market Price

Scarcity Rent

Market Price 2

Ongoing Work and Partnerships

• Scenario development – Multi-disciplinary

– Stakeholder involvement

• Close phosphorus cycle: waste-input output

• More detailed and compreshensive global input-output datasets

• Utilizing detailed LCA technologies in WTM framework

• Changing embodied phosphorus content in diets

nat.springer@gmail.com