Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 25 August 2011 Singaporeresearch.cyberquote.com.hk › page › htm › kc › share_companyrpt › su… · (MICA (P) 027/12/2010) Ref No: RM2011_0165

(MICA (P) 027/12/2010) Ref No: RM2011_0165

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 25 August 2011

Singapore � Singapore shares tumbled on Wednesday, with the Straits Times Index shedding

45.25 points to 2,719.9 at the close. Though we said not to embrace the 300 points increase in DJIA as a sign that market has returned to bull's arms, we are somewhat surprise by the extremely weak showing by FFSTI in yesterday's trading session. Index is likely to register some gains in today's trading session. But we maintain our bearish stance as long as the FSSTI does not close above 2,800.

� In US, trading whipsaw between negative and positive territories. DJIA eventually ended positively, up 144 points to close at 11,320. Orders for U.S. durable goods jumped 4.0% in July. But higher demand was mainly for autos and commercial aircraft whilst orders for most other durable goods fell, reflecting continued softness in other sectors.

Close +/- % +/-FSSTI 2719.90 -45.25 -1.64P/E (x) 7.80P/Bv (x) 1.34

4.18Dividend Yield

STRAITS TIMES INDEX

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

8/24 11/24 2/24 5/24 8/24

Source: Bloomberg

Hong Kong

� The HSI erased earlier gains, and closed near psychological level 19400 due to Moody’s downgraded Japan government’s rating from Aa2 to Aa3 and outlook remains stable. Investors lost confidence of economy growth. The HSI and HSCEI slumped 437 points and 323.33 points to 19466.79 and 10255.63 respectively. Market volume was 75.45 billion.

� Technically, the HSI consolidates around 19400, if HSI did not penetrated below 19400, it maintains a double bottom pattern, otherwise a precipitous collapse is highly possible. Therefore, investors are recommended to use derivatives and gold for hedging the equity position if the HSI penetrated below 19400, also increase their cash level whenever dead car bounce occurs.

� We peg resistance for the HSI at 19800 and support at 19000. Close +/- % +/-HSI INDEX 19466.79 -408.74 -2.06P/E (x) 9.15P/Bv (x) 1.41

3.44Dividend Yield

HANG SENG INDEX

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

8/24 11/24 2/24 5/24 8/24

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Market Focus 25 August 2011

2

Thailand � Thai stocks traded in the red throughout the session on Wed after most stock

markets in Asia opened sharply lower, bucking gains on Wall Street. The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee also raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps in line with market expectations. Heavy selling continued especially in big-cap energy and bank stocks as the Thai market remained expensive relative to its regional peers in the eyes of foreign investors. However, shares of companies expected to benefit from the new government’s policies in property, construction and cement sectors declined less than the broad market. Foreign investors remained net sellers of Thai shares worth Bt3,522.28m on Wed.

� Even though continued foreign sell-offs would continue to put pressure on the Thai stock market, a correction of up to 47.08 points on 4.3% in the SET index over the last five sessions should likely help slow down the selling. In addition, a rebound in overseas markets amid hope that the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would hint of stimulus to aid the struggling economy when he gives highly anticipated speech on Fri should also help spark a rebound in the Thai stock market at least in the near term, awaiting more clarity about external factors.

� For short-term strategy, we believe ‘selective trading’ still makes sense for the Thai market for the meantime.

� Today we peg resistance for the SET index at 1050-1055 and support at 1037-1030.

Close +/- % +/-SET INDEX 1046.43 -10.85 -1.03P/E (x) 12.71P/Bv (x) 1.96

3.93Dividend Yield

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX

800

900

1000

1100

1200

8/24 11/24 2/24 5/24 8/24

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia � On Wednesday (24/08), the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) shed 33.44 points, or

down 0.86%, to 3,847.02. JCI opened in the green zone but shortly declined to negative territory before making a rebound to stay positive until the end of the morning session. However in the afternoon session, the index continuously went down till the end of the day. The range where JCI moved was 3,840.48 – 3,906.49.

� GGRM (consumer), BBCA (banking), BDMN (banking) and TLKM (telecom) were the biggest contributors to the JCI downward movement. This index loss was slowed down by gains in BMRI (banking), MLBI (consumer), AKRA (trade) and EMTK (trade). The breadth of the market was negative with 153 shares declining as compared to 65 that advanced. The total turnover on regular market was recorded at IDR 3.7 trillion (USD 433 million).

� Today, we peg support for the local benchmark index at 3,810 and resistance at 3,900.

Close +/- % +/-JCI Index 3847.02 -33.44 -0.86P/E (x) 15.72P/Bv (x) 3.02

2.35Dividend Yield

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

8/24 11/24 2/24 5/24 8/24

Source: Bloomberg


3

Singapore Technical Analysis – Olam.sg Resistance: S$2.50 Support: S$2.18 We see S$2.18 as a pivotal point. Base on a 5-yr chart, Olam’s support is at $2.18 - $2.20 range. Hence investors and traders may consider modifying this pivotal point base on their personal risk appetite. A. Bullish view – rebound at support – BUY. Cut loss at S$2.18. Ride it to top, near S$2.50 or take profit when satisfied. We recommend investors to be nimble and not greedy in these volatile times. The buy recommendation will be invalidated when counter closes or trades significantly below support of S$2.18. B. Bearish view – Close below support – SHORT Cut loss at S$2.18 To short half of desired size at S$2.18 and to follow through with the second half when counter trades below S$2.00 When counter falls below S$2.00, it is in free fall mode but again, we advise clients to take profit when satisfied. Hong Kong Weichai Power—Company Update (2388.HK) Recommendation: Buy Previous close: $33.80 Fair Value: $39.70

� Due to the slowdown of macro-economic growth, the rising oil costs and higher base last year etc., China's heavy truck demand has

been set back and sales declined by 7.04% yoy in 2011H.But those main customers of Weichai, such as Shaanxi HD, Foton, N-Benz, JAC, SAIC Hongyan are showing an upward increase among the slide of the industry. The Company’s sales growth is expected to be higher than the industry’s average level for the whole year.

� Through M&As and self-R&D, the Company widened its product series and formed full range of diesel engine product line, resulting in a more prominent composite competitive edge. And after the capacity expansion, the Company's market share will increase.

� We expected Weichai’s net profit in 2011 and 2012 to RMB 6.8 billion and 7.5 billion, and EPS of HK$ 5.01 and HK$ 5.52 for FY2011 and FY2012. Enjoying the leading position in China heavy truck powertrain system, Weichai deserves 7.2 x P/E. We give it 12-month TP of HK$39.7 on base of FY12E EPS, 17.6% higher than the last close and rating Buy.

Thailand Charoen Pokphand Foods – Company Update Recommendation: BUY Previous close: Bt30.25 Fair value: Bt36

� Extremely high meat prices amid declining prices for major raw materials like corn would continue to be a catalyst to drive CPF’s earnings to another record high in 3Q11.

� Wage hikes are unlikely to have a significant impact on earnings performance. � The aggressive overseas investments and revenue base diversification in the food sector hold key to future growth for CPF. � We upgrade CPF shares to ‘BUY’ with an upwardly revised 2011 price target of Bt36/share and a 2012 price target of Bt39.50/share.


4

Market News

US � Orders for US durable goods climbed more than forecast in July, but housing data remain mixed, as worries of a recession continue to

linger. A surge in demand for aircraft and autos eclipsed a decrease in business equipment, including computers and machinery, lifting bookings for durables. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years rose 4 per cent, the most in four months, after falling a revised 1.3 per cent in June, a Commerce Department report showed yesterday. The median projection of 81 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 2 per cent gain. (BT Online)

� Banks must report a minimum set of data on their derivatives trades from the end of next year to help regulators monitor financial stability and spot abuses, a draft plan from market supervisors and central bankers said on Wednesday. The Group of 20 leading economies (G-20) called in 2009 for derivatives to be centrally cleared and transactions reported to repositories by the end of 2012. (BT Online)

� Many housing experts say low appraisals are yet another headwind for a housing market already suffering from a plunge in prices, high unemployment and tight credit. Lenders are forced to cap their mortgage loans at the value set by appraisers and buyers and sellers often can't agree on how to make up the difference with an original deal price. Sixteen per cent of realtors reported contract cancellations in July, matching June's level, which was the highest since March 2010, when the National Association of Realtors began collecting data. Nine per cent reported contract delays due to low appraisals, and 13 per cent reported a contract was renegotiated to a lower price because an appraisal came in below the original price in the last three months, the NAR said. (BT Online)

Singapore � Businesses in Singapore will continue to invest and expand here if Singaporeans make electoral choices that favour sound economic

management and provide political stability. This was the view of the Singapore Business Federation (SBF) in its first comments on this Saturday's presidential election which will see one of four candidates become the country's next head of state. The SBF is the apex business chamber which represents over 17,000 local and foreign businesses in Singapore. (BT Online)

� Sales of private homes rose 21.6 per cent quarter on quarter in Q2 2011 and the number of units bought by mainland Chinese buyers hit a new high, according to a new report from DTZ. The property firm, which analysed caveats lodged for both new and secondary sales, said that the number of transactions rose to 8,458 in the second quarter of this year from 6,958 deals in Q1. (BT Online)

Greater China Region � Some power plants in south China will shutdown in winter. Qnhuangdao coal website announced that there is a coal shortage in south

China, the coal inventory of power plants dropped significantly. If the same trend is maintained, this year's winter some plants will shutdown. (Source: cynes)

� Moody's downgraded the Japan government’s rating to Aa3 outlook remains stable. Moody's said due to Japan's huge government budget deficit and government debt since 2009, the government's frequent changes of hindering the implementation of long-term economic and financial policies. However, Japanese investors’ preference on the domestic market and the government bonds support a stable outlook. (Source: cnfol)

� Zhejiang private lending rates hit record highs. According to the People's Bank branch in Wenzhou city issued "Wenzhou private lending market report" shows, Wenzhou private lending market is now in active stage during the estimated market size is about 110 billion, private lending interest rates at a high stage, the annual composite interest rate level for the 24.4%. This report also reveals that 90 %of Wenzhou’s family have and 60 % enterprises participate in private lending.( Source: jrj)

Thailand � Foreign investors remained net sellers of Thai shares worth Bt3,522.28m on Wed. (Source: Bisnews) � Thailand’s fuel consumption in Jul 2011 dropped from Jun, heading into the rainy season and after the end of the harvest season,

according to the Department of Energy Business. LPG consumption in the industrial sector also shrank in Jul after a price hike. However, overall fuel consumption rose in the first seven months of 2011. (Source: Bisnews)

� Motorcycle registrations in Jul 2011 dropped 20% from Jun to 178,000 units as monsoon season, heavy rains and flooding in several areas prompted consumers to delay their motorcycle purchases, according to A.P. Honda Co. In YoY terms, Jul motorcycle registrations were up 14%. (Source: Krungthep Turakij)

� The Bank of Thailand raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 3.50% on Wed in line with market expectations to stem inflationary pressures despite growing fears over economic uncertainties in Europe and the U.S. The hike brought to 2.25 percentage points the total increase in the rate since it started its monetary tightening cycle last Jul. (Source: Bisnews)

Indonesia � Indonesia will prioritize domestic financing to cut State Budget deficit in 2012, which is estimated to reach IDR 125.6 trillion, or 1.6 % of

the projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP), still lower than the estimated IDR 150.8 trillion, or 2.1 % of the GDP in 2011, according to Agus Martowardojo, Finance Minister. In 2009, the projected deficit equaled to 2.4 %, but the actual figure was 1.6 %. In 2010 the figures were 2.1 % compared to 0.7 %. The government projects the state revenue and total grants in 2012 to reach IDR 1,292.9 trillion or 15.9 % of the GDP. (Source: Indonesia Finance Today)

� In the long run, the rise of global and domestic steel price has the potential to raise production cost of property projects, thus prompting higher sale price. However, the climb of property prices will not hamper sales of developers, especially sales to mid to upper segments which are not too sensitive towards purchase value. Real Estate Companies Association said that steel is the second largest material component after cement, consisting up to 30 % in each property project. The impact of climbing steel price is felt most by developers who worked on construction of multi level projects, while landed house developers are less affected due to lower volume of steel usage. The new developers will feel the same impact as when cement price goes up, since the material is equivalent to 22 % of production cost.


5

In the first half of 2011, 26 property companies that have published financial reports generated revenue growth of 22.4 % from the same period last year. The revenue gain is supported by increased margin following the rise of property sale price for lease and for sale. (Source: Indonesia Finance Today)

� Minister Coordinating People’s Welfare Agung Laksono said in 2014 the number of poor people in Indonesia might be reduced by 8-10 % following efforts of raising the welfare of the people. He said in 2010 there were 31.02 million poor people in Indonesia, or 13.33 %, and in 2011 their number dropped to 30.2 million, or 12.49 %. He said in 2012 the government will allocate some IDR 15 trillion for the program, family-based social assistance in reducing poverty. (Source: Kompas)


6

Dollar Index 74.04 +0.00%

70

75

80

85

90

8/25/10 11/25/10 2/25/11 5/25/11

Source: Bloomberg

Gold 1759.33 -0.54%

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

8/25/10 11/25/10 2/25/11 5/25/11

Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil 84.98 -0.34%

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

8/25/10 11/25/10 2/25/11 5/25/11

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasury 10yr Yield 2.2994 +6.80%

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

8/25/10 11/25/10 2/25/11 5/25/11

Source: Bloomberg

FSSTI 2719.9 -1.64%

2500

2700

2900

3100

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3500

8/25/10 11/25/10 2/25/11 5/25/11

Source: Bloomberg

DJI 11320.71 +1.29%

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

8/25/10 11/25/10 2/25/11 5/25/11

Source: Bloomberg

HSI 19466.79 -2.06%

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

8/25/10 11/25/10 2/25/11 5/25/11

Source: Bloomberg

SET 1046.43 -1.03%

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

08/25/10 11/25/10 02/25/11 05/25/11

Source: Bloomberg


7

JCI 3847.02 -0.86%

2300

2800

3300

3800

4300

8/25/10 11/25/10 2/25/11 5/25/11

Source: Bloomberg

SHCOMP 2541.091 -0.51%

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

8/25/10 11/25/10 2/25/11 5/25/11

Source: Bloomberg

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH 6812.71 -0.71%

2300

2800

3300

3800

4300

8/25/10 11/25/10 2/25/11 5/25/11

Source: Bloomberg


8

Major World Indices

Indices % Chg Chg Last Indices % Chg Chg Last

TEL AVIV 100 INDEX +0.67 +6.65 996.46 ALL ORDINARIES INDX -0.10 -4.10 4235.70

HANG SENG INDEX -2.06 -408.74 19466.79 S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX +0.04 +5.48 12343.81

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX -0.86 -33.44 3847.02 FTSE 100 INDEX +1.49 +76.43 5205.85

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI -0.89 -13.22 1469.15 CAC 40 INDEX +1.79 +55.18 3139.55

KOSPI INDEX -1.23 -21.90 1754.78 DAX INDEX +2.69 +148.70 5681.08

NIKKEI 225 -1.07 -93.40 8639.61 DOW JONES INDUS. AVG +1.29 +143.95 11320.71

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX -1.03 -10.85 1046.43 S&P 500 INDEX +1.31 +15.25 1177.60

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE -0.51 -12.93 2541.09 NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX +0.88 +21.63 2467.69

TAIWAN TAIEX INDEX -0.63 -47.30 7502.93 NYSE Arca Gold BUGS -2.15 -12.55 571.02

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX -1.29 -213.49 16284.98

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH -0.71 -49.02 6812.71

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Top Value & Volume

Singapore

Top 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume

GENTING SINGAPOR

1.49 -2.30 -0.035 219,431,000 SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD

0.43 +7.59 +0.030 160,280,000

DBS GROUP HLDGS

12.91 -3.87 -0.520 146,119,600 GENTING SINGAPORE PLC

1.49 -2.30 -0.035 144,651,000

KEPPEL CORP LTD

8.42 -3.66 -0.320 100,971,600 GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD

0.63 -3.10 -0.020 98,760,000

UNITED OVERSEAS

17.93 -2.50 -0.460 91,058,830 NOBLE GROUP LTD 1.37 -1.80 -0.025 40,327,000

SINGAP TELECOMM

2.99 +0.00 +0.000 75,807,580 COSCO CORP SINGAPORE LTD

1.00 -2.45 -0.025 39,277,000

SEMBCORP MARINE

3.74 -5.32 -0.210 68,365,140 GMG GLOBAL LTD 0.22 +0.00 +0.000 34,372,000

SHENG SIONG GROU

0.43 +7.59 +0.030 68,105,180 YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING

1.01 -1.47 -0.015 28,547,000

GOLDEN AGRI-RESO

0.63 -3.10 -0.020 62,488,880 SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD

2.99 +0.00 +0.000 25,416,000

NOBLE GROUP LTD

1.37 -1.80 -0.025 56,051,510 ASIA ENVIRONMENT HLDGS LTD

0.30 +31.11 +0.070 18,528,000

OCBC BANK 8.50 -2.30 -0.200 53,704,520 SEMBCORP MARINE LTD

3.74 -5.32 -0.210 17,889,000



9

Hong Kong


PING AN INSURA-H 62.45 -3.70 -2.40 8,561,231,000 ENVIRO ENERGY IN

0.22 -41.07 -0.15 675,134,000

CHINA LIFE INS-H 20.30 -11.55 -2.65 3,774,721,000 BANK OF CHINA-H 3.01 -2.27 -0.07 313,246,088

CHINA MOBILE 77.65 -1.21 -0.95 1,986,591,000 IND & COMM BK-H 4.76 -3.84 -0.19 276,436,254

IND & COMM BK-H 4.76 -3.84 -0.19 1,338,151,000 SIMSEN INTERNATI

0.02 -6.25 -0.00 239,300,000

CHINA CONST BA-H 5.11 -3.40 -0.18 1,189,436,000 CHINA CONST BA-H

5.11 -3.40 -0.18 227,890,890

HSBC HLDGS PLC 65.35 -2.68 -1.80 1,093,862,000 BAO YUAN HOLDING

0.01 -7.69 -0.00 221,650,000

TENCENT HOLDINGS

174.80 -0.17 -0.30 1,040,990,000 CHINA LIFE INS-H 20.30 -11.55 -2.65 186,000,748

BANK OF CHINA-H 3.01 -2.27 -0.07 951,642,100 CHINA TELECOM-H

4.79 +4.13 +0.19 159,337,209

CHINA NATL BDG-H 11.96 -2.13 -0.26 876,084,200 GCL-POLY ENERGY

3.29 +1.86 +0.06 155,678,852

HUTCHISON WHAMPO

72.55 -0.55 -0.40 847,290,900 PING AN INSURA-H

62.45 -3.70 -2.40 132,447,478


Thailand


BANPU PUB CO LTD 594.00 -2.94 -18.00 2,547,376,000 BTS GROUP HOLDIN

0.65 -2.99 -0.02 289,103,900

KASIKORNBANK PCL

124.50 -1.19 -1.50 2,078,766,000 TMB BANK PCL 1.71 -5.00 -0.09 260,103,100

BANGKOK BANK PUB

151.00 -2.27 -3.50 2,004,805,000 KC PROPERTY PCL

1.17 +27.17 +0.25 162,550,500

SIAM COMM BK PCL 114.50 -1.72 -2.00 1,584,246,000 RASA PROPERTY 2.08 -6.31 -0.14 145,213,300

PTT CHEMICAL PCL 129.00 -2.27 -3.00 1,550,988,000 LIVE INC PCL 0.32 +18.52 +0.05 144,826,600

PTT PCL 315.00 -0.32 -1.00 1,105,225,000 JASMINE INTL PCL

2.62 -2.96 -0.08 141,287,900

SIAM CEMENT PCL 322.00 -3.59 -12.00 1,221,991,000 IRPC PCL 4.76 -3.25 -0.16 138,807,500

ADVANCED INFO 114.00 +0.88 +1.00 1,079,225,000 THAI-GERMAN PRO

0.37 -15.91 -0.07 115,304,800

TOTAL ACCESS COM

69.50 +2.58 +1.75 862,480,000 TRUE CORP PCL 3.96 -1.00 -0.04 114,679,200

BANK AYUDHYA PCL

24.10 -2.43 -0.60 890,224,000 NATURAL PARK PCL

0.03 +50.00 +0.01 96,465,500


Indonesia


ADARO ENERGY TBK 2125.00 -5.56 -125.00 300,579,800,000 BAKRIELAND DEV 145.00 2.11 3.00 351,144,000

BANK RAKYAT INDO 6400.00 -0.78 -50.00 278,351,100,000 KAWASAN INDUS JA 180.00 -3.23 -6.00 325,885,500

PERUSAHAAN GAS N 3100.00 -3.88 -125.00 196,388,800,000 SENTUL CITY TBK 260.00 23.81 50.00 322,937,000

ASTRA INTERNATIO 67150.00 -0.15 -100.00 176,792,000,000 ENERGI MEGA PERS 194.00 -2.02 -4.00 295,320,000

BANK MANDIRI 6850.00 -0.72 -50.00 172,408,100,000 BAKRIE & BROTHER 64.00 -3.03 -2.00 221,606,000

BUMI RESOURCES 2575.00 -1.90 -50.00 167,120,600,000 PT BAYU BUANA 305.00 -10.29 -35.00 159,277,000

CITRA MARGA NUSA 1650.00 1.85 30.00 161,645,500,000 ADARO ENERGY TBK 2125.00 -5.56 -125.00 137,505,500

CHAROEN POK INDO 2850.00 1.79 50.00 143,607,700,000 ALAM SUTERA REAL 420.00 0.00 0.00 119,420,000

BANK NEGARA INDO 4100.00 -1.20 -50.00 126,423,400,000 CITRA MARGA NUSA 1650.00 1.85 30.00 98,769,000

BANK CENTRAL ASI 7900.00 -0.63 -50.00 115,061,200,000 BAKRIE SUMATERA 375.00 -2.60 -10.00 83,956,000



10

Sri Lanka


COLOMBO LAND & D 61.50 1.15 0.70 99,903,500 TESS AGRO LTD 3.10 0.00 0.00 8,997,500

BROWN & CO PLC 275.00 0.44 1.20 77,610,380 PANASIAN POWER L 5.00 -1.96 -0.10 4,854,700

NATL DVLP BANK P 137.00 0.74 1.00 69,841,280 ASIRI HOSPITALS 9.60 -17.95 -2.10 2,036,900

JOHN KEELLS HLDG 204.60 0.44 0.90 44,395,370 EXPOLANKA HOLDIN 13.00 0.00 0.00 1,695,500

SEYLAN BANK PLC 59.90 -1.48 -0.90 38,273,710 COLOMBO LAND & D 61.50 1.15 0.70 1,613,500

HVA FOODS LTD 35.60 -4.56 -1.70 38,252,890 HVA FOODS LTD 35.60 -4.56 -1.70 1,074,100

EAST WEST PROPER 48.00 -1.44 -0.70 30,835,320 PC HOUSE LTD 18.40 -1.60 -0.30 880,100

COLONIAL MOTORS 348.60 0.29 1.00 30,162,360 SEYLAN DEVELOPME 14.80 -1.99 -0.30 825,800

TESS AGRO LTD 3.10 0.00 0.00 29,234,660 NAWALOKA HOSPITA 3.90 -2.50 -0.10 812,500

CEYLON LEATHER 95.50 -2.15 -2.10 27,285,650 BLUE DIAMONDS JE 8.10 -1.22 -0.10 809,800


Commodities & Currencies

Commodities % Chg Chg Last Currencies Price of FX to

S$ Price of FX to

US$

GOLD SPOT US$ / OZ -0.54 -10.28 1,759.33 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR 0.7912 1.0474

SILVER SPOT US$ / OZ -0.02 -0.01 39.73 CANADIAN DOLLAR 0.8182 0.9871

WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot Px -0.34 -0.29 84.98 EURO 0.5749 1.4414

BRITISH POUND 0.5061 1.6374 Source: Bloomberg

US DOLLAR 0.8287 1.0000

Commodities % Chg Chg Last CHINA RENMINBI 5.2950 6.3890

Malaysian Rubber Board Standard +0.26 +3.50 1345.25 HONG KONG DOLLAR 6.4599 7.7946

PALM OIL (RM$/METRIC TON) +0.62 +19.50 3144.00 JAPANESE YEN 63.8000 76.9800

Source: Bloomberg KOREAN WON 896.8940 1082.2400

Index % Chg Chg Last MALAYSIAN RINGGIT 2.4685 2.9785

DOLLAR INDEX SPOT +0.00 +0.00 74.04 THAI BAHT 24.8167 29.9500


US Treasury Yields

Maturity Today Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Months 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

6 Months 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.08

2 Years 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.40

3 Years 0.39 0.37 0.33 0.67

5 Years 1.02 0.95 0.91 1.52

10 Years 2.30 2.15 2.17 3.00

30 Years 3.65 3.49 3.57 4.31

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 3 mths) 2.30

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 2 yrs) 2.08

Source: Data provided by ValuBond – http://www.valubond.com


11

Economic Announcement

US Singapore

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior

8/25/11 Initial Jobless Claims 20-Aug 405K 408K 8/26/11 Industrial Production MoM SA

JUL -1.4% 1.6%

8/25/11 Continuing Claims 13-Aug 3700K 3702K 8/26/11 Industrial Production YoY JUL 7.8% 10.5%

8/25/11 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

21-Aug - - -48.3 8/31/11 Credit Card Bad Debts JUL - - 15.0M

8/26/11 GDP QoQ (Annualized) 2Q S 1.10% 1.30% 8/31/11 Credit Card Billings JUL - - 3010.3M

8/26/11 Personal Consumption 2Q S 0.20% 0.10% 8/31/11 Bank Loans & Advances (YoY)

JUL - - 26.2%

8/26/11 GDP Price Index 2Q S 2.30% 2.30% 8/31/11 M1 Money Supply (YoY) JUL - - 19.4%

8/26/11 Core PCE QoQ 2Q S 2.10% 2.10% 8/31/11 M2 Money Supply (YoY) JUL - - 10.7%

8/26/11 U. of Michigan Confidence

AUG F 55.9 54.9 9/5/11 Electronics Sector Index AUG - - 49.5

8/29/11 Personal Income JUL 0.30% 0.10% 9/5/11 Purchasing Managers Index

AUG - - 49.3

8/29/11 Personal Spending JUL 0.50% -0.20%

9/7/11 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A

7-Sep - - 49301


Thailand Hong Kong


25-26 AUG

Customs Exports (YoY) JUL 29.50% 16.80% 8/25/11 Exports YoY% JUL 14.20% 9.20%

25-26 AUG

Customs Imports (YoY) JUL 21.00% 26.10% 8/25/11 Imports YoY% JUL 14.90% 11.50%

25-26 AUG

Customs Trade Balance JUL $351M $1270M 8/25/11 Trade Balance JUL -40.5B -40.3B

8/26/11 Mfg. Production Index ISIC (YoY)

JUL 5 3.3 8/29/11 Retail Sales - Value (YoY)

JUL - - 28.80%

8/26/11 Mfg. Production Index ISIC (SA)

JUL - - 195.7 8/29/11 Retail Sales - Volume (YoY)

JUL - - 22.20%

8/26/11 Total Capacity Utilization ISIC

JUL - - 63.6 8/31/11 Money Supply M1 - in HK$ (YoY)

JUL - - 12.50%

8/26/11 Forward Contracts 19-Aug - - $26.7B 8/31/11 Money Supply M2 - in HK$ (YoY)

JUL - - 8.40%

8/26/11 Foreign Reserves 19-Aug - - $187.3B 8/31/11 Money Supply M3 - in HK$ (YoY)

JUL - - 8.30%

8/31/11 Total Exports YOY% JUL - - 16.40% 8/31/11 Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def HK$

JUL - - -2.9B

8/31/11 Total Exports in US$ Million

JUL - - $20816M 9/5/11 Purchasing Managers Index

AUG - - 51.4

8/31/11 Total Imports YOY% JUL - - 23.50% 9/7/11 Foreign Currency Reserves

AUG - - $278.8B

8/31/11 Total Imports in US$ Million

JUL - - $18931M 9/13/11 Hong Kong Manpower Survey

4Q - - 21%

8/31/11 Total Trade Balance JUL - - $1886M 9/15/11 Industrial Production (YoY)

2Q - - 3.50%

8/31/11 Current Account Balance (USD)

JUL - - $2499M 9/15/11 Producer Price (YoY) 2Q - - 8.20%

8/31/11 Overall Balance in US$ Million

JUL - - -$972M 9/19/11 Composite Interest Rate AUG - - 0.31%



12

Indonesia Sri Lanka


9/5/11 Inflation (YoY) AUG - - 4.61% 23-25 AUG

Exports YoY% JUN - - 34.30%

9/5/11 Inflation NSA (MoM) AUG - - 0.67% 23-25 AUG

Imports YoY% JUN - - 67.90%

9/5/11 Core Inflation (YoY) AUG - - 4.55% 8/31/11 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

AUG - - 7.00%

9/5/11 Exports (YoY) JUL - - 49.30% 8/31/11 CPI (YoY) AUG - - 7.50%

9/5/11 Total Imports (YoY) JUL - - 28.30% 07-15 SEP

Exports YoY% JUL - - - -

9/5/11 Total Trade Balance JUL - - $3332M 07-15 SEP

Imports YoY% JUL - - - -

05-09 SEP

Danareksa Consumer Confidence

AUG - - 89.6 15-25 SEP

GDP (YoY) 2Q - - 7.90%

05-09 SEP

Consumer Confidence Index

AUG - - 111.8 9/16/11 Repurchase Rate 16-Sep - - 7.00%

05-09 SEP

Foreign Reserves AUG - - $122.67B 9/16/11 Reverse Repo Rate 16-Sep - - 8.50%

05-09 SEP

Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln)

AUG - - 1010.53T 9/30/11 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

SEP - - - -

07-13 SEP

Money Supply - M1 (YoY)

JUL - - 16.60% 9/30/11 CPI (YoY) SEP - - - -

07-13 SEP

Money Supply - M2 (YoY)

JUL - - 13.10% 07-15 OCT

Exports YoY% AUG - - - -

9/8/11 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate

8-Sep - - 6.75% 07-15 OCT

Imports YoY% AUG - - - -

19-23 SEP

Total Local Auto Sales AUG - - 89056 10/11/11 Repurchase Rate 11-Oct - - - -

19-23 SEP

Total Motorcycle Sales AUG - - 737809 10/11/11 Reverse Repo Rate 11-Oct - - - -


PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS

BUY >15% upside from the current price

HOLD Trade within ± 15% from the current price

SELL >15% downside from the current price

We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors

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14

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