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Spatial Planning to Integrate Climate
Change Adaptation at Local Level
Ph.D. Candidate (Cycle-27)
Parveen Kumar
Doctoral supervisor
Prof. Davide Geneletti
Climate change discussion in various forums
Climate change discussion in various forums
German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2007
Risks associated with climate change
IPCC,2014 (WG-II)
IPCC,2014 (WG-II)
Policies and decision interplay
?
Conflicting policies and decision
Lack of tools and methods
Translation of climate science knowledge at
local level
Lack of understanding of the core issues
Key gaps
Key gaps for effective integration of climate issues
Aim
Understanding climate change risks and perceptions in spatial
planning policies at local level.
□ By investigating spatial planning policies
□ Developing assessment framework and decision support
system
That aims to improve current spatial planning practices and
planning tools to build resilient living spaces.
To develop and test an assessment framework to
evaluate integration of climate change
Objective 1
Research questions
□ Synergy among climate science information and
planning policies
□ Extent of integration of climate issues into spatial
policies
□ Key gaps to address climate change issues
Climate policy architecture in India
□ Water stress
□ Food security
□ Impact on natural ecosystems
□ Impact of physical development
□ Impact on human health
□ Increased energy consumption
National action plan for climate
change (NAPCC)
8 National Mission
□ National Solar mission
□ Sustainable habitat
□ Sustaining Himalayan ecosystem
State level climate policies
(10 states)
Local Level (Urban or rural )
□ Development policies
□ Sectoral policies
Expanding faster than urban population
Modify surrounding environment and natural resources
Account for 60-75% of total GHG emission
Influence the economy
Urban area and climate change
issues
Climate change issues at local spatial scale
Review framework
Method
Selection of plans
Population
Status of the region
Capacity
Risk /stress variable
Accessibility of spatial plans and
policies
No of cities 46
No of spatial plans 59
Case study: India
Policy analysis
□ Organisational analysis
□ Content analysis
Criterion analysis
□ Breadth analysis ( measure the extent to which each criterion were
addressed across all the spatial plans)
Breadth Analysis(BS) 𝑗 = ( 𝑃𝑗 𝑁) ∗ 100
□ Depth analysis(Measures how much importance is given for each
criterion in the spatial plan)
Depth score(DS) 𝑗= ( 𝑗=1
𝑃𝑗𝐼𝑗 2𝑃𝑗) ∗ 100
Method
Tang et al., (2010)
Results : Overall performance of spatial plans
Scale range 0 to 80
Variables Awareness Analysis Action
Mean 0.09 0.23 0.20
Std. Deviation 0.16 0.12 0.12
Minimum 0.00 0.00 0.04
Maximum 0.88 0.55 0.65
Results : Performance by components
Scale range 0 to 1
Results : Performance by the criterion (component)
Awareness/Analysis/Action Breadth %
Depth%
Highlights
□ Framework focuses on processes and potential outcome
□ Highlights keys weaknesses in the planning practices to
integrate of climate concerns
□ Helps to improve objectives of climate change integration issue
within spatial policies or sector policies at local level
To develop working methodology of vulnerability
assessment to climate change and test it at different
spatial scales to identify the hot spots of climate change
Objective 2
Research questions
□ Basis of vulnerability assessment and its usability
□ Prioritising response actions
□ Perception of people, socio-ecological context and
institutional arrangement
''The degree to which a system is susceptible to adverse effects
of climate change, including climate variability and extremes''.McCarthy (2001)
V = f 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 , 𝑆𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 , 𝐴𝑑𝑎𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦
Füssel et al. and McCarthy (2006; 2001)
Where;
Exposure = magnitude to which a system is exposed to significant
climatic related events
Sensitivity = extent to which a system is affected
Adaptive Capacity = capacity of a system to organize itself to the
external and internal stresses and respond to them
Vulnerability
Component Criteria Criteria example
Exposure C1 Hot days/year (Tmax>30º C)
C2 Mean temperature Increase
:
Cn
Sensitivity C1 Infrastructure
C2 Poor living and built conditions
:
Cn
Adaptive
Capacity
C1 Livelihoods and awareness
C2 Green infrastructure
:
Cn
Examples of Criteria under component
Spatial analysis
□ Criteria assessment
□ Weighing
□ Criteria aggregation
□ Sensitivity analysis
□ Cluster analysis
Working methodology
Case studies and climate change concerns
1
2
Bangalore
Darjeeling
State Karnataka
District Bangalore
Urban
Area 1,276 km2
Population 9.6 million
Density 7,500/km2
Case study: Bangalore
□ Literature review
□ Primary survey
□ Secondary survey
Component Criteria example
Exposure
A 1, 4
Hot days/year (>30º C)
Mean temperature Increase
Number of days/year with heavy rain
(RR >30mm)
Sensitivity
A 3, 8
Area covered by road
Percentage of people younger than 6
years
Loss of lakes and wetland area
Adaptive
Capacity
A 3, 10
Percentage of household having
banking facilities
Percentage of households having
drinking water connection
Green space/ per person
Selection of criteria and data collection
Exposure
□ Number of days of
temperature above
30 ͦ C
□ Mean temperature
□ Rainfall greater than
830 mm
□ Number of days
above 30 mm rain
Spatial distribution of the exposure
Sensitivity
□ Physical and economic
aspect
□ Social aspect
□ Environmental aspects
Spatial distribution of the sensitivity
• Infrastructure
• Poor living & built conditions
• Land use change
Adaptive capacity
□ Social aspect
□ Basic facilities aspects
□ Ecological aspects
Spatial distribution of the adaptive capacity
Potential vulnerability distribution and clusters
Criteria
Vulnerability profiling
State West Bengal
District Darjeeling
Area 3,149 km2
Population 1.8 million
Density 584/km2
Case study: Darjeeling District of Eastern Himalaya
Potential vulnerability distribution
Perception of vulnerability: Household level
M/RM/R
P/U
M/U
Perception of households at site level: Component
Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
Highlights
□ Pattern and magnitude of climate change vulnerability
□ Practical challenges of its application
□ Criteria analysis helps to assess concerns and make trade-off
decisions
□ Application of methodology shows robustness and usability at
different spatial and socio-ecological settings
To apply ecosystem based adaptation responses to
climate change at local level and identifying barriers
Objective 3
Research questions
□ Relationships between ecosystem services and
climatic vulnerability
□ Effectiveness of ecosystem-based adaptation
responses to climate change
Ecosystem services
Ecosystem services (ES)Benefits human populations derive from the ecosystems, such as goods and
products, regulation of natural processes and nonmaterial benefits.
EbA responseManagement of land, water and living resources that promotes conservation
and sustainable use to adapt or to mitigate the adverse effects of climate
change.
UNEP (2014)
Naumann et a l.,(2011)
Provisioning
(Goods provided
by ES)
Food, fresh
water, wood,
fibre
Regulating
(Benefits obtained
from regulation of
ES process )
Climate regulation
, flood control ,
detoxification
Cultural
(Non-material
benefits obtained
from ES)
Spiritual ,
recreational ,
symbolic
Supporting
(Services
necessary for the
production of other
ES)
Soil formation,
nutrient cycling,
primary production
MA (2005)
State West Bengal
District Darjeeling
Villages 6
Population 969
Case study: Darjeeling District of Eastern Himalaya
1
2
34
5
6
Method: Ecosystem based adaptation responses
Land use change analysis
• Changes in climate variables
• Land use change analysis and scenarios development
Socio-economic analysis
• Understand the socio-economic structure
• Concerns of climate change for different villages in the selected site
Ecosystem services analysis
• Potential ecosystem services identified
• Selection of few ecosystem services for further analysis
Eastman, 2009; Geneletti, 2013 Eastman, 2015; Sharp, 2014
Land use change analysis
Business as usual (LU-2030B):
□ Forest policies (promotes plantation of new species of trees , forest
management)
□ Intensive agriculture practices
Conservation (LU-2030C):
□ Forest conservation
□ Ecosystem based agriculture practices
□ Landscape oriented and climate resilient infrastructure and physical
development
□ Climate resilient land use planning
Land use change analysis
Land use change analysis
Ecosystem services
Category Sub-Category Example
Provisioning Food production Tea, Cardamom, tomato, wheat and fruits
Livestock Sheep, Got, Poultry , Pigs
Forest products Timber production, honey
Fresh water Water yield for agriculture and human use
Regulating Air quality Air purification
Climate regulation CO2 sequestration
Habitat
maintaining
Biodiversity and natural protected areas
Water regulation Water in-filtration, hydropower
Erosion control Terraces, deforestation
Soil retention Landslide, water courses and riversides
Cultural Spiritual value Home to spiritual tribes
Nature tourism Hiking, mountain activities and home stay
Fo
od
pro
du
ctio
n
Tim
be
r p
rod
uctio
n
EbA based on future land use scenario
Highlights
□ Land-use scenarios helps to represent the possible effects of
climate concern at local spatial scale
□ Comparative analysis among EbA helps to make trade-off
decisions
□ Socio-economic perceptions help to link climate change
concerns and EbA benefit
□ Pilot study helps to understand how small changes in local
planning practices improve climate change integration
□ This study helps to develop tools which can provide quality information to
support decision making at local level.
□ Developed assessment framework to evaluate policy at local level is a
promising tool to understand and monitor integration of climate change
issues.
□ Developed vulnerability assessment framework integrate different aspects
and elements of local spatial scale and spatial policies
□ Vulnerability assessment framework assess present and future problem
areas that need urgent policies or response actions
□ Developed pilot study is an effective way to spatially visualize the
effectiveness of different land use scenario and EbA response.
□ Help to initiate climate change debate into physical development and
resources management policies in current extreme events.
Synthesis
7.9 Magnitude Earthquake in Nepal, Tremors Felt Across India
Total death toll exceeds 4000 civilians , 25/04/2015
1. Kumar, P. (2012). Spatial planning and climate change. Impact
Assessment and Project Appraisal, 30(4), 303-304.
2. Kumar, P., Geneletti, D. (2015). How are climate change concerns
addressed by spatial plans? An evaluation framework and an
application to Indian cities. Land Use Policy, 42(0), 210-226.
3. Kumar, P., Geneletti, D., Nagendra, H. (2015). Spatial assessment
of climate change vulnerability at city scale (under review
Environmental Impact Assessment Review).
4. Kumar, P., Geneletti, D., Bawa,K. (manuscript in preparation).
Spatial vulnerability assessment and perception of people to climate
change in Darjeeling Himalaya.
5. Kumar, P., Geneletti, D. (manuscript in preparation). Assessing the
effects of ecosystem based policies for adaptation to climate
change: Darjeeling Himalaya.
Academic and scientific output
□ Indo- US bilateral workshop on 'Adaptation of rural communities to
climate change: Bridging the gap between academia and community
workers and identifying research needs' at Ashoka Trust for
Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Bangalore,
India from Feb 20-21, 2014
□ Documentary on Eastern Himalayas: Climate Change, A project
developed by Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the
Environment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHBCuvl5ICI&feature=youtu.be
Non-scientific output
Committee members
Prof. Davide Geneletti
Prof. Kamal Bawa
Prof. Harini Nagendra
ATREE, Bangalore and Darjeeling
ARPAN Darjeeling
PLANES research group at UNITN
Maitreyi Sur
Special thanks
Content
□ Background
□ Aim and objectives
□ Objective 1
□ Objective 2
□ Objective 3
□ Synthesis
□ Output
Future work
□ How climate policies at higher spatial scales can be integrated
into local policies, streamlining response actions on ground
and implementation structure
□ Future vulnerability assessment study will also include the
future projection of exposure component
□ Focus on developing more scenarios and quantifying the
effectiveness of each scenario for comparison and informed
decision-making
□ Develop hybrid climate adaptation response action and make
comparison
