PHASE CHANGE AND THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM SMITH SCHOOL, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD · 2014. 12. 23. · ‘PPA price’ is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of project

PHASE CHANGE AND THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM SMITH SCHOOL, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD

Michael Liebreich, Chairman of the Advisory Board Twitter: @mliebreich

Oxford, 28 November 2014

2 Michael Liebreich Oxford, 28 November 2014 @MLiebreich

PHASE CHANGE

Source: Wikipedia Commons; The Free Dictionary

Phase Change (n): A change in a feature of a physical system that results in a discrete transition of that system to another state.


$55bn$80bn

$116bn

$167bn$195bn $196bn

$262bn

$318bn$286bn

$254bn

46%45%

44%

17%0.6%

34%

21%-10%

-11%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics).

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004-13 ($BN)


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

10.8 12.0 13.516.0 18.1

24.931.2

41.554.0

63.8

80.888.1

82.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

RENEWABLE ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS 2001-13 (GW)

Note: Excludes large-scale hydro


NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION 2004-13 ($BN)


12.119.4

36.446.0 47.8

39.0

54.8

75.6

58.9 56.0

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

North America & Caribbean

0.9 3.85.8

12.315.6

10.513.412.612.3 9.6

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Central & South America

0.5 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 1.54.5 3.5

11.010.0

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Middle East & Africa

23.834.0

44.1

68.079.3 82.8

110.8123.2

97.8

57.8

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Europe

17.622.228.9

39.049.3

61.9

78.1

103.1108.9120.6

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Asia & Oceania


Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

●  23 December 2014

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN EUROPE Q1 2004-Q3 2014 ($BN)

4.4

7.9

4.15.36.1

10.9

7.48.27.8

13.8

7.8

15.9

9.5

16.714.2

24.6

13.9

22.9 22.2

19.9

12.3

27.4

22.2

17.5

22.925.3

29.531.0

26.9

33.5

29.2

26.3

20.8

23.2

18.3

21.6

14.9

11.812.1

11.012.7 13.0

8.8

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Four quarter running average



Comprehensive review under wayRetroactive changes implemented (2010-13)Retroactive changes implemented (2010 -13)Suspended

Comprehensive review under way

Suspended

EUROPEAN POLICY SUPPORT SCHEMES UNDER REVIEW, 2013



2010–13: CONSOLIDATION

9 Michael Liebreich Oxford, 28 November 2014 @MLiebreich ●  23/12/2014

Note: Values as of 08 October 2014; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2011 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEX

S&P 500NASDAQ

NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2011 – 2014 YTD

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15


5 JANUARY 2014 – CBS/CNBC CLEANTECH CRASH

Credit: CNBC / CBS


Note: Values as of 19 November 2014; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15

NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2014 YTD

S&P 500NASDAQNEX


PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 1976-2013 (2013 $/W)

Source: Paul Maycock, First Solar, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Prices inflation indexed to US PPI.

0.1

1

10

100

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

experience curve historic prices (Maycock)Chinese c-Si module prices (BNEF) Thin-film experience curveFirst Solar thin-film module cost

1976

1985

2003

2006

2012

Cost perW (2013 $)

1976

1985

2003

Q3 2013

2012

Cumulative capacity (MW)

2013

SOLAR PV MODULE COSTS HAVE FALLEN 99% SINCE 1976


1984

19902000 2004

2013

10

50

100

500

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000MW

AVERAGE LEVELISED COST OF ONSHORE WIND 1984-2013 (EUR/MWH)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ExTool Note: Learning curve (blue) is least square regression: R2=0.88 and 14% learning rate. CAPEX, OPEX and capacity factor evolution is included in this LCOE analysis; financing assumptions kept constant.

WIND POWER COSTS HAVE FALLEN 26% SINCE 2009


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Based on a high level calculation of global figures for all renewable energy sectors. Impacts of regional and sector shifts are internalised here.

$251.5 bn

$ 191.7bn

-20%

-4.7%

Investment 2011 Price impact Volume impact Investment 2013

DRIVERS OF REDUCED ASSET INVESTMENT 2011-13


0 100 200 300 400 500

NuclearCHP

Coal firedNatural gas CCGT

Geothermal - flash plantLandfill gas

Large hydroSmall hydro

Wind - onshoreGeothermal - binary plant

Municipal solid wasteBiomass - incinerationBiomass - gasification

Biomass - anaerobic digestionPV - c-Si tracking

PV - c-SiPV - thin film

Wind - offshoreSTEG - tower & heliostatSTEG - parabolic trough

STEG - LFRMarine - tidal

Marine - wave

Q2 2013 central H1 2014 central

8441037

US China Europe AustraliaFossil technologies:

LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY H1 2014 ($/MWH)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: LCOEs for coal and CCGTs in Europe and Australia assume a carbon price of $20/t. No carbon prices are assumed for China and the US.

●  Onshore wind as low as $37/MWh

●  PV projects as low as $80/MWh


Note: Values as of 21 November 2014; Stowe and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2013 – 2014 YTD

0

50

100

150

200

Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15

NEXS&P 500 Oil & GasS&P 500 UtilitiesStowe Global Coal


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC

Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. ‘PPA price’ is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated as the average selling price over the operating history of the project. For projects not reporting to FERC, the PPA price represents the ‘year1’ selling price.

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14

PJM

MISO

MountainWestNEPOOL

NYISO

SPP250 MW

US WIND PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE H1 2008–H2 2013 ($/MWH)


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC

Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. ‘PPA price’ is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated as the average selling price over the operating history of the project. For projects not reporting to FERC, the PPA price represents the ‘year1’ selling price.

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14

AZCACONMNVNYTX

250 MW

US SOLAR PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE H1 2008–H2 2013 ($/MWH)



Note: This represents fund size; actual capital invested is lower and non-public. This figure may not include all non-public deals. Does not include all third-party financiers. Each fund contains an unknown combination of equity, tax equity or debt (or an absence of tax equity or debt). *The $300m Clean Power Finance fund raised on 3 May 2012 does not contain tax equity

0250500750

1,0001,2501,5001,7502,0002,250

Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14

Solar City

Sunrun

SunPower

Clean PowerFinanceSunEdison

Vivint

Sungevity

CUMULATIVE FUNDS CLOSED BY SELECTED THIRD-PARTY FINANCIERS, JAN 2009-MAR 2014 ($M)


US AGE OF GAS UPDATE 1: VOLUME SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD, (BCFD)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14

Marcellus

Eagle Ford

Rest of US 'shale'

Haynesville

Fayetteville

Barnett

Woodford

Bakken

Antrim

Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance


US AGE OF GAS UPDATE 1: VOLUME SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD, (BCFD)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14

Rest of US 'shale'

Haynesville

Fayetteville

Barnett

Woodford

Bakken

Antrim

Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance


Source: EIA; Bloomberg New Energy Finance

PRODUCTION

02468

10121416

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

+ 44% since 2004

02468

10121416

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

-56% since 2004

IMPORTS

US CRUDE OIL (M BARRELS / DAY)


US CAR USE AND FUEL EFFICIENCY

Source: US DOT, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Note: Mpg figures are sales weighted average. Total vehicle miles grew at 2.7% CAGR between 1971 and 2007

FUEL EFFICIENCY (MILES/GALLON)

ANNUAL VEHICLE-DISTANCE TRAVELLED (1,000 MILES PER PERSON)

8.08.28.48.68.89.09.29.4

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

-8.9% since 2004

18.519.019.520.020.521.021.522.0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

+9.7% since 2004


CHINA’S AIR QUALITY PROBLEM (PM2.5 µg per cubic meter)

Picture credit: Feng Li/Getty Images

World Health Organisation

Guideline

Beijing 12 Jan 2013

993

25


CHINESE PREMIER DECLARES WAR ON POLLUTION

Credit: Bloomberg

We will resolutely declare war against pollution as we declared war against poverty

Li Keqiang Premier of the People's Republic of China

March 2014


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020 2030

GW Biomass &wasteSolar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Historic Forecast

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council Note: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook 2014.

2013 Renewable energy 68% of new capacity

CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY TECHNOLOGY, 2004-13, 2020 & 2030


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020 2030

GW Biomass &wasteSolar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Historic Forecast

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council Note: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook 2014.

CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY TECHNOLOGY, 2004-13, 2020 & 2030

2013 Renewable energy 68% of new capacity


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Investment figures includes asset finance and small distributed capacity investment. Biofuels and other non-power generation sectors excluded.

78.7 8.8

12.2 13.5

21.1

33.229.4

22.4

9.8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Other

Wind

Solar

Cumulative capex spent 2004–14 $166 billion

ENERGIEWENDE 2: INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE POWER GENERATING CAPACITY, ($ BN)


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Thermal

Otherrenewables

Biomass- &liquids

PV

Wind

Hydro

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BMWI

Q1 2014: Renewable energy provided 28%

of German electricity

ENERGIEWENDE 1: CHANGES IN GENERATING MIX (TWH)


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Destatis

ENERGIEWENDE 2000–30 (TWH)

Fossil

Nuclear Renewables

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


ENERGIEWENDE 4: IMPACT ON RETAIL PRICES

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg L.P., BSW Solar, Eurostat, Federal Communications Commission

US FIXED LINE VS. MOBILE PRICES ($/MIN)

GERMAN FIT VS. RESIDENTIAL POWER PRICES (EUR/MWH)

Feed-in tariff


ENERGY EFFICIENCY – LED LIGHT BULBS

Picture Credit: Philips


AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 2005–22

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Historical

GDP

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.5

150

180

210

240

270

300

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

AUD trillionTWh




Historical

2010GDP

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.5

150

180

210

240

270

300

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

AUD trillionTWh




Historical

20102011

GDP

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.5

150

180

210

240

270

300

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

AUD trillionTWh




Historical

20102011

2012GDP

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.5

150

180

210

240

270

300

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

AUD trillionTWh




Historical

20102011

20122013

GDP

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.5

150

180

210

240

270

300

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

AUD trillionTWh


PUBLIC MARKETS – OPEN FOR BUSINESS

Source: Tesla


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Numbers are rounded.

2011 2013

206,000 (99% CAGR)

52,000

EVs

1,650,000 (52% CAGR)

715,000 Hybrids

85,000,000 (4% CAGR)

78,000,000

Total

GLOBAL ANNUAL EV SALES 2011 & 2013


Source: Battery University, MIIT, IIT, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Battery pack prices in 2010 dollars.

LITHIUM-ION BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE ($/KWH)

EV LI-ION BATTERYPACK PRICES HAVE FALLEN

43% SINCE 2010

2020

2030

1995

2000 2005

2010H1 2013

H1 2014

10

100

1,000

10,000

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000

Cumulative prod.capacity (MWh)

Consumer LiB experience curve BNEF EV LiB cost forecastHistoric consumer LiB prices Historic EV battery pack prices


2020

2030

1995

2000 2005

2010H1 2013

H1 2014

10

100

1,000

10,000

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000

Cumulative prod.capacity (MWh)

Consumer LiB experience curve BNEF EV LiB cost forecastHistoric consumer LiB prices Historic EV battery pack prices

Tesla's Gigafactory

Cost-competitiveness(by total cost of ownership)

Source: Battery University, MIIT, IIT, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Battery pack prices in 2010 dollars.

EV LI-ION BATTERYPACK PRICES HAVE FALLEN

43% SINCE 2010

LITHIUM-ION BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE ($/KWH)


Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004-Q3 2014 ($BN)

9.312.2

9.010.6

13.3

20.6

15.5

20.721.7

27.223.4

37.2

28.2

35.237.8

52.0

36.0

51.946.0 44.4

30.4

50.447.5

45.2

50.4

56.258.7

69.2

57.1

77.973.8

64.9

52.7

69.2

58.0

61.9

42.1

59.4

48.9

55.4 54.9

65.2

55.0

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Four quarter running average



10.8 12.0 13.516.0 18.1

24.931.2

41.554.0

63.8

80.888.1

82.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

RENEWABLE ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS 2001-13 (GW)

Note: Excludes large-scale hydro

Reasons for drop 2012 – 2013:

80% - price reductions 20% - volume reductions



10.8 12.0 13.516.0 18.1

24.931.2

41.554.0

63.8

80.888.1

82.2

102.9112.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2013 - 2015 Installations forecast to

grow 37%

CLEAN ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS 2001-13 (GW)



FOSSIL FUEL AND NUCLEAR RENEWABLES

GLOBAL POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS 2010–30 (GW)

10687 78 64 52 39

2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Forecast

6083

107

155

196

264

2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

Marine

Solar

Wind

Biomass& wasteGeotherm.

Forecast


DIVESTMENT MOVEMENT

Source: GoFossilFree.org


Oil & Gas Coal

DIVESTMENT MOVEMENT IN PERSPECTIVE

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Arabella Advisors; GoFossilFree.org

Total size of divested portfolios (to September 2014) - $50 billion

Global market cap of quoted oil and gas companies - $5 trillion

Total free float of 106 NEX constituents (September 2014) - $350 billion


FINANCIAL INNOVATION

New owners

Peer-to-Peer

Yield Cos

Solar bonds

Prepaid solar

Forex hedging

Blended finance

ESCO finance

Green Bonds



THE ORACLE OF CLEAN ENERGY

Picture: Bloomberg

We’ve poured billions and billions and billions of dollars [into renewables]. And we’re going to keep doing that as far as the eye can see.

Warren Buffett CEO Berkshire Hathaway


GREEN BONDS WILL RAISE AS MUCH MONEY IN 2014 AS FROM 1995 – 2013

Green bonds raised, 2004 – 2014 ($bn)


$0.2 $1.4 $1.8 $0.5 $0.9

$6.8$3.7

$5.9

$14.3

$21.9

$17.5

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$39.4

(est)

Note: full-year estimate as of 22 July


CLIMATESCOPE COUNTRY COVERAGE 2012-13 AND 2014-15

●  26 Latin American & Caribbean nations

●  19 sub-Saharan Africa

nations

●  10 Asian countries,

including 25 states/

provinces in India & China

●  Nations studied for 2012-13 Climatescope

●  Nations added for 2014-15


Source: Climatescope

POWER CAPACITY & GROWTH, CLIMATESCOPE VS OECD (CUM. CAPACITY, GW, ANNUAL % CHANGE)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Climatescope OECD Climatescope % OECD %


Note: Large hydro not included in this definition of clean energy

CLIMATESCOPE VS. OECD CLEAN ENERGY INSTALLED CAPACITY (GW) AND GROWTH (%), 2008-13

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Climatescope OECD Climatescope % OECD %

Source: Climatescope 2014


INDUSTRIAL POWER PRICES 2013, CLIMATESCOPE COUNTRIES ($/MWH)



RETAIL POWER PRICES, AFRICA, SOLAR VS KEROSENE ($/WEEK)

Picture Credit: SolarSister Note: Illustrative figures for cost of 2 lamps plus mobile phone charging, Kenya, 2012

Kerosene $4 per week

Solar PV $1 per week


NEW CLEAN ENERGY POLICIES COMING INTO FORCE BY YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT, CLIMATESCOPE NATIONS



ENERGY SUBSIDIES COMPARED (2012)

Fossil Fuels ● $544 bn (consumer

subsidies only) ● + $88 bn producer

subsidies (G20 only)

● + $83 bn defence (Gulf only)

● + Impact on health, economic volatility

● + Climate Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; IEA; ODI; Rand Corporation

Clean energy ● ~$100 bn


PHASE CHANGE

Source: Wikipedia Commons; The Free Dictionary

Phase Change (n): A change in a feature of a physical system that results in a discrete transition of that system to another state.


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Thousands

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Thousands


JULY 2012 JULY 2033

GERMAN HOURLY GENERATION PROFILE (GW)


SMALL SOLAR SYSTEM PRICES IN GERMANY AND CALIFORNIA

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BSW Solar, California Solar Initiative

TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($/W)

0

2

4

6

8

10

Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013

Average California residential

Average sub-10kW German

CALIFORNIA PREMIUM TO GERMANY

22% 29%

51%

78%

103%

127%111%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


NEXT WAVE OF PHASE-CHANGING TECHNOLOGIES?

Source: GE, ABB, USB 3.1 Group; BlueGen / Ceramic Fuel Cells

ABB Hybrid HVDC Circuit Breaker

q  Mechanical/solid state hybrid

q  Interrupts 1GW high voltage in 5ms

q  “100-year-old problem” q  Enables Internet of

HVDC

USB 3.1

q  100W power via USB cable

q  No more power cables q  Power TVs, lights,

printers, from your PC q  Enables low-V homes

CFCL MICRO-CHP FUEL CELL

q  Heat and power from natural gas

q  Combined 85% efficiency

q  Silent, resilient q  Enables urban DG

FLEXIBLE GAS PEAKERS

q  Efficiency of CCGT q  Rapid ramp up & load

following q  Within emission limits q  Enables more

intermittent generation


PHASE CHANGE–NEWSPAPER REVENUE ($M)

Source: Bloomberg L.P. Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1950 1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006

Total US newspaper ad revenue ($m)

1982 Invention of the Internet

1992 Invention of the browser

1997 Invention of the smartphone

2006 Founding of Twitter

24 years

Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving change in the energy system

[email protected]

MARKETS Renewable Energy Energy Smart Technologies Advanced Transport Gas Carbon and RECs

SERVICES Americas Service Asia Pacific Service EMEA Service Applied Research Events and Workshops

Michael Liebreich Twitter: @mliebreich

Thanks!

Documents

PHASE CHANGE AND THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM SMITH SCHOOL, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD · 2014. 12. 23. · ‘PPA price’ is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of project