P E T E R C I B O R O W S K IS E P T E M B E R 1 1 , 2 0 1 3

MCCAG REVISITED: WORK-TO-DATE

BODIES OF MCCAG-RELATED WORK: AUGUST 2012 TO PRESENT

• MCCAG Options Reanalyses

• Assessment of Reasonableness of MCCAG Option Policy Goals, e.g., E50-effective for motor fuels by 2020

• Assessment of GHG Emissions-avoided, 2005-2011

• GHG and Energy Use Forecast, 2012-2030

MCCAG OPTIONS REANALYZED

• Energy Supply (ES): ES-3, ES-5

• Residential/Commercial/Industrial: RCI-1a, RCI-4

• Transportation/Land Use: TLU-6, TLU-9, TLU-13

• Agriculture, Forestry, Solid Waste: AFW-1a, AFW-1b, AFW-3a, AFW-3b, AFW-3c, AFW-4, AFW-5a, AFW-5b, AFW-6

MCCAG EMISSIONS-AVOIDED: REASSESSED EFFECTIVENESS

MCCAG Estimate (2025) (million CO2-e tons)

Reassessment Estimate (2025) (million CO2-e tons)

Energy Supply 2.5 2.0

Residential/Commercial/Industrial

5.5 0.9

Transportation/Land Use 2.2 2.0

Agriculture/Forestry/Solid Waste 25.2 14.0

Total 35.4 18.9

% of total MCCAG Reductions 70%

GHG EMISSIONS FORECASTS

% of 2010 Inventory

Completed

Electric Power Sector 32%

Transportation 24%

Residential Sector 7%

Pending

Industrial Sector 14%

Agricultural Sector 18%

Commercial Sector 4%

Waste Management Sector 1%

MCCAG EMISSION FORECASTS

Sector MCCAG Revised

Electric Power

48.1 48.8

Transportation

42.0 29.6

Residential 11.9 8.8

total 102.5 87.2

NEXT STEPS

• Agriculture Forecast• Industrial Sector Forecast• Update and completion of emissions-avoided

analysis, 2005-2011• Update of to Electric Power, Residential and

Transportation Forecast• Remaining 15 MCCAG Options for Reanalysis• Assessment of Alternative Options to MCCAG

Options

EXTRA SLIDES

EMISSIONS-AVOIDED: EXAMPLE CALCULATIONS

Action Description

1990 baseline

Renewable Energy in-state RE development 8.5

CIP-energy efficiency CIP-related savings with retirements

4.6

2005 baseline

Prairie Island Biomass Mandate

Laurentian, District Energy, Fibrominn

0.49

E10, B5 Mandates end-use fuel displacement 0.34

RCI-4 industrial CHP -0.30

AFW-3a biomass use at ethanol facilitiies

0.02

TLU-4 reduced congestion 0.03

REASONABLENESS OF MCCAG POLICY GOALS: EXAMPLES

MCCAG 20205 Goal Revised 2025 Goal

AFW-1a no-till on 5.9 million acres

mulch till on 3.7 million acres

AFW-1b +50% N use efficiency +5% N use efficiency

AFW-3a Implicit E-50 mandate, 24 million tons stover removal

Implicit E-20 mandate, 4.3 million tons stover removal

AFW-5a 1 million acres afforested 50,000 acres afforested ($14.5/ton CO2-avoided)

RCI-4 1,000 MW new industrial CHP

300 MW new industrial CHP, 100 MW MW new commercial CHP

TLU-4 36 mpg, new cars 48.1 mpg, new cars, federal CAFE

AFW-7b 60% recycling 45 to 50% recycling