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PERUBAHAN IKLIM, HUTAN & REDD+ : STRATEGY & MODALITIES
Dr. YETTI RUSLI MSc.
- Staf Ahli bidang Lingkungan dan Perubahan Iklim
- Ketua Pokja Perubahan Iklim, KEMHUT
YR@YETTI RUSLI
KOICA-FORDA-CIFOR WORKSHOP ON REDD+Senggigi, Lombok, 21 Juni 2011
HUTAN & PERUBAHAN IKLIM
S/D CANCUN COP 16
Earth summit 1992, Kyoto Protocol (AR-CDM), RED, REDD, REDD+ : Indonesia for the world BALI COP 13 2007
Earth summit 1992, Kyoto Protocol (AR-CDM), RED, REDD, REDD+ : Indonesia for the world BALI COP 13 2007
• RED 2005, REDD+ 2007 (COP 13, Bali)
• Bali Action Plan, 1.(b).(iii):REDD after 2012, Conservation, Sustainable management of Forest , and Enhancing forest carbon stocks
• Indonesia commitment, G20 Pitchburg reduce emission by 26 up to 41%
• Copenhagen Accord REDD+• Cancun Outcome draft text AWG LCA REDD+
PERUBAHAN IKLIM DAN CARBON
HUTAN DAN CARBON
• Pohon ber fotosintesa menyerap CO2• Carbon dioxide from the atmosphere + sunlight => a chemical reaction => oxygen and glucose.
• + 50% biomasa pohon adalah carbon
33
Indonesia’s Forests (+136 mill ha.) for Today and Tomorrow
HutanKonservasi25.3 m ha.
HutanLindung30,9 m ha
HutanProduksi80.4 m ha
Community Forests
Ecosystem/Environment
Services/ Commodity
Renewable Energy(Wood pellet, Methanol-4thGenRenw En)
PERUBAHAN IKLIM & HUTANPERUBAHAN IKLIM & HUTAN
� Controversial issue since Kyoto Protocol
� AR CDM (decision 14/CP.10) is not easy
� Bali Action Plan, 1.(b).(iii):
– REDD after 2012,
– Conservation,
– Sustainable Forest Management, and
– Enhancing forest carbon stocks
� Understanding the role of forests in absorbing CO2 is crucial
� Future carbon market55
3 PERAN PENTING HUTAN DALAM PERUBAHAN IKLIM
�� FOREST C FOREST C STOCKSTOCK(Stabilization of (Stabilization of terrestrial carbon) terrestrial carbon)
�� ABILITY TO ABILITY TO ABSORBABSORBCO2 GHG & CO2 GHG & Transform into Transform into BIOMASS BIOMASS (SEQUESTRATION(SEQUESTRATION--OLD COMMITMENT OLD COMMITMENT –– ARAR--CDM)CDM)
FOREST AS A FOREST AS A SOURCESOURCE OF OF EMISSION EMISSION (REDUCING (REDUCING EMISSION FROM EMISSION FROM DEFORESTATION & DEFORESTATION & DEGRADATION)DEGRADATION)
GAS RUMAH KACA & GAS RUMAH KACA & PERUBAHAN IKLIMPERUBAHAN IKLIM
The path to avoid ∆Tavg >2°C (gold)
NICHOLAS STERN REVIEW, 2007 p.199:
GHG concentration: CO2, CH4, N2O, …….
POHON:• CARBON CYCLE• WATER CYCLE
TREES ARE THE SOLUTIONS:• ABSORBING CO2• ~ 50% trees’ biomass is a solid C/green products
GLOBAL GLOBAL WARMINGWARMING
YR@YETTI RUSLI
20 % CO2
80 % CO2
1
2
2
MEMAHAMI EMISI CO2 YG BERASAL MEMAHAMI EMISI CO2 YG BERASAL DARI HUTANDARI HUTAN
(RATIO: 20% GLOBAL, 54% INA)(RATIO: 20% GLOBAL, 54% INA)
��KebakaranKebakaran HutanHutan
�� PerambahanPerambahan, illegal logging, over cutting , illegal logging, over cutting dsbdsb
�� KabupatenKabupaten BaruBaru, , KonversiKonversi untukuntuk pembangunanpembangunan termasuktermasuk
PertanianPertanian, , KepalaKepala SawitSawit (Indonesia’s palm oil land site from forest only 4.8 (Indonesia’s palm oil land site from forest only 4.8 m ha out of 133 m ha of forest)m ha out of 133 m ha of forest)
EMISSION FROM FORESTS IS CARBON NEUTRALEMISSION FROM FORESTS IS CARBON NEUTRALYR@YETTI RUSLI
FAKTA BERBICARA:
1414
INDONESIA :2020: 26% up to 41 %
26% : 14% forestry12% non forest
ratio Indonesia (54 : 46), world 20 : 80notes
CO2 Global Emissions and Global Carbon Forests
YR@YETTI RUSLI
MENJADI PERHATIAN
MITIGATION ACTIONSMITIGATION ACTIONSJOINTLY SOLVE CO2 emission (Capture CO2)JOINTLY SOLVE CO2 emission (Capture CO2)“CCS” INDONESIA“CCS” INDONESIA
“VIOCE of FORESTS”“VIOCE of FORESTS”
Exp of Carbon capture Exp of Carbon capture and storage (CCS)and storage (CCS)
YR@YETTI RUSLI
TANTANGAN PEMAHAMAN:
Convertion vector of Tree’s biomass - CO2eq:Tree’s biomass to carbon ~ 0.5
Carbon to CO2 ~ 3.7 Biomass to CO2 ~ 1.83
EMISSION vs OR & SEQUESTRATIONS STATISTIC OF EMISSION & SEQUESTRATION
HURT THE VALUE OF NATURE SYSTEM (“akal sehat”)
Green Economy Green Economy (UNEP 2011, Towards a Green Economy)(UNEP 2011, Towards a Green Economy)
�� “Results in improved human well“Results in improved human well--being and social equity, while being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental significantly reducing environmental risk and ecological scarcities”risk and ecological scarcities”
�� “REDD+ regime may be the best “REDD+ regime may be the best current opportunity to facilitate the current opportunity to facilitate the transition to a green economy transition to a green economy forforforestry”forestry”
Continue.. Continue.. UNEP 2011, Towards a Green Economy UNEP 2011, Towards a Green Economy
�� investing 0.03% of GDP b/w 2011investing 0.03% of GDP b/w 2011--2050 to conserve forests & private 2050 to conserve forests & private investment for reforestation investment for reforestation ��>20% increase value added in forest >20% increase value added in forest industry compare to BAUindustry compare to BAU
Understanding Understanding
��Green Economy and Climate ChangeGreen Economy and Climate Change
��Forest and Climate Change:Forest and Climate Change:
–– Policy Policy StrategyStrategy
–– Development Plan andDevelopment Plan and
–– Policy Implementation ModalitiesPolicy Implementation Modalities
Continue.. Continue.. UNEP 2011, Towards a Green EconomyUNEP 2011, Towards a Green Economy
�� Forest cover (ha) 1990 2010Forest cover (ha) 1990 2010
. World Forest Area (. World Forest Area (bilbil) 4.17 ) 4.17 4.034.03
. World Planted FA (mil) 178 264. World Planted FA (mil) 178 264
�� Deforestation (mil ha/y) Deforestation (mil ha/y)
. Ann net forest loss 8.3 5.2. Ann net forest loss 8.3 5.2
. Ann deforestation 16 13. Ann deforestation 16 13
. Ann increase . Ann increase
planted forest 3.36 5 planted forest 3.36 5
FOREST & C CHANGE: FOREST & C CHANGE: the future green valuethe future green value
Major role of forest on climate change:Major role of forest on climate change:
1.1. EMISSION (the world focus so far)EMISSION (the world focus so far)
2.2. SEQUESTRATIONS (old commitment but SEQUESTRATIONS (old commitment but important)important)
3.3. STOCK of SOLID CARBON (IGNORING STOCK of SOLID CARBON (IGNORING FACTS/World data) FACTS/World data)
�� If concern only about emission from forest If concern only about emission from forest means HURTING THE VALUE OF NATURE means HURTING THE VALUE OF NATURE SYSTEM (“SYSTEM (“tidaktidak sesuaisesuai dg dg akalakal sehatsehat”), ”), theory, text book an facts.theory, text book an facts.
1.87
3.51
1.08 1.171.37
2.83
0.780.76
0.500.68
0.300.41
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Seluruh Indonesia Di dalam Kawasan Hutan Di luar Kawasan Hutan (APL)
Annual Rate of
Deforestasi1990-1996 1997-2000 2001-2003 2004-2006
2005 -2007
FAO
Indonesia 1.87 3.51 1.08 1.17 0,5
Within Forest Area 1.37 2.83 0.78 0.76 -
Outside Forest Area 0.50 0.68 0.30 0.41 -
1990-1996 1997-2000 2001-2003 2004-2006
Mill
ha/
year
Outside Forest AreaIndonesia Within Forest Area
facts:
YR@YETTI RUSLI
R E D D P L U S --- new AR CDM ?
+ 20% CO2+ 20% CO2FROM DEFOR/FROM DEFOR/
LULUCFLULUCF
+ 80% CO2 EMIISSION FROM FOSIL FUEL
Reducing emissions : Clean TechnologyClean energy
Markets (complience, voluntary)
2424
F o r e s t + c a r b o n
REDD
LOCAL, NATIONAL, GLOBAL
FOREST CARBON, CLIMATE CHANGE (QUADRAN OF //STARTER KITSTARTER KIT)
Trees as a
remedy/cure for CO2
in the atmosphere
(ABSORBING CO2
COOLING DOWN
THE EARTH)
Challenge:
YR@YETTI RUSLI
UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC OF UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE:CLIMATE CHANGE: FOREST RELATEDFOREST RELATED
�� SCHEME AND VALUE OF CARBON FORESTS (Sequestration, SCHEME AND VALUE OF CARBON FORESTS (Sequestration, Stocks, Stocks, --Emission)Emission)
�� TRANSFER PRICE MECHANISM (market based), Carbon TRANSFER PRICE MECHANISM (market based), Carbon Offset… Offset…
�� EliaschEliasch Review 2008: Review 2008: have to include forests carbon in have to include forests carbon in the market for the market for ambitiuosambitiuos overall emission targetoverall emission target
�� WHAT IS ABATEMENT COST, COST CURVE, longWHAT IS ABATEMENT COST, COST CURVE, long--term, global term, global /regional supply/regional supply--demanddemand
$ /ton CO2
or CO2eq
∑ Q CO2 or CO2 eq
$ /ton CO2
or CO2eq
∑ Q CO2 or CO2 eq
Carbon global supply & demand
Si
Ddx
Ddy
DglbSi
Sglb
Alternative (Financing option)Alternative (Financing option)::80 %
Emission20 %
Emission
INDONESIACDM+ CONSERVATION,
SFM, ENRICH C STOCK
REDD plus
after 2012
Market Funding !!Investment Fund !! Investment !!
Gov Spending Gov Spending
Market for private investment
Challenge:
YR@YETTI RUSLI
1. Funding !! 1. Funding !!
PROJECTPROJECT
2. INVESTMENT FUND2. INVESTMENT FUND
3. INVESTMENT3. INVESTMENT
MARKETMARKET
FINANCING MECHANISM should be for ALL TYPE OF FORESTS
(an OPTION)
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
PRIVATEPRIVATE
GOVERNMENTGOVERNMENT
Challenge:
INDONESIA SHOULD WELCOME ALL POSSIBILITIES ..
- Indonesia has modalities for all activities for all type of forests
from conventional forestry program (SFM, Conservation, community etc), AR CDM, REDD, REDD+ (REDD, Conservation, enhancing c stock, SFM), Up to new programs within forest and climate change (Wood Pellet, Wood Methanol)
- Carbon merupakan komoditi ygdiperdagangkan
- Skema untuk optimum benefit
YR@YETTI RUSLI
SHOULD BE THE CHANGING
OF GLOBAL DEMANDS AND EXPECTATION FROM FORESTS
(“REPACKAGING SFM AND IMPROVING”)
FINANCIAL SCHEME SHOULD GIVE BENEFITS TO THE COUNTRY AND THE WORLD GREEN ECONOMY
Challenge:
YR@YETTI RUSLI
Indonesia’s Forests (+136 mill ha.) for Today and Tomorrow
Conservation Forests
25.3 m ha.
Protected Forests
30,9 m ha
Production Forests
80.4 m ha
Community Forests
Ecosystem/Environment
Services/ Commodity
Renewable Energy(Wood pellet, Methanol-4thGenRenw En)
……..
