Perspectivesongasmarketdevelopmentsforsustainabledevelopmentandenergytransitions

GECFMonthlyGasLecture|Doha |5April|2017

Dr Sun XianshengSecretary General, IEF Riyadh

Flow

1. Long-termIEAandOPECoutlooks

2. Overcominguncertaintiesthroughdialogue

3. KeyIEFInitiatives

WorldPrimaryEnergyFuelSharesin2014andOutlookfor2040

TheIEA andOPEC showthatgassharesvarybetween24%and27%in2040

WorldLiquidsDemandProjectionsinVariousScenarios(mb/d)

Allscenariosshowgrowinguncertaintypost2020butOPEC ReferencecaseandIEA NewPoliciesScenariosareverysimilar

Producersseegasdemandgrow,consumersseeaplateauinthelate2020s

WorldGasDemandProjectionsinVariousScenarios(bcm - mboe/d)

IEAWEO2016Figure4.2page166 OPECWOO2016Figure8.4page332

Flow

1. Long-termIEAandOPECoutlooks

2. Overcominguncertaintiesthroughdialogue

3. KeyIEFInitiatives

NewTrends,andDevelopments

1. U.S.– ShaleOil– ShaleGas– LNG

2. PriceBenchmarks– HH– NBP– JCC

3. Buyer’sMarket– FlexibleShort-TermArrangements– Shiftsinpricebenchmarks– Destinationrestrictions

Flow

1. Long-termIEAandOPECoutlooks

2. Overcominguncertaintiesthroughdialogue

3. KeyIEFInitiatives

UpcomingIEFInitiativesandMinistersMeetings

1. 15th RegionalJODITrainingWorkshopforAfricaandthe3rd IEF-OFIDSymposiumonEnergyPoverty11-13April2017|Tunis,Tunisia

2. 2nd IEFSymposiumonHumanResourceManagementintheEnergyIndustry:Implicationsofa NewMarketEnvironmentandEnergyTransition17-18May2017|Manama,Bahrain

3. 1st AsianEnergyEfficiencyConferenceandExposition,30October-2November2017|RiyadhSaudiArabia

4. 7th AsianMinisterialEnergyRoundtable,GlobalEnergyMarketsinTransition:Fromvisiontoaction,1-3November2017|BangkokThailand