Perspectives on Future of Nuclear Energy in Central Europe · • Nuclear energy seems to be an relevant option for Central Europe (historical experiences). • Beyond its contribution

Perspectives on Future of Nuclear Energy in Central Europe

The role of civil society in the European Energy Union – 27 October 2016

Authors: Branislav Vrban, Štefan Čerba, Jakub Lüley, Ján Haščík

European Economic and Social Committee Group III – Various Interests

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The connection between electricity and human development

Taken from S. Benka, Physics Today (April 2002), pg 39 and adapted from Livermoore National Laboratory rep. no UCRL-ID-140773.

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Energy consumption per capita by country, 2010

• Approximately 70% of world population face permanent energy deficit

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Position in the list of countries by Energy and Electricity consumption per capita

• The energy consumption rate differs between Central EU countries

55th/60th

32nd/35th

42nd/46th

61st/62th

33rd/21th

SOURCE: data.world.bank.org - 2013; The total number of countries in the list is 187.

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Share of hydro energy net generation in 2015

SOURCE: ENTSOE – Electricity in Europe 2015

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Share of nuclear energy net generation in 2015


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Share of fossil energy net generation in 2015


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Share of consumption covered by renewable sources


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Exchange balances in 2015


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Environmental impact of electricity generation

• Smog and other pollution from fossil fuel burning, already a major health hazard to millions of people. • Ozone, sulfur dioxide, NO2 and particulate matter are

produced. • Sulfur and nitrogen oxides contribute to smog and acid

rain. • Fossil fuels, particularly coal, also contain

dilute radioactive material which is then released into the environment.

• Concentrations of CO2, methane and other greenhouse gases in

the atmosphere are rising.


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Mortality from ambient air pollution

• „In the year 2012, ambient air pollution was responsible for 7 million deaths, representing 12.5% of the total deaths.“

• „Worldwide, ambient air pollution is estimated to cause about 16% of the lung cancer deaths, 11% of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) deaths, more than 20% of ischemic heart disease and stroke, and about 13% of respiratory infection deaths.“

SOURCE: World Health Organization 2014 – Global Health Observatory (GHO) data

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Mortality from ambient air pollution

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Climate change

• The greenhouse effect • Carbon dioxide is transparent to the Sun’s light, but absorbs

and re-radiates the heat energy emitted by the Earth • Theory is not new, developing since 1824 (J. Fourier)

• Global warming • The re-radiated heat warms the Earth until the net energy

influx and output are balanced • Without natural greenhouse effect average global

temperatures would be about 33°C colder

SOURCE: "NASA: Climate Forcings and Global Warming". January 14, 2009.

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Climate change

• Global warming is causing climate patterns to change • Statement on climate change from 18 scientific associations:

"Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate

change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the

primary driver." (2009)

• World temperatures could rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 °C during the 21st century: • Sea levels could rise by 18 to 59 cm • There will be more frequent warm spells, heat waves,

droughts, heavy rainfalls, tropical cyclones and extreme high tides

SOURCE: http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

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Consequences for Europe

• Southern and central Europe are seeing more frequent heat waves, forest fires and droughts.

• The Mediterranean area is becoming drier, making it even more vulnerable to drought and wildfires.

• Northern Europe is getting significantly wetter, and winter floods could become common.

• Urban areas, where 4 out of 5 Europeans now live, are exposed to heat waves, flooding or rising sea levels, but are often ill-equipped for adapting to climate change.

• Damage to property and infrastructure and to human health imposes heavy costs on society and the economy

SOURCE: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/change/consequences/index_en.htm/

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The conclusions of the climate agreement – COP21

• The Paris Agreement adopted on December 12 last year provides a framework for combating global warming worldwide, with the key objective of limiting the rise in global temperature to below 2°C.

• the prime objective of containing global temperature increase to below 2°C • calls for the most energetic efforts to be made to contain

the rise to 1.5°C

• In terms of reduction, the ‘global emissions ceiling’ must be reached ‘in the shortest-possible time’,

SOURCE: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/change/consequences/index_en.htm/

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Greenhouse gas emissions in Central Europe

SOURCE: Eurostat (EEA)

Energy

Industrial processes and productuseAgriculture

The absolute contributions

CZ

HU

AU

PL

SK

1. Austria 2. Czech Republic

3. Hungary

4. Poland

5. Slovakia 6. Central EU

The relative greenhouse gas emissions by source sector

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Greenhouse gas emissions by energy source

SOURCE: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL/FS-6A20-57187; 2014

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Example of weekly generation profile

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Nuclear power plants and research reactors

Bohunice V2-1 Bohunice V2-2

Mochovce 1 Mochovce 2 Mochovce 3&4

Paks 1 Paks 2 Paks 3 Paks 4 Paks 5&6

BRR KFK AEKI BUTE

The TRIGA Mark-II

Maria reactor

LR- 0 LVR-15 VR-1

Dukovany 1 Dukovany 2 Dukovany 3 Dukovany 4 Temelin 1

Temelin 2

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Group III – Various Interests

Gross domestic expenditure on R&D - % of GDP

• The nuclear safety is not sustainable without real R&D activities.

• New and improved nuclear power plant designs under development have the potential to be more fuel efficient, cost less to build and be inherently safer.

• e.g. the passive safety features do not require electrical power, and because large safety margins are being factored into the design, they do not require operational intervention so that accidents could be avoided.

• The relevant criterion for assessing the state of R&D is the total expenditure invested in R&D.

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Gross domestic expenditure on R&D - % of GDP

2%

0.94%

1.37% 2.99%

0.89%

SOURCE: Eurostat, data from 2014

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The status of nuclear related education

• The sustainable education and training programs are fundamental to safety.

• The first generation of senior nuclear experts started to retire. • This leads to an increased risk of loss of valuable knowledge for

the nuclear community. • The government is responsible for the policy and promotion,

planning of nuclear power, and regulation and control. • The fewer comprehensive, high-quality nuclear technology

programs exist at universities than before. • The ability of universities to attract top-quality students to

those programs, meet future staffing requirements, and conduct leading-edge research is becoming seriously compromised.

SOURCE: Eurostat, data from 2014

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Conclusions • Electricity is something that people cannot live without and

the electricity consumption is strongly related to the human development level.

• We can expect a gradual increase in electricity consumption in Central Europe (e.g. electric cars).

• Environmental impact of electricity generation is significant.

• To mitigate air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions the optimal state dependent mix of energy sources is needed. • In general fossil sources should be mitigated as reasonably

achievable.

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Conclusions • Nuclear energy seems to be an relevant option for Central Europe (historical experiences).

• Beyond its contribution to reducing GHG emissions, nuclear

power can also enhance energy supply security.

• The nuclear option is not short-term commitment, it is state strategic decision, therefore long term cost efficiency is hard to estimate.

• To ensure nuclear safety, more focus should be given to R&D projects and education in nuclear related sciences.

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Thank you for your attention

Documents

Perspectives on Future of Nuclear Energy in Central Europe · • Nuclear energy seems to be an relevant option for Central Europe (historical experiences). • Beyond its contribution