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1
Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity
Prepared for:Workshop: “Growing the North American Natural Gas Production Platform”Strategies for Addressing Infrastructure Constraints, Regulatory Risks and Trade Disputes
Hosted by:EPRINC
Prepared By: Vello Kuuskraa, PresidentAdvanced Resources International, Inc.
Willard Hotel, Washington, DCApril 19, 2018
Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity
| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com
2
Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity
Introduction
| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com
The U.S. has large natural gas resources that have low-to-moderate “break-even” costs.* These resources include:
§ Over 2,700 Tcf of proved plus technically recoverable unconventional gas resources (shale gas, tight gas and CBM), including significant volumes of associated gas from “tight oil”.
§ Over 400 Tcf of remaining on-shore (L-48) conventional gas reserves and resources, with much of this resource located in smaller, higher-cost-to-develop fields.
§ Nearly 200 Tcf of associated gas reserves and resources in deepwater Gulf of Mexico oil fields, with additional reserves and resources in Alaska.
With continuing gains in well performance and the “discovery” of new shale and “tight oil” plays, our understanding of the size of the ultimate U.S. natural gas resource base has increased steadily in the past two decades and will continue to do so in the future.*We define “break-even” costs as full-cycle finding and development costs with a 15% (before tax) return on investment.
3
Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity
2016 2017 2018 (e)
(Bcfd) (Bcfd) (Bcfd)
Unconventional Gas
▪ Shale Gas 42 45 52
▪ Tight Gas 15 14 13
▪ CBM 3 3 3
Total 60 62 68
Conventional Gas* 12 12 12
Total 72 74 80JAF2018_025.XLS
Status of U.S. Natural Gas Production
After declining to 72 Bcfd (dry) in 2016, natural gas production increased to 74 Bcfd in 2017. With a 4Q 2017 natural gas production rate of 76 Bcfd (dry), we look for natural gas production to have a second year of strong growth, averaging 80 Bcfd in 2018. Shale gas increases its role as the dominant source of natural gas production and growth.
| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com
U.S. Natural Gas Production (Dry)U.S. Natural Gas Production (Dry)
Source: EIA; Advanced Resources Int. Shale Gas Database, 2014.*Includes L-48 onshore, offshore and Alaska.
4
Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity
Outlook for U.S. Natural Gas Production
| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com
Led by significant increases from shales and associated gas from “tight oil”, we project domestic natural gas will reach 100 Bcfd of “production capacity” by 2025.
§ Production from Appalachian Basin’s Marcellus and Utica Shales, currently at 26 Bcfd, will provide about a third of total natural gas production by 2025.
§ Associated gas from “tight oil” (including shale oil and tight sands oil), currently at 17 Bcfd, will provide about a quarter of total natural gas production by 2025.
§ Production from the Haynesville Shale, after halting its past spectacular decline, is on the rise and is expected to be a major supply source for the next round of LNG plants.
§ Emerging shale and tight gas plays, such as the Anadarko Basin’s Stack/Scoop and the DJ Basin’s sands and shales, will more then counter declines in the pioneering Antrim, Barnett, and Fayetteville shales.
§ Active development of already discovered deepwater oil fields along with new discoveries will enable the Offshore Gulf of Mexico grow its associated gas production.
5
Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity
1. Associated Gas
Permian 264 398 445Eagle Ford 46 70 75
Williston 33 47 55Cana Woodford* 37 72 65
D-J Niobrara 25 26 24Total 405 613 664
Marcellus 39 48 55Haynesville 27 46 52
Utica 20 28 25Other** 27 30 27 *
Total 113 152 159JAF2018_025.XLS
April 2018
2. Shale Gas
Selected Basins/Plays
End of 2016 End of 2017
Active Rig Count: Selected Basins
*Does not include Kingfisher Co., Oklahoma.**Includes Barnett (3), Fayetteville (1), Ardmore/Arkoma (9), Miss Lime (2) and Granite Wash (12) in April, 2018.
Changes in Rig Counts Help Identify Growing Shale/Associated Gas Basins
| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com
Associated Gas. Rig utilization in five key “tight oil” plays (containing associated gas) has climbed from 613 at the end of 2017 to 664 today. The Permian with an increase of 47 rigs account for most of the gain.
Shale Gas. Rig utilization in other shale gas plays has rebounded from 152 at end of 2017 to 159 today. The Marcellus and Haynesville account for two-thirds of the shale gas rig fleet.
6
Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity
Appalachian Basin’s Shale Gas Production Surges
| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com
The Appalachian Basin has some of the lowest cost (at the wellhead) domestic shale gas resources.
Completion of Rover Phase I, the Leach Express, and the Access pipelines (among others) enabled natural gas production and delivery from the Appalachian Basin to increase by 2 Bcfd in 2017. Completion of additional pipelines (Rover Phase 2, SW Louisiana, and others) will support 3 Bcfd of natural gas production growth from Appalachian Basin in 2018.
However, access to regional markets and need to complete long distance pipelines to the Gulf will constrain near-term production.
Appalachian Basin’s Shale Gas Production (Dry)2016 2017 2018(Bcfd) (Bcfd) (Bcfd)
Marcellus 16.4 17.7 20.0Utica 3.8 4.5 5.5Other 0.4 0.5 0.5Total 20.6 22.7 26.0
JAF2018_025.XLS
Shale Play
7
Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity
2016 2017 2018
Bakken 1.1 1.2 1.3Eagle Ford* 4.0 3.5 3.5Permian (TX / NM) 3.4 4.2 6.0Anadarko 2.3 2.5 3.3Denver 1.3 1.7 2.2Other 0.7 0.9 0.9
Total 12.8 14.0 17.2
Subtotal Shale 9.3 10.5 13.6
"Tight Oil" Play
Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd)
JAF2018_025.XLS
Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”
| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com
Associated gas from “tight oil” - - the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian Stack/ Scoop, Denver’s Niobrara (among others) - - has provided about half of the recent increases in natural gas supplies.
§ With higher oil prices, associated gas production from “tight oil” increased notably in 2017 and will increase further in 2018.
§ Because associated gas from “tight oil” is a by-product of oil production, at strong oil prices production of associated gas becomes essentially a “free good.”
*The Eagle Ford Shale and the STACK/SCOOP also contains non-associated gas plays not dependent on “tight oil” development or economics.
8
Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity
Natural gas production from the Permian Basin provided 8.1 Bcfd (wet) of natural gas production in 2017, up from 2016. We project the Permian will provide 10 Bcfd in 2018.
§ Associated gas (wet) from “tight oil” of 5.7 Bcfd in 2017, increasing to 7.8 Bcfd in 2018, is the engine of production growth in the Permian Basin.*
§ The “discovery” of “Alpine High” in the Delaware Basin portion of the Permian Basin introduces a major new wet gas play.
Growth of Permian Basin’s Wet Natural Gas Production
| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com
*Dry associated natural gas production from “tight oil” would be approximately 25% lower, estimated at 4.2 Bcfdin 2017 and 6.0 Bcfd in 2018.
9
Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity
A major question governing the outlook for natural gas production is: To what extent will future natural gas “break-even” costs encourage or stymie gas demand and competitively priced LNG exports?
Improvements in well productivities and development efficiencies have reduced today’s “break-even” costs for shale gas.
Will more intensive well completion practices (longer laterals, more frac stages, and higher proppant volumes) improve well productivity sufficiently to counter increases in oil field service costs?
To examine this question, we selected the “core” area of the Haynesville Shale to look at future “break-even” costs.
Outlook for Future Shale Gas “Break-Even” Costs
| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com
10
Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity
Our shale gas model uses well performance and cost adjustment factors to link changes in development practices and oil field service costs to future “break-even” costs.
Use of more frac stages (33), higher proppant volumes (2,500 lbs/ft), and somewhat longer laterals (8,500 ft) will improve Haynesville Shale Play #1’s well productivity from 18.4 Bcf in 2017 to 21.2 Bcf in 2025.
Improving well performance and greater drilling efficiencies will help counter increases in service costs as well as the costs of more intensive development, limiting Year 2025 “break-even” costs to $2.60/Mcf compared to $2.50/Mcf in 2017.
Haynesville Shale Core Area “Break-Even” Costs
| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com
Actual Projected2017 2025
(@ $50/B) (@$65/B)
7,400 8,500
30 21
$15,000 $23,000
$3,400 $3,710
Frac Stages 25 33
Frac Cost ($/Stage) $60,000 $79,000
$5,100 $6,430
$8,500 $10,140
18.4 21.2
$2.50 $2.60 JAF2018_025.XLS
Total Well Drilling Costs ($M)
Lateral Length
1. Well Drilling
Days to Drill
Rig Day-Rate ($/day)
"Break-Even" Costs ($/Net Mcf)
2. Well Completion
Total Completion Costs ($000)
Total Well D&C Cost ($000)
Gross EUR/Well (Bcf)
11
Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity
Closing Comments
| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com
The domestic natural gas resource base is large and yet to be fully defined.
Increases in well productivities and development efficiencies will counter increases in oil field service costs, helping maintain domestic natural gas as a low-to-moderate cost resource.
Canadian natural gas resources, led by the Montney Resource Play (Canada’s Marcellus), further support a positive outlook for North American natural gas supplies.
With the change in the natural gas paradigm from “scarcity to plenty”, the emphasis now shifts to “productive capacity” and the need for transportation infrastructure and new markets.
12
Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity
AdvancedResourcesInternationalwww.adv-res.com
Office LocationsWashington, DC4501 Fairfax Drive, Suite 910Arlington, VA 22203Phone: (703) 528-8420
Houston, TX11931 Wickchester Ln., Suite 200 Houston, TX 77043-4574 Phone: (281) 558-9200
Knoxville, TN 1210 Kenesaw Ave. Suite 1210A Knoxville, TN 37919-7736
| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com
Permian Basin
Production and Looming
IssuesT
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SID
EN
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DE
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8
1©
PETRON
ERDS LLC | W
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ERDS.CO
M | 970-329-1645
© PETRO
NERD
S LLC | WW
W.PETRO
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S.COM
| 970-329-1645 2
Source: Extraction rig, September 2017
PetroNerd:
Podcasts
© PETRO
NERD
S LLC | WW
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S.COM
| 970-329-1645 3
“Completion Design Changes
and the Impact of U
S Shale Well Productivity”
© PETRO
NERD
S LLC | WW
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S.COM
| 970-329-1645 4
http://ww
w.petronerds.com
/wp-
content/uploads/2017/11/OIES-PetroN
erds-Com
pletion-Design-and-Productivity-2017.pdf
Spud to Total Depth in Less than Three Days
5©
PETRON
ERDS LLC | W
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M | 970-329-1645
Extraction Oil and Gas, Septem
ber 2017
Permian Basin Production
© PETRO
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| 970-329-1645 6
- 2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
1/1/2000
6/1/2000
11/1/2000
4/1/2001
9/1/2001
2/1/2002
7/1/2002
12/1/2002
5/1/2003
10/1/2003
3/1/2004
8/1/2004
1/1/2005
6/1/2005
11/1/2005
4/1/2006
9/1/2006
2/1/2007
7/1/2007
12/1/2007
5/1/2008
10/1/2008
3/1/2009
8/1/2009
1/1/2010
6/1/2010
11/1/2010
4/1/2011
9/1/2011
2/1/2012
7/1/2012
12/1/2012
5/1/2013
10/1/2013
3/1/2014
8/1/2014
1/1/2015
6/1/2015
11/1/2015
4/1/2016
9/1/2016
2/1/2017
7/1/2017
12/1/2017
Water – Barrels Per Day
Liquid – Barrels Per Day/ Gas – mcd/d
Total Liquid ProductionTotal Gas Production
Total Water Production
Water –
15 mbd
Oil –
2.9 mbd
GAS –9 plus Bcf/d
Permian Problem
sW
ith crude oil comes associated natural gas and
produced water
Gassy reservoirs can help drive oil production –at
least in the Permian’s case.
It isn’t just the Permian that is the problem
…..gas
EVERYWHERE
Ultra Petroleum –
Pinedale, Wyom
ing
High intensity completions have done w
onders for oil production and even m
ore for gas production (IPs and w
ell productivity)M
arcellus
© PETRO
NERD
SLLC | W
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.PETRON
ERDS.CO
M | 970-329-1645
7
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
02
46
810
1214
1618
2022
2426
2830
3234
3638
4042
4446
4850
52
mcf/d
Month
Marcellus Reservoir Decline Curve
20132014
20152016
2017
11,300 mcf/d
Source: PetroNerds, D
rillingInfodata
Permian Basin G
eology and Stratigraphy
© PETRO
NERD
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| 970-329-1645 8
Source: Concho Resources 2ndQ
uarter 2013 Investor PresentationSource: PER
MIAN
BASIN PR
OVIN
CE (044) By M
ahlon M. Ball
The Permian hosts a vast am
ount of stacked payzonesthat are actively being drilled and further delineated for the best spacing and com
pletion plans.
Still Early in the Gam
eThis is a highly layered m
ix of conventional and unconventional reservoirs. Intense layeringInterbedded shales, sandstones, and carbonates
The Permian Basin has a trem
endous amount of potential in term
s of stacked pay, but successfully developing these stacked payzonesw
ill take a lot of w
ork and a lot of capital. Stringent leasing requirem
ents in the Permian Basin often prevent optim
al asset delineationLand rush, W
all Street push, and high acreage costs N
ow operators are trying to delineate, develop, and m
aintain leasing requirements all at the sam
e tim
eCost inflation also causing problem
s with soo
much activity in the Perm
ian Local sand etc.
Optim
al spacing and completion design (frac) is key
Still early in this ball game
InventoryW
ell density, parent child problems, all com
ing into focus
© PETRO
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| 970-329-1645 9
Source: Diamondback and Cim
arex April 2018 Investor Presentations
Pioneer –Then and N
ow
© PETRO
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| 970-329-1645 10
Source: Pioneer Natural Resources O
ct 2013 Investor PresentationSource: Pioneer N
atural Resources April 2018 Investor Presentation
Horizontal Liquid Production
© PETRO
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| 970-329-1645 11
- 20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1/1/2000
6/1/2000
11/1/2000
4/1/2001
9/1/2001
2/1/2002
7/1/2002
12/1/2002
5/1/2003
10/1/2003
3/1/2004
8/1/2004
1/1/2005
6/1/2005
11/1/2005
4/1/2006
9/1/2006
2/1/2007
7/1/2007
12/1/2007
5/1/2008
10/1/2008
3/1/2009
8/1/2009
1/1/2010
6/1/2010
11/1/2010
4/1/2011
9/1/2011
2/1/2012
7/1/2012
12/1/2012
5/1/2013
10/1/2013
3/1/2014
8/1/2014
1/1/2015
6/1/2015
11/1/2015
4/1/2016
9/1/2016
2/1/2017
7/1/2017
12/1/2017
Well Count
Barrels Per Day
Horizontal Well Count
Vertical Well Count
Total Liquid ProductionHorizontal Liquid Production
Vertical Liquid Production
Source: PetroNerds, D
rillingInfodata
Associated Gas and Produced W
ater
12©
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- 1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1/1/20002/1/20013/1/20024/1/20035/1/20046/1/20057/1/20068/1/20079/1/2008
10/1/200911/1/201012/1/2011
1/1/20132/1/20143/1/20154/1/20165/1/2017
GAS - mcf/d
Liquid – Barrels Per Day
GAS -Horizontal vs. Vertical
Horizontal Liquid ProductionVertical Liquid Production
Horizontal Gas ProductionVertical Gas Production
- 2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1/1/20002/1/20013/1/20024/1/20035/1/20046/1/20057/1/20068/1/20079/1/2008
10/1/200911/1/201012/1/2011
1/1/20132/1/20143/1/20154/1/20165/1/2017
Barrels Per Day WATER
Barrels Per Day OIL
WATER –
Horizontal vs. Vertical
Horizontal Liquid ProductionVertical Liquid Production
Horizontal Water Production
Vertical Water Production
10 mbd
7 Bcf/d
Source: PetroNerds, D
rillingInfodata
Gas to O
il Ratio in the Permian Basin
© PETRO
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| 970-329-1645 13
Source: PetroNerds, D
rillingInfodata
API Gravity in the Perm
ian Basin
© PETRO
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Source: PetroNerds, D
rillingInfodata
Production by API Gravity
© PETRO
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0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1/1/2010
3/1/2010
5/1/2010
7/1/2010
9/1/2010
11/1/2010
1/1/2011
3/1/2011
5/1/2011
7/1/2011
9/1/2011
11/1/2011
1/1/2012
3/1/2012
5/1/2012
7/1/2012
9/1/2012
11/1/2012
1/1/2013
3/1/2013
5/1/2013
7/1/2013
9/1/2013
11/1/2013
1/1/2014
3/1/2014
5/1/2014
7/1/2014
9/1/2014
11/1/2014
1/1/2015
3/1/2015
5/1/2015
7/1/2015
9/1/2015
11/1/2015
1/1/2016
3/1/2016
5/1/2016
7/1/2016
9/1/2016
11/1/2016
1/1/2017
3/1/2017
5/1/2017
7/1/2017
9/1/2017
11/1/2017
1/1/2018
Barrels Per Day
0-2525-35
35-4040-45
45-5050+
Source: PetroNerds, D
rillingInfodata
Permian Basin Decline Curve
© PETRO
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| 970-329-1645 16
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
01
23
45
67
89
10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152
BARRELS PER DAY
MO
NTH
20132014
20152016
2017
# of Wells Included in
Month 1
20131,154
20141,656
20151,838
20161,697
20172,604
Source: PetroNerds, D
rillingInfodata
Measuring Productivity
17©
PETRON
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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
1/1/08
8/1/08
3/1/09
10/1/09
5/1/10
12/1/10
7/1/11
2/1/12
9/1/12
4/1/13
11/1/13
6/1/14
1/1/15
8/1/15
3/1/16
10/1/16
5/1/17
BARRELS PER FOOT
First 6 Month Cum
ulative Production Per Lateral Foot
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1/1/08
9/1/08
5/1/09
1/1/10
9/1/10
5/1/11
1/1/12
9/1/12
5/1/13
1/1/14
9/1/14
5/1/15
1/1/16
9/1/16
5/1/17
FEET
Average Lateral Length
Source: PetroNerds, D
rillingInfodata
Bone Spring Reservoir Decline Curve
© PETRO
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-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
01
23
45
67
89
10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152
BARRELS PER DAY
MO
NTH
20132014
20152016
2017
Source: PetroNerds, D
rillingInfodata
Top Permian Basin O
perators by Production
OperatorDaily Liquids b/d
Daily Gas mcf/d
1O
CCIDENTAL ENERGY COM
PANYINC.276,024
556,347 2
PIONEER NATURAL RESO
URCES COM
PANY210,694
461,204 3
CONCHO
RESOURCES INC.
197,709 659,170
4EO
G RESOURCES INCO
RPORATED
131,031 407,233
5APACHE CO
RPORATIO
N102,584
477,368 6
EXXON M
OBIL CO
RPORATIO
N91,408
285,160 7
ANADARKO E&
P ONSHO
RE LLC88,790
295,583 8
DIAMO
NDBACK E&P LLC
83,932 123,888
9CHEVRO
N U.S.A. INC.82,071
397,068 10
ENCANA CORPO
RATION
72,643 157,580
11PARSLEY ENERGY O
PERATIONS LLC
71,987 184,253
12ENERGEN CO
RPORATIO
N68,566
234,231 13
CIMAREX ENERGY CO
MPANY
64,035 477,567
14KINDER M
ORGAN INCO
RPORATED
51,368 158,186
15RSP PERM
IAN LLC49,326
104,704 16
MEW
BOURNE HO
LDINGS INC48,960
202,757 17
RD SHELL47,638
117,148 18
DEVON ENERGY CO
RPORATIO
N45,105
177,719 19
SURGE OPERATING LLC
44,011 42,721
20SM
ENERGY COM
PANY40,563
73,676 21
LAREDO PETRO
LEUM INC.
37,173 214,359
22CENTENNIAL RESO
URCE PRODUCTIO
N LLC35,086
81,964 23
RKI EXPLORATIO
N & PRO
DUCTION LLC
35,030 185,845
24JAGGED PEAK ENERGY LLC
30,546 50,148
25ENDEAVO
R ENERGY RESOURCES LP
30,464 63,261
© PETRO
NERD
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Source: PetroN
erds, D
rillingInfodata
Why Everyone N
ow Cares
about “Basis Swaps”
Operators can protect them
selves against capacity constraints for both oil and gas through outright derivative hedges as w
ell as basis sw
aps.
Flurry of investor concerns about capacity constraints.
© PETRO
NERD
S LLC | WW
W.PETRO
NERD
S.COM
| 970-329-1645 20
Midland Basis Sw
aps: Q4 2016 vs Q
4 2017
© PETRO
NERD
S LLC | WW
W.PETRO
NERD
S.COM
| 970-329-1645 21
Source: PetroNerds, H
edgeAware. Survey of 41 publicly traded E&
Ps.
Natural G
as: A Role for
Public Lands?
The Institute for Energy Research
Tom Pyle, President —
@Tom
JPyle
Natural G
as Resources
�We have m
ore gas than we
know w
hat to do with.
�1980 DO
E estimate: U
.S. had 35 years’ w
orth of natural gas.�Today, 37 years later, D
OE
estimate: 100 years.
Shale Revolution
�The Shale Revolution
changed everything�Technology, private and state lands, property rights�50 percent surge in production�Price cut in half
What role have
federal lands played?
What role have
federal lands played?
Federal Onshore G
as Production Volum
e (mcf)
Federal Offshore G
as Production Volum
e (mcf)
Why the
Production G
ap?
Private Land O
wnership
Permitting:
Federal vs. State
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
Average W
ait in Days
This trend didn’t begin w
ith the O
bama
Adm
inistration
What are w
e leaving on the table?
IER Study:
Economic
Benefits of
Federal Lands Production
What’s the proper
perspective on the role of public land?
Solutions
�Divestm
ent
�State Managem
ent
•Stream
line Permitting Process
•A
ccurate Inventory of Resource B
ase
•R
evenue Sharing with States
"It's tough to make
predictions, especially about the future…
"
…but there w
ill always
be a role for public lands. Tom
Pyle —@
TomJPyle
instituteforenergyresearch.org
Ad
rian Reed SV
P Strategy and
Risk Tellurian Inc.
April 2018
Importance of Infrastructure
for LNG
Export
Cautionary statem
ents
The information in this presentation includes “forw
ard-looking statements” w
ithin the meaning of
Section 27A of the Securities A
ct of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange
Act of 1934, as am
ended. All statem
ents other than statements of historical fact are forw
ard-looking statem
ents. The words “anticipate,” “assum
e,” “believe,” “budget,” “estimate,” “expect,”
“forecast,” “initial,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “potential,” “project,” “should,” “w
ill,” “would,” and
similar expressions are intended to identify forw
ard-looking statements. The forw
ard-looking statem
ents in this presentation relate to, among other things, anticipated supply, dem
and and other factors that m
ay affect the LNG
industry and Driftw
ood Holdings, including the financing of D
riftwood Holdings.
Our forw
ard-looking statements are based on assum
ptions and analyses made by us in light of our
experience and our perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developm
ents, and other factors that we believe are appropriate under the circum
stances. These statem
ents are subject to numerous know
n and unknown risks and uncertainties, w
hich may cause
actual results to be materially different from
any future results or performance expressed or im
plied by the forw
ard-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include those described in the “Risk
Factors” section of our Annual Report on Form
10-K for the year ended Decem
ber 31, 2017 filed with
the Securities and Exchange Com
mission (the “SEC
”) on March 15, 2018 and other filings w
ith the SEC
, which are incorporated by reference in this presentation. M
any of the forward-looking
statements in this presentation relate to events or developm
ents anticipated to occur numerous
years in the future, which increases the likelihood that actual results w
ill differ materially from
those indicated in such forw
ard-looking statements.
The forward-looking statem
ents made in or in connection w
ith this presentation speak only as of the date hereof. A
lthough we m
ay from tim
e to time voluntarily update our prior forw
ard-looking statem
ents, we disclaim
any comm
itment to do so except as required by securities law
s.
Reserves and resources
Estimates of non-proved reserves and resources are based on m
ore limited inform
ation, and are subject to significantly greater risk of not being produced, than are estim
ates of proved reserves.
Forward
looking statements
Discla
imer
344
49 46
565
127
20172025
New
capa
city
49
382 532
101
20172025
Grow
th
Global call on U.S. natural gas
Business mod
el
U.S. supply push…
…and global dem
and pull
Source: W
ood M
ackenzie, Telluria
n Research.
Notes:
(1) Includes the Perm
ian, H
aynesville, Utica
, Ma
rcellus, Ana
da
rko, Eagle Ford
.(2) Ba
sed on a
dem
and
growth estim
ate of 4.5%
post-2020.
(3) Ca
pa
city required
to meet d
ema
nd grow
th post-2020.
3
5171
2046
75Bcf/d
Output from
selected sha
le basins (1)
mtpa
Globa
l LNG
production ca
pacity
mtpa
Takeaway
infrastructure
Required
Under construction
Other
U.S.
Supply infrastructure
Required(3)
29
(2)
150
Under
construction
221
New
infrastructure required
Implica
tions for the U.S.4
13 Bcf/d of incremental production at risk of flaring w
ithout additional infrastructure investment
Source: EIA
; ARI; Tellurian analysis
Notes:
(1) $1,000/tonneaverage
§LN
G export capacity required
:―
Up to 100 mtpa: 13 Bcf/d
(20 Bcf/d
less ~7 under construction)
―~$100 billion
(1)
§Pipeline capacity required
:―
Around
20 Bcf/d
―~$70 billion
LNG
liquefaction terminal
Opera
ting/under
constructionFuture
Export capa
city
13 bcf/d
6
1
8
1
20Total estim
ated 2017-2025 production grow
th, Bcf/d
Required future investment:
§~$170 billion
§A
t least 7 Bcf/d
export capa
city
4
Continued shale revolution productivity im
provements
Sources:D
rillingInfo; Tellurian a
nalysis
5
Months on production
Delaware Basin vintage type curves
mcf/d0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
06
1218
2430
3642
4854
6066
7278
84
20112012
20132014
2015
2016
2017
2018
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,50020102012
20142016
20182020
Average Delaw
are Basin peak month production
mcf/dYear com
pleted
32%
CA
GR
7.3
5.5
12.816.0
17.618.4
5.6
Permian gas projections
Notes:
1A
ssumes 80%
wet ga
s to dry ga
s conversion
6
Alternative sources:
§IHSM
arkit
§RBN
§BTU analytics
EoY2017
Grow
th to 2025
None
HighW
ell productivity improvem
ent scenarios
LowM
id
7-12%
CA
GR
Bcf/d
~15
11-15
15-17
Bcf/d
Wet 1gas
volume,
Bcf/d9.1
5-1416
2022
23
Tellurian pipeline network
Notes:
(1) Included
in Driftw
ood H
oldings.
(2) Currently not includ
ed in D
riftwood
Hold
ings illustrative fina
ncials (slid
es 8, 9, 11 and
12); comm
ercial a
nd regula
tory inp
rogress and
financia
l structuring under review
.
7Pipeline netw
ork
Driftwood Pipeline
(1)
Ca
pacity (Bcf/d
)4.0
Cost ($ billions)
$2.2 Length (m
iles)96
Dia
meter (inches)
48C
ompression (H
P)274,000
Status
FERC a
pproval pend
ing
Haynesville Global A
ccess Pipeline(2)
Ca
pacity (Bcf/d
)2.0
Cost ($ billions)
$1.4Length (m
iles)200
Dia
meter (inches)
42C
ompression (H
P)23,000
Status
Open sea
son: 2/21/18
Permian G
lobal Access Pipeline
(2)
Ca
pacity (Bcf/d
)2.0
Cost ($ billions)
$3.7Length (m
iles)625
Dia
meter (inches)
42C
ompression (H
P)258,000
Status
Open sea
son: 3/20/18
Bringing low-cost gas to Southw
est Louisiana
1
2
3
123Driftw
ood Term
inal
0
100
200
300
400
500
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
2025
Dem
and pull
Globa
l LNG
Demand outlook
Sources: Wood
Ma
ckenzie, Tellurian Resea
rch.N
otes:(1) A
ssumes 85%
utilization ra
te. (2) Ba
sed on a
ssump
tion that LN
G d
ema
nd grow
s at 4.5%
p.a
. post-2020.
8
127 mtpa of new
liquefaction
capacity required by 2025
(1)
mtpa
Under
construction
In operation
Dem
and(2)
107 mtpa
Margins and price signals
Business mod
el
Netback prices to the Gulf C
oast (1)
Sources: Platts, C
ME, Telluria
n Research.
Notes:
(1) Forwa
rd p
rices for 2018 assum
ing $1.79/mm
Btuship
ping cost from
USGC
to East A
sia using Pla
tts JKM.
(2) Platts G
ulf Coa
st Ma
rker.
9
$5 $6 $7 $8 $9
$10
$11
Q1-2018
Q2-2018
Q3-2018
Q4-2018
Mar-18
Nov-17
Jul-17
2018 JKM forw
ard prices up $2.50 since July 2017
Avg. 2018
JKM price
up 42% this
year
$ 0
$ 5
$ 10
$ 15
$ 20
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
JulDriftw
ood LNG
FOB USG
C $3.00/m
mBtu
Apr 2018
GC
M(2)
12 Mar 2018:
$6.50/mm
Btu
20132014
20152016
20172018
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018
$/mm
Btu$/m
mBtu
Driftw
ood LNG
terminal
Note:
(1) Engineering, procurem
ent and
construction costs before ow
ners’ costs, financing costs a
nd contingencies.
10
Driftwood LN
G term
inal
Land§
~1,000acres near Lake C
harles, LA
Capacity
§~27.6 m
tpa
Trains§
Up to 20 trains of ~1.38 mtpa each
§C
hart heat exchangers§
GE LM
6000PF+ com
pressors
Storage§
3 storage tanks§
235,000 m3each
Marine
§3 m
arineberths
EPC C
ost§
~$550 per tonne§
~$15.2 billion(1)
Artist rendition
Driftw
ood LN
G
Additional m
aterial
11
Plentiful, cheap U.S. gas endowm
ent
Implica
tions for the U.S.12
Production growth and resource base from
selected U.S. unconventional basins
Source: EIA; Tellurian analysis
411
112
74
23
52
Resource size, Tcf
Marcellus-Utica
HaynesvilleEagle Ford
Permian
Anadarko
7.37.9
20172025
7.313.0
20172025
24.633.0
20172025
5.66.1
20172025
5.810.2
20172025
50.6
70.219.6
20172025
Incrementa
l prod
uction
Total selected basin shale production,Bcf/d
Infrastructure first wave
Implica
tions for the U.S.13
As a result, industry built new pipelines, reversed old ones and developed the first w
ave of LNG
export projects
Source: EIA; W
ood Mackenzie, RBN
, Tellurian analysis.
0.3 Bcf/d
5.6 Bcf/d
2.4 Bcf/d
0.7 Bcf/d
LNG
liquefaction terminal
Export capa
city
Opera
tingUnd
er construction
2.6C
ompleted pipeline
reversals and new
construction, Bcf/d
1.7
Current LN
G investm
ent:§
~$60 billion §
9 Bcf/d export capacity
4.8
2.61.3
The number of LN
G m
arket participants has grown rapidly
14G
lobal LN
G
FSRU technology is rapidly expanding the number of countries consum
ing LNG
Sources:IHS M
arkit
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
19901995
20002005
20102015
20202025
§Floa
ting storage a
nd
regasifica
tion units (FSRUs) provid
e emerging m
arkets a
fa
ster and
often cheaper
option than la
nd-ba
sed
termina
ls to begin importing
LNG
§By yea
r-end 2017, 40%
of import
ma
rkets utilized FSRUs
§IH
S forecasts tha
t over 50% of
import m
arkets w
ill utilize FSRU term
inals by 2025
Num
ber of countries
FSRU-only im
porters
Both onshore a
nd FSRU
Onshore-only
importers
Global gas com
moditizing
15G
lobal LN
G
Today’s LNG
market exhibits rem
arkable similarities to the global oil m
arket of late last century
Sources: SPE; https://ww
w.e-education.psu.edu/em
e801/node/455
Global oil
1940s1970s
2004-2005: BG builds
14 mtpa
net long portfolio w
ith 100%
destination flexibility
1980s 1983: Oil futures
trading begins
1940s: Vertically
integrated IOC
s dom
inate interregional trade
1970s: North Sea
becomes one of the first
fields without dedicated
downstream
market
providing destination flexibility
1960s1950s
1990s2000s
1970s-80s: Emergence
of crude oil markers:
WTI, Brent, Forties, etc.
1970s1980s
1960s1990s
2000s2010s
1959: First LNG
cargo shifts from
Algeria
2017: JKM financial
swaps volum
e quadruples year on year
1980s to present: oil is a globalized m
arket:§
Emergence of hedging/price risk
managem
ent products§
Financial trading grows to 500
million barrels per day –
dwarfing
physical trade
Global gas
Vertically integrated and inflexible
Vertically integrated and inflexibleRapidly com
moditizing
1973: Oil price shock
ushers in the advent of physical spot m
arkets, high and volatile prices
1980s: Oversupply
facilitates more
competition, the
emergence of
intermediaries,
fragmentation
Com
moditized and flexible
2011: Fukushima
increases Japanese dem
and for LNG
–spot prices clim
b and becom
e more
volatile
2012: Cheniere m
akes FID
on Sabine Pass LNG
–
all volumes destination
flexible and linked to Henry Hub
Sources:Kpler, M
aran Gas, IHS, W
ood Mackenzie.
Notes:
LNG
storage assumes half of fleet is in ballast, 2.9 Bcfcapacity per vessel.
Average cargo size ~2.9 Bcf, assum
ing 150,000 m3ship.
In 2017, approximately a third of all LN
G cargoes are estim
ated to be spot volumes.
Assum
es 12% per annum
demand grow
th.
Daily LN
G supply readily available across the globe
16Em
ergence of a liquid
LNG
ma
rket
488610
715894
20172020
Bcfof LNG
storage
# of LN
G
vessels
# of
cargoes load
edper d
ay
LegendLNG
carrier –
lad
enLN
G ca
rrier –unla
den
LNG
Storage -2017Ja
pan + Korea
termina
ls:633 Bcf
LNG
vessels:686 Bcf
1419
20172020
Grow
ing LNG
supply availability in all regions
Emergence of a
liquid LN
G m
arket
17
By regionG
lobally
47
20172020
Atlantic Basin
4 4
20172020
Middle East
68
20172020
Pacific Basin
1419
20172020
# of
cargoes load
edper d
ay
# of cargoes loaded per day
(1)
Source: W
ood Mackenzie, Tellurian Research.
Notes:
(1) one cargo represents ~3 Bcfof LNG
Driftw
ood Holdings’ operating costs
Business mod
el
Total anticipated cost of ~$3/mm
Btu locks in low cost of supply
$0.88
$0.36
$0.79
$0.22
$2.25
$0.75
$3.00
Drilling a
nd
completion(1)
Opera
tingG
athering,
processing and
tra
nsportation(2)
Contingency
Delivered
cost
Liquefaction
costTota
l
Sources: Wood
Ma
ckenzie, Tellurian Resea
rch.N
otes: (1) D
rilling and
comp
letion ba
sed on w
ell cost of $10.2 million, 15.5 Bcf EUR, a
nd 75.00%
net revenue interest (“NRI”)(8/8ths).
(2) Ga
thering, processing a
nd tra
nsporta
tion includes tra
nsporta
tion cost to Driftw
ood p
ipeline to m
arket.
18
Upstream cost
$/mm
Btu
Liquefaction cost
(1)
(2)
Mexic
o’s
Dem
and R
isks:
Am
id a
n E
volv
ing E
nerg
y L
andscape
Em
ily E
. Me
din
a
Energ
y R
efo
rm: M
exic
o’s
energ
y tra
nsfo
rmatio
n
A b
rief h
isto
ry o
f PE
ME
X
•P
EM
EX
was c
reate
d in
1938 b
y th
en-M
exic
an P
resid
ent
Lazaro
Card
enas
•N
atio
nal s
ym
bol
•D
eclin
e o
n P
EM
EX
’s p
roductiv
ity
The c
reatio
n o
f the e
nerg
y re
form
•A
ppro
ved in
Decem
ber 2
013 a
nd p
assed s
econdary
legis
latio
n in
August 2
014
•O
pen e
nerg
y s
ecto
r (explo
ratio
n, a
nd p
roductio
n) to
dom
estic
and fo
reig
n p
rivate
com
panie
s
Obje
ctiv
es o
f the e
nerg
y re
form
•T
ransfo
rm n
atu
ral g
as m
odel to
enhance e
nerg
y s
ecurity
•P
rom
ote
infra
stru
ctu
re d
evelo
pm
ent
•O
pen a
ccess to
pro
ducers
and u
sers
and p
rovid
e fo
r
com
petitiv
e g
as p
ricin
g
The m
ain
obje
ctiv
es o
f the e
nerg
y re
form
are
to tra
nsfo
rm th
e n
atu
ral g
as m
odel to
enhance e
nerg
y s
ecurity
, pro
mote
infra
stru
ctu
re d
evelo
pm
ent a
nd o
pen a
ccess to
pro
ducers
and u
sers
, and p
rovid
e fo
r com
petitiv
e g
as p
ricin
g.
Energ
y tra
de b
etw
een M
exic
o a
nd th
e U
S
Natural gas exports to M
exico from the
United States w
ere 4.6 Bcf/d in 2017.
Mexic
o is
the U
nite
d S
tate
s’ s
econd-la
rgest e
xport m
ark
et (a
fter C
anada) a
nd th
ird-la
rgest tra
din
g p
artn
er (a
fter
Canada a
nd C
hin
a). In
2017, tw
o-w
ay tra
de in
goods a
nd s
erv
ices to
tale
d $
623 b
illion.
Mexico accounts for 60%
of U.S. gasoline
exports....and 65% of U
.S. natural gas exports.
Overv
iew
of M
exic
o’s
energ
y m
ix
Mexic
o h
as s
ignific
antly
incre
ased n
atu
ral g
as im
ports
from
the U
S d
rivin
g a
n o
il-to-g
as fu
el s
witc
h in
the p
ow
er s
ecto
r,
whic
h is
help
ing th
e c
ountry
meet its
GH
G e
mis
sio
n re
ductio
n ta
rgets
.
Source:EIA,Mexicoenergyoutlook2016
Facto
rs d
rivin
g n
atu
ral g
as d
em
and
Natu
ral g
as in
Mexic
o h
as b
een a
nd w
ill contin
ue to
be in
dem
and. T
he M
inis
try o
f Energ
y’s
pro
jects
, a 3
.8 p
erc
ent in
cre
ase
in a
vera
ge a
nnual d
em
and fo
r the n
ext 1
4 y
ears
due to
ele
ctric
ity g
enera
tion d
em
and.
Mexic
o’s
mid
stre
am
build
-out
Mexic
o’s
dom
estic
pip
elin
e n
etw
ork
expansio
n p
lan, in
clu
des 1
2 a
dditio
nal p
ipelin
es (3
,200 m
iles) w
ith a
tota
l capacity
of 9
.7 B
cf/d
.
•S
IST
RA
GA
S, o
pera
ted b
y C
EN
AG
AS
, is th
e la
rgest
transporta
tion s
yste
m in
Mexic
o a
ccountin
g fo
r
10,0
68km
.
•C
om
isió
n F
edera
l de E
lectric
idad (C
FE
) has a
tota
l
of 4
,495 k
m o
f pip
elin
es u
nder c
onstru
ctio
n.
•T
he C
RE
is c
reatin
g a
transpare
nt a
nd p
rice
transpare
nt m
ark
et.
•O
n J
une 1
6, 2
017 it re
moved th
e p
rice c
ap th
at
PE
ME
X c
ould
charg
e fo
r natu
ral g
as.
•P
EM
EX
is re
quire
d to
rele
ase 7
0%
of th
e v
olu
me o
f
its g
as s
upply
portfo
lio.
Main
risks fa
cin
g M
exic
o’s
natu
ral g
as p
roje
cts
•P
olitic
al s
ituatio
n, M
exic
o’s
pre
sid
entia
l
ele
ctio
ns
•A
MLO
, frontru
nner in
polls
Left-w
ing p
arty
MO
RE
NA
,
(Natio
nal R
egenera
tion M
ovem
ent)
•N
AF
TA
•N
atio
nalis
t vie
ws
•C
ut o
n e
nerg
y im
ports
•In
cre
ase in
Mexic
o’s
dom
estic
natu
ral g
as p
roductio
n
•Land rig
hts
•P
rocess o
f media
tion a
nd consulta previa
•Irre
gula
rity in
land title
s
•C
RE
’s re
quire
ments
do n
ot m
atc
h M
exic
o’s
reality
•S
ecurity
concern
s
•V
iole
nce m
ost p
rom
inent a
round s
hale
oil a
nd g
as
reserv
es
•S
tiffenin
g o
f fuel in
pip
elin
es b
y n
on-s
tate
acto
rs
•In
frastru
ctu
re b
uild
-out c
halle
nged b
y n
on-s
tate
acto
rs
Op
po
rtun
ities fo
r the
US
in M
exic
o’s
mid
stre
am
bu
ild-o
ut
“Mexic
o’s
success w
ill mean A
meric
an s
uccess,
partic
ula
rly fo
r those w
ho s
ee re
al v
alu
e in
securin
g N
orth
Am
eric
an e
nerg
y in
dependence”-
Meghan L
. O’s
ulliv
an.
•A
ccess to
Mexic
o’s
libera
lized e
nerg
y m
ark
et
•M
exic
o’s
dem
and g
row
th o
ver th
e n
ext d
ecade
•F
avora
ble
geogra
phy a
nd lo
gis
tics
•T
he re
aliz
atio
n o
f North
Am
eric
an e
nerg
y
independence is
to s
om
e d
egre
e d
ependent o
n
the s
uccess o
f Mexic
o’s
energ
y re
form
goin
g
forw
ard
.
UnderstandingtheFutureEvolutionofAsianGas
Markets:ChinaandIndia
GrowingtheAm
ericanNaturalGasProductionPlatform
EPRINCW
orkshop
AshutoshShastri,EnerStratConsulting,U
KLucianPugliaresi,EPRIN
C
April 19th2018
Washington D
C, U
SA
1949-19591960-1978
1979-19911992-1998
1998-2008Today
HISTO
RIC
AL PR
OG
RESSIO
N O
F THE C
HIN
ESE OIL &
GA
S IND
USTRY
5thDivisionof19thPLAArm
yformedinto
an“OilCorps”
OilSelfsufficiency
viewedascriticalto
nationalsecurity
MinistryofPetroleum
Industryform
edin1955
ChinaImportsO
ilproductsfrom
Russia
RegionalPetroleum
Administration
Bureausformed
Oil&
GasproductionpicksupbutrelationswithRussiastartto
strain
5thDivisionof19thPLAArm
yformedinto
an“OilCorps”
OilSelfsufficiency
viewedascriticalto
nationalsecurity
MinistryofPetroleum
Industryform
edin1955
ChinaImportsO
ilproductsfrom
Russia
RegionalPetroleum
Administration
Bureausformed
Oil&
GasproductionpicksupbutrelationswithRussiastartto
strain
Chinalaunchesitseconom
icliberalisationpolicy(1978)
PAB-BigContractRegim
eStarts(1981)
MPIabolishedand
CNPCformed(1988)
Productionmatures
Oilim
portsrise
PABsbecomelegal
entitiesandde-centralisationexperim
entstarts
PABde-centralisationrecognisedasa“m
anagement
disaster”(1995)
Pricerationalisationtoalignw
ithinternationaloilprices
Industrylossesballoon,productivitydropsandim
portsrise
Bigbangindustryreform
(1998)
Petroleumindustry
equatedtoNationalSecurity
Re-centralisationthroughassetsw
aps
CNPC,SinopecGroupandPetroChinaarecreated(1999)
Growthininternational
activity
AbipolarCNPCbeginstotakeshape
Source: EnerStratAnalysis
1949-19601961-1974
1975-19901991-2003
2004-2016Today
HISTO
RIC
AL PR
OG
RESSIO
N: IN
DIA
N O
IL & G
AS IN
DU
STRY
OilFieldsAct1948
Petroleumand
NaturalGasRules1959
FormationofO
NGC
RussianTechnicalCooperationProgram
mestarts
Conflictswithform
erim
perialcompanies
riseduetoconcernsofm
onopolies
Petroleumindustry
andnationalsecuritygetequated.
IOCxenophobiabegins
totakeshapeonthebackofm
onopoliesconcernsandtheIranCoupof1952
GoIstartstotakestepsfornationalisationofpetroleum
industry
IOCLiscreatedasa
nationalmarketing
company
1973Oilcrisesshapes
thedebateonstrategicsecurity,suspicionofforeigncom
paniesheightened.
NewNational
companiesarecreated
fromtheoilindustry
nationalisationinitiative
1974:OilIndustry
DevelopmentBoard
1976:BPCl1974:HPCL1984:GAIL1988:PetronetLNG
IOCsexitIndia
Aperiodcalled“thegoldenageofnationalcom
panies”begins,ONGCleadsthepack.
BalanceofPayment
CrisesinIndia(1991)
EconomicLiberalisation
Policyannounced(1991)
DGHasan“upstream
regulator”iscreated1993
NELProundsforprivatesectorparticipationannounced(1993)
FirstLNGdealissignedwithQ
atar(2002)
FirstLNGarrivesin2005
Newgasdiscoveries
inD6
TheReliancePSCsagaplaysout
TheLNGandPipelinesinfrastructurestartstopick(2010)
Source: EnerStratAnalysis
Source:IEEJ–EPRIN
C“FutureofAsianLNG”2017
Asean+India–
100MMTRangein2030Forecast
Source:IEEJ–EPRIN
C“FutureofAsianLNG”2017
Mostvolum
eriskfromIndia
Source:IEEJ
ASEAN–LIQ
UEFACTIO
NandREGASCapacity--2017
Source:IEEJ–EPRIN
C“FutureofAsianLNG”2017
Transmission Pipelines
Existing Gas pipelines
LPG Pipeline
GA
IL’s Upcom
ing PipelineR
IL’s East West Pipeline
Other proposed Pipelines
LNG
Terminal
JAG
DISH
PUR
PHO
OLPU
R
BH
ATIN
DA
BAREILLY
DISPUR
DELH
I
AG
AR
TALA
BA
RO
DA
LUC
KN
OW
PATNA
AH
MED
AB
AD
RAJKOT
KO
TA
MATHANIAG
WALIO
R
UJJAIN
AGRA
KOLKATA
GAYA
BOKARO
VARANASIJHANSI
DAH
EJ I & II10 m
mtpa
CO
IMB
ATO
RE
MA
NG
ALO
RE
MU
MBAI
BH
UB
AN
ESHW
AR
KR
ISHN
APA
TNA
M
NELLO
RE
BANGALO
RE
KO
LHA
PUR
SOLAPUR
KA
KIN
AD
A
VIJAYA
WA
DA
DABH
OL
5 mm
tpa
KA
NJIK
KO
D
AURAIYA
GO
A
CUTTACK
VIJAYPUR KA
NPU
R
NA
NG
AL
GURG
AUN
PUNE
BH
AR
UC
H
SUR
AT
HYDERABAD RA
JAM
UN
DR
Y
BHOPAL
BARMER
Hisar
Jhajjarr
Dadri –B
awana –
Nangal P/L
Chainsa –Jhajjar –
Hisar P/L
DVPL PH
-II
GR
EP II
EWPL
KOC
HI
5 mm
tpa
Dabhol-B
angalore P/L
Kochi-K
oottanad-Bangalore-
Mangalore P/L
Haldia-
Jagdhispur P/L
CH
ENN
AI
TUTIC
OR
IN
TIRU
CH
CH
IRA
PALLI
DA
MR
A
JAB
ALPU
R
BH
ILAI
JAISA
LMER
TAPI P/L From
Pakistan
Surat Paradip P/L
HAZIR
A5 m
mtpa
Gas N
etwork in India
GA
S NETW
OR
K IN
IND
IA
Source: EnerStratAnalysis
CICGDNETW
ORK–
23CITIESPROPO
SEDTOBE
CONNECTED–
56CITIES
CG
D N
ETWO
RK
OF IN
DIA
-THENEXTW
AVE
Source: EnerStratAnalysis
CHINAGASSU
PPLYTO2040–
EIA(billionsofcubicfeet/day)
TERMCO
NTRACTSSIGN
EDBYINDEPEN
DENTEN
TITIESSINCE2015
Source:S&PGlobalPlatts
ChinaHistoricalandFutureNaturalGasDem
andfromVariousSources
Source:HowardRogers,O
IES,varioussources,2015forecast
Actualfor2017,258BCM
CH
INA &
IND
IA: SIM
ILAR
ITIES AN
D D
IFFEREN
CES
KeySimilarities
KeyDifferences
PetroleumandGassectorsinbothcountriesareview
edas“victim
s”ofthemixedeconom
ymodel-thenom
an'slandbetw
eenplanned/centralisedgovernment
dominatedindustryandafreem
arketeconomy.
Bothcountrieshavechallengesofmanaginghigh
economicgrow
th,highpopulation,dangerousairqualityissues,lackofpoliticallyindependentinstitutionsandissuesofpolicytransparency
Bothcountriesarekeentoreduceconsumptionofhigh
emissionfossilfuels,developrenew
ableenergysystems
andfacedomesticpressurestoact.
Bothcountriespositthemselvesaslargeconsum
ersofcleanburningnaturalgas-bothare“talkingthetalk”
Bothcountrieshaveplanstodeveloptheirown
unconventionalresources.
Importantdifferencesinindustrystructure:w
hileChinahasverticallyintegratedregionalm
onopolystructures,Indiahasspecialisedandnationallyoperatingm
onopolystructures.
Bigdifferencesontheurgencyfordevelopinggasfiredelectricitygenerationcapacities:W
hileChinaissignallingaclearintenttoshiftcoalfiredgenerationtogasandatscale-suchsignalsarenotpalpableinIndia.
LargeindustrialsinChinaareemergingasdirectinternational
buyerswhereasIndianstateow
nedentitiesareplayingroleofdem
andaggregators.
Importantdifferencesintheoperationalstyleofpolicym
akersinbothcountries;especiallyw
hileChineseinstitutionsappearreticenttoopenlydiscuss[pricingreform
theIndianinstitutionsappeartobeopentodiscussion.
Chinawithsignificantinternationalpipelineinterconnection
systemshastheopportunitytoplayoffpipelinegasandLNG,
IndiawillbeaLNGdrivenplay.
Source: EnerStratAnalysis
LN
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ur
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at
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conomy, Trade &
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Th
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you
!
Takeshi SOD
A
(email) soda-takeshi@
meti.go.jp
IPAAFrederick J. Law
rence
VP-Economics &
International Affairs
Oil Country Tubular G
oods
Source: Census and IHS M
arkit
Rig Count –M
ore with Less
Source: Baker Hughes
Top Importers –
2017 OCTG
and LP
S.Korea697,086
1,062,1781,759,264
Mexico
160,131454,659
614,790
India392,950
8,900401,850
Canada175,442
183,929359,371
Germany
148,85658,617
207,473
Brazil47,340
158,285205,625
Argentina6,541
192,932199,473
Taiwan
60,113132,472
192,585
Austria0
163,569163,569
Russia30,839
127,508158,347
Japan54,104
89,930144,034