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1 Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity Prepared for: Workshop: “Growing the North American Natural Gas Production Platform” Strategies for Addressing Infrastructure Constraints, Regulatory Risks and Trade Disputes Hosted by: EPRINC Prepared By: Vello Kuuskraa, President Advanced Resources International, Inc. Willard Hotel, Washington, DC April 19, 2018 Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity | JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com

Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

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Page 1: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

1

Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity

Prepared for:Workshop: “Growing the North American Natural Gas Production Platform”Strategies for Addressing Infrastructure Constraints, Regulatory Risks and Trade Disputes

Hosted by:EPRINC

Prepared By: Vello Kuuskraa, PresidentAdvanced Resources International, Inc.

Willard Hotel, Washington, DCApril 19, 2018

Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity

| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com

Page 2: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

2

Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity

Introduction

| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com

The U.S. has large natural gas resources that have low-to-moderate “break-even” costs.* These resources include:

§ Over 2,700 Tcf of proved plus technically recoverable unconventional gas resources (shale gas, tight gas and CBM), including significant volumes of associated gas from “tight oil”.

§ Over 400 Tcf of remaining on-shore (L-48) conventional gas reserves and resources, with much of this resource located in smaller, higher-cost-to-develop fields.

§ Nearly 200 Tcf of associated gas reserves and resources in deepwater Gulf of Mexico oil fields, with additional reserves and resources in Alaska.

With continuing gains in well performance and the “discovery” of new shale and “tight oil” plays, our understanding of the size of the ultimate U.S. natural gas resource base has increased steadily in the past two decades and will continue to do so in the future.*We define “break-even” costs as full-cycle finding and development costs with a 15% (before tax) return on investment.

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3

Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity

2016 2017 2018 (e)

(Bcfd) (Bcfd) (Bcfd)

Unconventional Gas

▪ Shale Gas 42 45 52

▪ Tight Gas 15 14 13

▪ CBM 3 3 3

Total 60 62 68

Conventional Gas* 12 12 12

Total 72 74 80JAF2018_025.XLS

Status of U.S. Natural Gas Production

After declining to 72 Bcfd (dry) in 2016, natural gas production increased to 74 Bcfd in 2017. With a 4Q 2017 natural gas production rate of 76 Bcfd (dry), we look for natural gas production to have a second year of strong growth, averaging 80 Bcfd in 2018. Shale gas increases its role as the dominant source of natural gas production and growth.

| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com

U.S. Natural Gas Production (Dry)U.S. Natural Gas Production (Dry)

Source: EIA; Advanced Resources Int. Shale Gas Database, 2014.*Includes L-48 onshore, offshore and Alaska.

Page 4: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

4

Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity

Outlook for U.S. Natural Gas Production

| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com

Led by significant increases from shales and associated gas from “tight oil”, we project domestic natural gas will reach 100 Bcfd of “production capacity” by 2025.

§ Production from Appalachian Basin’s Marcellus and Utica Shales, currently at 26 Bcfd, will provide about a third of total natural gas production by 2025.

§ Associated gas from “tight oil” (including shale oil and tight sands oil), currently at 17 Bcfd, will provide about a quarter of total natural gas production by 2025.

§ Production from the Haynesville Shale, after halting its past spectacular decline, is on the rise and is expected to be a major supply source for the next round of LNG plants.

§ Emerging shale and tight gas plays, such as the Anadarko Basin’s Stack/Scoop and the DJ Basin’s sands and shales, will more then counter declines in the pioneering Antrim, Barnett, and Fayetteville shales.

§ Active development of already discovered deepwater oil fields along with new discoveries will enable the Offshore Gulf of Mexico grow its associated gas production.

Page 5: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

5

Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity

1. Associated Gas

Permian 264 398 445Eagle Ford 46 70 75

Williston 33 47 55Cana Woodford* 37 72 65

D-J Niobrara 25 26 24Total 405 613 664

Marcellus 39 48 55Haynesville 27 46 52

Utica 20 28 25Other** 27 30 27 *

Total 113 152 159JAF2018_025.XLS

April 2018

2. Shale Gas

Selected Basins/Plays

End of 2016 End of 2017

Active Rig Count: Selected Basins

*Does not include Kingfisher Co., Oklahoma.**Includes Barnett (3), Fayetteville (1), Ardmore/Arkoma (9), Miss Lime (2) and Granite Wash (12) in April, 2018.

Changes in Rig Counts Help Identify Growing Shale/Associated Gas Basins

| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com

Associated Gas. Rig utilization in five key “tight oil” plays (containing associated gas) has climbed from 613 at the end of 2017 to 664 today. The Permian with an increase of 47 rigs account for most of the gain.

Shale Gas. Rig utilization in other shale gas plays has rebounded from 152 at end of 2017 to 159 today. The Marcellus and Haynesville account for two-thirds of the shale gas rig fleet.

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6

Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity

Appalachian Basin’s Shale Gas Production Surges

| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com

The Appalachian Basin has some of the lowest cost (at the wellhead) domestic shale gas resources.

Completion of Rover Phase I, the Leach Express, and the Access pipelines (among others) enabled natural gas production and delivery from the Appalachian Basin to increase by 2 Bcfd in 2017. Completion of additional pipelines (Rover Phase 2, SW Louisiana, and others) will support 3 Bcfd of natural gas production growth from Appalachian Basin in 2018.

However, access to regional markets and need to complete long distance pipelines to the Gulf will constrain near-term production.

Appalachian Basin’s Shale Gas Production (Dry)2016 2017 2018(Bcfd) (Bcfd) (Bcfd)

Marcellus 16.4 17.7 20.0Utica 3.8 4.5 5.5Other 0.4 0.5 0.5Total 20.6 22.7 26.0

JAF2018_025.XLS

Shale Play

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7

Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity

2016 2017 2018

Bakken 1.1 1.2 1.3Eagle Ford* 4.0 3.5 3.5Permian (TX / NM) 3.4 4.2 6.0Anadarko 2.3 2.5 3.3Denver 1.3 1.7 2.2Other 0.7 0.9 0.9

Total 12.8 14.0 17.2

Subtotal Shale 9.3 10.5 13.6

"Tight Oil" Play

Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd)

JAF2018_025.XLS

Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com

Associated gas from “tight oil” - - the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian Stack/ Scoop, Denver’s Niobrara (among others) - - has provided about half of the recent increases in natural gas supplies.

§ With higher oil prices, associated gas production from “tight oil” increased notably in 2017 and will increase further in 2018.

§ Because associated gas from “tight oil” is a by-product of oil production, at strong oil prices production of associated gas becomes essentially a “free good.”

*The Eagle Ford Shale and the STACK/SCOOP also contains non-associated gas plays not dependent on “tight oil” development or economics.

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8

Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity

Natural gas production from the Permian Basin provided 8.1 Bcfd (wet) of natural gas production in 2017, up from 2016. We project the Permian will provide 10 Bcfd in 2018.

§ Associated gas (wet) from “tight oil” of 5.7 Bcfd in 2017, increasing to 7.8 Bcfd in 2018, is the engine of production growth in the Permian Basin.*

§ The “discovery” of “Alpine High” in the Delaware Basin portion of the Permian Basin introduces a major new wet gas play.

Growth of Permian Basin’s Wet Natural Gas Production

| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com

*Dry associated natural gas production from “tight oil” would be approximately 25% lower, estimated at 4.2 Bcfdin 2017 and 6.0 Bcfd in 2018.

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9

Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity

A major question governing the outlook for natural gas production is: To what extent will future natural gas “break-even” costs encourage or stymie gas demand and competitively priced LNG exports?

Improvements in well productivities and development efficiencies have reduced today’s “break-even” costs for shale gas.

Will more intensive well completion practices (longer laterals, more frac stages, and higher proppant volumes) improve well productivity sufficiently to counter increases in oil field service costs?

To examine this question, we selected the “core” area of the Haynesville Shale to look at future “break-even” costs.

Outlook for Future Shale Gas “Break-Even” Costs

| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com

Page 10: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

10

Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity

Our shale gas model uses well performance and cost adjustment factors to link changes in development practices and oil field service costs to future “break-even” costs.

Use of more frac stages (33), higher proppant volumes (2,500 lbs/ft), and somewhat longer laterals (8,500 ft) will improve Haynesville Shale Play #1’s well productivity from 18.4 Bcf in 2017 to 21.2 Bcf in 2025.

Improving well performance and greater drilling efficiencies will help counter increases in service costs as well as the costs of more intensive development, limiting Year 2025 “break-even” costs to $2.60/Mcf compared to $2.50/Mcf in 2017.

Haynesville Shale Core Area “Break-Even” Costs

| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com

Actual Projected2017 2025

(@ $50/B) (@$65/B)

7,400 8,500

30 21

$15,000 $23,000

$3,400 $3,710

Frac Stages 25 33

Frac Cost ($/Stage) $60,000 $79,000

$5,100 $6,430

$8,500 $10,140

18.4 21.2

$2.50 $2.60 JAF2018_025.XLS

 Total Well Drilling Costs ($M)

Lateral Length

1. Well Drilling

Days to Drill

Rig Day-Rate ($/day)

"Break-Even" Costs ($/Net Mcf)

2. Well Completion

Total Completion Costs ($000)

Total Well D&C Cost ($000)

Gross EUR/Well (Bcf)

Page 11: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

11

Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity

Closing Comments

| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com

The domestic natural gas resource base is large and yet to be fully defined.

Increases in well productivities and development efficiencies will counter increases in oil field service costs, helping maintain domestic natural gas as a low-to-moderate cost resource.

Canadian natural gas resources, led by the Montney Resource Play (Canada’s Marcellus), further support a positive outlook for North American natural gas supplies.

With the change in the natural gas paradigm from “scarcity to plenty”, the emphasis now shifts to “productive capacity” and the need for transportation infrastructure and new markets.

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12

Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive Capacity

AdvancedResourcesInternationalwww.adv-res.com

Office LocationsWashington, DC4501 Fairfax Drive, Suite 910Arlington, VA 22203Phone: (703) 528-8420

Houston, TX11931 Wickchester Ln., Suite 200 Houston, TX 77043-4574 Phone: (281) 558-9200

Knoxville, TN 1210 Kenesaw Ave. Suite 1210A Knoxville, TN 37919-7736

| JAF2018_027.PPT | April 18, 2018 | www.adv-res.com

Page 13: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Permian Basin

Production and Looming

IssuesT

RIS

HA

CU

RT

IS, P

RE

SID

EN

T A

ND

CO

-FO

UN

DE

R, P

ET

RO

NE

RD

S

TR

ISH

A@

PE

TR

ON

ER

DS

.CO

M

FO

R T

HE

EN

ER

GY

PO

LICY

RE

SE

AR

CH

FO

UN

DA

TIO

N., IN

C.

AP

RIL 1

9, 2

01

8

PETRON

ERDS LLC | W

WW

.PETRON

ERDS.CO

M | 970-329-1645

Page 14: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 2

Source: Extraction rig, September 2017

PetroNerd:

Page 15: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Podcasts

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 3

Page 16: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

“Completion Design Changes

and the Impact of U

S Shale Well Productivity”

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 4

http://ww

w.petronerds.com

/wp-

content/uploads/2017/11/OIES-PetroN

erds-Com

pletion-Design-and-Productivity-2017.pdf

Page 17: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Spud to Total Depth in Less than Three Days

PETRON

ERDS LLC | W

WW

.PETRON

ERDS.CO

M | 970-329-1645

Extraction Oil and Gas, Septem

ber 2017

Page 18: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Permian Basin Production

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 6

- 2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

1/1/2000

6/1/2000

11/1/2000

4/1/2001

9/1/2001

2/1/2002

7/1/2002

12/1/2002

5/1/2003

10/1/2003

3/1/2004

8/1/2004

1/1/2005

6/1/2005

11/1/2005

4/1/2006

9/1/2006

2/1/2007

7/1/2007

12/1/2007

5/1/2008

10/1/2008

3/1/2009

8/1/2009

1/1/2010

6/1/2010

11/1/2010

4/1/2011

9/1/2011

2/1/2012

7/1/2012

12/1/2012

5/1/2013

10/1/2013

3/1/2014

8/1/2014

1/1/2015

6/1/2015

11/1/2015

4/1/2016

9/1/2016

2/1/2017

7/1/2017

12/1/2017

Water – Barrels Per Day

Liquid – Barrels Per Day/ Gas – mcd/d

Total Liquid ProductionTotal Gas Production

Total Water Production

Water –

15 mbd

Oil –

2.9 mbd

GAS –9 plus Bcf/d

Page 19: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Permian Problem

sW

ith crude oil comes associated natural gas and

produced water

Gassy reservoirs can help drive oil production –at

least in the Permian’s case.

It isn’t just the Permian that is the problem

…..gas

EVERYWHERE

Ultra Petroleum –

Pinedale, Wyom

ing

High intensity completions have done w

onders for oil production and even m

ore for gas production (IPs and w

ell productivity)M

arcellus

© PETRO

NERD

SLLC | W

WW

.PETRON

ERDS.CO

M | 970-329-1645

7

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

02

46

810

1214

1618

2022

2426

2830

3234

3638

4042

4446

4850

52

mcf/d

Month

Marcellus Reservoir Decline Curve

20132014

20152016

2017

11,300 mcf/d

Source: PetroNerds, D

rillingInfodata

Page 20: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Permian Basin G

eology and Stratigraphy

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 8

Source: Concho Resources 2ndQ

uarter 2013 Investor PresentationSource: PER

MIAN

BASIN PR

OVIN

CE (044) By M

ahlon M. Ball

The Permian hosts a vast am

ount of stacked payzonesthat are actively being drilled and further delineated for the best spacing and com

pletion plans.

Page 21: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Still Early in the Gam

eThis is a highly layered m

ix of conventional and unconventional reservoirs. Intense layeringInterbedded shales, sandstones, and carbonates

The Permian Basin has a trem

endous amount of potential in term

s of stacked pay, but successfully developing these stacked payzonesw

ill take a lot of w

ork and a lot of capital. Stringent leasing requirem

ents in the Permian Basin often prevent optim

al asset delineationLand rush, W

all Street push, and high acreage costs N

ow operators are trying to delineate, develop, and m

aintain leasing requirements all at the sam

e tim

eCost inflation also causing problem

s with soo

much activity in the Perm

ian Local sand etc.

Optim

al spacing and completion design (frac) is key

Still early in this ball game

InventoryW

ell density, parent child problems, all com

ing into focus

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 9

Source: Diamondback and Cim

arex April 2018 Investor Presentations

Page 22: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Pioneer –Then and N

ow

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 10

Source: Pioneer Natural Resources O

ct 2013 Investor PresentationSource: Pioneer N

atural Resources April 2018 Investor Presentation

Page 23: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Horizontal Liquid Production

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 11

- 20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

1/1/2000

6/1/2000

11/1/2000

4/1/2001

9/1/2001

2/1/2002

7/1/2002

12/1/2002

5/1/2003

10/1/2003

3/1/2004

8/1/2004

1/1/2005

6/1/2005

11/1/2005

4/1/2006

9/1/2006

2/1/2007

7/1/2007

12/1/2007

5/1/2008

10/1/2008

3/1/2009

8/1/2009

1/1/2010

6/1/2010

11/1/2010

4/1/2011

9/1/2011

2/1/2012

7/1/2012

12/1/2012

5/1/2013

10/1/2013

3/1/2014

8/1/2014

1/1/2015

6/1/2015

11/1/2015

4/1/2016

9/1/2016

2/1/2017

7/1/2017

12/1/2017

Well Count

Barrels Per Day

Horizontal Well Count

Vertical Well Count

Total Liquid ProductionHorizontal Liquid Production

Vertical Liquid Production

Source: PetroNerds, D

rillingInfodata

Page 24: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Associated Gas and Produced W

ater

12©

PETRON

ERDS LLC | W

WW

.PETRON

ERDS.CO

M | 970-329-1645

- 1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1/1/20002/1/20013/1/20024/1/20035/1/20046/1/20057/1/20068/1/20079/1/2008

10/1/200911/1/201012/1/2011

1/1/20132/1/20143/1/20154/1/20165/1/2017

GAS - mcf/d

Liquid – Barrels Per Day

GAS -Horizontal vs. Vertical

Horizontal Liquid ProductionVertical Liquid Production

Horizontal Gas ProductionVertical Gas Production

- 2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1/1/20002/1/20013/1/20024/1/20035/1/20046/1/20057/1/20068/1/20079/1/2008

10/1/200911/1/201012/1/2011

1/1/20132/1/20143/1/20154/1/20165/1/2017

Barrels Per Day WATER

Barrels Per Day OIL

WATER –

Horizontal vs. Vertical

Horizontal Liquid ProductionVertical Liquid Production

Horizontal Water Production

Vertical Water Production

10 mbd

7 Bcf/d

Source: PetroNerds, D

rillingInfodata

Page 25: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Gas to O

il Ratio in the Permian Basin

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 13

Source: PetroNerds, D

rillingInfodata

Page 26: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

API Gravity in the Perm

ian Basin

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 14

Source: PetroNerds, D

rillingInfodata

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Production by API Gravity

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 15

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

1/1/2010

3/1/2010

5/1/2010

7/1/2010

9/1/2010

11/1/2010

1/1/2011

3/1/2011

5/1/2011

7/1/2011

9/1/2011

11/1/2011

1/1/2012

3/1/2012

5/1/2012

7/1/2012

9/1/2012

11/1/2012

1/1/2013

3/1/2013

5/1/2013

7/1/2013

9/1/2013

11/1/2013

1/1/2014

3/1/2014

5/1/2014

7/1/2014

9/1/2014

11/1/2014

1/1/2015

3/1/2015

5/1/2015

7/1/2015

9/1/2015

11/1/2015

1/1/2016

3/1/2016

5/1/2016

7/1/2016

9/1/2016

11/1/2016

1/1/2017

3/1/2017

5/1/2017

7/1/2017

9/1/2017

11/1/2017

1/1/2018

Barrels Per Day

0-2525-35

35-4040-45

45-5050+

Source: PetroNerds, D

rillingInfodata

Page 28: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Permian Basin Decline Curve

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 16

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

01

23

45

67

89

10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152

BARRELS PER DAY

MO

NTH

20132014

20152016

2017

# of Wells Included in

Month 1

20131,154

20141,656

20151,838

20161,697

20172,604

Source: PetroNerds, D

rillingInfodata

Page 29: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Measuring Productivity

17©

PETRON

ERDS LLC | W

WW

.PETRON

ERDS.CO

M | 970-329-1645

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

1/1/08

8/1/08

3/1/09

10/1/09

5/1/10

12/1/10

7/1/11

2/1/12

9/1/12

4/1/13

11/1/13

6/1/14

1/1/15

8/1/15

3/1/16

10/1/16

5/1/17

BARRELS PER FOOT

First 6 Month Cum

ulative Production Per Lateral Foot

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1/1/08

9/1/08

5/1/09

1/1/10

9/1/10

5/1/11

1/1/12

9/1/12

5/1/13

1/1/14

9/1/14

5/1/15

1/1/16

9/1/16

5/1/17

FEET

Average Lateral Length

Source: PetroNerds, D

rillingInfodata

Page 30: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Bone Spring Reservoir Decline Curve

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 18

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

01

23

45

67

89

10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152

BARRELS PER DAY

MO

NTH

20132014

20152016

2017

Source: PetroNerds, D

rillingInfodata

Page 31: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Top Permian Basin O

perators by Production

OperatorDaily Liquids b/d

Daily Gas mcf/d

1O

CCIDENTAL ENERGY COM

PANYINC.276,024

556,347 2

PIONEER NATURAL RESO

URCES COM

PANY210,694

461,204 3

CONCHO

RESOURCES INC.

197,709 659,170

4EO

G RESOURCES INCO

RPORATED

131,031 407,233

5APACHE CO

RPORATIO

N102,584

477,368 6

EXXON M

OBIL CO

RPORATIO

N91,408

285,160 7

ANADARKO E&

P ONSHO

RE LLC88,790

295,583 8

DIAMO

NDBACK E&P LLC

83,932 123,888

9CHEVRO

N U.S.A. INC.82,071

397,068 10

ENCANA CORPO

RATION

72,643 157,580

11PARSLEY ENERGY O

PERATIONS LLC

71,987 184,253

12ENERGEN CO

RPORATIO

N68,566

234,231 13

CIMAREX ENERGY CO

MPANY

64,035 477,567

14KINDER M

ORGAN INCO

RPORATED

51,368 158,186

15RSP PERM

IAN LLC49,326

104,704 16

MEW

BOURNE HO

LDINGS INC48,960

202,757 17

RD SHELL47,638

117,148 18

DEVON ENERGY CO

RPORATIO

N45,105

177,719 19

SURGE OPERATING LLC

44,011 42,721

20SM

ENERGY COM

PANY40,563

73,676 21

LAREDO PETRO

LEUM INC.

37,173 214,359

22CENTENNIAL RESO

URCE PRODUCTIO

N LLC35,086

81,964 23

RKI EXPLORATIO

N & PRO

DUCTION LLC

35,030 185,845

24JAGGED PEAK ENERGY LLC

30,546 50,148

25ENDEAVO

R ENERGY RESOURCES LP

30,464 63,261

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 19

Source: PetroN

erds, D

rillingInfodata

Page 32: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Why Everyone N

ow Cares

about “Basis Swaps”

Operators can protect them

selves against capacity constraints for both oil and gas through outright derivative hedges as w

ell as basis sw

aps.

Flurry of investor concerns about capacity constraints.

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 20

Page 33: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Midland Basis Sw

aps: Q4 2016 vs Q

4 2017

© PETRO

NERD

S LLC | WW

W.PETRO

NERD

S.COM

| 970-329-1645 21

Source: PetroNerds, H

edgeAware. Survey of 41 publicly traded E&

Ps.

Page 34: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Natural G

as: A Role for

Public Lands?

The Institute for Energy Research

Tom Pyle, President —

@Tom

JPyle

Page 35: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Natural G

as Resources

�We have m

ore gas than we

know w

hat to do with.

�1980 DO

E estimate: U

.S. had 35 years’ w

orth of natural gas.�Today, 37 years later, D

OE

estimate: 100 years.

Page 36: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Shale Revolution

�The Shale Revolution

changed everything�Technology, private and state lands, property rights�50 percent surge in production�Price cut in half

Page 37: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

What role have

federal lands played?

Page 38: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

What role have

federal lands played?

Page 39: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Federal Onshore G

as Production Volum

e (mcf)

Page 40: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Federal Offshore G

as Production Volum

e (mcf)

Page 41: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Why the

Production G

ap?

Private Land O

wnership

Page 42: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Permitting:

Federal vs. State

0 50

100

150

200

250

300

Average W

ait in Days

Page 43: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

This trend didn’t begin w

ith the O

bama

Adm

inistration

Page 44: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

What are w

e leaving on the table?

Page 45: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

IER Study:

Economic

Benefits of

Federal Lands Production

Page 46: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

What’s the proper

perspective on the role of public land?

Page 47: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Solutions

�Divestm

ent

�State Managem

ent

•Stream

line Permitting Process

•A

ccurate Inventory of Resource B

ase

•R

evenue Sharing with States

Page 48: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

"It's tough to make

predictions, especially about the future…

"

Page 49: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

…but there w

ill always

be a role for public lands. Tom

Pyle —@

TomJPyle

instituteforenergyresearch.org

Page 50: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Ad

rian Reed SV

P Strategy and

Risk Tellurian Inc.

April 2018

Importance of Infrastructure

for LNG

Export

Page 51: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Cautionary statem

ents

The information in this presentation includes “forw

ard-looking statements” w

ithin the meaning of

Section 27A of the Securities A

ct of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

Act of 1934, as am

ended. All statem

ents other than statements of historical fact are forw

ard-looking statem

ents. The words “anticipate,” “assum

e,” “believe,” “budget,” “estimate,” “expect,”

“forecast,” “initial,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “potential,” “project,” “should,” “w

ill,” “would,” and

similar expressions are intended to identify forw

ard-looking statements. The forw

ard-looking statem

ents in this presentation relate to, among other things, anticipated supply, dem

and and other factors that m

ay affect the LNG

industry and Driftw

ood Holdings, including the financing of D

riftwood Holdings.

Our forw

ard-looking statements are based on assum

ptions and analyses made by us in light of our

experience and our perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developm

ents, and other factors that we believe are appropriate under the circum

stances. These statem

ents are subject to numerous know

n and unknown risks and uncertainties, w

hich may cause

actual results to be materially different from

any future results or performance expressed or im

plied by the forw

ard-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include those described in the “Risk

Factors” section of our Annual Report on Form

10-K for the year ended Decem

ber 31, 2017 filed with

the Securities and Exchange Com

mission (the “SEC

”) on March 15, 2018 and other filings w

ith the SEC

, which are incorporated by reference in this presentation. M

any of the forward-looking

statements in this presentation relate to events or developm

ents anticipated to occur numerous

years in the future, which increases the likelihood that actual results w

ill differ materially from

those indicated in such forw

ard-looking statements.

The forward-looking statem

ents made in or in connection w

ith this presentation speak only as of the date hereof. A

lthough we m

ay from tim

e to time voluntarily update our prior forw

ard-looking statem

ents, we disclaim

any comm

itment to do so except as required by securities law

s.

Reserves and resources

Estimates of non-proved reserves and resources are based on m

ore limited inform

ation, and are subject to significantly greater risk of not being produced, than are estim

ates of proved reserves.

Forward

looking statements

Discla

imer

Page 52: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

344

49 46

565

127

20172025

New

capa

city

49

382 532

101

20172025

Grow

th

Global call on U.S. natural gas

Business mod

el

U.S. supply push…

…and global dem

and pull

Source: W

ood M

ackenzie, Telluria

n Research.

Notes:

(1) Includes the Perm

ian, H

aynesville, Utica

, Ma

rcellus, Ana

da

rko, Eagle Ford

.(2) Ba

sed on a

dem

and

growth estim

ate of 4.5%

post-2020.

(3) Ca

pa

city required

to meet d

ema

nd grow

th post-2020.

3

5171

2046

75Bcf/d

Output from

selected sha

le basins (1)

mtpa

Globa

l LNG

production ca

pacity

mtpa

Takeaway

infrastructure

Required

Under construction

Other

U.S.

Supply infrastructure

Required(3)

29

(2)

150

Under

construction

221

Page 53: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

New

infrastructure required

Implica

tions for the U.S.4

13 Bcf/d of incremental production at risk of flaring w

ithout additional infrastructure investment

Source: EIA

; ARI; Tellurian analysis

Notes:

(1) $1,000/tonneaverage

§LN

G export capacity required

:―

Up to 100 mtpa: 13 Bcf/d

(20 Bcf/d

less ~7 under construction)

―~$100 billion

(1)

§Pipeline capacity required

:―

Around

20 Bcf/d

―~$70 billion

LNG

liquefaction terminal

Opera

ting/under

constructionFuture

Export capa

city

13 bcf/d

6

1

8

1

20Total estim

ated 2017-2025 production grow

th, Bcf/d

Required future investment:

§~$170 billion

§A

t least 7 Bcf/d

export capa

city

4

Page 54: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Continued shale revolution productivity im

provements

Sources:D

rillingInfo; Tellurian a

nalysis

5

Months on production

Delaware Basin vintage type curves

mcf/d0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

06

1218

2430

3642

4854

6066

7278

84

20112012

20132014

2015

2016

2017

2018

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,50020102012

20142016

20182020

Average Delaw

are Basin peak month production

mcf/dYear com

pleted

32%

CA

GR

Page 55: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

7.3

5.5

12.816.0

17.618.4

5.6

Permian gas projections

Notes:

1A

ssumes 80%

wet ga

s to dry ga

s conversion

6

Alternative sources:

§IHSM

arkit

§RBN

§BTU analytics

EoY2017

Grow

th to 2025

None

HighW

ell productivity improvem

ent scenarios

LowM

id

7-12%

CA

GR

Bcf/d

~15

11-15

15-17

Bcf/d

Wet 1gas

volume,

Bcf/d9.1

5-1416

2022

23

Page 56: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Tellurian pipeline network

Notes:

(1) Included

in Driftw

ood H

oldings.

(2) Currently not includ

ed in D

riftwood

Hold

ings illustrative fina

ncials (slid

es 8, 9, 11 and

12); comm

ercial a

nd regula

tory inp

rogress and

financia

l structuring under review

.

7Pipeline netw

ork

Driftwood Pipeline

(1)

Ca

pacity (Bcf/d

)4.0

Cost ($ billions)

$2.2 Length (m

iles)96

Dia

meter (inches)

48C

ompression (H

P)274,000

Status

FERC a

pproval pend

ing

Haynesville Global A

ccess Pipeline(2)

Ca

pacity (Bcf/d

)2.0

Cost ($ billions)

$1.4Length (m

iles)200

Dia

meter (inches)

42C

ompression (H

P)23,000

Status

Open sea

son: 2/21/18

Permian G

lobal Access Pipeline

(2)

Ca

pacity (Bcf/d

)2.0

Cost ($ billions)

$3.7Length (m

iles)625

Dia

meter (inches)

42C

ompression (H

P)258,000

Status

Open sea

son: 3/20/18

Bringing low-cost gas to Southw

est Louisiana

1

2

3

123Driftw

ood Term

inal

Page 57: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

0

100

200

300

400

500

20152016

20172018

20192020

20212022

20232024

2025

Dem

and pull

Globa

l LNG

Demand outlook

Sources: Wood

Ma

ckenzie, Tellurian Resea

rch.N

otes:(1) A

ssumes 85%

utilization ra

te. (2) Ba

sed on a

ssump

tion that LN

G d

ema

nd grow

s at 4.5%

p.a

. post-2020.

8

127 mtpa of new

liquefaction

capacity required by 2025

(1)

mtpa

Under

construction

In operation

Dem

and(2)

107 mtpa

Page 58: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Margins and price signals

Business mod

el

Netback prices to the Gulf C

oast (1)

Sources: Platts, C

ME, Telluria

n Research.

Notes:

(1) Forwa

rd p

rices for 2018 assum

ing $1.79/mm

Btuship

ping cost from

USGC

to East A

sia using Pla

tts JKM.

(2) Platts G

ulf Coa

st Ma

rker.

9

$5 $6 $7 $8 $9

$10

$11

Q1-2018

Q2-2018

Q3-2018

Q4-2018

Mar-18

Nov-17

Jul-17

2018 JKM forw

ard prices up $2.50 since July 2017

Avg. 2018

JKM price

up 42% this

year

$ 0

$ 5

$ 10

$ 15

$ 20

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

Jul

Jan

JulDriftw

ood LNG

FOB USG

C $3.00/m

mBtu

Apr 2018

GC

M(2)

12 Mar 2018:

$6.50/mm

Btu

20132014

20152016

20172018

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2018

$/mm

Btu$/m

mBtu

Page 59: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Driftw

ood LNG

terminal

Note:

(1) Engineering, procurem

ent and

construction costs before ow

ners’ costs, financing costs a

nd contingencies.

10

Driftwood LN

G term

inal

Land§

~1,000acres near Lake C

harles, LA

Capacity

§~27.6 m

tpa

Trains§

Up to 20 trains of ~1.38 mtpa each

§C

hart heat exchangers§

GE LM

6000PF+ com

pressors

Storage§

3 storage tanks§

235,000 m3each

Marine

§3 m

arineberths

EPC C

ost§

~$550 per tonne§

~$15.2 billion(1)

Artist rendition

Driftw

ood LN

G

Page 60: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Additional m

aterial

11

Page 61: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Plentiful, cheap U.S. gas endowm

ent

Implica

tions for the U.S.12

Production growth and resource base from

selected U.S. unconventional basins

Source: EIA; Tellurian analysis

411

112

74

23

52

Resource size, Tcf

Marcellus-Utica

HaynesvilleEagle Ford

Permian

Anadarko

7.37.9

20172025

7.313.0

20172025

24.633.0

20172025

5.66.1

20172025

5.810.2

20172025

50.6

70.219.6

20172025

Incrementa

l prod

uction

Total selected basin shale production,Bcf/d

Page 62: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Infrastructure first wave

Implica

tions for the U.S.13

As a result, industry built new pipelines, reversed old ones and developed the first w

ave of LNG

export projects

Source: EIA; W

ood Mackenzie, RBN

, Tellurian analysis.

0.3 Bcf/d

5.6 Bcf/d

2.4 Bcf/d

0.7 Bcf/d

LNG

liquefaction terminal

Export capa

city

Opera

tingUnd

er construction

2.6C

ompleted pipeline

reversals and new

construction, Bcf/d

1.7

Current LN

G investm

ent:§

~$60 billion §

9 Bcf/d export capacity

4.8

2.61.3

Page 63: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

The number of LN

G m

arket participants has grown rapidly

14G

lobal LN

G

FSRU technology is rapidly expanding the number of countries consum

ing LNG

Sources:IHS M

arkit

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

19901995

20002005

20102015

20202025

§Floa

ting storage a

nd

regasifica

tion units (FSRUs) provid

e emerging m

arkets a

fa

ster and

often cheaper

option than la

nd-ba

sed

termina

ls to begin importing

LNG

§By yea

r-end 2017, 40%

of import

ma

rkets utilized FSRUs

§IH

S forecasts tha

t over 50% of

import m

arkets w

ill utilize FSRU term

inals by 2025

Num

ber of countries

FSRU-only im

porters

Both onshore a

nd FSRU

Onshore-only

importers

Page 64: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Global gas com

moditizing

15G

lobal LN

G

Today’s LNG

market exhibits rem

arkable similarities to the global oil m

arket of late last century

Sources: SPE; https://ww

w.e-education.psu.edu/em

e801/node/455

Global oil

1940s1970s

2004-2005: BG builds

14 mtpa

net long portfolio w

ith 100%

destination flexibility

1980s 1983: Oil futures

trading begins

1940s: Vertically

integrated IOC

s dom

inate interregional trade

1970s: North Sea

becomes one of the first

fields without dedicated

downstream

market

providing destination flexibility

1960s1950s

1990s2000s

1970s-80s: Emergence

of crude oil markers:

WTI, Brent, Forties, etc.

1970s1980s

1960s1990s

2000s2010s

1959: First LNG

cargo shifts from

Algeria

2017: JKM financial

swaps volum

e quadruples year on year

1980s to present: oil is a globalized m

arket:§

Emergence of hedging/price risk

managem

ent products§

Financial trading grows to 500

million barrels per day –

dwarfing

physical trade

Global gas

Vertically integrated and inflexible

Vertically integrated and inflexibleRapidly com

moditizing

1973: Oil price shock

ushers in the advent of physical spot m

arkets, high and volatile prices

1980s: Oversupply

facilitates more

competition, the

emergence of

intermediaries,

fragmentation

Com

moditized and flexible

2011: Fukushima

increases Japanese dem

and for LNG

–spot prices clim

b and becom

e more

volatile

2012: Cheniere m

akes FID

on Sabine Pass LNG

all volumes destination

flexible and linked to Henry Hub

Page 65: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Sources:Kpler, M

aran Gas, IHS, W

ood Mackenzie.

Notes:

LNG

storage assumes half of fleet is in ballast, 2.9 Bcfcapacity per vessel.

Average cargo size ~2.9 Bcf, assum

ing 150,000 m3ship.

In 2017, approximately a third of all LN

G cargoes are estim

ated to be spot volumes.

Assum

es 12% per annum

demand grow

th.

Daily LN

G supply readily available across the globe

16Em

ergence of a liquid

LNG

ma

rket

488610

715894

20172020

Bcfof LNG

storage

# of LN

G

vessels

# of

cargoes load

edper d

ay

LegendLNG

carrier –

lad

enLN

G ca

rrier –unla

den

LNG

Storage -2017Ja

pan + Korea

termina

ls:633 Bcf

LNG

vessels:686 Bcf

1419

20172020

Page 66: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Grow

ing LNG

supply availability in all regions

Emergence of a

liquid LN

G m

arket

17

By regionG

lobally

47

20172020

Atlantic Basin

4 4

20172020

Middle East

68

20172020

Pacific Basin

1419

20172020

# of

cargoes load

edper d

ay

# of cargoes loaded per day

(1)

Source: W

ood Mackenzie, Tellurian Research.

Notes:

(1) one cargo represents ~3 Bcfof LNG

Page 67: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Driftw

ood Holdings’ operating costs

Business mod

el

Total anticipated cost of ~$3/mm

Btu locks in low cost of supply

$0.88

$0.36

$0.79

$0.22

$2.25

$0.75

$3.00

Drilling a

nd

completion(1)

Opera

tingG

athering,

processing and

tra

nsportation(2)

Contingency

Delivered

cost

Liquefaction

costTota

l

Sources: Wood

Ma

ckenzie, Tellurian Resea

rch.N

otes: (1) D

rilling and

comp

letion ba

sed on w

ell cost of $10.2 million, 15.5 Bcf EUR, a

nd 75.00%

net revenue interest (“NRI”)(8/8ths).

(2) Ga

thering, processing a

nd tra

nsporta

tion includes tra

nsporta

tion cost to Driftw

ood p

ipeline to m

arket.

18

Upstream cost

$/mm

Btu

Liquefaction cost

(1)

(2)

Page 68: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Mexic

o’s

Dem

and R

isks:

Am

id a

n E

volv

ing E

nerg

y L

andscape

Em

ily E

. Me

din

a

Page 69: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Energ

y R

efo

rm: M

exic

o’s

energ

y tra

nsfo

rmatio

n

A b

rief h

isto

ry o

f PE

ME

X

•P

EM

EX

was c

reate

d in

1938 b

y th

en-M

exic

an P

resid

ent

Lazaro

Card

enas

•N

atio

nal s

ym

bol

•D

eclin

e o

n P

EM

EX

’s p

roductiv

ity

The c

reatio

n o

f the e

nerg

y re

form

•A

ppro

ved in

Decem

ber 2

013 a

nd p

assed s

econdary

legis

latio

n in

August 2

014

•O

pen e

nerg

y s

ecto

r (explo

ratio

n, a

nd p

roductio

n) to

dom

estic

and fo

reig

n p

rivate

com

panie

s

Obje

ctiv

es o

f the e

nerg

y re

form

•T

ransfo

rm n

atu

ral g

as m

odel to

enhance e

nerg

y s

ecurity

•P

rom

ote

infra

stru

ctu

re d

evelo

pm

ent

•O

pen a

ccess to

pro

ducers

and u

sers

and p

rovid

e fo

r

com

petitiv

e g

as p

ricin

g

The m

ain

obje

ctiv

es o

f the e

nerg

y re

form

are

to tra

nsfo

rm th

e n

atu

ral g

as m

odel to

enhance e

nerg

y s

ecurity

, pro

mote

infra

stru

ctu

re d

evelo

pm

ent a

nd o

pen a

ccess to

pro

ducers

and u

sers

, and p

rovid

e fo

r com

petitiv

e g

as p

ricin

g.

Page 70: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Energ

y tra

de b

etw

een M

exic

o a

nd th

e U

S

Natural gas exports to M

exico from the

United States w

ere 4.6 Bcf/d in 2017.

Mexic

o is

the U

nite

d S

tate

s’ s

econd-la

rgest e

xport m

ark

et (a

fter C

anada) a

nd th

ird-la

rgest tra

din

g p

artn

er (a

fter

Canada a

nd C

hin

a). In

2017, tw

o-w

ay tra

de in

goods a

nd s

erv

ices to

tale

d $

623 b

illion.

Mexico accounts for 60%

of U.S. gasoline

exports....and 65% of U

.S. natural gas exports.

Page 71: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Overv

iew

of M

exic

o’s

energ

y m

ix

Mexic

o h

as s

ignific

antly

incre

ased n

atu

ral g

as im

ports

from

the U

S d

rivin

g a

n o

il-to-g

as fu

el s

witc

h in

the p

ow

er s

ecto

r,

whic

h is

help

ing th

e c

ountry

meet its

GH

G e

mis

sio

n re

ductio

n ta

rgets

.

Source:EIA,Mexicoenergyoutlook2016

Page 72: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Facto

rs d

rivin

g n

atu

ral g

as d

em

and

Natu

ral g

as in

Mexic

o h

as b

een a

nd w

ill contin

ue to

be in

dem

and. T

he M

inis

try o

f Energ

y’s

pro

jects

, a 3

.8 p

erc

ent in

cre

ase

in a

vera

ge a

nnual d

em

and fo

r the n

ext 1

4 y

ears

due to

ele

ctric

ity g

enera

tion d

em

and.

Page 73: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Mexic

o’s

mid

stre

am

build

-out

Mexic

o’s

dom

estic

pip

elin

e n

etw

ork

expansio

n p

lan, in

clu

des 1

2 a

dditio

nal p

ipelin

es (3

,200 m

iles) w

ith a

tota

l capacity

of 9

.7 B

cf/d

.

•S

IST

RA

GA

S, o

pera

ted b

y C

EN

AG

AS

, is th

e la

rgest

transporta

tion s

yste

m in

Mexic

o a

ccountin

g fo

r

10,0

68km

.

•C

om

isió

n F

edera

l de E

lectric

idad (C

FE

) has a

tota

l

of 4

,495 k

m o

f pip

elin

es u

nder c

onstru

ctio

n.

•T

he C

RE

is c

reatin

g a

transpare

nt a

nd p

rice

transpare

nt m

ark

et.

•O

n J

une 1

6, 2

017 it re

moved th

e p

rice c

ap th

at

PE

ME

X c

ould

charg

e fo

r natu

ral g

as.

•P

EM

EX

is re

quire

d to

rele

ase 7

0%

of th

e v

olu

me o

f

its g

as s

upply

portfo

lio.

Page 74: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Main

risks fa

cin

g M

exic

o’s

natu

ral g

as p

roje

cts

•P

olitic

al s

ituatio

n, M

exic

o’s

pre

sid

entia

l

ele

ctio

ns

•A

MLO

, frontru

nner in

polls

Left-w

ing p

arty

MO

RE

NA

,

(Natio

nal R

egenera

tion M

ovem

ent)

•N

AF

TA

•N

atio

nalis

t vie

ws

•C

ut o

n e

nerg

y im

ports

•In

cre

ase in

Mexic

o’s

dom

estic

natu

ral g

as p

roductio

n

•Land rig

hts

•P

rocess o

f media

tion a

nd consulta previa

•Irre

gula

rity in

land title

s

•C

RE

’s re

quire

ments

do n

ot m

atc

h M

exic

o’s

reality

•S

ecurity

concern

s

•V

iole

nce m

ost p

rom

inent a

round s

hale

oil a

nd g

as

reserv

es

•S

tiffenin

g o

f fuel in

pip

elin

es b

y n

on-s

tate

acto

rs

•In

frastru

ctu

re b

uild

-out c

halle

nged b

y n

on-s

tate

acto

rs

Page 75: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Op

po

rtun

ities fo

r the

US

in M

exic

o’s

mid

stre

am

bu

ild-o

ut

“Mexic

o’s

success w

ill mean A

meric

an s

uccess,

partic

ula

rly fo

r those w

ho s

ee re

al v

alu

e in

securin

g N

orth

Am

eric

an e

nerg

y in

dependence”-

Meghan L

. O’s

ulliv

an.

•A

ccess to

Mexic

o’s

libera

lized e

nerg

y m

ark

et

•M

exic

o’s

dem

and g

row

th o

ver th

e n

ext d

ecade

•F

avora

ble

geogra

phy a

nd lo

gis

tics

•T

he re

aliz

atio

n o

f North

Am

eric

an e

nerg

y

independence is

to s

om

e d

egre

e d

ependent o

n

the s

uccess o

f Mexic

o’s

energ

y re

form

goin

g

forw

ard

.

Page 76: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

UnderstandingtheFutureEvolutionofAsianGas

Markets:ChinaandIndia

GrowingtheAm

ericanNaturalGasProductionPlatform

EPRINCW

orkshop

AshutoshShastri,EnerStratConsulting,U

KLucianPugliaresi,EPRIN

C

April 19th2018

Washington D

C, U

SA

Page 77: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

1949-19591960-1978

1979-19911992-1998

1998-2008Today

HISTO

RIC

AL PR

OG

RESSIO

N O

F THE C

HIN

ESE OIL &

GA

S IND

USTRY

5thDivisionof19thPLAArm

yformedinto

an“OilCorps”

OilSelfsufficiency

viewedascriticalto

nationalsecurity

MinistryofPetroleum

Industryform

edin1955

ChinaImportsO

ilproductsfrom

Russia

RegionalPetroleum

Administration

Bureausformed

Oil&

GasproductionpicksupbutrelationswithRussiastartto

strain

5thDivisionof19thPLAArm

yformedinto

an“OilCorps”

OilSelfsufficiency

viewedascriticalto

nationalsecurity

MinistryofPetroleum

Industryform

edin1955

ChinaImportsO

ilproductsfrom

Russia

RegionalPetroleum

Administration

Bureausformed

Oil&

GasproductionpicksupbutrelationswithRussiastartto

strain

Chinalaunchesitseconom

icliberalisationpolicy(1978)

PAB-BigContractRegim

eStarts(1981)

MPIabolishedand

CNPCformed(1988)

Productionmatures

Oilim

portsrise

PABsbecomelegal

entitiesandde-centralisationexperim

entstarts

PABde-centralisationrecognisedasa“m

anagement

disaster”(1995)

Pricerationalisationtoalignw

ithinternationaloilprices

Industrylossesballoon,productivitydropsandim

portsrise

Bigbangindustryreform

(1998)

Petroleumindustry

equatedtoNationalSecurity

Re-centralisationthroughassetsw

aps

CNPC,SinopecGroupandPetroChinaarecreated(1999)

Growthininternational

activity

AbipolarCNPCbeginstotakeshape

Source: EnerStratAnalysis

Page 78: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

1949-19601961-1974

1975-19901991-2003

2004-2016Today

HISTO

RIC

AL PR

OG

RESSIO

N: IN

DIA

N O

IL & G

AS IN

DU

STRY

OilFieldsAct1948

Petroleumand

NaturalGasRules1959

FormationofO

NGC

RussianTechnicalCooperationProgram

mestarts

Conflictswithform

erim

perialcompanies

riseduetoconcernsofm

onopolies

Petroleumindustry

andnationalsecuritygetequated.

IOCxenophobiabegins

totakeshapeonthebackofm

onopoliesconcernsandtheIranCoupof1952

GoIstartstotakestepsfornationalisationofpetroleum

industry

IOCLiscreatedasa

nationalmarketing

company

1973Oilcrisesshapes

thedebateonstrategicsecurity,suspicionofforeigncom

paniesheightened.

NewNational

companiesarecreated

fromtheoilindustry

nationalisationinitiative

1974:OilIndustry

DevelopmentBoard

1976:BPCl1974:HPCL1984:GAIL1988:PetronetLNG

IOCsexitIndia

Aperiodcalled“thegoldenageofnationalcom

panies”begins,ONGCleadsthepack.

BalanceofPayment

CrisesinIndia(1991)

EconomicLiberalisation

Policyannounced(1991)

DGHasan“upstream

regulator”iscreated1993

NELProundsforprivatesectorparticipationannounced(1993)

FirstLNGdealissignedwithQ

atar(2002)

FirstLNGarrivesin2005

Newgasdiscoveries

inD6

TheReliancePSCsagaplaysout

TheLNGandPipelinesinfrastructurestartstopick(2010)

Source: EnerStratAnalysis

Page 79: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Source:IEEJ–EPRIN

C“FutureofAsianLNG”2017

Page 80: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Asean+India–

100MMTRangein2030Forecast

Source:IEEJ–EPRIN

C“FutureofAsianLNG”2017

Mostvolum

eriskfromIndia

Page 81: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Source:IEEJ

Page 82: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

ASEAN–LIQ

UEFACTIO

NandREGASCapacity--2017

Source:IEEJ–EPRIN

C“FutureofAsianLNG”2017

Page 83: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Transmission Pipelines

Existing Gas pipelines

LPG Pipeline

GA

IL’s Upcom

ing PipelineR

IL’s East West Pipeline

Other proposed Pipelines

LNG

Terminal

JAG

DISH

PUR

PHO

OLPU

R

BH

ATIN

DA

BAREILLY

DISPUR

DELH

I

AG

AR

TALA

BA

RO

DA

LUC

KN

OW

PATNA

AH

MED

AB

AD

RAJKOT

KO

TA

MATHANIAG

WALIO

R

UJJAIN

AGRA

KOLKATA

GAYA

BOKARO

VARANASIJHANSI

DAH

EJ I & II10 m

mtpa

CO

IMB

ATO

RE

MA

NG

ALO

RE

MU

MBAI

BH

UB

AN

ESHW

AR

KR

ISHN

APA

TNA

M

NELLO

RE

BANGALO

RE

KO

LHA

PUR

SOLAPUR

KA

KIN

AD

A

VIJAYA

WA

DA

DABH

OL

5 mm

tpa

KA

NJIK

KO

D

AURAIYA

GO

A

CUTTACK

VIJAYPUR KA

NPU

R

NA

NG

AL

GURG

AUN

PUNE

BH

AR

UC

H

SUR

AT

HYDERABAD RA

JAM

UN

DR

Y

BHOPAL

BARMER

Hisar

Jhajjarr

Dadri –B

awana –

Nangal P/L

Chainsa –Jhajjar –

Hisar P/L

DVPL PH

-II

GR

EP II

EWPL

KOC

HI

5 mm

tpa

Dabhol-B

angalore P/L

Kochi-K

oottanad-Bangalore-

Mangalore P/L

Haldia-

Jagdhispur P/L

CH

ENN

AI

TUTIC

OR

IN

TIRU

CH

CH

IRA

PALLI

DA

MR

A

JAB

ALPU

R

BH

ILAI

JAISA

LMER

TAPI P/L From

Pakistan

Surat Paradip P/L

HAZIR

A5 m

mtpa

Gas N

etwork in India

GA

S NETW

OR

K IN

IND

IA

Source: EnerStratAnalysis

Page 84: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

CICGDNETW

ORK–

23CITIESPROPO

SEDTOBE

CONNECTED–

56CITIES

CG

D N

ETWO

RK

OF IN

DIA

-THENEXTW

AVE

Source: EnerStratAnalysis

Page 85: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”
Page 86: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

CHINAGASSU

PPLYTO2040–

EIA(billionsofcubicfeet/day)

Page 87: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

TERMCO

NTRACTSSIGN

EDBYINDEPEN

DENTEN

TITIESSINCE2015

Source:S&PGlobalPlatts

Page 88: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

ChinaHistoricalandFutureNaturalGasDem

andfromVariousSources

Source:HowardRogers,O

IES,varioussources,2015forecast

Actualfor2017,258BCM

Page 89: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

CH

INA &

IND

IA: SIM

ILAR

ITIES AN

D D

IFFEREN

CES

KeySimilarities

KeyDifferences

PetroleumandGassectorsinbothcountriesareview

edas“victim

s”ofthemixedeconom

ymodel-thenom

an'slandbetw

eenplanned/centralisedgovernment

dominatedindustryandafreem

arketeconomy.

Bothcountrieshavechallengesofmanaginghigh

economicgrow

th,highpopulation,dangerousairqualityissues,lackofpoliticallyindependentinstitutionsandissuesofpolicytransparency

Bothcountriesarekeentoreduceconsumptionofhigh

emissionfossilfuels,developrenew

ableenergysystems

andfacedomesticpressurestoact.

Bothcountriespositthemselvesaslargeconsum

ersofcleanburningnaturalgas-bothare“talkingthetalk”

Bothcountrieshaveplanstodeveloptheirown

unconventionalresources.

Importantdifferencesinindustrystructure:w

hileChinahasverticallyintegratedregionalm

onopolystructures,Indiahasspecialisedandnationallyoperatingm

onopolystructures.

Bigdifferencesontheurgencyfordevelopinggasfiredelectricitygenerationcapacities:W

hileChinaissignallingaclearintenttoshiftcoalfiredgenerationtogasandatscale-suchsignalsarenotpalpableinIndia.

LargeindustrialsinChinaareemergingasdirectinternational

buyerswhereasIndianstateow

nedentitiesareplayingroleofdem

andaggregators.

Importantdifferencesintheoperationalstyleofpolicym

akersinbothcountries;especiallyw

hileChineseinstitutionsappearreticenttoopenlydiscuss[pricingreform

theIndianinstitutionsappeartobeopentodiscussion.

Chinawithsignificantinternationalpipelineinterconnection

systemshastheopportunitytoplayoffpipelinegasandLNG,

IndiawillbeaLNGdrivenplay.

Source: EnerStratAnalysis

Page 90: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

LN

G m

ar

ke

t

in S

ou

th

Ea

st

/S

ou

th

As

ia&

US

-Ja

pa

nE

ne

rg

y/

Inf

ra

st

ru

ct

ur

e

Co

op

er

at

ion

April 2018

Takeshi SOD

A

Special Advisor

Ministry of E

conomy, Trade &

Industry (ME

TI), JA

PAN

Page 91: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Natural G

as Dem

and in the world

73)GY

GRGX

GY

DJGY

",*+2

•3XOG

GIIUTYX

LUSUXYULI

TYIUTXS

YOUTMU

YNGTJ

ORRGYSGD

BDMSDNESGD

M@ST@

@RL

@JDS

NVSG(

Page 92: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

LN

G D

emand for A

sian region•

JSGTJ

LUUT

7563XOGT

MOUTOT,*-*

OXIY

JYU

SN(

SHLDR

SU

YNGTOY

GXOT,*+/

Page 93: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

LN

G m

arket potential in South East / South A

sia ①•

GHHOOHMDR

•HDSM@L

•W@ML

@•

H@MJ@

•S

UYC

SOTGR

UUX

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cJ

RUS

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JOTLGXY

IY•,/

-/OT

UMT

GYOUTSO

cIUS

YOYOUTOYN

IUGRGTJT

GR

"777

A5

Page 94: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

LN

G m

arket potential in South East / South A

sia ②•

@JHRS@M•

-@M@CDRG

•8BAD

"UGYOTM)IUTXY

IYOUTRUTM

YSIUTYGIY

•BYG

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OSUY

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Page 95: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

LN

G m

arket potential in South East / South A

sia ③•

@@WRH@

•3MCNMDRH@

•G@H@MC

•S

UYC

SOTGR"

GYOTM•BYG

RXOT

XXTOUTS

TY•7

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YOTYN

TG

LY

cI

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XOTXX

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X

"777

A5

Page 96: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Policy recomm

endations from IE

EJ/E

PRIN

C

1.DevelopingmoreliquidandflexibleLNGm

arketp

AA

Dp

2.PreparingforexpansionofUSLNGproductionandexportp

A,

Cp,

DC

Ap

AD

3.SupportingtheexpansionoftheAsianLNGmarket

pA

p

,A

DC

pA

D

•CN

UROIIUS

STJGYOUTX

LUS77

)7A

5DON

SDCYU

UYN@MC

4@O@MDRDNUD

MLDMSR

GTJJOXI

XXJGYYN

0YN

UJI

5UTXS

5UTLTI

UTIY+2

YN,*+1

OTCU

U(

Page 97: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

New

LN

GU

tilization M

easures

Capacity B

uilding

500 people

In 5 years

Finance$10 billion of investm

ent by Japan’s public

and private sectors

Liquid L

NG

Markets

InternationalC

onsensus on the benefits

of LN

G

lThe 6

thConference w

as held on October 18

th, 2017 with attendance of

12 ministers from

consuming and producing countries.

lM

inister Sekoannounced Japan’s contribution and com

mitm

ent ($10 billion financing and 500 people

capacity building) to expand Asian LN

G m

arket.

Announcem

ent at LN

G Producer C

onsumer C

onference

Page 98: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

US-Japan

Energy/Infrastructure

Cooperation

•U

Sand

Japanagreed

toprom

otecooperation

onthe

following

attheU

S-JapanSum

mit �

Nov 6, 2017

①To prom

ote Japan-US Strategic E

nergy Partnership (JUSE

P)under the Japan-US

Economic D

ialogue②

To collaborate on Infrastructure cooperation in third countries through financial cooperation betw

een government agencies

(i) MO

C b/w

ME

TI and U

STD

A, (2) M

OU

b/w N

EX

I/JBIC

and OPIC

<2 principles>(1)

Open and com

petitive energy marketare indispensable to ensuring secure energy supply

(2)U

niversal access to affordable and reliable energyis needed to help eradicate poverty, fuel

economic grow

th, and increase global security

<3 Geographic regions>

(1)Southeast A

sia(2)

South Asia

(3)Sub-Saharan A

frica

<4 Priorities>(1)A

dvanced nuclear technology(2)H

ELE coal technology, including CC

US

(3)Global m

arket for natural gas(4)Energy infrastructure

Japan-US Strategic E

nergy Partnership (JUSE

P)

Page 99: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

+*

JBIC

-Japan Bank for International C

ooperation-

The M

ission of JBIC

JBIC

's mission is to contribute to the sound developm

ent of Japan and international economy

and society by providing financing services targeting four main objectives:

lProm

oting the overseas development and securem

ent of resourceswhich are im

portant for Japan

lM

aintaining and improving the international com

petitiveness of Japanese industriesl

Promoting the overseas business having the purpose of preserving the global environm

ent, such as preventing global w

arming

lPreventing disruptions to international financial order or taking appropriate m

easures with respect

to damages caused by such disruption (M

arket Stability)

SHKNG

CRCP THHKEKCN20.

GXRSU

ESGKU

CIGPEY@L

DGGT

4GTLU

TYTGYOUTGR5UU

GYOUTa45b

@OHS@DB +/(/

ORROUT$8TSRS@MCHM

N@MR@MC

0PTHSW DB +-/

ORROUT$/HRAT

RDLDMS@L

NTMSDB ,,

ORROUT$$8F,*+0

Page 100: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

++

NE

XI -N

ippon Export and Investm

ent Insurance -

Scope of Business (abstract)

1)To conduct trade and investment insurance business operations com

plying with the provision

of Chapter III of the Trade and Investm

ent Insurance Act of Japan.

2)To conduct business incidental to the business stated in 1) above.

Purpose To efficiently and effectively conduct insurance business of covering risks w

hich arise in foreign transactions and w

hich are not covered by comm

ercial insurance

SHKNG

CRCP THHKEKCN20.

GXRSU

ESGKU

CIGPEY@L

DO

UT7

UYGTJ

TXYS

TYTX

GTI"

7E@OHS@

DB +(/ORROUT

8TSRS@MCHMBNL

LHSL

DMSDB

+./ORROUT$

MCDV

HSSDM,L

NTMSDB

0/ORROUT$

$8F,*+0

Page 101: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

+,

Cam

eron LN

G Project

SLGEU

1GTESKRUK

P-C

IGJI

CL

AJ

IC

EACI

CC

IC0,

GC

CEG

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0U

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PCP

:KRR

PB

TGP7CD

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UJGS&

CRCPGTG0

ORCPKGT-

0JKYC

0SR

SCUKP

UCN0HKPCPEKPI

.OPU-

1,

(O

KNNKP

/50CP

.OPU-

1)

''O

KNNKP

:2A5

5PTSCPEG

.OPU-

1)

'''O

KNNKP

:2A5

/50

Page 102: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

+-

CO

2-EO

R Project

SLGEU

1GTESKRUK

P--CG

GJAG

GNI

GJ

CC

1A2

GN12

IC

AN

LC

ICI

CAL

AAIG

IC

AAI

GI

JI

AG

EL

GEACI

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1G

GNEA

CI

SLGEU

0O

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A6

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P-4I

CI

II

CPKIPKPI-.JAN

RPT

ST-:2PGSIY

5PEA

:KRR

PKN

CT2XRN

SCUKP

0SR

SCUKP

UJGS&

CRCPGTG0

ORCPKGT-

4KNE

SR2PGSIY

0O

RCPYKUT

DKTJK4GC

Y5P

TUSKGTU

UCN0HKPCPEKPI

.OPU-

1)

'O

KNNKP

/50CP

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1(,

OKNNK

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12

Page 103: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Way Forw

ard: Our Plan in 2018

4@O@M4NHMS:DRD@

BGN

JRGNORCN

UXNU

XUT

DBGGT

IUUGYOUT

OT3XOG

OT,*+2

①4T

WHM

4@J@S@

3MCNMDRH@②

,TTRS

HMNJWN

4@O@M③

DOSDLAD

HM@RGHM

SNM/

0:3,0BNMNL

HB:DRD@

BG3MRSHSTSD

EN,

0,@MC

0@RS,RH@ NIDBSR

•:DRD@

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IOOTM

UYOROOTM

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L@RSD

O@M

JRU

STYLU

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DMBD•

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Page 104: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Th

ank

you

!

Takeshi SOD

A

(email) soda-takeshi@

meti.go.jp

Page 105: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”
Page 106: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”
Page 107: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

IPAAFrederick J. Law

rence

VP-Economics &

International Affairs

Page 108: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Oil Country Tubular G

oods

Source: Census and IHS M

arkit

Page 109: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Rig Count –M

ore with Less

Source: Baker Hughes

Page 110: Perspectives on Domestic Natural Gas Supplies and Productive … · 2018-06-04 · Play Associated Gas Production (Dry) (Bcfd) JAF2018_025.XLS Associated Gas from “Tight Oil”

Top Importers –

2017 OCTG

and LP

S.Korea697,086

1,062,1781,759,264

Mexico

160,131454,659

614,790

India392,950

8,900401,850

Canada175,442

183,929359,371

Germany

148,85658,617

207,473

Brazil47,340

158,285205,625

Argentina6,541

192,932199,473

Taiwan

60,113132,472

192,585

Austria0

163,569163,569

Russia30,839

127,508158,347

Japan54,104

89,930144,034