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2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 1 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS of The Draft 2015 CLRP Presentation to the Transportation Planning Board September 16, 2015 Item 9

Performance Analysis of the Draft 2015 CLRP Amendment

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2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 1

PERFORMANCE ANALYSISof The Draft 2015 CLRP

Presentation to the Transportation Planning BoardSeptember 16, 2015

Item 9

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 2

What is the Long-Range Transportation Plan (CLRP)?

The CLRP identifies regionally significant transportation projects and programs that are planned between now and 2040• Over500Projectsareincludedfromsimplehighwaylandscapingprojectstobillion-dollarhighway

andtransitprojects(includes7%morelanemilesofroadway,and14%moremilesoftransitrail)• Fullfundingtokeeptheregion’shighwayandtransitsystemsinastateofgoodrepair• ProgramsthataimtomakethetransportationsysteminMetropolitanWashingtonbetterandmore

efficient

Some specific projects in the CLRP include:• Metro’sSilverLine-PhaseII(inVA)• ThePurpleLineandtheCorridorCitiesTransitway(inMD)• TheH.St./BenningRd.Streetcar(inDC)• Approx.1,200newlane-milesofroadwayincluding

ExpressTolllanesonI-95inVA

• 20stand-aloneimprovedmajorhighwayinterchanges

For a complete listing of projects and programs in

the CLRP, visit:http://www.mwcog.org/clrp/

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 3

What is in the 2015 Amendment to the CLRP?

Key Technical Inputs to the 2015 CLRP Performance Analysis:• Round8.4CooperativeForecasts• “RegionallySignificant”TransportationProjects• Version2.3.57oftheTravelDemandModel• 2014VehicleRegistrationData(VIN)• EPA’sMOVES2014MobileEmissionsModel(WithTier3andupdatedCAFE)

Changes in the 2015 Amendment include:• Apackageof10lanereductionprojectsforbicyclelanesinDC• US1BRTfromHuntingtonMetrotoWoodbridgeinVA• ExpressTolllanesandbusserviceonI-66insideI-495inVA• ExpressTolllanesandbusserviceonI-66outsideofI-495toUS15inVA

• RemovaloftheDCStreetcar:MinnesotaAve.SpurinDC• RemovaloftheColumbiaPikeStreetcarprojectinVA• RemovaloftheCrystalCityStreetcarprojectinVA

*VDOTsubmitted2alternatives(AlternativeAandB)fortheI-66HOTlanesprojectsoutsideofthebeltway.TheperformanceanalysisonlyincludesAlternativeB.

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 4

Performance Analysis Topics

• Population and Job Growth• Mode Choice and Travel Demand• Roadway Congestion • Transit Congestion (Metrorail)• Job Accessibility • Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions• Regional Transportation Priorities Assessment

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 7

50%

14%

41%

25%2000

3000

Population(in 1000s)

4000

5000

1000

Jobs(in 1000s)

3000

4000

Outside of ACs

Inside of ACs

Outside of ACs

Inside of ACs

InsideCenters

Outside of Centers

Population1,289,000 New People

59%41%

Jobs

76%24%

2015 2040

Inside Centers

Outside of Centers

1,156,000 New Jobs

1000

5000

2015 2040

2000

Population and Job Growth in Activity Centers

• The majority of new jobs and population are forecast to be in Regional Activity Centers. • Though the majority of the regional population will remain outside of Activity Centers in 2040,

population is forecast to increase at a faster rate inside Activity Centers over the next 25 years. • The majority of jobs today are located in Activity Centers, and this trend will continue in the

future.

*Population and job estimates come from the COG Round 8.4 Cooperative Forecast

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 8

$79B

Population

Employment

All Trips

Vehicle Miles Travelled(VMT)

Lane Miles of Roadway

VMT per capita

Congested Lane Miles(AM Peak)

+24%

+36%

+22%

+23%

+7%

-2%

+72%

Transit Rail Miles(Metro, MARC/VRE, Light Rail) +14%

Transit Trips +34%

Expected changes in Land Use and Regional Travel2015-2040

0% 60%20% 40% % Change

VMT on Congested Roads(AM Peak) +70%

Bicycle and Walk Trips +49%

• The region is forecast to be home to 24% more residents and 36% more jobs in 2040. To accommodate growth, 7% more lane miles of roadway and 14% more transit rail miles are planned to be constructed.

• The total number of trips taken is expected to increase by 23%, while transit, walk, and bike trips together are expected to increase at a faster rate than single driver trips.

• The overall amount of driving (VMT) is expected to grow by 22%. This is slightly less than forecast population growth, which means that VMT per capita is expected to drop by 2%.

• The increase in demand on the roadways is forecast to out-pace the increase in supply, leading to a significantincreaseincongestion.

2015 Performance Analysis Summary

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 9

Mode Choice: Growth in Trips by Mode (2015-2040)

Growth in carpooling, transit, walking, and bicycling is expected to out pace growth in single occupancy driver trips, for all trips and work trips alike.

15%

8,1697,134

30%

2015 204020152040

Daily Travel - Growth in Single Driver Trips vs. All Other Modes

(trips in 1000s)

Single Driver All Other Modes12,875

9,913

18%

2,5472,159

39%2015 204020152040

Commute Travel - Growth in Single Driver Trips vs. All Other Modes

(trips in 1000s)

Single Driver All Other Modes

1,9011,365

Commute Travel - Growth in Trips by Mode(2015-2040)

389,000

159,000

274,000

Walk+Bicycle

Transit

HOV+Carpool

Single Driver

more trips 104,000 +72% From

2015

more trips

more trips

more trips

+33% From 2015

+40% From 2015

+18% From 2015 1,035,000

1,620,000

396,000

more trips 946,000 +49% From

2015

more trips

more trips

more trips

+34% From 2015

+24% From 2015

+15% From 2015

Daily Travel - Growth in Trips by Mode(2015-2040)

Walk+Bicycle

Transit

HOV+Carpool

Single Driver

WORKTRIPSALLTRIPS

New Trips - All Purposes New Trips - Work

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 10

Mode Choice: Share of Trips by Mode (2015-2040)

201523%

4%

11%

3,500,000Trips/Day

2040

4,400,000Trips/Day

57%

25%12%

6%

61%

20157%

11%

40%

17,000,000Trips/Day

2040

21,000,000Trips/Day

39%

7%40%

14%

42%

WORKTRIPSALLTRIPS• Despite faster growth in carpooling, transit, walking, and bicycling trips, the relative shares of all trips that each mode makes up aren’t expected to change much by 2040.

• For all trips, the share of single driver trips is expected to decline in favor of walking and bicycling trips.

• For work trips, the share of single driver trips is expected to decline in favor of increases in the share of carpooling, transit, walking, and bicycling trips.

Walk+Bicycle Bus+Rail Transit

HOV+Carpool Single Driver

Work trips account for 22% of all trips taken but 40% of all vehicle miles traveled, and this trend is expected to continue through 2040.

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 11

Mode Choice: Transit Constraint (2015-2040)

5000 1000 trips in1000’s

1,134

Number of Transit Work Trips in 2040Constrained vs. Unconstrained

1,099

2040 ConstrainedTransit Trips

2040 UnconstrainedTransit Trips

+35,000Additional

Trips

• In the travel demand model used to analyze future trends under the 2015 CLRP, Metrorail trips through the core of the region were capped to 2020 levels. Therefore, in 2040 approximately 125,000 trips that would have been expected on Metrorail have been reassigned to buses and automobiles.

• If the transit constraint is removed, 35,000 of the automobile trips could be taken on Metrorail, which would increase transit mode share by 0.8%.

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 12

Commute Travel - Mode Share By Regional Core, Inner Suburbs, and Outer Suburbs(2015-2040)

23%64% 11%

3%

24%61% 11% 4%

1%

14%

6%

79%

8%17%73%

RegionalCore

InnerSuburbs

OuterSuburbs

2015

2040

2015

2040

2015

2040

5%54% 18%23%

5% 14%

24% 56%

Total: 617

Total: 1,755

Total: 2,140

Total: 694

Total: 972

Total: 795

2%

5000 20001000 1500 trips in1000’s

• Throughout all areas of the region, the share of single occupancy vehicle commute trips is expected to decline between now and 2040.

• For commuters living in the Regional Core, walking and biking are forecast to become more popular. • The greatest number of trips will continue to be made by those living in the region’s populous Inner Suburbs.

• In the Outer Suburbs, carpool and transit trips will increase due to the presence of new facilities and services.

Mode Choice: Geographic DifferencesWork Trips By Regional Core, Inner Suburbs, and Outer Suburbs (2015-2040)

Walk+Bicycle Bus+Rail Transit

HOV+Carpool Single Driver

Regional Core: District of ColumbiaArlington Co.Alexandria

Inner Suburbs: Montgomery Co.Prince George’s Co.Fairfax Co.Falls ChurchFairfax City

Outer Suburbs: Charles Co. Frederick Co. Loudoun Co. Prince William Co.ManassasManassas ParkFauquier Co. (Urbanized Area)

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 13

Mode Choice: Geographic DifferencesDaily Travel - Mode Share

By Regional Core, Inner Suburbs, and Outer Suburbs(2015-2040)

6%42% 42% 10%

7%39% 42% 12%

7%

43%

1%

49%

8%45%46%

RegionalCore

InnerSuburbs

OuterSuburbs

2015

2040

2015

2040

2015

2040

25% 18% 32%25%

26% 26%30% 18%

Total: 2,980

Total: 9,272

Total: 10,999

Total: 3,756

Total: 5,111

Total: 3,693

2%2000 80004000 6000 trips in

1000’s10,000 12,000

All Trips By Regional Core, Inner Suburbs, and Outer Suburbs (2015-2040)

Walk+Bicycle Bus+Rail Transit

HOV+Carpool Single Driver

• The majority of all trips in the region will continue to be generated in the region’s populous Inner Suburbs. • Throughout all areas of the region, the share of single occupancy vehicle commute trips is expected to

decline and the share of walking and bicycling trips is expected to increase. • Compared to work trips, the share of carpool trips will continue to be substantially higher in all areas.• While the percentage of daily transit trips is forecast to double by 2040, this mode will still account for the

smallest number of trips in the outer suburbs.

Regional Core: District of ColumbiaArlington Co.Alexandria

Inner Suburbs: Montgomery Co.Prince George’s Co.Fairfax Co.Falls ChurchFairfax City

Outer Suburbs: Charles Co. Frederick Co. Loudoun Co. Prince william Co.ManassasManassas ParkFauquier Co. (Urbanized Area)

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 14

Changes in Population and Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT)

2015-2040

Population

+24%+22%

-2%Vehicle Miles

Travelled(VMT)

VMT Per Capita

• The total amount of driving in the region, measured in vehicle-miles travel (VMT), is expected to grow over the next 25 years, but at a slightly lower rate than population. This means that the average amount of driving per person will be less in 2040 than it is today, which is consistent with the TPB Vision.

• Though the drop in VMT per capita is slight, it is noteworthy because it signals the reversal of a decades-long trend of ever-increasing per-capita driving in this region.

The average amount of driving per person will be less in 2040 than it is today.

Travel Demand: Vehicle Miles Travelled (2015-2040)

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 15

Roadway Congestion

2,966

1,728

72%

Congested Lane Miles in The RegionAM Peak

20402015

10% 16%

17,000Total

Lane mi

18,000Total

Lane mi

Share of Lane Miles Congested(AM Peak)

2040201524% 33%

9.3MillionVMT

11.4MillionVMT

Share of VMT on Congested Roadways(AM Peak)

20402015

• Although the number of lane-miles of roadway in the region that are congested during peak periods is expected to increase substantially between now and 2040, congested lanes make up a small portion of the roadways in the region.

• Congestion on this small portion of roadways will affect a greater share of vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) as more and more trips are added to these highly traveled routes.

Congestion will continue to be concentrated in a few key segments of our region’s roadways, but impact a greater share of travelers and trips.

* Lane mile measure includes all facilities except local roads.* Roads are congested if Volume/Capacity>1.00

3,748

2,119

70%

VMT on Congested RoadwaysAM Peak

20402015 (VMT in 1,000s)

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 16

RegionalCore

InnerSuburbs

OuterSuburbs

2,267

100002000 80004000 6000LanesMiles

2040

12% 2015

18%

2040

2015

2040

2015

15% of lane miles congested

21%

5%

12%

2,300

9,000

2,300

9,700

5,700

6,100

* Lane mile measure includes all facilities except local roads in both directions.

* Roads are congested if Volume/Capacity>1.00

Share of AM Peak Hour Lane Miles that Are Congested

Roadway Congestion: Geographic Differences

• Congested lane miles will make up a relatively small proportion of the total lane miles in all areas of the region both today and in 2040.

• The total number of congested lane miles is forecast to go up in all 3 sub-areas with the greatest expected increase in the inner suburbs.

• The share of lane miles that are congested is also expected to increase in all sub-areas, but the highest rate of increase is expected in the outer suburbs.

Regional Core: District of ColumbiaArlington Co.Alexandria

Inner Suburbs: Montgomery Co.Prince George’s Co.Fairfax Co.Falls ChurchFairfax City

Outer Suburbs: Charles Co. Frederick Co. Loudoun Co. Prince William Co.ManassasManassas ParkFauquier Co. (Urbanized Area)

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 17

RegionalCore

InnerSuburbs

OuterSuburbs

2040

26% 2015

34%

2040

2015

2040

2015

29% of vehicle miles travelled that are congested

37%

16%

29%

Share of AM Peak Hour Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) on Congested Roadways

1,269

5,724

1,128

6,700

2,486

3,331

50001000 40002000 3000Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT)in 1000s

6000 7000

* AM peak period VMT converted to AM peak hour

* Roads are congested if Volume/Capacity>1.00

• Though a relatively small share of lane miles will continue to be congested, a higher share of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) will be on congested roadways in all areas of the region.

• In 2040, VMT on congested roadways will increase the most in the outer suburbs, followed by the regional core, and the least in the inner suburbs.

Roadway Congestion: Geographic Differences

Regional Core: District of ColumbiaArlington Co.Alexandria

Inner Suburbs: Montgomery Co.Prince George’s Co.Fairfax Co.Falls ChurchFairfax City

Outer Suburbs: Charles Co. Frederick Co. Loudoun Co. Prince William Co.ManassasManassas ParkFauquier Co. (Urbanized Area)

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 18

Increased CongestionI-70 East toward Frederick

Reduced CongestionI-70 East at I-270

Reduced CongestionVA-267 East

Increased CongestionVA-267 East

Increased CongestionI-66 East in Prince William County

Increased CongestionI-495 Inner and outer loops b/n the American Legion bridge and I-270

Increased CongestionI-495/I-95 South (inner loop) at the Wilson Bridge

Increased CongestionI-95 North Prince William County

Increased CongestionDC-295 South Beltway to I-395

66395

495

295

95

95

270

70

495

9566

695

370

200

295

MARYLANDMARYLAND

VIRGINIAVIRGINIA

DCDC

Frederick County

Frederick County

Prince WilliamCounty

Prince WilliamCounty

Prince George’sCounty

Prince George’sCounty

CharlesCountyCharlesCounty

Loudoun County

Loudoun County

FairfaxCountyFairfaxCounty

Montgomery County

Montgomery County

ArlingtonCounty

Arlington County

No Congestion

Congested Flow

Stop and Go Conditions

Congestion Levels

Though congestion on many segments of the region’s major highway system is expected to get worse over this period of time, some segments of highway will see slight relief in congestion thanks to capacity expansions or changes in travel behavior. Major highways seeing improvements in congestion include portions of I-66 East, I-70 East, and VA-267 East.

Roadway Congestion: 2040 Major Highway Congestion (AM Peak)

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 19

Transit Congestion: Metrorail Crowding (2012-2040)

Red

Blue

Orange/Silver

Yellow

Green

Line 2015 2040 with

50% 8-car*2040 with

100% 8-car

Extremely Crowded(>120 people per car)

Crowded(100-120 people per car)

Acceptable(<100 people per car)

MetroRail Congestion AM rush hour

*The 2015 CLRP assumes 50% 8-car trains in 2040

• AnalysiscompletedbyWMATAshowsthatfouroutoffivelinesenteringthedowntown core are expected to become congested or highly congested by 2040.

• Without additional capacity, WMATA estimates that the Metrorail system will reach capacity by 2040 on trips to and through the core.

Without additional capacity, four out of five Metrorail lines passing through the region’s core will be congested or highly congested by 2040.

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 20

Access to Jobs: Average Number of Jobs Accessible (2015-2040)

2015: 2040:

Average number of Jobs Accessible

2015 2040

918 939(in 1000s)

2%

50

1

29

50

301

1

29

340

40

29

50

15

15

301

66395

495

295

95

95

270

70

495

9566

695

370

MARYLANDMARYLAND

VIRGINIAVIRGINIA

DCDC

Frederick County

Frederick County

Prince WilliamCounty

Prince WilliamCounty

Prince George’sCounty

Prince George’sCounty

CharlesCountyCharlesCounty

Loudoun County

Loudoun County

FairfaxCountyFairfaxCounty

Montgomery County

Montgomery County

ArlingtonCounty

Arlington County

5 10 200Miles N

Signi�cant Loss <-300,000

Moderate Loss -300,000 to -100,000

Minimal Impact -100,000 to 100,000

Moderate Gain 100,000 to 300,000

Signi�cant Gain > 300,000

Change in # of Jobs within 45 Minutes

2015: 2040:

Average number of Jobs Accessible

2015 2040

398 543

(in 1000s)

36%

50

1

29

50

301

1

29

340

40

29

50

15

15

301

66395

495

295

95

95

270

70

495

9566

695

370

MARYLANDMARYLAND

VIRGINIAVIRGINIA

DCDC

Frederick County

Frederick County

Prince WilliamCounty

Prince WilliamCounty

Prince George’sCounty

Prince George’sCounty

CharlesCountyCharlesCounty

Loudoun County

Loudoun County

FairfaxCountyFairfaxCounty

Montgomery County

Montgomery County

ArlingtonCounty

Arlington County

5 10 200Miles N

Signi�cant Loss <-300,000

Moderate Loss -300,000 to -100,000

Minimal Impact -100,000 to 100,000

Moderate Gain 100,000 to 300,000

Signi�cant Gain > 300,000

Change in # of Jobs within 45 Minutes

AverageNumberofJobsAccessiblebyTransit

(In 1000’s)

• Though the average number of trips accessible by both automobile and transit is expected to increase,theaveragenumberofjobsaccessiblebytransitwillincreasemoresignificantly.

• The total number of jobs that are accessible by transit, however, will remain less than those accessible by automobile, because transit will continue to not reach all parts of the region.

The average number of jobs accessible within 45 minutes by automobile and transit is expected to increase between now and 2040.

AverageNumberofJobsAccessiblebyAutomobile

(In 1000’s)

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 21

2015: 2040:

Average number of Jobs Accessible

2015 2040

918 939(in 1000s)

2%

50

1

29

50

301

1

29

340

40

29

50

15

15

301

66395

495

295

95

95

270

70

495

9566

695

370

MARYLANDMARYLAND

VIRGINIAVIRGINIA

DCDC

Frederick County

Frederick County

Prince WilliamCounty

Prince WilliamCounty

Prince George’sCounty

Prince George’sCounty

CharlesCountyCharlesCounty

Loudoun County

Loudoun County

FairfaxCountyFairfaxCounty

Montgomery County

Montgomery County

ArlingtonCounty

Arlington County

5 10 200Miles N

Signi�cant Loss <-300,000

Moderate Loss -300,000 to -100,000

Minimal Impact -100,000 to 100,000

Moderate Gain 100,000 to 300,000

Signi�cant Gain > 300,000

Change in # of Jobs within 45 Minutes

Access to Jobs:Change in Access to Jobs by Automobile (2015-2040)

• Many areas, mainly on the eastern side of the region, will see declines in accessibility.

• These declines are the result of two important factors: one, anticipated increases in roadway congestion, which makeitmoredifficulttoreachotherparts of the region by car within 45 minutes, and, two, the fact that more of the new jobs anticipated between now and 2040 are forecast to be located on the western side of the region, more than 45 minutes from those living on the eastern side.

Significant declines in job accessibility by automobile are expected on the eastern side of the region.

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 22

2015: 2040:

Average number of Jobs Accessible

2015 2040

398 543

(in 1000s)

36%

50

1

29

50

301

1

29

340

40

29

50

15

15

301

66395

495

295

95

95

270

70

495

9566

695

370

MARYLANDMARYLAND

VIRGINIAVIRGINIA

DCDC

Frederick County

Frederick County

Prince WilliamCounty

Prince WilliamCounty

Prince George’sCounty

Prince George’sCounty

CharlesCountyCharlesCounty

Loudoun County

Loudoun County

FairfaxCountyFairfaxCounty

Montgomery County

Montgomery County

ArlingtonCounty

Arlington County

5 10 200Miles N

Signi�cant Loss <-300,000

Moderate Loss -300,000 to -100,000

Minimal Impact -100,000 to 100,000

Moderate Gain 100,000 to 300,000

Signi�cant Gain > 300,000

Change in # of Jobs within 45 Minutes

Access to Jobs:Change in Access to Jobs by Transit(2015-2040)

• Most places with access to transit, will experience increases in the number of jobs that are accessible within a 45 minute commute.

• However, in 2040 transit will still not be a viable commute options for many people in the region due to lack of access to transit facilities and potentially long travel times.

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 23

Air Quality: Mobile Source Emissions (2015-2040)

Ozone Season Precursor Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)

2015

2017

40

80

120

Tons/Day

160

2025

2030

2040

2010 Contingency Budget: 144.3 Tons/Day

128.3

91.1

2009 Attainment Budget: 146.1 Tons/Day

Alt A: 42.0Alt B: 42.1

Alt A: 28.4Alt B: 28.4 Alt A: 20.3

Alt B: 20.4

NOTE: The Mobile Budgets shown were developed in 2007, as part of the 8-Hour Ozone SIP, in response to the 1997 Ozone Standard. These budgets, as the most current approved by EPA, are required for use in any conformity analysis assessing ozone season pollutants.

TCMs and TERMS are not included in totals.

Ozone Season Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC)

2015

2017

30

40

Tons/Day

50

10

20

60

70

2025

2030

2040

62.4

50.7

2009 Attainment Budget: 66.5 Tons/Day

Alt A: 35.5Alt B: 35.5

Alt A: 25.2Alt B: 25.2

Alt A: 19.1Alt B: 19.1

NOTE: The Mobile Budgets shown were developed in 2007, as part of the 8-Hour Ozone SIP, in response to the 1997 Ozone Standard. These budgets, as the most current approved by EPA, are required for use in any conformity analysis assessing ozone season pollutants.

TCMs and TERMS are not included in totals.

Emissions of all criteria pollutants are expected to drop steadily between now and 2040.

• Emissions reductions are expected due to tougherfederalfuelandvehicleefficiencystandards.

• Changes in development patterns, investments in transit and other travel options,andimprovedoperationalefficiencyof area roadways will also contribute to reductions in vehicle related emissions.

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 24

Annual Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Precursor Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)

2015

2017

30,000

40,000

Tons/Year

50,000

10,000

20,000

2025

2030

2040

41,709 Tons/Year

32,790

27,400 Tons/Year

Alt A: 15,421 Alt B: 15,434

Alt A: 10,756Alt B: 10,762 Alt A: 8,103

Alt B: 8,111

46,064

TCMs and TERMS are not included in totals.

Tier 1 Mobile Budgets

Annual Particulate Matter Direct (PM2.5)

2015

2017

1,000

1,500

Tons/Year

500

2,000

2,500

2025

2030

2040

1,860

1,523

1,787 Tons/Year

1,350 Tons/Year

Alt A: 926Alt B: 926 Alt A: 811

Alt B: 811 Alt A: 720Alt B: 720

TCMs and TERMS are not included in totals.

Tier 1 Mobile Budgets

Wintertime Carbon Monoxide (CO)

2015

2017

600

400

Tons/Day

200

1,000

800

1,200

1,600

1,400

1,800

2025

2030

2040

Wintertime CO Emissions Budget: 1,671.5 Tons/Day

381321 Alt A: 223

Alt B: 223 Alt A: 164Alt B: 164 Alt A: 122

Alt B: 122

Air Quality: Mobile Source Emissions (2015-2040)

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 25

Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2e) Emissions

2015

*202

0

5

15

20

CO2e in 1,000,000s(Metric Tons/ Year)

25

30

10

2025

2030

2040

2012

2

6

8

CO2e Per Capita(Metric Tons/Year)

10

12

4 CO2e Emission Per Capita

Total CO2eEmissions

2005

* Year 2020 figures developed though interpolation between 2017 and 2025

22.6 22.519.7

18.421.3

17.7

4.4 4.1 3.7 3.3 2.9 2.7

4.7

22.6

• Total CO2e emissions under the 2015 CLRP are forecast to drop by 22% by 2040, while CO2e emissions per capita are expected to drop at an even greater rate of 44%.

• Asignificantamountofthegreenhousegasreductionsareduetonewtougherfederalfuelefficiencystandards. In addition changes in development patterns and investments in transit and other travel options will contribute to reductions.

• Currently no federal standards exist for greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions are not a required part of the transportation Air Quality Conformity Analysis.

Mobile Source Greenhouse Gas Emissions: (2005-2040)

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 26

Regional Transportation Priorities Assessment:

• The Regional Transportation Priorities Plan, adopted by the TPB in January 2014, identifiesstrategieswiththegreatestpotentialtoadvanceregionalgoalsrootedintheTPB Vision.

• The TPB has committed to using the Priorities Plan on a regular basis to assess the CLRP.

Priority 1: Meet Our Existing Obligations• The region’s commitment to

maintenance is solid: The CLRP demonstrates full funding for maintenance, operations, and state of good repair of the region’s highway and transit systems.

Priority 2: Strengthen Public Confidence and Ensure Fairness• Regional economic disparities

continue to affect transportation patterns:

• The TPB is seeking to improve public information and analysis.

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 27

• Individuals, on average, are expected to drive less in the future than they do today.

• Theregionhasunfinishedbusinesswhen it comes to maximizing use of existing transit systems.

• The region is effectively using its Activity Centers to focus growth, enhance non-motorized circulation, and improve regional connections

- DC bike lane projects

Priority 3: Move More People and Goods More Efficiently• The region is diversifying its public

transit systems by developing new, cost-efficientoptionslikeBRTandstreetcars.

- New BRT Projects in VA

• New tolling projects are managing demand while raising revenue.

- I-66 Projects

• Projects target bottleneck relief.

Regional Transportation Priorities Assessment:

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 28

Key Findings:

• By2040,theregionisexpectedtobehometo1.3millionmorepeopleand1.1millionmorejobs.

• MostnewpeopleandjobsareforecasttolocateinRegionalActivityCenters,andconcentratetowardthewestsideoftheregion.

• Growthincarpooling,transit,walking,andbicyclingisexpectedtooutpacegrowthintripsbysingledriversbetweennowand2040,bothforworkandnon-worktrips.Singledrivertripswillbethepredominantmodeoftravelforworktrips,buttheaverageamountofdrivingperpersonwillbelessin2040thanitistoday.

• Congestionwillcontinuetobeconcentratedinafewkeysegmentsofourregion’sroadways,butimpactagreatershareoftravelersandtrips.

• Withoutadditionalcapacity,fouroutoffiveMetroraillinespassingthroughtheregion’scorewillbecongestedorhighlycongestedby2040.

2015 CLRP Performance Analysis 29

Key Findings:

• Theaveragenumberofjobsaccessiblewithin45minutesisexpectedtoincreasebetweennowand2040forbothautomobileandtransitcommuters,butsignificantdeclinesinjobaccessibilitybyautomobileareexpectedontheeasternsideoftheregion.

• Emissionsofallcriteriapollutantsareexpectedtodropsteadilybetweennowand2040.

• TotalCO2emissionsareforecasttodropby2040,andCO2emissionspercapitaareexpectedtodropatanevengreaterrate.

• AssessingtheCLRPwiththeRegionalTransportationPrioritiesPlandemonstratesthat:

- The region’s commitment to maintenance is solid - Regional Disparities will continue to affect transportation patterns - Regional Agencies are planning projects that will provide new ways to move people and

goods more efficiently, but there is still work to be done to maximize use of the existing transit system.