37
803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH VRPH RI WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW TXDQWL¿DEOH GDWD IURP D ¿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a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¶V DULG FOLPDWH WHQV RI WKRXVDQGV RI SDS\UL FRYHULQJ WKH HQWLUH VSHFWUXP RI SXEOLF DQG SULYDWH GRFXPHQWV VXUYLYH IURP WKH 5RPDQ SHULRG %DJQDOO ,Q DJJUHJDWH WKLV FDFKH RI HYLGHQFH SURYLGHV D XQLTXH YDQWDJH²GRFXPHQ WDU\ DQG TXDQWLWDWLYH²RQWR WKH G\QDPLFV DQG SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH 5RPDQ HFRQRP\ LQ WKH ORQJ UXQ 7R EH VXUH WKH HYLGHQFH IURP 5RPDQ (J\SW ZLOO QHYHU FRPSDUH ZLWK VRPH RI WKH DUFKLYHV RI ODWH PHGLHYDO DQG HDUO\ The Journal of Economic History 9RO 1R 6HSWHPEHU 7KH (FRQRPLF +LVWRU\ $VVRFLDWLRQ $OO ULJKWV UHVHUYHG GRL 6 .\OH +DUSHU LV 3URIHVVRU RI &ODVVLFV DQG /HWWHUV DQG 6HQLRU 9LFH 3UHVLGHQW DQG 3URYRVW 7KH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 2NODKRPD 3DUULQJWRQ 2YDO 1RUPDQ 2. (PDLO N\OHKDUSHU#RXHGX , ZRXOG OLNH WR H[SUHVV P\ JUDWLWXGH WR DOO ZKR KDYH UHDG DQG PDGH KHOSIXO VXJJHVWLRQV RQ WKLV DUWLFOH LQFOXGLQJ 0LFKDHO 0F&RUPLFN 'RPLQLF 5DWKERQH 3HWHU 7HPLQ DQG WKH DQRQ\PRXV readers of this JOURNAL , DP HVSHFLDOO\ JUDWHIXO WR $QQ &DUORV IRU KHU PDQ\ WKRXJKWIXO FRPPHQWV DQG WR )HGHULFR 0RUHOOL IRU JHQHURXVO\ VKDULQJ XQSXEOLVKHG ZRUN , WKDQN P\ FROOHDJXH -HIIUH\ :LGHQHU IRU DXWKRULQJ 0DS $OO HUURUV RI FRXUVH UHPDLQ P\ RZQ

People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

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Page 1: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

803

People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt

KYLE HARPER

T

The Journal of Economic History

readers of this JOURNAL

Page 2: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

Harper

Roman Egypt provides a unique opportunity to deepen our understanding

extensive

3 The empire integrated different regions of

3

Page 3: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

Smithian

Schumpeterian

Page 4: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

Harper

timing and direction

8

of Yersinia pestis

8

Page 5: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

100 200 300 400 500 600

Year

FIGURE 1

Source

Page 6: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

Harper808

Page 7: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

denarius

Page 8: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

Harper

solidus in the

Most papyri of the

sesterces and denarii antoninianus denarii

Page 9: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

MAP 1

Page 10: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

Harper

Page 11: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

TABLE 1

Period Rents

3

30

Source

Page 12: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

Harper

denarius

solidus

TABLE 2

Source

Page 13: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

denariussolidus

artabai per solidus

expressed in Egyptian drachmai per artaba

artaba drachmaidrachmai artaba

drachmai artabadrachmai artaba

not

drachmai artaba drachmai artaba drachmaiartaba

drachmai artaba drachmai artaba

drachmai

drachmai

Page 14: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

Harper

R2 = 0.06412

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

- 50 100 150 200 250 300 Year

Antonine Plague

Plague of Cyprian

R2=.00009

FIGURE 2DRACHMAI ARTABA

Source

Page 15: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

drachmai artaba drachmaiartaba

denarii

denarii artaba

solidus

denariussolidi

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

300 310 320 330 340 350 360 370Year

FIGURE 3 DENARII ARTABA

Source

drachmai artaba

Page 16: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

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solidusartaba

artabaisolidus

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

350 400 450 500 550 600 650Year

FIGURE 4

Source

Page 17: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

Roman denarius denarius

drachma artaba

denarius

TABLE 3

n solidus

Source

even though

Page 18: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

Harper

In

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

100 200 300 400 500 600 700Year

Antonine Plague

Plague of Cyprian

Justinianic Plague

FIGURE 5

Source

Page 19: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

drachmai per aroura for the

denariidenarii aroura

denarii arouradenarii

solidi

drachmai arouradrachmai aroura

drachma

drachmai aroura

FIGURE 6

Source

Page 20: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

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before the

R = 0.02555

R = 0.05048

R = 0.84259

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

100 200 300 400 500 600 700Year

Antonine Plague Plague of Cyprian

Justinianic Plague

FIGURE 7

Source

Page 21: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

unskilled

one

30

30

Page 22: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

Harper

33

FIGURE 8

Source

Epistulae Vita Joannis Eleemosynarii episcopi AlexandriniLife of Abba Daniel of Scetis

33

Page 23: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

drachmai

that these are daily

drachmai

Page 24: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

Harper

metrematiaioi oiketai

Even though the metrema-tiaioi

Didymos Patron 1Patron 2

Patron 3

Gemellus

Titanianus AppianusHerakleides

Memphite

-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

50 100 150 200 250 300

Antonine Plague

Plague of Cyprian

FIGURE 9

Source

oiketaioiketai

metrematiaioi drachmai metrematiaioi

drachmai drachmaidrachmai

Page 25: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

de facto

R = 0.22703

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Daily

Monthly

Yearly

Antonine Plague

Plague of Cyprian

Justinianic Plague

FIGURE 10

Source

Page 26: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

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Novella

contractual not

artabai solidus

Page 27: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

38

artaba per aroura

drachmai arouradrachmai aroura

artabai aroura

38

relative

Page 28: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

Harper830

drachmai

only

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

100 200 300 400 500 600Year

Antonine Plague Justinianic Plague

FIGURE 11

Source

Page 29: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

100 200 300 400 500 600 700Year

Justinianic PlaguePlague of Cyprian

Antonine Plague

FIGURE 12

Source

Page 30: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

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both and

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

100 200 300 400 500 600 700Year

Antonine Plague Plague of Cyprian Justinianic Plague

FIGURE 13

Source

Page 31: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World 833

Page 32: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

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Appendix 1: Note on Accessing the Primary Sources Used

Quantifying the Roman Economy: Methods and Problems

Debating Roman Demography

Zeitschrift für Papyrologie und Epigraphik

Egypt in Late AntiquityJournal of Roman Archaeology

Reading Papyri, Writing Ancient History

Page 33: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

The Oxford Handbook of Papyrology

The Demography of Roman Egypt

The Kellis Agricultural Account Book: (P. Kell. IV Gr. 96)

Atti dell’Accademia romanistica costantiniana: XII Convegno Internazionale sotto l’alto patronato del presidente della repubblica: in onore Di Manilo Sargenti

The Black Death, 1346–1353: A Complete History

Arab ConquestQuantifying the Roman Economy: Methods and

Problems

Journal of Roman Archaeology

Crises and the Roman Empire

L’impatto della ‘peste antonina’

dell’incontro di studio, Roma 1988

Economie

par ses crises

The Periplus Maris Erythraei: Text with Introduction, Translation, and Commentary

Economic History Review

Journal of Economic History

Page 34: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

Harper

Tyche. Beiträge zur Alten Geschichte, Papyrologie und Epigraphik

Ancient SocietyThe Cambridge Ancient

History. Vol. 12, The Crisis of Empire, A.D. 193–337

The Cambridge Ancient History. Vol. 12, The Crisis of Empire, A.D. 193–337

OpusPreise, Mieten/Pachten, Kosten und Löhne im römischen

Ägypten bis zum Regierungsantritt Diokletians

The Economy of the Roman Empire: Quantitative Studies

Structure and Scale in the Roman Economy

Journal of Roman Archaeology

The Grain Market in the Roman Empire: A Social, Political and Economic Study

The Ancient EconomyThe Cambridge Ancient History. Vol. 11, The High

Empire, A.D. 70–192

In Debating Roman Demography

Journal of World History

Economic History Review

Money of the Incipient Byzantine Empire: (Anastastius I - Justinian I, 491-565)

ChironSlavery in the Late Roman World, AD 275–425

Page 35: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

Journal of Roman Archaeology

and the Coming of the Dark Ages

Wine, Wealth, and the State in Late Antique Egypt: The House of Apion at Oxyrhynchus

The Demography of Roman Italy: Population Dynamics in an Ancient Conquest Society (201 BCE–14 CE)

Oxford Roman Economy Project: Working Papers,

Byzantine Egypt: Economic Studies

The Later Roman Empire, 284–602: A Social, Economic, and Administrative Survey

Journal of Roman ArchaeologyThe Cambridge

Economic History of the Greco-Roman World

Law and the Rural Economy in the Roman Empire

Crises and the Roman Empire

Plague and the End of Antiquity: The Pandemic of 541–750

secolo d.C.: Atti dell’incontro di studio, Roma 1988

Crescita e declino: studi di storia dell’economia romana

L’impatto della ‘peste antonina’

Rivista di storia economica

Nomisma und Nomismatia: Beiträge zur Geldgeschichte Ägyptens im 6. Jahrhundert n. Chr.

Zeitschrift für Papyrologie und Epigraphik

Settimane di studio - Centro Italiano di studi alto medioevo

Page 36: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

Harper838

Journal of Interdisciplinary History

Journal of Interdisciplinary HistoryJournal of

Ancient History and Archaeology Olio e retribuzioni nell’Egitto tardo: (V-VIII d.C.)

Why the West Rules—for Now: The Patterns of History, and What They

NationsHommes et

richesse dans l’empire byzantin (IVe–VIIe Siècle)

Byzantinische Zeitschrift

Journal of Economic History

The Making of Roman India

The Cambridge Classical Journal

Economic Rationalism and Rural Society in Third-Century A.D. Egypt: The Heroninos Archive and the Appianus Estate

Coin

on Coinage and Monetary History, 25.-27.3.1993: A NATO Advanced Research Workshop

Economie antique: prix

The Cambridge Economic History of the Greco-Roman World

Modern World

The Oxford Handbook of Roman Egypt

Landowners and Tenants in Roman Egypt the Social Relations of Agriculture in the Oxyrhynchite Nome

Page 37: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The ......803 People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt KYLE HARPER 7KH SDS\UL RI 5RPDQ (J\SW SURYLGH

People Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World

Journal of Roman Archaeology

Journal of the Economic and Social History of the Orient

The Cambridge Companion to the Roman Economy

In L’impatto della peste antonina

The Cambridge Economic History of the Greco-Roman World

Byzantine Empire: A Systematic Survey of Subsistence Crises and Epidemics

The Roman Market Economy

Witness to Holiness: Abba Daniel of Scetis

Journal of Roman Studies

Krise, Rezession, Stagnation?: Der Westen des Römischen Reiches im 3. Jahrhundert N. Chr.

(525/526)