People Perception about Climate Change and People Perception about Climate Change and

Adaptation in the Arid Region of PakistanAdaptation in the Arid Region of Pakistan

Saif Saif UllahUllah KhanKhanProf. Dr. Prof. Dr. MahmoodMahmood--UlUl--HasanHasan

Prof. Dr. Muhammad Prof. Dr. Muhammad AslamAslam KhanKhan

Institute of Geography, Urban & Regional Planning, Disaster Management, University of Peshawar, KPK, Pakistan

The 2nd World Sustainability Forum 1-30 November 2012

Scheme of PresentationScheme of Presentation• Abstract• Introduction• Location of the study area• Methods and Data• Findings and discussions• Adaptation to climate change

– Water Sector adaptation– Coastal management – Agriculture – Forestry – Drought and Desertification

• Mitigation– Early warning system and monitoring – Raising public awareness – Improving R&D facilities:

• Conclusion and Recommendations• Acknowledgment

IntroductionIntroductionThe paper analyzes public perception regarding climate change and adaptation in the arid region of Pakistan 1961-2000 in terms of surface water, coastal management, overgrazing, deforestation, agriculture and livestock, drought and desertification, public awareness, emergency response, early warning system and monitoring, landuse change, waterlogging, and sources of energy etc.

Research declaration:• The gross per capita water availability in Pakistan was 5300 m3/year

(1951) that decline to 1200 m3/year (2000). • Due to decrease in precipitation of about 0.05inches (-1.27mm) and

increase in temperature of 1.6 0C (1961-2000), the climate in Pakistan shows a more vulnerable condition from 1961-2000.

Study Area LocationStudy Area Location• Aridity prevails over 676,400

sq.km area of Pakistan. The current arid region of Pakistan comprises of Gilgit-Baltistan province in the north, southern Punjab, whole of Sind, central and southern Baluchistan, and parts of Chitral and Dera IsmailKhan Districts in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province.

• Arid region extends northeast to southwest from latitude 370N into 23 1/20N and longitude

60oE to 75oEast.

MethodologyMethodologyVariablesVariables

• Precipitation

• Temperature

• Surface water

• Coastal Management

• Natural Disasters

• Agriculture

• Drought and Desertification

• Energy Sector

ObjectivesObjectivesThe main objective of the study is to know the public opinion and awareness about the climate change, causes, and adaptation in the arid region of Pakistan.

Research Questions:• what is the public opinion regarding

climate change, its impacts and how to cope with the problem?

• Are people of the arid region aware about this issue and willing to participate on the actions required?

Research HypothesisResearch HypothesisChanges in the temperature and Changes in the temperature and

precipitation in Pakistan have affected precipitation in Pakistan have affected

agriculture in arid lands of Pakistan agriculture in arid lands of Pakistan

severely and people perception is need severely and people perception is need

for the adaptation strategies to cope with for the adaptation strategies to cope with

the situation.the situation.

MethodologyMethodologyData collection

The work is based on primary data collected from the field questionnaire survey and personal interviews. The major questions are about temperature and precipitation fluctuation, deforestation, overgrazing, drought, desertification, landusechange, wars, crop production, population growth, construction of water reservoirs, river flow, environment policies, and willingness to cope with the climate change issue.As the security situation is not good in the entire arid region.Therefore, a questionnaire survey was conducted in the arid region of the lower Punjab, parts of Balochistan, Sind, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Upper and lower Khyber Pukhtunkhwa provinces taking into account random sampling method. The sample areas covers about 25 districts having different kind of desert landforms like pure desert, piedmont plains, irrigated desert, sand dunes, steppe, and barren mountains.

Analysis of DataAnalysis of DataThe work is based on primary data collected from the field questionnaire survey and personal interviews. The major questions are about temperature and precipitation fluctuation, deforestation, overgrazing, drought, desertification, landuse change, wars, crop production, population growth, construction of water reservoirs, river flow, environment policies, and willingness to cope with the climate change issue. As the security situation is not good in the entire arid region. Therefore, a questionnaire survey was conducted in the arid region of the lower Punjab, parts of Balochistan, Sind, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Upper and lower Khyber Pukhtunkhwa provinces taking into account random sampling method. The sample areas covers about 25 districts having different kind of desert landforms like pure desert, piedmont plains, irrigated desert, sand dunes, steppe, and barren mountains. It represents a clear picture of the entire arid region of Pakistan. The questionnaires were distributed among the students and teachers of the University of Bahawalpur, Peshawar, Karachi, and Quetta. The people who are surveyed and interviewed are including professors, lecturers, M.Sc and M.Philstudents, farmers, lawyers, and statisticians. Total of 150 questionnaires were distributed in which 130 questionnaires were returned with complete answers (Graph-1) and used for the analysis. Generally, approximately 6 questionnaires were collected from each district. A master sheet has been prepared from the public opinion that classified into tables and charts for the purpose of analysis and conclusion.

Natural Disasters (Floods) Natural Disasters (Floods) As Evidence of Climate ChangeAs Evidence of Climate Change

Kalam, Place of Origin

Nowshera CityCharsadda

Jehangira Chakdara Fort Sind Province

Natural Disasters (Land Slide, Snow Natural Disasters (Land Slide, Snow Avalanches & Tectonic Moment)Avalanches & Tectonic Moment)

Trapped 100 Pak Army, Skardu

Skardu

Land Slide at HunzaValley

Earthquake 2005

Physiography: GilgitPhysiography: Gilgit--BaltistanBaltistanBunji, GB

Gilgit City and Surroundings

Hunza, Valley, GB

Joint of Lesser Himalaya, K2, and Hindukush Mountains, near

Gilgit

Gilgit River

Gilgit River Indus River

Indus River

Physiography and Natural Vegetation, Physiography and Natural Vegetation, Sind, Punjab, and BaluchistanSind, Punjab, and Baluchistan

Mangrooves, Manora, Karachi

Umarkot, Sind

Chhor, SindKhirthar Mountains Sind

Arid BaluchistanArid Baluchistan

Gawadar Highway

Kech, Baluchistan

Chagai, Baluchistan

Mir Chakar Khan Fort

Baluchistan Coastal RegionBaluchistan Coastal Region

Buzi Pass

Gawadar Mastung

Sand Dues, Chagai

Precipitation DistributionPrecipitation Distribution

Annual Precipitation and TemperatureAnnual Precipitation and TemperatureGraph-4.2: Arid Region

Deviation of Mean Monthly Temperature and Precipitation from the Mean

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Months

Mea

n M

onth

ly P

reci

pita

tion

(Inch

es)

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

Mea

n M

onth

ly T

empe

ratu

re (0 C

)

Precipitation -6.1 1.1 12.2 -0.1 -10.9 -8.9 41.7 33.4 -4.1 -19.9 -23.7 -14.7

Temperature -11.6 -9.0 -3.9 1.7 5.9 8.9 9.0 7.9 5.3 0.8 -4.9 -10.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Graph-6.1: Arid Region Palmer Drought Severity Index Latitudes 250-300 North and Longitudes 620-720 East (1871-

2000)

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1871

1881

1891

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

Years

Palm

er D

roug

ht S

ever

ity In

dex

Results and DiscussionsResults and DiscussionsAnnual Decline in PrecipitationAnnual Decline in Precipitation

Graph-1: Arid ReigionAnnual Trend of Precipitation (1961-2000)

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Years

Dev

iatio

n fr

om th

e M

ean

Total Seasonal FluctuationTotal Seasonal FluctuationGraph-13: Arid Region

Total Oscillation of Seasonal Precipitation (1961-2000)

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

Seasons

Sum

of D

evita

tion

from

the

mea

n (In

ches

)

1961-2000 -0.05 -0.04 0.05 -0.11

Winter Pre-Monsoon Monsoon Post-Monsoon

Results and DiscussionsResults and DiscussionsGross per capita Gross per capita AvailabiltyAvailabilty

Graph-6: Pakistan Per Capita Availability of Water Resources 1951-2000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Years

Wat

er p

er C

apita

(M3 )

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Popu

latio

n (M

illio

ns)

Per Capita Availability 5300 3950 2700 2100 1600 1200

Population 34 46 65 84 115 148

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2000

HinaHina Lake, Lake, QuettaQuetta BaluchistanBaluchistanHina

Lake,WinterHina Lake, Spring

Season

Hina Lake, Dry Summer

Desert Landforms, Gawadar

Expansion in the Arid Region 1961Expansion in the Arid Region 1961--20002000

Water Sector AdaptationWater Sector Adaptation•• Water Conservation Water Conservation

–– Construction of new Water Reservoirs Construction of new Water Reservoirs –– Construction of Seasonal Reservoirs Construction of Seasonal Reservoirs –– Construction of Small Dams Construction of Small Dams –– Construction of Inland Dams/lakes: Construction of Inland Dams/lakes: –– Construction of Inland PondsConstruction of Inland Ponds

•• Construction of River Embankments Construction of River Embankments •• Well planned Drinking Water Supply Well planned Drinking Water Supply •• Improvement in the Irrigation system Improvement in the Irrigation system •• Public Awareness Using Mass mediaPublic Awareness Using Mass media•• Policy for Water Management Policy for Water Management •• Establishment of Research and Development fundEstablishment of Research and Development fund•• Planning for water resourcesPlanning for water resources•• Foundation of Arid region development CenterFoundation of Arid region development Center

Adaptation to Coastal ManagementAdaptation to Coastal Management•• To build up coastal management regulations.To build up coastal management regulations.

•• EarlyEarly--warning and response systems regarding erosion, warning and response systems regarding erosion, deposition, change in the coastal land forms, floods, cyclones deposition, change in the coastal land forms, floods, cyclones etc.etc.

•• Designing of mega projects for the purpose to purify the salt Designing of mega projects for the purpose to purify the salt and to save the costal region from water logging and salinityand to save the costal region from water logging and salinity

•• To develop airborne irrigation system for the entire arid areas To develop airborne irrigation system for the entire arid areas of of BaluchistanBaluchistan and and SindSind provinces using ocean water. provinces using ocean water.

•• To design projects for improvement of the sea beaches for the To design projects for improvement of the sea beaches for the tourism purposes in tourism purposes in BaluchistanBaluchistan and and SindSind. .

Adaptation to AgricultureAdaptation to Agriculture•• Development of agricultural infrastructureDevelopment of agricultural infrastructure• Crop choice • Investment in irrigation infrastructure:• Water saving technologies: • Basic technology needs • Crop yield and water management • Expansion in irrigation system

Adaptation to ForestryAdaptation to Forestry• National level forest policy and laws. • Comprehensive monitoring system for forests resources and

ecosystem• Protection of existing forest resources and other natural

ecosystems.• Strengthen controls on forest fires, insects and diseases.• Biodiversity conservation and restoration• Establish National Center for Forests and Wildlife on Federal

and provincial level. • Implementation of climate change adaptation taxes on

industrial sector.• Educate locals about the impacts of deforestation on the

physical environment using mass media and community program.

Early warning system and monitoringEarly warning system and monitoring• To counter flood and storms, local governments are

required to develop city flood control and water drainage plans.

• To introduce new technologies for the monitoring and early warning system for flood, surface water, earthquakes, cyclones etc.

• To improve the forecasting of weather for agriculture and also to develop new forecasting centers throughout the arid region to control drought and desertification, water flow etc.

Raising Public AwarenessRaising Public Awareness• All level of governmental officials, decision-makers and educational

institutions should be exposed to climate change information andwork toward raising public awareness.

• Pakistan is required to employ the power of the mass media to disseminate information about climate change through books, newspapers, periodicals, audio and video products, and the Internet. Government is needed to integrate knowledge about climate changeinto the education curriculum of the arid region.

• To establish an incentive mechanism to encourage public and enterprise participation, increase the transparency of decision-making processes related to climate change issues, promote public supervision, and encourage social groups and NGOs to play activeroles in the adaptation of climate change especially in Baluchistan.

• To strengthen international cooperation on public awareness related to climate change issues, especially good practices on climate change

information dissemination and education.

Improving R&D FacilitiesImproving R&D Facilities• Establish of Dry Land Research and Development Funds

on federal and provincial level.• R&D should be run through experts and highly

specialized people. • Promote scientific research and technological

development . • Establish effective incentive and competition

mechanisms and a favorable academic environment for researchers, foster academic leaders and eminent candidates.

• Establishment of arid region climate change science and technology management Center.

• Use of the multilateral funds from foreign governments and international organizations.

Adaptation to Drought and Adaptation to Drought and DesertificationDesertification

• Awareness of the serious deterioration of the natural resources in the areas around the deserts.

• Mobilization and exploitation of water resources in different parts of the arid region.

• Control on the far reaching change in the land use of the arid region.

• Establishment of emergency response plan.• Storage of rainy water in pools or artificial ponds.• Plantation of drought resistant crops and vegetation.• To introduce comprehensive soil management techniques and

technologies.• Matching of soil types with appropriate crops and to educate

the locals regarding the crops and soil matching process.• To grow plantation forests, especially the acacia tree, in the

surroundings of the arid region to control desertification.

Conclusion and RecommendationsConclusion and Recommendations• To control deforestation, population growth, and over grazing.• To control atmospheric pollution, addition of chlorofluorocarbons, wars in the entire

region, nuclear conflicts, and vehicle emissions.• To introduce early warning system for floods and drought. • To prefer construction of new dams and barrages for the storage of flood water. • To take action for the depletion of underground water.• To aware the public regarding the impact of climate change using mass media and to

include climate change concept in the curriculum at school level.• To reserve funds for reforestation on mountains and to control deforestation in the

entire region.• To convince people for individual struggle and to preserve the national resources. • To decrease the multiple cropping on agriculture land in the arid region. • To introduce modern machinery for the cultivation of crops in the arid region.• To encourage usage of natural gas or solar energy instead of petroleum, coal, and

forests. • To increase literacy ratio and community based programs for the awareness of people

regarding climate change.• To revise environmental policy and to make sure Implementation of environmental laws

on national level.

Thank You