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PEO / SYSCOM Commander’s Conference
Mr. Rob BrownAssistant Deputy For Program Integration
Missile Defense Agency
20-22 NOV 02
ms-104504 / 111802
2ms-104504 / 111802
BALLISTIC MISSILE CAPABILITY – 2002
China CSS-2, CSS-3, CSS-4, CSS-5, CSS-6, CSS-7,
JL-2*, CSS-NX-3*, DF-31*, DF-31A*
Pakistan Hatf-I,
Hatf III, Shaheen I, Shaheen II,
GhauriSaudi Arabia
CSS-2
Yemen Scud-B,
SS-21
Egypt Scud-B
Israel Jericho I, Jericho II
Libya Scud-B
Bulgaria Scud-B, SS-23
Syria Scud-B, Scud-C,
SS-21
Russia Scud-B,
SS-18, SS-19, SS-21, SS-25, SS-26, SS-27,
SS-N-8, SS-N-18, SS-N-20, SS-N-23
North Korea Scud-B, Scud-C, ND-1,
TD-1, TD-2
South Korea NHK
Afghanistan Scud-B
Vietnam Scud-B
Belarus Scud-B, SS-21
Slovakia SS-21, SS-23
Ukraine Scud-B, SS-21
India Prithvi I, Prithvi II, Dhanush, Agni II,
Sagarika*
Poland Scud-B
Czech Republic SS-21
UAE Scud-B
Kazakhstan Scud-B, SS-21
France M-45
UK Trident D-5
Iran Scud-B, CSS-8,
Shahab-3Turkmenistan
Scud-B
* Missiles In Development
Iraq Al Samoud
3ms-104504 / 111802
BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE CHALLENGE
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0 1,300 0 3,500 >5,50000
Alt
itu
de (
km)
Medium Range Ballistic Missile
(MRBM)
Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile
(IRBM)
Range (km)0 600
Short Range Ballistic Missile
(SRBM)
Terminal
Boost
Midcourse
Consequence Management
• Thousands Built, Widely Available• Commonly Land-launched• Sea-based Launch Demonstrated By Iran, India
• Many Exist In Third World• More On The Way
• A Few Exist In Third World• Not Yet Tested As Ballistic
Missiles
Intercontinental Ballistic Missile
(ICBM)
DeploymentReentry
Burnout
Pre-Boost
5ms-104504 / 111802
BMD SYSTEM
Terminal Defense Segment
Launch Impact
Boost Defense Segment •Defends Localized Areas And Critical Assets
•Destroys Missile Regardless Of Aim Point- Potential For Global
Defense
SRBMs MRBMs / IRBMs ICBMs
•Multiple Engagement Opportunities Increase Likelihood Of Success•Complicates Efforts Of Adversaries•Overcomes Countermeasures
Midcourse Defense Segment• Defends Wide Regions• Longer Engagement
Opportunities
7ms-104504 / 111802
MIDCOURSE SEGMENT ELEMENTS
Missile Defense Communications Net
GBI
DSP/SBIRSHigh
Space Based Infrared System / Low Component
Defense Support Program/Space Based Infrared System
High Component
X-band RadarKill Vehicle
Battle Management / Command, Control
Early Warning Radars
Command & ControlTactical Data Link
Networks
SPY-1 Radar
STANDARD Missile (SM-3)Four Stage
Hit-to-Kill Missile
STANDARD Missile (SM-3)Four Stage
Hit-to-Kill Missile
Aegis Weapon System
Vertical Launching
System
Vertical Launching
System
Maintenance & Training
Maintenance & Training
Ground-Based Sea-Based
Interceptor
8ms-104504 / 111802
TERMINAL DEFENSE
PATRIOT PAC-3
Sea-Based Terminal Concept Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS)
THAAD Arrow
9ms-104504 / 111802
INTEGRATED BMDS ENVIRONMENT
ENEMYMISSILE
Response Timeliness Critical• SRBM – <3 minutes• MRBM – <5 minutes• IRBM – <10 minutes• ICBM – <20 minutes
Supporting CC JFACC/AADC
(Korea)
ABL
AEGIS
BMDS BMC2/C
PAC-3
Assigned Forces
Supporting CCAADC/RADC
(PACOM)
NORTHCOMCC
NORAD/BMDS Cell
STRATCOMCC
STRAT Ops Center
BMDS BMC2/C
•
UEWR &CD
GBIXBR
GBMC2
BMDS BMC2/C
Bridging Multiple Command Systems Into An Integrated BMDS System With Overarching C2
GlobalCommand
System
BMDS BMC2/C
10ms-104504 / 111802
THE PROBLEM
• Developing Missile Defenses Takes Time (10+ Years For The PAC-3) And Requirements Can Become Outmoded
• Must Expect To Be Surprised By Changes In Threat
• Cannot Know With Confidence What Nation, Combination Of Nations, Or Non-state Actors Will Pose Threats To Vital U.S. Interests Or Those Of U.S. Allies And Friends
• Can Anticipate Capabilities An Adversary Might Employ To Coerce Neighbors, Deter The U.S. From Acting, Or Directly Attack The U.S. Or Its Deployed Forces
11ms-104504 / 111802
PROGRAM STATUS As Of March 2001
DocumentsAPB TEMP SAMP ORD
Breach Out Of Date Current
APR 98
MAY 98
JUN 00
1999
MAY 00
DEC 99
APR 96
Navy Area
PAC-3
THAAD
NTW
NMD
ABL
SBIRS-Low
OCT 99 – Cost And Schedule Breach
MAR 00 – Cost And Schedule Breach
JUN 00
1999
MAR 00 – Pending ADM Current
Program
MAY 99 – Cost And Schedule Breach
AUG 99 – Update Cost Estimates And
Approve
JAN 97 – Rev 2 Draft Now In Development
SEP 00 – New TEMP In Coordination
JUN 00
1999 – ALI Only
JUN 99
NOV 96 – New Revisions In Process
JUN 98 – Does Not Reflect Acceleration
FEB 97 – Need To Revise Exist Criteria
APR 97 – Acquisition Strategy
JUN 00
1999 – Based Upon 99 Block I FUE – FY 07
MAY 00
NOV 96 – New Revisions In Coordination
OCT 96 – To Be Updated After Next
DAES Review
12ms-104504 / 111802
MISSILE DEFENSE PROGRAM DIRECTION 2 January 2002 SecDef Memo
• Employ A Ballistic Missile Defense System That Layers Defenses To Intercept Missiles In All Phases Of Their Flight Against All Ranges Of Threat
• Establish A Single Program To Develop An Integrated System Under A Newly Titled Missile Defense Agency (MDA)
• MDA To Develop The Missile Defense System. Military Departments To Procure And Provide For Operation And Support
• Current Missile Defense ORDS Are Hereby Cancelled - Apply A Capability-based Requirements Process For Missile Defense
• Assign The Best And Brightest People
13ms-104504 / 111802
CAPABILITY BASED PLANNING (CBP)
• Planning, Under Uncertainty, To Provide Capabilities Suitable For A Wide Range Of Modern-Day Challenges And Circumstances While Working Within An Economic Framework That Necessitates Choice
• Key Elements
- Understanding Needs- Assessing Options At Mission Or Operational Level- Choosing Capability Levels And Options In An
Integrative Framework That Considers Other Factors, Types Of Risk, And Economic Limitations- A Solution Framework That Emphasizes “Building
Blocks”
14ms-104504 / 111802
BMD EVOLUTIONARY DEVELOPMENT
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014CY 2013 201520112009200720052003
Evolutionary Spiral Development
Block 2004
Block 2006
Block 2008
Block 2010
Block 2012
Block 2014
• Add New Capability Based On Technical Maturity
• Upgrade Existing Capability – Insert Technology
• Evolve Requirements
• Procure Additional Force – Enhance Capability
• Extend To Allies And Friends When Appropriate
• Plan
• Execute
• AdjustFeedback
15ms-104504 / 111802
BMDS BLOCK APPROACH
BMDS Development
Transition
Transition
Services
MDA
Block YY Block ZZ
Transition
Elem
ent B
lock C
onfigu
ration
Elem
ent
Elem
ent
Procurement And Operations
Procurement And Operations
Procurement And Operations
Inherent Emergency Capability
Block XX
16ms-104504 / 111802
MDA
Services
MISSILE DEFENSE RELATIONSHIPS
Moving From Traditional Roles / ResponsibilitiesTo A Collaborative Team Approach
• Service BoD• Liaison Office- Multi-mission - Interface Mgmt
CombatantCommanders
• Joint Warfighter Support- Exercise Support- Contingency - Planning
• JTAMDO- CRD-ORD- Integration- Joint CONOPS- Ops Concept Team
17ms-104504 / 111802
REQUIREMENTS-BASED VERSUSCAPABILITY-BASED
MissionNeeds
Statement
SystemThreat
AssessmentReport(STAR)
OperationalRequirements
Document(ORD)
Requirements-BasedDesign Process System
RequirementsDocument
(SRD)
B-Spec
C-Spec
D-Spec
PrimeContractor
TechnicalObjectivesAnd Goals
(TOG)
AdversaryCapabilitiesDocument
(ACD)
BMDCapabilitiesAssessment
Capability-BasedDesign Process
SystemCapability
Specification
ElementSpecification
Elements
System Evolution
(Block) Plan
“Capability-Based ORD”
18ms-104504 / 111802
TECHNICAL OBJECTIVES ANDGOALS (TOG) FRAMEWORK
Flexible
Effective
Affordable
Compatible
Demonstrable
Evolution Of CONOPS
• Probability Of Engagement Success (PES)• Defended Area
• Launch Area Denied
Robust • Survivability • Robustness To Threat • Vulnerability
• Adaptable
• Utilize Information
• Test Realism• Measurable Test Results
• Planning, Execution And Coordination
Quality
Schedule • Date Available
BMDS Technical / Operational Objectives
SecDef Program Direction
Limit A Priori Knowledge
Operational Metrics
• Unit Life Cycle Cost • Budget Effectiveness
• Exchange Information
• Evolvable • Growable
• Does / Does Not Rely On A Priori Knowledge
Operational Goals
Technical MetricsTechnical Goals• Hardware / Software• Readiness Levels (Technical / Integration /
Engineering and Manufacturing)
• Cost Effectiveness
• Human Factors Design• Human Impact On Timeline• Supportability
19ms-104504 / 111802
THREAT APPROACH
• Review Available Evidence-Based Parameter Bounds
- Ballistic Missile Reference Document, Strategic Ballistic Missile Reference Document, System Threat Assessments, Other Intel Documents
- Set Intel-Based Parameter Bounds
• Consider Design Space Variations - Review Engineering Technologies And What Is
Technically Feasible To Set The Engineering Bounds
• Determine Bounds Based On Physics
Evidence-Based (Intel)
Engineering-Based
Physics-Based
20ms-104504 / 111802
CAPABILITY-BASED SPECIFICATION DEVELOPMENT
OPTIONS
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
Vn
OPTIONS
TOGRed/White/Blue/Black
OPTIONS
RISK
CA
PA
BIL
ITY
Low
Hig
h
System Operational Capability Document
ThreatDescriptionDocument
ElementOperational Capability Document
Element Capability
Specification
RISK
CA
PA
BIL
ITY
Low
Hig
h
+Selected Option Documentation
Element Specification
BMDSEvolution
PlanWith What Against What
Selected Capabilities
Department Guidance,SecDef Memo, DPG, . .
SYSTEM SPECIFICATION
Whichare
Better?
Whichare
Best?
Low HighRISK
CA
PA
BIL
ITY
Low
Hig
h
Time
BMDSCapability
Specifications
AdversaryCapability Document
OtherCapabilit
y
AdvancedConcepts
System Definition
Review
ConfigurationControlBoard
+
Low High Time
Low High Time
What To Do
System &Element
Verification
Whatis
Possible?
To Development and Test
To Development and Test
21ms-104504 / 111802
THE PATHS OF WARFIGHTER INPUT
• C2/BM/C Military Utility Assessment (MUA)
• BMDS MUA
What How WhoTOG Efforts
• Desired Capabilities
• OperationalApproaches
• Element EOCs• IMD CONOPS
• Operational Concepts, Architectures, And Requirements
• OPS Construct• Employment Concepts• C2/BM/C Employment
Concepts
• Product Support Annex• DOTMLPF
• Suitability And Supportability
• Production Quantities And Force Levels
Service Liaison Teams And Boards Of Directors
Service Liaison Teams And Boards Of Directors
• C2/BM/C-X
• MUA WIPT/JTAMD Process
• JNIC
• JTAMDO, MDA, JFCOM, Services
• Block Activation Plan (BAP)• JTAMD Process
• OAR WIPT/JTAMD Process
• MDNTB• Prototyping IPT• C2/BM/C-X
• Operations Concept Team (OCT)
• JTAMDO, MDA, JFCOM, Service
• JTAMDO, MDA, JFCOM, Services
• OCT• MDNTB• JNIC
• Block Activation Plan (BAP)• DOTMLPF WIPT/JTAMD
Process
• Product Support Team (PST)• JTAMDO, MDA, JFCOM,
Services
Sem
inars , T
able T
ops, E
xperim
ents, E
xercis es, Wargam
es
22ms-104504 / 111802
NATIONAL TEAM
GovernmentWith FFRDC, SETA
BMDS Configuration Control BoardFire WallB
oein
g
Ray
theo
n
TR
W
Nor
thro
p
Gru
mm
an
Gen
eral
D
ynam
ics
Gov’t/Lockheed Martin
BM/C2 NT Industry Leader
Loc
kh
eed
M
arti
n
Ray
theo
n
TR
W
Nor
thro
p
Gru
mm
an
Gen
eral
D
ynam
ics
SystemLevel
ElementLevel
GMD
System Guideline And Specification
ABL THAAD Program X
Gov’t/Boeing
SE&I NT Industry Leader
BMDS SCS
NTExec Council
C2BMC SCS
…
C2BM Integration“Glue Ware”
Coordination And Support On System Level Matters
Information, Data Reporting
23ms-104504 / 111802
BLOCK INTEGRATEDMASTER PLAN EVENTS
Event 0 – Block Capability Alternatives
Event 1 – Preliminary Configuration Definition
Event 2 – Configuration Definition
Event 3 – Element / Component Verification Initiation(Prototype Development)
Event 4 – Integrated Test Readiness Review
Event 5 – Interim Test And Progress Review
Event 6 – Element / Component Transition Decision Point(s)
Event 7 – Block Certification Of Military Utility
24ms-104504 / 111802
ELEMENT AND BLOCK TRANSFER
0 1 5 6 7
6
2 3 4
Block Transfer Path
Block Capabilities Certified
Available For Transition
Early Element Capabilities
Transition To Service
Element Transfer Path
Capability Alternatives
Block Planning / Element Development
Block Test Review / Decision Point
Element Decision Point
Capability Transfer To Service
25ms-104504 / 111802
BLOCK INTEGRATED MASTER PLAN
(EO)n – Block Capability Alternatives•Block Planning Process Completed•Long Lead Targets, Tests And Exercises Identified•Affordability Analysis Completed•Preliminary Block Plan Approved
E1 – Preliminary Configuration Definition•Preliminary Block Description Approved•Technology Readiness Levels Assessed•Performance Assessments Updated•Risks Assessed And Mitigation Programs Established•Detailed Cost Estimates For Elements / Components Available•Cost / Benefit Analysis Updated• Integration / Test Objectives Defined•Element / Component PDRs Completed•Required Funding Identified• IMS Created
E2 – Configuration Definition•CDRs Complete For All Element / Component / Targets Programs Completed•Performance / Cost Estimates Updated•Risks Assessed And Mitigation Programs Updated•Military Utility Characterized And CONOPS Refined•Preliminary Integration Test Plan Available•Funding Available And Resources Allocated•Block Definition Updated• IMS Updated
E3 – First Development Article•First Development Article Built And Initial Tests Completed•Targets Built And Tests Completed•Test Range And Support Planning Completed•CONOPS Defined And OPS Architecture Available•Funding And EAC Assessed
Tailored To Individual Block Composition
E4 – Integrated Test Readiness Review•Block Integration And Test Planning Completed•Element / Component Test And Checkout Completed•Target Test And Checkout Completed•BMDS Tactics, Techniques And Procedures For Designated User Defined•Funding Updated And EAC Updated•Operational Characterization Of Element Completed•Operational Certification Of Element Completed
E5 – Interim Test And Progress Review•50% Of System Test Objectives Accomplished•Support System Defined•Training System Defined•Funding Updated And EAC Verified• Initial Transition Plans Completed• Initial Operational Characterization Completed
E6 – Element / Component Transition Decision Point(s)•System / Element / Component Testing Completed•Operational Characterization Completed•Support Systems Planned And Budgeted•Training Systems Planned And Budgeted•Transition Plans Completed And Funded•Production Plans Available•Updated Block Definition Available•Element / Component Certification Of Military Utility Completed•Service TOA Available
E7 – Block Configuration Of Military Utility•Military Utility Assessed And System / Element / Component Offered For Transition•BMDS Capability Demonstrated•LCC Estimate Indicates Long Term Affordability•RM&A And Support Requirements Characterized•Block Certification Of Military Utility Completed• Integration Of Declared Block Capability Into BMDS
26ms-104504 / 111802
System Performance Envelope
Modeling And
Simulation
System Performance Conditions
Sys
tem
Con
fid
ence
High
Low
Hardware-In-The-Loop
BUILDING CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN INTEGRATED APPROACH
• Flight And Ground Testing Only Address A Limited Portion Of The Operational Envelope
• Test Affordability Must Be Considered
• An Integrated, Comprehensive Simulation Program Improves Confidence That The System Will Meet Performance Requirements
CaptiveCarry
FlightTest
CaptiveCarry
27ms-104504 / 111802
BMD SYSTEM TEST BED
SBIRS LowSBIRS Low • Common Test Bed For Ground-And Sea-Based Elements
• Expandable To Boost And Terminal Segments
• Adds Realism To Test
• Allows Multiple Engagements
• Adds Additional Intercept Areas
• Enhances Ground Test Capability
• Adds SBIRS High And Low Testing
Defense Support ProgramDefense Support Program
Hawaii Test Facility
Upgraded Early Warning Radar
Long-Haul Fiber Communications
Network
Long-Haul Fiber Communications
Network
Cobra DaneCobra Dane
Fort GreelyFort Greely
AEGIS (Sensor)AEGIS (Sensor)
K
V
Vandenberg AFB- Target
Mobile Launched Target
Mobile Launched Target
(Dual)- Boost Vehicle
(Dual)- Boost Vehicle
AEGIS
Kwajalein- Ground Based Radar Prototype- Ground Based
Interceptor(Dual)(Dual)
Target And InterceptorTarget And Interceptor
Added Intercept Areas
Added Intercept Areas
Pacific Missile Range
28ms-104504 / 111802
CRITERIA FOR TRANSITION
Development TransitionProcurement And
Operations
• Mature Design
• Military Utility
• Funding Available
• Supportable
• Capability-Based ORD Approved
• Producible
• Affordable
• Technical Maturity
• Demonstrated Capability
• Military Capability
• Funding Available
29ms-104504 / 111802
BMDS ACQUISITION DECISIONSRDT&E
JTAMDO
MDSG
LiaisonTeams
Acquisition DecisionAdvisory
SEC
USD(AT&L)
SMD GMD ABL THAAD Other
Blocks
Service BoDsMDAIntegrationBoard
BMDAcquisition Executive
30ms-104504 / 111802
BMDS ACQUISITION DECISIONSPROCUREMENT AND OPERATIONS
JTAMDO
LiaisonTeams
Acquisition DecisionAdvisory
Defense AcquisitionExecutive
SMD GMD ABL THAAD Other
Blocks
Service BoDsBMD
Acquisition Executive
DAB
MDA Integration Board
31ms-104504 / 111802
MISSILE DEFENSESUPPORT GROUP
• Provides Streamlined Executive Review And Oversight
• Facilitates Rapid Decision-Making
• Advises Director, MDA And Supports SEC Decision-Making- Full Range Of Viewpoints
• Engages Key Service And Department Personnel With MDA Management
• Provides A Flexible Approach To Execute Capability-Based Acquisition
• USD(AT&L) – Chair • MDA• Services• USD(P)• USD(C)• Joint Staff• ASD(C3I)• DoD(GC)• D, OT&E• D, PA&E• C, CAIG
MDSG Members
32ms-104504 / 111802
MYTHS VERSUS REALITY
• BMDS Is Structured Around Greater Threat Definitions
- Expands Observed Threats With What Is Possible
- Enables Flexible BMDS Design To Match Capability
• MDA Tailored DoD 5000 With New Phases, New Reporting, New Oversight
• MDA Has Greater Oversight
- SEC, USD(AT&L), And OSD Review MDA Progress Monthly, Quarterly And Annually
• MDA Continuously Engages Warfighters To Understand Capability, Develop CONOPs, Shape Development Efforts
• MDA Did Not Abandon Requirements
- Changed The Process And Timing To Define Requirements
• BMDS Is Not Based On Threats
Myth Reality
• MDA Is Exempt From DoD 5000
• MDA Has Minimal Oversight
• Capability-Based Does Not Involve The Warfighter
• BMDS Does Not Have A Requirements Process