Dr Robert Senath Esuruku

Overview of the Presentation• Introduction

• The PCI’s (PCDP- PRDP-ACCS Linkage; the ACCS PCIs and the PRDP M&E framework.

• Methodology

• Consensus Panels, Key Informant Interviews , the leadership rapid appraisal, the Perceptions Survey and validation meetings

• Results

• Recommendations

Peace and Conflict Indicators (PCIs) • The PCIs are perceptual in nature and are 5 in numbers.

• Confidence in sustained peace and security.

• Local government responsiveness to community needs.

• Response of Dispute Resolution Mechanisms (DRMs) to SGBV and community –level security disruptions.

• Accessed to increased economic opportunities.

• Competition and grievances between the PRDP regions and between North and South of Uganda.

PCDP- PRDP-ACCS Linkage• In December 2009, Department for International Development

(DFID) approved £100 million five year grant, under the Post-Conflict Development Programme (PCDP) for Northern Uganda.

• PCDP is a comprehensive post-conflict recovery and development programme, under the over-arching framework of Peace Recovery and Development Plan (PRDP) for Northern Uganda.

• The mandate of Advisory Consortium on Conflict Sensitivity (ACCS) is to assist DFID to strengthen the potential of the PRDP to address the causes of conflict and contribute to sustainable peace and stability in Northern Uganda.

PCIs and PRDP Connection• Monitoring Peace and Conflict Indicators (PCIs) started

in 2011 in Lango and Acholi.

• After the 2011 survey, the PCIs were modified and adopted as part of the M&E framework for PRDP2.

• PRDP2 SO1; Consolidation of State Authority (sub objective 1- Functional local government administration: ‘% of respondents assessing that local government is responsive to community needs…..PCI 2.

Methodology • Quantitative and Qualitative (Survey, Consensus

Penal, Key Informant Interviews ).

• In 2011 and 2012, we had 2 consensus penal at district and 3 at sub county in each district.

• In 2013, we modified consensus penal (2 at the sub county level ~ rural and urban). This a measure to address mobilisation difficulties at the district level.

Methodology

• In 2011 and 2012, the consensus penal had only district officers and security services.

• In 2013 and 2014 local CSOs and cultural leaders were part of the consensus penal.

• 2011 to 2013, had a series of questions that guided discussions.

• In 2014 we introduced a presentation the PCIs results to guide consensus penal discussions.

Areas Covered and Sample Size– Severely Affected: Acholi (Gulu, Amuru, Kitgum,

Lamwo) and Karamoja (Abim, Moroto, Kotido)– Sporadically Affected: Lango (Otuke, Lira) and

West Nile (Adjumani, Yumbe, Arua, Zombo)– Spill Over Regions Bukedi (Tororo) Bunyoro

(Kiryandongo) Elgon (Mbale) Teso (Soroti, Amuria)– Control (Mbarara, Kasese, Masaka)– Sample size 3982 in 2012, 3972 in 2013 and 4,233

in 2014

PCI 1: Confidence in sustained peace and securityFeeling safe and secure in the community

Annual Increase per region

Region Av. Change P-Value

Control 4.0 0.642Severely Affected 2.5 0.212Sporadically Affected 2.0 0.179Spill Over 1.5 0.121

Guns have fallen silent after 20 years of Anguish Crimes in the severely and sporadically affected regions have

reduced. People can move freely Few incidences of explosion of abandoned ordnances Conflicts between humans and spirits Conflicts between humans and animals Petty robbery Fear of transition

PCI 1: Confidence in sustained peace and securityConfidence in sustained peace and security

Region Av. Change P-Value

Severely Affected 9.0 0.081Control 8.5 0.394Spill Over 5.5 0.099Sporadically Affected 5.0 0.212

Encouragement from NGOs, political, religious and cultural leaders.

Presence of government institutions (Police, Judiciary, Army).

Disarmament programme in Karamoja .Return of business in Arua, Gulu, Lira , Soroti... Fewer incidents of security disruptions (Lamwo, Moyo,

Elegu, Zombo, Arua , Adjumani).Kony is still aliveConflict in South Sudan

PCI 2 Local Government Responsiveness to community needsDo the Local governments proved Social services in your communities?

Region Av. Change P-Value

Severely Affected 6.0 0.418Sporadically Affected 0.5 0.846Control 0.0 1.000Spill Over -3.5 0.691

There is infrastructural development (schools, health centres, feeder roads .

Extension of electricity and water points. Communities have not been involved in planning,

implementation and monitoring of projects.Some local governments reported that they have been

sidelined by the OPM and line ministries i.e. construction of houses for Acholi Chiefs, police posts.

Generally there is poor coordination.

PCI 3 SGBV and community level DRMsPersonal experience of SGBV

Region Av. Change P-ValueControl -27.5 0.333Sporadically Affected -11.5 0.079Spill Over -11.5 0.048Severely Affected -8.0 0.136

Key drivers of SGBV include alcohol and drug abuse.Polygamy in West Nile, Teso and Karamoja.The belief that such acts are normal especially in the

control region and spill over .Moral decay and lack of parental guidance especially in

the PRDP regions. Men reclaiming and asserting their lost masculinities .New culture – Female husbands.

PCI 3 SGBV and community level DMRsWas the dispute resolved satisfactorily?

Region Av. Change P-ValueSpill Over 12.5 0.498Sporadically Affected 8.5 0.452Severely Affected 5.0 0.433Control -7.5 0.512

Trust in clan, religious, cultural and lower local government institutions.

There were material gains and love .Perpetrators failure to respect ruling. Failure by the DRM machinery to summon the

perpetrator. In the control region, DRMs machineries ask for money.

PCI3b Response of DRMs to community level security disruptions

Personal involvement in conflict

Region Av. Change P-Value

Severely Affected -6.5 0.242Spill Over -6.5 0.374Control -4.5 0.198Sporadically Affected -2 0.179

NGOs, religious and cultural leaders advocate for peace.

We are tired of conflicts. We fear law enforcement officers. Its time to rebuild our lives. They cannot effectively resolve conflicts with spirits. Alcohol and drug abuse. Rampant land conflicts. Poverty and lack of employment.

PCI3b Response of DRMs to community level security disruptions

Access to justice by people in the community

Region Av. Change P-value

Control 14.0 0.179Severely Affected 12.0 0.102Spill Over 11.5 0.172Sporadically Affected 7.0 0.293

Formal justice system are available They are open to everyone NGOs help us to access justice There is discrimination and bribery especially in the

PRDP regions. Unjust court officials, High legal fees and Cases take to long to be resolved.

PCI 4 Economic OpportunitiesAccess to economic opportunities

Region Av change P-ValueControl 3.5 0.052Severely Affected 1.0 0.846Sporadically Affected -1.5 0.593Spill Over -2.0 0.454

Arua, Gulu, Lira and Soroti are booming, but we are spectators.

Investors are mainly outsider. We have limited access to economic opportunities. Agricultural products do not fetch a lot of money and

yet are labour intensive . We have limited skills . We are outcompeted by those who have connections

and are exposed.

PCI 4 Economic OpportunitiesSatisfaction with government efforts in responding to the economic needs of people

Region Av change P-Value

Severely Affected 8.5 0.065

Control 7.0 0.249

Spill Over 5.5 0.099

Sporadically Affected 5.0 -

CDD, NAADS and NUSAF are good programees, but ltd. Limited vocational education services. Limited employable skills. Limited markets for agricultural products, especially in

the PRDP regions. Limited employment opportunities.

PCI 5 Competition and Grievance between North & South Level of competition and grievance between the North & South

Region Av change P-Value

Control 8.0 0.046

Spill Over 3.0 0.740

Sporadically Affected 1.5 0.846

Severely Affected -0.5 0.948

Political marginalisation High levels of poverty Social exclusion. Better infrastructure in South More vibrant economic activities in the South

PCI 5 Competition and Grievance between North and SouthIs the government doing enough to bridge the gap between the north and south of the country?

Region Av change P-ValueControl 11.5 0.357Sporadically Affected 2.5 0.771Spill Over 2.5 0.846Severely Affected 1.0 0.891

There are policy frameworks and guidelines There are some state machinery (Government officials,

police , judiciary Perceived sense of Marginalisation (political,

economic and social…). High levels of poverty High disease burden (HIV/AIDs, Hepatitis A,B,C,D,E ,

Nodding disease Unresolved border and land conflicts

Conclusions and Recommendations• Concluding Remarks– Does investment in infrastructure and state authority

alone address the root causes of the conflicts in NU?– What will happen with PRDP if the implementation

does not balance community needs with government interests?

– Do you think the implantation of PRDP will achieve its purpose if it is spread beyond the war affected districts?

– What roles should OPM and line ministries play in the implementation of PRDP?

Conclusions and Recommendations• Recommendations – Graduate PRDP from a plan to a robust post conflict

development programme.– PRDP should be driven by realities of the war affected

communities.– It should have a strong focus to address conflict

drivers. – OPM and line ministries should provide oversight

function.– The implementation of PRDP should be done by local

governments, private sector and civil society orgnisations.