Conservation Objectives – 1st Draft

Overall Conservation Goal:Sustain the distribution, diversity, and abundance of native landbird populations and their habitats in Ontario's portion of Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 13

Objectives of the BCR 13 Plan:

• Present a Species Assessment for Landbirds• Identify Priority Species and Habitats• Present measurable Population & Habitat Objectives• Set out recommended Actions to achieve Objectives• Indicate where Conservation Actions most useful• Give Monitoring Objectives & Key Research Needs• Set Timeframe & Mechanism for Evaluation• Communicate Landbird Conservation Needs &

Recommended Actions

High Level Conservation Objectives:

• Reverse Declines of most Priority Species• Stop Declines of Priority Grassland Species & Guild• Recover Endangered & Threatened Species• Maintain Distribution of Priority Species in BCR 13• Ensure Habitat of sufficient Quality & Quantity to

meet population & distribution objectives• Monitor Trends & Distribution of all Landbirds, and

their Habitats• Research Reasons for Declines, Landbird Needs,

Impacts & Success of Actions

Specific Population ObjectivesExample for Forest Birds

Population Trend & Size Objectives:

SpeciesTrend

ObjectiveBBS Index Objective

Pop'n Target

Black-billed Cuckoo Reverse Decline 1.4 63,000Red-headed Woodpecker Reverse Decline 0.63 24,000Northern Flicker Reverse Decline 6.5 240,000Wood Thrush Maintain / Increase 2.4 150,000Canada Warbler Maintain / Increase 0.11 3,500Veery Maintain 3.3 180,000Rose-breasted Grosbeak Maintain 4.8 140,000Long-eared Owl Establish TrendCerulean Warbler Establish TrendLouisiana Waterthrush Establish Trend

Trend Objective: Based on BBS long-term trends (1968-2002)

SpeciesBCR 13 Trend

(% / yr)

BCR 13 Ontario Trend

Black-billed Cuckoo -2.3 -2.1Red-headed Woodpecker -6.0 -6.5Northern Flicker -3.2 -3.1Veery -0.5 0.0Wood Thrush -1.0 1.0Canada Warbler -4.7 -0.1Rose-breasted Grosbeak 0.3 -1.0Red-shouldered Hawk -0.6Acadian Flycatcher -3.7Bay-breasted Warbler 17.8Cerulean Warbler 3.8Louisiana Waterthrush 0.3Hooded Warbler 6.4Rusty Blackbird 45.0

BBS Index Objective: Track progress against Trend Objective

Red-headed Woodpecker - BBS Count Index & Objective

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Red Line – Annual Indices calculated by BBS Trend Program (B. Collins)Green Line – Index Objective, = average of 1968-1977 indices

Population Target: Direct translation of BBS IndexIllustrates magnitude of Action neededCould substitute other estimates if available

Comparison of Population EstimatesBCR 13 Ontario

y = 2.20x0.96

R2 = 0.94

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000BBS pop'n estimate

Atla

s po

p'n

estim

ate

Guild Trend Objectives: Sum of all Forest Birds, BBS stops

Guild Trend Objective BBS Index ObjectiveForest Birds Maintain 39.7 (1968-77 avg)

Woodland Birds BBS Stop Index, BCR 13 Ontario

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Distribution Objectives: Based on Atlas change (81-85 vs 01-03)

• Reverse Losses of Priority forest species in each subregion• Maintain distribution of priority species without losses• Maintain distribution of forest bird guild, in each subregion

Distribution Objectives: Changes by BCR 13 subregion

Forest SpeciesAtlas

Squares 2001-03

Expected per 1st Atlas

Difference BCR 13

Diff. SWest

Diff. Central

Diff. East

Diff. NWest

Hooded Warbler 59 14 45 15 29 +Acadian Flycatcher 29 23 6 + +

Bay-breasted Warbler 9 6 + _ 5 + _

Prothonotary Warbler 15 12 + + + _

Rusty Blackbird 8 6 + + + + _

Black-billed Cuckoo 502+ 536 -? -? + -? +

Kirtland's Warbler 0 1 _ _

Northern Flicker 707 710 _ _ _ _ +

Louisiana Waterthrush 21 27 _ _ _ +

Rose-breasted Grosbeak 679 687 _ + _ _ -6Red-shouldered Hawk 146 159 _ _ _ _ _

Wood Thrush 633 653 -20 _ _ -12 +

Cerulean Warbler 40 61 -21 _ -11 _ _

Canada Warbler 179 229 -50 _ _ -21 _

Long-eared Owl 54 112 -58 _ -18 -37 _

Veery 555 636 -81 -43 -32 _ -6Northern Saw-whet Owl 66 155 -89 -7 -29 -60 _

Red-headed Woodpecker 184 507 -323 -127 -132 -45 -13

Distribution Objectives: Targets by BCR 13 subregion

Species BCR 13 SWest Central East NWest

Northern Flicker 99.5% 100% 99.7% 99.5% 97%Rose-breasted Grosbeak 96% 93% 99% 99% 90%Wood Thrush 92% 94% 93% 96% 56%Veery 89% 82% 91% 92% 100%Black-billed Cuckoo 75% 71% 74% 85% 64%Red-headed Woodpecker 71% 91% 76% 40% 59%Canada Warbler 32% 22% 38% 28% 58%Red-shouldered Hawk 22% 8% 26% 32% 32%Northern Saw-whet Owl 22% 5% 17% 51% 24%Long-eared Owl 16% 9% 13% 33% 5%Cerulean Warbler 9% 11% 9% 6% 3%Louisiana Waterthrush 4% 8% 3% 0.5%Bay-breasted Warbler 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 8%Rusty Blackbird 0.8% 1% 1% 3%- targets percents are from 1981-85 Atlas, squares with > 20 hours effort

Targets for % Atlas Squares with Breeding Evidence

Distribution Objectives: Changes in Forest Guild

Distribution Objectives: Forest Guild

Guild BCR 13 SWest Central East NWest

Forest Birds 28.1 24.1 28.9 30.2 35.2- based on 1981-85 Atlas, squares with > 20 hours effort

Target number of species per Atlas square

Forest Species per Atlas square with 20+ hours of effort: 1981-85: 28.1 2001-03: 28.8 Change: +0.7

Options for Habitat Objectives:

Amount of Habitat:• Desired change in Land Cover Relative to Current Situation• Total land needed to meet population objectives• Proportion of land needed to ensure species richness

Patch Size – for Core "source" areas, other satellite habitats

Buffer Sizes – Width of buffers around important habitats– Types of appropriate land uses in buffers

Where to Locate Core Habitats

Current Land Cover:

General TotalLand Cover Southwest Central Eastern Northwest BCR 13Marsh 1% <1% 2% 2% 1%Swamp 1% 4% 7% 2% 3%Dense Forest 12% 25% 32% 52% 23%Sparse Forest 1% 3% 3% 20% 3%Fields 2% 13% 22% 18% 12%Crops 81% 50% 32% 3% 54%Urban 2% 5% 2% <1% 3%

Type of TotalForest Cover Southwest Central Eastern Northwest BCR 13Deciduous 80% 58% 60% 32% 59%Mixed 12% 20% 25% 40% 23%Coniferous 8% 22% 15% 27% 18%

BCR 13 subregions

BCR 13 subregions

By subregion:

Possible Objective:Increase Total Forest in SW

from 14% to 20%

How Much Habitat: Estimates from BBS / BBC

PrioritySpecies bcr13 ON best 10% % bcr km2 BBS best 10% BB Census

Forest BirdsNorthern Flicker 3.4 30 30% 24,000 4.7 9.8Rose-breasted Grosbeak 3.7 39 13% 11,000 6.1 17.7Wood Thrush 2.8 59 9% 8,000 9.3 22.6Black-billed Cuckoo 1.1 27 9% 7,000 4.3 2.3Veery 3.9 79 8% 7,000 12.6 23.1Red-headed Woodpecker 0.2 39 2% 2,000 6.2 1.4Canada Warbler 0.1 38 0% 300 6.0 9.3

Density (pr/km2)Est. Habitat NeedBBS avg / rte

Possible Objective:

Minimum of 24,000 km2 of forest cover (30% of BCR13) to support full suite of priority species, with at least 8,000 km2 mature forest to support target breeding populations of Wood Thrushes and other forest interior birds

Buffer Widths / Types:Ø1 km buffer of non-intensive land use around core forests or

other natural areas of high importance to priority species

Ø240 m buffer around larger wetlands, 30m around streams

Patch Size:Core Areas > 1,000 ha in each subregion

- source areas for full suite of birdsAdditional areas > 200 ha, minimum 500m width

- productive for area-sensitive speciesAdditional smaller patches in surrounding matrix

Where: Relative Abundance of Forest Species, usingAtlas Point Counts