Pathways to Progress

A Strategy for Steering, Cheering and Persevering

To Achieve Oregon’s Higher Education Goals

Tim Nesbitt, Chair, Higher Education Coordinating Commission

Ben Cannon, Executive Director, HECC

March 11, 2014

2February 2014

Goal

By 2025, 40% of adult Oregonians will hold a bachelor’s or advanced degree, 40% will have an associate’s degree or

a meaningful postsecondary certificate, and all adult Oregonians

will hold a high school diploma.

3February 2014

Earnings and unemployment rates by educational attainment

12.4

8.3

7.7

6.2

4.5

3.5

2.1

2.5

Less than a hs diploma

High school diploma

Some college, no degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Professional degree

Doctoral degree

24,492

33,904

37,804

40,820

55,432

67,600

90,220

84,448

Unemployment rate in 2012 (%) Median annual earnings in 2012 ($)

All workers: $42,380All workers: 6.8%

Doctoral degree

Professional degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Some college, no degree

High school diploma

Less than a high school diploma

4February 2014

• 11,000 more high school graduates

• 480,000 more adults with an Associate’s or a certificate

• 189,000 more adults with at least a Bachelor’s degree

To reach 40-40-20 in 2012 Oregon would have needed:

All working-age_x000d_adults (2012)

Goal (2025)

9%

43%

20%

17%

40%

31% 40%

Less than HS High school_x000d_completion

Associate's_x000d_or credential Bachelor's_x000d_or higher

5February 2014

6February 2014

Governance structure

Old Paradigm New Paradigm

The public system is managed to sustain existing institutions

The public system is organized to maximize student success

State budgeting constraints encourage “opaque” cost shifts to institutions and students

Clarify impacts of state budgeting constraints on institutions and students

State provides resources to institutions based on enrollment

State provides resources to institutions to maximize learning outcomes and student success

Centralized governance and management of public universities

Centralized coordination with local governance and management of universities and colleges

7February 2014

HECC Action PlanBroaden the pathways to our 40-40

goalMake the pathways accessible,

affordable and supportive for students

“Steer” the higher education enterprise

“Cheer” the promotion of college completion and career readiness

8February 2014

Broaden the Pathways to our 40-40 Goal

HECC Action Items:Refine 40-40 goals and develop key

metrics to keep us on trackDevelop profile of students to be served

and needs to be metWork with OWIB on “middle 40” strategiesConstruct budget recommendations for

institutional capacity and student support

9February 2014

Make the Pathways Accessible, Affordable and Supportive for Students

HECC Action Items: Monitor tuition policy across all of our post-

secondary institutions and approve/reject university increases above 5%.

Develop and consider recommending options for enhancing affordability, including Pay It Forward, free community college, and redesign of the Oregon Opportunity Grant.

Design mechanisms to guide and coach students through post-secondary education, including web-based portal.

10February 2014

“Steer” the Higher Education Enterprise

HECC Action Items: Develop and implement distribution formula and

advance funding policy recommendations Approve university missions and establish

program approval process Develop evaluation criteria for university boards Launch Credit for Prior Learning pilot Use convening authority to promote common

standards and assessment Use convening authority to promote textbook

affordability

11February 2014

“Cheer” the Promotion of College Completion and Career Readiness

HECC Action Items:Compile inventory of public attitudes

about post-secondary education at the state and national levels

Develop and implement an external communications plan

Launch FAFSA completion pilot project to maximize Pell grants for Oregon students

12February 2014

The Challenge• Fundamental challenge: Existing attainment gaps

• Systemic challenge: “Leaky” education pipeline

• Demographic challenge: Increasing share of students facing significant barriers to success

• Economic challenge: Increasing poverty and stagnant middle class incomes

• Fiscal challenge: Declining rate of growth in state support and increasing competition for general funds

• Increasing numbers of working-age Oregonians without a high school diploma and college degree

13February 2014

Attainment Varies Across Subpopulations

Total

Hispanic/_x000d_Latino

American Indian/_x000d_Alaska Native

Black/African_x000d_American

Asian/Pacific_x000d_Islander

White

9%

38%

16%

8%

11%

6%

24%

24%

37%

22%

15%

24%

27%

18%

29%

36%

20%

28%

9%

6%

10%

12%

9%

9%

31%

13%

8%

22%

45%

33%

Less than HS High school_x000d_completer Some collegeAssociate's Bachelor's or better

14February 2014

Earnings Differential by Field: Oregon vs. USS

ocia

l Sci

ence

s

Are

a, E

thni

c, a

n

Phi

loso

phy

and

R

His

tory

Eng

lish

Lang

uage

Ling

uist

ics

and

Bio

logy

and

Life

Mat

hem

atic

s an

d

Fin

e A

rts

Libe

ral A

rts

and

Inte

rdis

cipl

inar

Env

ironm

ent

and

Arc

hite

ctur

e

Crim

inal

Jus

tice

Med

ical

and

Hea

l

Com

mun

icat

ions

The

olog

y an

d R

el

Psy

chol

ogy

Bus

ines

s

Com

pute

r an

d In

f

Fam

ily a

nd C

onsu

Phy

sica

l Sci

ence

Edu

catio

n A

dmin

i

Eng

inee

ring

Eng

inee

ring

Tec

h

Agr

icul

ture

Pub

lic A

ffai

rs,

Phy

sica

l Fitn

ess

-$25,000

-$20,000

-$15,000

-$10,000

-$5,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

For nearly all fields, Oregon workers earn less than their US counterparts

The differences are particularly large for social science and humanities.

15February 2014

Philoso

phy and R

Area, E

thnic, an

Libera

l Arts

and

Interdisc

iplinar

Fine A

rts

Engli

sh La

nguag

e

Psychology

Mathem

atics

and

Educati

on

Family

and Consu

Public Affair

s,

Medica

l and Hea

l

Communications

History

Archite

cture

Theo

logy an

d Rel

Lingu

istics

and

Socia

l Scie

nces

Biology an

d Life

Physical

Scien

ce

Envir

onment a

nd

Criminal

Justice

Physical

Fitness

Business

Agricu

lture

Computer an

d Inf

Engin

eerin

g

Engin

eerin

g Tech

46%51% 52% 52% 53% 55% 55% 57% 57%

60% 60% 60% 61% 62% 62% 62% 64% 64% 64% 65% 65% 65% 66%70%

74% 74%79%

89%

Share of Oregonians Who Work Full-Time by Degree Field

United States Share: 71% Oregon Share: 63%

16February 2014

OUS Biennial State Appropriation and FTE Enrollment

1987 through 2013-15

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

CPI-Adjusted Appropriation FTE Enrollment

Dol

lars

in M

illio

ns

Bien

nial

FTE

Enr

ollm

ent

17February 2014

Community College Biennial State Appropriation and FTE Enrollment

1995 through 2013-15

1995-97

1997-99

1999-01

2001-03

2003-05

2005-07

2007-09

2009-11

2011-13

2013-150

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

CPI-Adjusted Appropriation FTE Enrollment

Dol

lars

in M

illio

ns

Bien

nial

FTE

Enr

ollm

ent

18February 2014

A few ongoing questions and considerations

• Community colleges contribute not just to the post-secondary “40-40,” but to the secondary “20,” by virtue of GED programs, adult high schools, middle colleges and dual enrollment.

• Research matters. If we focus only on undergraduate student success, the HECC may ignore one of the most important aspects of being a research university.

• Our focus should be squarely on the educational attainment of Oregonians. The benefits and trade-offs of relying on out-of-state students to subsidize in-state students deserves more attention.

• What explains the increase in the costs of higher education, beyond the impacts of cost shifts to students?

• Sometimes the unavailability of certain courses is a greater barrier than tuition/fees. Thus, the relationship between affordability for students and the capacity of our institutions needs to be examined.

• The quality of educational offerings should not be an arms’ length concern for the HECC.

19February 2014

The state’s 40-40-20 goals commit us to a future in which all Oregonians will complete

their education and gain the ability to contribute to our society and economy.

Success will require more than good intentions or the construct of aspirational

goals; it will require reinvention, recommitment and reinvestment.